1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-09 宏观⽀撑有限，盘⾯延续弱势 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以⼤幅下降，基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯弱 势运⾏。铁⽔仍有季节性⾛弱预期，蒙煤进⼝仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘⾯表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以大幅下降，基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面弱 势运行。铁水仍有季节性走弱预期，蒙煤进口仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘面表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 比增加，整体仍有累库压力。废钢基本面矛盾有限，现货 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is cautious, and both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate. Glass needs long - term losses for capacity clearance, and soda ash prices are restricted by potential float glass cold - repairs [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both are expected to show an oscillatory trend. Silicon manganese prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and silicon ferrosilicon prices will be weakly correlated with the sector in the short - term due to high inventory [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated downward with reduced positions. Spot prices were stable regionally, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Supply contraction was insufficient, and high inventory persisted. Attention should be paid to cold - repairs and macro policies [1]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated with varying performance among contracts. Light soda ash consumption was better than heavy soda ash, and downstream demand was for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions were slightly alleviated, but inventory remained high. Heavy soda ash demand may face challenges due to potential float glass cold - repairs [1]. - **Strategies**: Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, with no specific cross - period or cross - variety strategies provided [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Silicon Manganese Market Analysis**: Based on steel consumption data, building material consumption was fair. Futures rebounded strongly with the black market. Spot prices were firm, but production and operating rates continued to decline due to losses. Inventory reached a new high, and port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, providing cost support. Prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to basis, manganese ore cost, and production changes [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis**: Futures rebounded with the black market. Spot prices were weakly stable with average trading volume. High production and inventory persisted, demand weakened marginally, and although inventory decreased slightly due to reduced operating rates, high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to cost factors and regional policies [3][4]. - **Strategies**: Both silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with specific ratings for each variety as follows: steel - oscillation; iron ore - oscillation with an upward bias; scrap steel - oscillation; coke - oscillation; coking coal - oscillation with an upward bias; glass - oscillation; manganese silicon - oscillation; silicon iron - oscillation; soda ash - oscillation [8][12][15][16][19] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is favorable, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, as the off - season deepens, demand may weaken, and high inventory levels limit the upside potential. Iron ore prices are strong due to potential restocking demand, while scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation, and coking coal's far - month contracts may oscillate with an upward bias. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to trade around cost levels. Glass and soda ash face over - supply issues, with glass prices likely to oscillate weakly without more cold repairs, and soda ash prices expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [2][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in arrivals this period after a decrease in the previous two weeks. Port inventories slightly declined, and steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. Scrap steel supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and environmental relaxation, coke supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand remained strong, and total inventory continued to decline, but cost support for spot prices weakened, and the market expected price cuts. Coke futures are expected to follow coking coal in oscillation. Coking coal's fundamentals have not significantly weakened, and downstream winter restocking is expected after spot price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [3] Alloy - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels. Silicon iron's cost supports the price bottom, but oversupply restricts the upside, and it is also expected to trade around cost levels [4][7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high, and the current supply - demand is oversupplied. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices, otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15] Steel - Spot market transactions were good, steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm remained high, and steel output slightly increased. Steel demand was resilient, and overall inventory continued to decline, but inventory levels were still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals are improving, and the futures market has the driving force for a low - level rebound, but the upside is limited due to the off - season and high inventory [10] Iron Ore - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated greatly. Spot prices mostly rose. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and the hurricane affected the arrival rhythm. Hot metal production slightly decreased, and restocking demand has not been significantly released. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [10] Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals slightly increased, and electric furnace profits significantly recovered after the decline in scrap prices and the rise in finished product prices. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills slightly decreased, and steel mills slightly replenished their inventories. The supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and it is expected to oscillate [11] Coke - Futures followed coking coal in oscillation. Spot prices declined, and supply slightly increased after the improvement of coking profits and the end of environmental restrictions. Demand was weakening as hot metal production declined slightly. Inventory at coke enterprises slightly increased but remained low. