Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as production restrictions and real - estate policies. The short - term trend of the steel market is expected to be a narrow adjustment. The iron ore market is affected by supply recovery and demand fluctuations, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory trend. The coking coal and coke markets are in a recovery stage, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, with cost support but limited upward drive [1]. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot prices rose. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction control during the important national meeting. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" was issued to adjust and optimize real - estate policies. The short - term steel futures market may have a narrow adjustment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rose. The global shipping volume has recovered, and the demand is in the off - season. The iron water output has a small fluctuation. After the post - holiday inspection, the steel mills' resumption of production and restocking needs should be concerned. The ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose. The main producing areas' coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coking enterprises' production recovery is slow. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose. The coking enterprises' production is normal, and the inventory pressure is gradually weakening. Some steel mills have received emission reduction notices, and the procurement demand is general. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" boosted market sentiment. The South African semi - carbonate price rose slightly. The cost has support, but the upward drive is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" boosted market sentiment. The cost support is slightly weak. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 5 - 10 spread of rebar being - 37.0 with a month - on - month increase of 8.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different changes, for example, the 05 - contract basis of rebar is 134.0 with a month - on - month decrease of 49.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have different changes, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3210.0 with no month - on - month change [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread data of different varieties are presented, such as the rebar's disk profit being - 45.6 with a month - on - month increase of 9.4, and the coil - rebar spread being 160.0 with a month - on - month decrease of 8.0 [4]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][26][28][31][33][35][37]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [38][39][40][41]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trend charts of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][47]. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [49]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [50].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's recent approval of certain rare earth export applications to Japan, despite earlier export controls, reflects a nuanced approach to export regulation rather than a concession or softening of stance [1][6][30] - The approval of rare earth exports is based on compliance with specific regulations, emphasizing the distinction between civilian and military uses, and ensuring that only applications meeting these criteria are approved [10][12][28] - China's export control policy aims to enhance national security while maintaining a balance with commercial cooperation, showcasing a responsible global image [24][30][32] Group 2 - Japan's high-tech manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, and the uncertainty surrounding supply due to export controls places Japanese companies in a difficult position regarding transparency and operational continuity [20][22] - The recent adjustments in trade procedures, including increased documentation requirements for exports to Japan, indicate a shift in the trade relationship influenced by political interactions [16][18] - China's refined export control measures are expected to drive the transformation of its rare earth industry, enhancing its competitive edge in the global market [26][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - As the holiday approaches, the inventory of steel products accumulates rapidly, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market shows weakness. The total inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. There are disturbances on the coal supply side, with more coal mines taking holidays before the Spring Festival, but the coal - coke replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand support is limited, resulting in wide - range oscillations at a low level in the futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices. Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and there is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the holiday, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill resumption still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [4] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal will continue to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will still be restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to the influence of capital sentiment [4] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [4] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The market transactions are light around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will run at a low level around the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: Before the holiday, the supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market shows weakness. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill resumption rhythm is accelerating, but the five major steel products' output is decreasing month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. There is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space is limited [10] - Iron ore: The hot metal output has slightly rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased. The global shipment volume has slightly declined month - on - month. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, the demand is stable, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [10] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are seasonally decreasing, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [12] - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the replenishment is basically completed. The supply has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is in a healthy supply - demand structure. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market will follow the coking coal [13][14] - Coking coal: The middle and upstream are de - stocking before the festival, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The supply is expected to decline before the holiday, the import is at a high level, the demand is decreasing, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely [15][16] - Glass: The contradictions before the holiday are limited, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has disturbance expectations, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] - Soda ash: The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has rebounded month - on - month, the demand is weakening, the supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17][19] - Manganese silicon: The cost is firm, and the post - holiday inventory is expected to increase. The upstream inventory is high, the cost is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply is strong. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate around the cost [19][20] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and the cost support still exists. The cost support is strengthening, the demand is weakening, the supply is at a low level, and it is expected that the futures price will run at a low level around the cost [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market continues to be weak. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage nears its end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment gradually weakens, and the futures market performs weakly. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures price. Overall, as the winter storage of furnace materials nears its end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster. The futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the Spring Festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally [2] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Core Logic**: The growth space of coke supply is limited in the future, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Outlook**: The coke supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Coking Coal** - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. The cost of manganese silicon has little adjustment recently, the demand support for the price weakens, and the market inventory level may further increase [15] - **Outlook**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the change of manufacturers' production control intensity [15][16] - **Silicon Iron** - **Core Logic**: The downstream procurement rhythm slows down, the market trading atmosphere fades, the cost adjustment range of silicon iron is limited, the support of steel - making demand for the price weakens, the market trading activity is low during the holiday, and the daily output of silicon iron remains at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the market trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the resumption of production trends in the main production areas [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to decline in the long - term, the downstream demand is weak, the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral. The overall replenishment ability is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory suppresses the glass valuation in the futures market [13] - **Outlook**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - stream and downstream inventories are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [13][15] - **Soda Ash** - **Core Logic**: The supply increases month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the expected decline in glass daily melting, the downstream procurement of light soda ash has little change, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation further intensifies. The upstream has no obvious production reduction recently, and the spot price may return to the price - cut channel [13] - **Outlook**: The cold repair of glass increases, the short - term supply stops production and increases, but the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15] 3.5 Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill profitability is stable, the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the iron water output increases slightly month - on - month, the electric furnace begins to stop production one after another, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, the demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is emerging, with the social inventory and rebar inventory accumulating significantly [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end in the off - season is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, the futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [7] 3.6 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: The global shipping volume decreases slightly month - on - month due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. The iron water output increases marginally, the rigid demand is still stable, the steel mill replenishment accelerates before the Spring Festival, and the support for the price may gradually weaken as the replenishment progresses. