投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-06 供给收缩预期增强，⿊⾊延续偏强⾛势 ⿊⾊基本⾯并未发⽣明显变化，各环节库存压⼒也不⼤。⼀⽅⾯， 重要活动前限产时间已经临近，钢价⾃⾝有较强⽀撑；另⼀⽅⾯， 煤焦供给尚未完全恢复，库存也在去化过程中，容易受到减产传闻等 利好消息影响，盘⾯价格再度领涨。后续也不排除宏观利好消息持续 影响可能。近期⿊⾊波动加剧，在现货压⼒显现前价格有进⼀步反弹 机会。 黑色基本面并未发生明显变化，各环节库存压力也不大。一方面， 重要活动前限产时间已经临近，钢价自身有较强支撑；另一方面， 煤焦供给尚未完全恢复，库存也在去化过程中，容易受到减产传闻等 利好消息影响，盘面价格再度领涨。后续也不排除宏观利好消息持续 影响可能。近期黑色波动加剧，在现货压力显现前价格有进一步反弹 机会。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到港量下降，符合 预期；需求端钢企盈利率再度增加，但部分地区或受降雨影响，钢企 铁水产量下降，同比保持高位。由于到港偏低、需求高位，铁矿石45 港、压港和厂内均有不同程度去库。铁矿需求高位，库存去化，基本 面利空 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-30 限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周⼀⼤跌后，昨⽇京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上⾏，随后夜 盘双焦增仓⼤涨，势头强劲。⽬前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资⾦进 出加剧盘⾯波动。产业⽅⾯，基本⾯变化不⼤延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游⼼态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期⿊⾊波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，⻓期⻆度看随着交易重⼼回到基本⾯有⾼位回落⻛险。 ⿊⾊：限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周一大跌后，昨日京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上行，随后夜 盘双焦增仓大涨，势头强劲。目前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资金进 出加剧盘面波动。产业方面，基本面变化不大延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游心态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，长期角度看随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-25 宏观暖⻛频频，⿊⾊商品表现分化 昨⽇焦煤和玻纯涨幅较⼤，市场氛围热烈，铁矿和钢材表现则略显乏 ⼒。7⽉以来连续⼤涨使得市场⼼态趋于谨慎，尤其重要会议结果尚 未有定论，资⾦偏向避险为主。不过价格法修正草案提到治理"内卷 式"竞争以及完善低价倾销认定标准，对⼤宗商品整体形成利好。 产业⽅⾯，由于中游期现等环节集中补库，现货资源偏紧，不过终端 板块未看到明显转势，利空或将逐步体现在淡旺季转换时钢材累库压 ⼒上，随着交易重⼼回到基本⾯形成向下拐点。 ⿊⾊：宏观暖⻛频频，⿊⾊商品表现分化 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到港量下降，符合 预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁水产量微降，同比保持高 位，支撑矿石需求。铁矿石45个港口库存持稳，压港增加，总库存小 幅增加。基本面利空驱动有限，但短期宏观利好基本交易结束，继续 上行需要有新的驱动出现，预计价格震荡。 2、碳元素方面，市场对煤炭行业"反内卷"预期加深。目前产地个 别前期检修及事故停产煤矿逐渐复产，但主产地煤矿仍有因检修和井 下原因停限产现象，国内 ...