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation [12][13] Coking Coal - Futures were under pressure and oscillated. Spot prices of some varieties declined. Domestic supply remained low, and the fundamentals have not significantly weakened. There is restocking demand for downstream winter storage after price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [14] Manganese Silicon - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions were average, and manufacturers were under cost pressure. Cost support remained strong, but the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [17] Silicon Iron - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions needed improvement. Cost support was strong, but oversupply restricted the upside, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the policy "vacuum period" and with stable industrial operations, the prices of black building materials oscillated. The iron ore, which had a relatively large decline earlier, rebounded significantly. At night, the sector continued to oscillate, and the coking coal and coke futures prices weakened due to the fourth round of coke price increase negotiations [2][3]. - Currently, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and there are no new changes in the macro and policy aspects to affect market expectations. Therefore, the black building materials prices lack a clear trend and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. If there are more favorable policies in the future, there may be a phased upward opportunity [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume was 98.8 (-9) million tons. The spot price was strong. Overseas mine shipments were relatively stable but decreased month - on - month. The arrival of goods decreased week - on - week. The daily average molten iron was stable in the short term, but there was an increasing expectation of seasonal decline. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the marginal supply - demand might improve. It is expected that after a rapid price decline, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The supply of scrap steel decreased, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of scrap steel was weak, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate with the finished products in the short term [10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The futures market oscillated at a low level. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to increase, and the demand was stable in the short term. After three rounds of price increases, the steel mills were resistant to further increases, but the fourth - round price increase was likely to be implemented. The coke price is expected to oscillate with the coking coal [10][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was still tight, and the Mongolian coal import increase was limited. The spot price was strongly supported, but the futures price was suppressed by the finished products. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term cost supported the price, but the supply - demand was loose, and there was insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term cost was strong, but the supply - demand was loose, and the upward driving force was insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The national average price decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The supply might be disrupted, and the mid - and downstream inventories were moderately high. The current supply - demand was in surplus. If there was no more cold repair by the end of the year, the price would be under pressure; otherwise, it would rise [4][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost increased, and the bottom support was obvious. However, the supply - demand surplus suppressed the price increase. Recently, the weakening of the glass price dragged down the soda ash price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [4][15]. Steel - The spot market transactions were weak. The steel mills' profitability decreased, and the production decreased. The demand declined, and the overall inventory continued to decrease, but it was still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals had contradictions. It is expected that during the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the price will have limited downward space. Pay attention to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy [9]. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all increased. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.63% on that day, decreased by 1.21% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.24% in the past month, and decreased by 5.87% since the beginning of the year [98][99].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis - The glass futures market showed a volatile decline yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers purchased on - demand. The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with high inventory levels despite some destocking, and the medium - to - long - term demand is not optimistic due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the weak real - estate industry. The change of glass production lines should be continuously monitored [1]. - The soda ash futures market moved in a volatile manner yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly purchasing at low prices for essential needs. The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market still exists. Although downstream essential demand is resilient, high inventory continuously suppresses prices, and the pressure of destocking persists throughout the year. The supply and cost changes of soda ash should be continuously monitored [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Strategy - The glass market is expected to be volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery and inter - commodity trading [2]. Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese futures dropped in the afternoon following the coking coal sector yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement volume decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese enterprises are continuously losing money, but production remains at a medium - to - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. However, the inventory of upstream manganese ore is continuously decreasing, and the total inventory of manganese elements remains stable. It is expected that the price of silicon manganese will continue to resonate with the black - series products and maintain a wide - range low - level volatile trend. The cost support of manganese ore and regional policies should be monitored [3]. - The main contract of silicon iron futures declined in a volatile manner yesterday. The silicon iron market showed little change, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5700 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron has high production and high inventory, and demand is marginally weakening. The market mainly purchases on - demand. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, production has not been effectively restricted, and high inventory pressure will continue to suppress prices. With the increase in the prices of semi - coke and electricity in some regions, the cost of silicon iron has risen. The changes in coal and electricity prices on the cost side and regional policies should be monitored [3]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong [4].