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is still increasing. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the futures market is under pressure [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, the futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro expectations after the Spring Festival. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [7][8] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel is expected to decline seasonally, the demand decreases significantly, and the inventory of steel enterprises increases [9] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] 3.8 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [104] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on February 9, 2026, is 1935.90, with a daily decline of 0.78%, a decline of 1.72% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.10% in the past month, and a decline of 2.03% since the beginning of the year [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has unclear drivers and is mainly in a state of oscillation. The black - sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and the market provides little tradable information. The demand support for the market is limited, and the actual resumption of production in steel mills may be slow. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - The sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has warmed up, and the prices of the two silicons are oscillating upwards. Although the fundamentals are under pressure in the near term, with high supply and weak demand, the short - term market sentiment is dominant, and the prices may be in a strong - side oscillation [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in the off - season with insufficient drivers and are oscillating following the market narrative. After the pre - holiday replenishment ends, downstream will start a period of active destocking. It is recommended to cash in the spot at high prices before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [5]. - The iron ore market is supported in the short - term by "resumption of production + replenishment", but there is long - term pressure from inventory. In the short - term, it is in an oscillating and strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to enter short positions at the pressure level for medium - and long - term investment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The weekend spot market was weakly stable, with some varieties dropping about 10 yuan. The market is gradually entering the holiday - closing state, and the liquidity in the spot market is shrinking. The steel demand is seasonally weakening, and the support from demand for the market is limited. Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate in the market through the basis. The iron - water production may remain stable before the Spring Festival and has room for resumption later. The downstream replenishment is approaching the end. In terms of strategies, a unilateral oscillating approach can be adopted, and the hot - rolled coil basis is conducive to the entry of spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The domestic economy is resilient, the real - estate market shows short - term signs of stabilization and recovery, the sector rotation effect is strengthened, and market funds are abundant. However, the direct and terminal demand is generally flat, and the demand side is difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants have poor profits, but the production is still relatively high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The domestic macro - policies are accelerating, and the industrial policies have an impact on the supply and cost of the two silicons. In the near term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the short - term market sentiment is dominant, and the prices may be in a strong - side oscillation [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal auction has many failed bids, with more price drops than increases. On the Mongolian coal side, the customs clearance has slowed down due to port storage pressure, and the market trading is cold. On the futures side, affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the strong market sentiment in the first half of the week, the black sector was strongly oscillating. The market has entered the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is no obvious upward or downward drive. After the pre - holiday replenishment ends, the downstream will start active destocking. It is recommended to cash in the spot at high prices before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's hot - metal production is basically stable at 227.98 tons (- 0.12). The steel mill profitability has slightly declined, and according to the maintenance plan, the hot - metal production will continue to rise significantly in February. The daily average ore removal volume at 47 ports has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short - term support for the iron ore price comes from the expectation of the steel mill's resumption of production and pre - holiday replenishment, but the long - term pressure comes from the import inventory. In the short - term, it is in an oscillating and strong pattern, and in the long - term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is recommended to enter short positions at the pressure level for medium - and long - term investment [6]. Investment Strategies - For steel, use unilateral interval operation or short - term long - band operation, roll the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, take short - term long positions at low prices [7]. - For coking coal and coke, cash in the spot at appropriate times before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [7]. - For iron ore, place short positions at the pressure level [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the market is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is an expectation of a low - level upward movement in the prices of furnace materials [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually rising. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the ground still need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decline due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the previous rally, the driving force for the futures market to continue rising is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost push of manganese silicon is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited. However, the current futures price valuation is low, and under the high - cost support, the risk of excessive short - selling should be guarded against [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the trend of the sector [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, the price center will still decline, and capacity de - stocking will be promoted [3]. 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is weakening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill复产 rhythm slows down, the iron water output decreases, and the five major steel products' output growth slows down. The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The inventory is still being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is not obvious, and the inventory level is moderately high. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, arrivals have declined, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has rigid support, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure expectation has increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has increased significantly, and the supply has recovered. The electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption also keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate following the finished products [10]. - **Coke**: The steel mill's rigid demand has declined, and the implementation of the price increase has been postponed. The cost side support is strong, but the steel mill's iron water output has slightly decreased, so the price increase implementation is delayed. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising well, and the futures market is oscillating. The domestic supply is stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The demand side has seen an increase in winter restocking by coking enterprises, and the upstream coal mine inventory has been continuously digested. The spot price still has upward momentum, but the futures market's upward driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Glass**: The futures price has corrected, and the spot and futures markets have started to sell. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory in the middle reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, it will oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price has fallen at a low level, and the futures premium has decreased. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensifying. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is loosening, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The cost push is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the futures price is running weakly. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is difficult to achieve high - level inventory digestion. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it follows the sector's weakening. The market has weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cost is at a relatively high level, which supports the price bottom. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is at a low level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to follow the black sector, and the downward space is limited [17]. 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28% [103]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 19, 2026, has a daily increase or decrease of - 0.82%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 1.37%, a one - month increase or decrease of + 1.16%, and an increase or decrease since the beginning of the year of + 1.07% [105].