2025年07月25日 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | 从业资格号 F03100815 | | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 硅锰 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 坪比 | 硅铁 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 环比 | | 日均产量(吨/天) | 26640 | 26120 | 520 | 日均产量(吨/天) | 14615 | 14285 | 330 | | 周度开工率(%) | 41. 58 | 40. 53 | 1. 05 | 周度开工率(%) | 33. 33 | 32. 45 | 0. 88 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the black building materials industry are rated as "oscillating", with some showing "oscillating and strengthening" trends. Specific varieties and ratings include: steel (oscillating and strengthening), iron ore (oscillating and strengthening), scrap steel (oscillating), coke (oscillating and strengthening), coking coal (oscillating and strengthening), glass (oscillating), soda ash (oscillating), ferrosilicon (oscillating and strengthening), and ferromanganese (oscillating and strengthening) [8][9][12][13][15][16] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, both supply and demand sides of the black building materials industry have introduced stimulus policies. The Yajiang Hydropower Project has enhanced the expectation of infrastructure development, and there are news of over - production inspections in coal mines. The price of black building materials has continued to rise significantly. The mid - stream is actively replenishing stocks, resulting in a shortage of spot resources. Although the terminal demand has not reached the peak season for verification, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the prices will oscillate at a high level. The subsequent focus will be on policy implementation and the performance of terminal demand during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - Core logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, there are disturbances in the coal supply side, and the cost support is strong. The expectation of stable growth in ten key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has brought positive demand expectations. The macro - sentiment is warming up, speculative demand is released periodically, and the spot price is rising. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory began to accumulate; the supply of hot - rolled coils decreased while demand increased, and inventory started to decline; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The inventory is at a relatively low level in history, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel in the off - season are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials under the background of high hot metal production, positive news keeps emerging, and the macro - sentiment continues to warm up. The futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term [8] Iron Ore - Core logic: Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has slightly increased, and the hot metal output of steel enterprises has rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory of iron ore has remained stable, the berthing volume has decreased, the steel mill inventory has slightly increased, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, there have been many positive news, the market sentiment is good, and with a good fundamental situation, the futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply is stable. There is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [2][8] Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel is tight this week as the arrival volume has decreased. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills has slightly decreased, but the profit of electric furnaces has improved, which may drive the resumption of production of electric furnaces. The hot metal output of blast furnaces has slightly increased, the price of iron ore has risen significantly, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steel mills has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long and short processes has rebounded. The inventory of steel mills has slightly accumulated. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and recently, driven by the macro - sentiment, the black plate has oscillated upwards, and the spot price of scrap steel has followed the upward trend. - Outlook: The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and resources are tight. It is expected that the price will follow the trend of the plate [9] Coke - Core logic: Yesterday, coke producers in the production areas initiated the second round of price increases for coke. Affected by the rumor of coal mine over - production inspections, the market sentiment was high, and the main coke contract hit the daily limit. On the supply side, although the first - round price increase was implemented last week, the continuous sharp rise in coal prices has compressed the profit margin of coke enterprises, and coke production is under pressure. On the demand side, the high hot metal output supports rigid demand, steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. At the same time, the futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies, resulting in a continuous decline in the coke inventory of coke enterprises. - Outlook: The demand for coke is strong, the cost support is strong, and the market sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [12] Coking Coal - Core logic: Yesterday, the news of coal mine over - production inspections spread in the market, triggering expectations of supply - side changes. Some coal mines in the main production areas that were previously shut down due to maintenance or accidents are gradually resuming production, but there are still coal mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground problems, and domestic coal supply is still subject to disturbances. The China - Mongolia port has fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. The demand for coking coal is strong, downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the inventory of some coal types is in short supply, and the coal mine inventory is continuously decreasing. - Outlook: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventory, the spot market is generally strong, and with the warming market sentiment, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [3][11][12] Glass - Core logic: The demand for glass in the off - season is declining, and the demand for deep - processing products has continued to weaken month - on - month. This week, downstream enterprises generally replenished stocks at the beginning of the month, and the production and sales were good, but the sustainability remains to be observed. After the futures price rises, it may stimulate speculative demand. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but the market sentiment is highly volatile. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase today, downstream and mid - stream enterprises continue to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policy continues to exceed expectations, the downstream expectation may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishing price increases. