1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc., based on the defined rating standards in the report [269]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical factors affecting crude oil will gradually fade, and the market will focus on the US trade war and OPEC+ production plans. Crude oil is expected to remain stable, while the chemical industry may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. Most chemical products have positive basis, and as July approaches, the convergence of futures and spot prices will support these products [1][2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry should be viewed through an oscillating perspective, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The rebound strength is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. After the geopolitical concerns ease, the oil price will return to the supply - surplus fundamental line, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and LPG is expected to oscillate weakly. The overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the market may return to fundamental - driven [9]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of production increase is strong, and the asphalt futures price will continue to decline following crude oil. The asphalt price is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and the fuel oil futures price may continue to decline under pressure. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price will decline following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, and is expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations at a low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: The situation between Iran and Israel has eased, and methanol is expected to oscillate. The support for the futures price from the previous geopolitical situation has weakened, and the domestic market is relatively stable [19]. - **Urea**: Relying on exports to balance the domestic supply - demand gap, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the export situation is favorable [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The supply shock is gradually increasing, but the inventory level is low, and the probability of a downward trend is small. It is recommended that investors conduct short - term range operations [14]. - **PX**: The supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamentals are good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term due to production - cut news [11]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the current situation is still okay, and the cost is relatively strong. It is expected to follow the cost side and show a relatively strong performance in the short term [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is in a healthy state, and the spot processing fee has increased slightly. The processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the upward movement of crude oil drives the energy and chemical market [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The price follows the raw materials, and the production cut has started. The further compression space of the spot processing fee is limited [17]. - **PP**: The oil price oscillates, and PP will follow in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively weak [25]. - **Plastic**: The geopolitical premium has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [24]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and styrene has declined. The supply is returning, and the demand is weakening, but the inventory level is low [13]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is expected to oscillate. The cost center is rising, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The dynamic cost is rising, and caustic soda will oscillate temporarily. The supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 1.17 with a change of - 0.08 [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 242 with a change of 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 98360 [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 246 with a change of - 21 [30].