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed, and the glass market is expected to oscillate [13] Soda Ash - Core logic: Affected by the continuous increase in the "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures price has risen, driving the spot price to follow the upward trend. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although some soda ash plants are under maintenance today and the overall output has decreased, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is still poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. There are planned maintenance activities in July, and supported by the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote production capacity reduction [15] Ferromanganese - Core logic: After the release of the energy bureau's over - production inspection document, the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, and the bullish sentiment in the black market has risen again. The ferromanganese futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has been further raised. On the cost side, coke has entered the price - increase cycle, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese. The market sentiment is positive, port miners are actively supporting prices, and the price of manganese ore is firm. On the supply side, the profitability of manufacturers has improved, the driving force for resumption of production has increased, and the daily output of ferromanganese has continued to rise for 8 weeks. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of ferromanganese are not significant at present. Recently, the market bullish sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the main production areas [16] Ferrosilicon - Core logic: After the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, the valuation of carbon elements has increased, strengthening the cost support expectation for ferrosilicon. The futures price of ferrosilicon has risen significantly, and the spot price has been further raised. On the supply side, although the industry profit has been repaired recently, the pace of resumption of production of manufacturers is slow, but there is room for an increase in the industry's operating rate in the future. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, the trading activity has increased, magnesium producers are actively supporting prices, and the price of magnesium ingots has been raised. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. Recently, the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ferrosilicon manufacturers [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Demand Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Alloy Has Support Below" [1] - Author: Zhou Tao from Galaxy Futures' Commodity Research Institute [1] - Occupation Certificate Number: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F03134259, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0021009 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The demand resilience of alloys exceeds expectations, providing support for alloy prices, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices due to increasing hedging pressure from more manufacturers resuming production [3][4] - Suggested trading strategies include going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese, conducting cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle options at high prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply has a slight rebound, and some manufacturers have expectations of further resuming production as prices rebound; although downstream steel enters the off - season, demand shows resilience with stable apparent demand of five major steel products and a significant increase in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week, supporting the demand for alloys; cost performance varies, with electricity prices decreasing in Gansu and Qinghai and slightly increasing in Ningxia [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also has a slight rebound and remains at a low level; this week, the apparent demand and output of rebar both declined, suppressing the demand for silicomanganese, but overall crude steel output remains high, so demand still has resilience; port manganese ore spot prices have been stable and slightly strong recently, and overseas mines' August quotes are generally stable with a slight increase [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Unilateral**: Demand resilience supports prices, but avoid chasing rising prices [4] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese; conduct cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low [4] - **Options**: Sell straddle options at high prices [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 123,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [7] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 40.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 18, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons [9] 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis - Includes price and basis data of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi over multiple years [12] 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Shows the weekly output and operating rate data of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [16] 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation - Covers data such as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [22] 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for silicomanganese, with losses in all regions. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,691 yuan/ton and a profit of - 91 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,711 yuan/ton and a profit of - 111 yuan/ton; etc. [23] 3.3.6 Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Displays the price data of South African - produced Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps' CIF shipping quotes, and other manganese ore prices over multiple years [31] 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for ferrosilicon, all showing losses. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,415 yuan/ton and a profit of - 165 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,268 yuan/ton and a profit of - 68 yuan/ton; etc. [32] 3.3.8 Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Includes price data of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices over multiple years [39][42] 3.3.9 Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills - Shows the monthly procurement price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 over multiple years [45] 3.3.10 Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - Displays the cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years [48][51] 3.3.11 Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Presents the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China over multiple years [56] 3.3.12 Magnesium Metal Demand - Includes the price data of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output data of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi over multiple years [57] 3.3.13 Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - Shows the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy factories, the regional breakdown of alloy factory ferrosilicon inventory, the available days of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory, and the regional breakdown of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days over multiple years [59] 3.3.14 Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - Covers the available days of steel mill silicomanganese inventory, the regional breakdown of steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy factories over multiple years [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6][9][12][15] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to decent June macro data and un - expected central urban work conference statements, the market anticipates a correction, with a cautious mindset. The iron ore is strong, supporting the price center of the sector. Steel and coking coal are lackluster, and the valuation repair from the basis perspective has temporarily reached its limit. The terminal demand verification point hasn't arrived, and the macro trend dominates the off - season market, expected to oscillate at high levels [1][2] - The overall market rally stimulates mid - stream inventory building, creating a positive feedback for the industry chain. The macro - favorable expectations have cooled, and future focus will be on policy implementation and off - season terminal demand performance [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - **Iron Element**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, 45 - port arrivals increased as expected. Steel mills' profitability is good, and small - sample steel mill hot metal production rose, remaining at a high year - on - year level. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market price oscillates strongly [2] - **Carbon Element**: Some previously - overhauled coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but there are still production restrictions due to overhauls and underground issues. The overall supply has not returned to previous highs. On the import side, the China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but the Mongolian Naadam holiday lasts until the 17th, and customs clearance may remain low. Coke production has slightly decreased, but there is still rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream is actively restocking, and some coal types are in short supply. The first round of price increases for coke is expected to be implemented on Thursday [3] - **Alloys**: Manganese ore prices are temporarily stable, but port inventories have slightly increased. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future has significant downward potential, and the support for ore prices is insufficient. The supply of manganese silicon has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand for steel products remains stable at a relatively high level [3] - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand is weakening. Although there was good sales at the beginning of the month, its sustainability is questionable. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing, and market sentiment has a large impact. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [6] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The market expects a significant reduction in photovoltaic daily melting, and heavy - soda demand is flat. Light - soda downstream demand is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Emotions are interfering with the market, and the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][15] 2. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The central urban work conference's statements were not unexpected, and the subsequent policy - stimulus expectations have cooled. The crude steel output in the first six months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with limited subsequent production - reduction pressure. The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at high levels [9] - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, and port arrivals increased. Steel mills' profitability is good, and hot metal production rose. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The market price oscillates strongly, and before the market sentiment weakens, prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel slightly increased, but the daily consumption decreased. The factory inventory slightly decreased. The fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, but some are affected by profit pressure. The first round of price increases is expected to be implemented on Thursday. The downstream steel mills have good profits, are actively producing and restocking. The futures are at a significant premium, and the coke enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing. The market expects a second - round price increase, and the market is expected to oscillate [10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but overall supply has not returned to previous highs. The China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but customs clearance may remain low. The downstream has rigid demand for coking coal and is actively restocking. The coal mine inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate [3][13] - **Glass**: The off - season demand is declining, and deep - processing orders are decreasing. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is increasing. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The heavy - soda demand is flat, and the light - soda downstream demand is weak. Manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. The long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change, and enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [6][15] - **Silicon Manganese**: After the central urban work conference, the macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the manganese silicon market oscillated weakly. The cost support has strengthened, the supply has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and the downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the ferrosilicon price declined weakly. The cost has decreased, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [19]

⿊⾊：宏观情绪暂时降温，⿊⾊⼩幅回落 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-16 宏观情绪暂时降温，⿊⾊⼩幅回落 6⽉宏观数据表现尚可，强刺激政策预期弱化，中央城市会议⼯作表 述未超预期，情绪暂时降温。产业本⾝⽭盾不显著，盘⾯拉涨刺激中 下游环节补库推动现货价格跟涨形成共振。铁⽔后续仍有回升预期， 焦煤市场情绪持续转好，尽管煤矿已开始复产，但库存正向下游转 移，流动性回暖。铁矿发运回落，港⼝微幅去库。整体⽽⾔，基本⾯ 变化不⼤，宏观⻛向主导淡季价格，预计⾼位震荡运⾏。 6月宏观数据表现尚可，强刺激政策预期弱化，中央城市会议工作表 述未超预期，情绪暂时降温。产业本身矛盾不显著，盘面拉涨刺激中 下游环节补库推动现货价格跟涨形成共振。铁水后续仍有回升预期， 焦煤市场情绪持续转好，尽管煤矿已开始复产，但库存正向下游转 移，流动性回暖。铁矿发运回落，港口微幅去库。整体而言，基本面 变化不大，宏观风向主导淡季价格，预计高位震荡运行。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运微降，45港口到港量回升，符合预 期；需求端钢企盈利小幅改善，钢企铁水下降，同比保持高位。本期 由于到港 ...