Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for various black building materials, mostly rated as "oscillating". The specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [8] - Iron ore: Oscillating [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [10] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating [12] - Glass: Oscillating [14] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's mention of stabilizing the growth of the steel industry had a limited positive impact, and the futures market showed a muted reaction. The overall black building materials market is expected to oscillate, with potential for a slight rebound if there are positive drivers. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the coming weeks and the recovery of furnace material supply [1][2]. - The black building materials market's cost has some support, but the expected weak demand during the peak season restricts the upside potential. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The steel industry's growth - stabilizing plan has led to a slight increase in the futures price. Steel spot trading is average, with more low - price transactions. This week, some steel mills resumed production and increased output, resulting in an increase in rebar production and stable hot - rolled coil production. During the transition between the off - season and peak season, rebar's apparent demand has improved month - on - month but is still lower year - on - year, and inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains resilient, and inventory also accumulates under high production. The apparent demand for medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products has weakened, and inventory has increased. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: During the off - season to peak - season transition, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Supply and demand will be affected around the military parade, and the impact of blast furnace production restrictions may be reflected in next week's data. After the parade, pig iron production may remain at a high level, and the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely in the short term. Focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Port trading volume decreased slightly. The spot market prices increased, and port trading volume decreased. Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, approaching last year's level. Total supply is relatively stable. Pig iron production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of a decline in pig iron production as some steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance at the end of the month, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level. This week, port inventory decreased, berthing increased, and factory inventory decreased, resulting in a slight decline in total inventory [3][8]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited negative fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. Due to the pressure on finished products, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has decreased. Factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the available inventory days are at a low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. Although the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished product prices, resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: In the futures market, the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan and the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of price increases have led to an oscillating market. In the spot market, the price in Rizhao Port decreased. As the military parade approaches, the production of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production. Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but due to the military parade, the production of some steel mills in North China will be restricted, and transportation is tightened, resulting in low inventory in local steel mills and common rush - order situations. Some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the upstream coking enterprise inventory is still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, the production restrictions on coke are stronger than those on steel mills. In the short term, the coke market will remain tight. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [11]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: In the futures market, due to the tightening of coal mine safety supervision before the military parade and the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan, the market oscillates. In the spot market, the price of some coking coal decreased. On the supply side, the production of some coal mines is restricted due to accidents and other factors, and safety inspections are increasing. Some coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, resulting in a tightening of coal mine production before the parade. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, and the impact of the military parade is currently limited. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differences. Coking production in some areas is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on - demand, and spot trading is weak and stable. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the previous inventory reduction to a low level and a large number of pre - sold orders mean that there is no obvious inventory pressure for now [3][12]. - Outlook: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [12]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The spot price is stable. The demand in the off - season has decreased, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased significantly to a high level this year. Downstream has limited ability to replenish inventory. As the traditional peak season approaches, some upstream manufacturers are promoting sales by raising prices, and downstream purchasing has stabilized overall. On the supply side, a new production line has been ignited recently, and there are still production lines to be ignited in Shahe. The daily melting volume is expected to increase steadily. As the delivery approaches, the spot price has decreased, and the delivery logic is becoming more dominant. The fundamentals are still weak, and the reverse - spread logic is still stable. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [14]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the delivery contradiction trading, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long term, capacity reduction through marketization is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market is weakening, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. In the short term, the production in Alxa is affected, but it is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand purchasing. There are still some production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to increase steadily. The downstream purchasing of light soda ash has remained flat, but the overall downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. As the shipping problem is resolved, the inventory in the middle reaches has accumulated, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The futures price may return to fundamental trading [18]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [18]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The futures price of manganese silicon first declined weakly and then oscillated upward. In the spot market, a new round of steel procurement has started, and the market is waiting and watching. The spot price adjustment is small. The October manganese ore price quote is flat month - on - month. Recently, port trading has been sluggish, but miners are reluctant to reduce prices, and port ore prices have not fluctuated much. On the demand side, steel mills' profits are good, and finished product production is still at a high level. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, but in September, as the peak season begins and after the parade, finished product production is expected to increase. On the supply side, manganese silicon production has reached a high level this year, and market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is temporarily controllable. Due to cost support, the short - term decline in manganese silicon prices is limited. However, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, there is still downward pressure on prices in the long term. Pay attention to the reduction in raw material costs [19]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The futures price of ferrosilicon continued to decline. In the spot market, trading was weak, but manufacturers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price adjustment was small. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated recently, and ferrosilicon production has gradually reached a high level. On the demand side, steel production has remained stable at a high level, and the steel - making demand for ferrosilicon still has some resilience. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline, but in the peak season, finished product production will gradually increase. In the metal magnesium market, supply pressure has increased, while demand is still weak, and the magnesium ingot price is under pressure [20]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large. Due to cost support, the short - term downward adjustment space for ferrosilicon prices is limited. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and in the long term, the price center will tend to decline. Pay attention to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in major production areas [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - The mid - term outlooks for individual varieties such as iron ore, coke, etc. are also "oscillation" [7][8][10][11] Core Viewpoints - The black market has limited upside potential due to weak terminal demand expectations, but there is support from supply disruptions and downstream restocking needs. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Analysis - The black market's upward movement lacks drive, with the previous day's gains mostly erased and coking coal leading the decline. Supply constraints for furnace materials remain, and the downside space for prices is limited. Steel apparent demand is weak, and it is in the restocking window before the peak season. If there is topic - driven news, there is a small rebound space; otherwise, it will oscillate. Attention should be paid to future demand and furnace material supply recovery [1]. By Variety Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments decreased, 45 - port arrivals slightly declined, and total supply is relatively stable. Iron ore demand is expected to remain high as iron - making water production increases slightly. Port inventories decreased slightly. With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, prices are expected to oscillate [2][7][8]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and safety inspections. Import volumes are high but have recently declined briefly. Coking coal's short - term rigid demand has slightly decreased, and some mines have inventory accumulation, but overall inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term futures market still has support [2][12]. Coke - The eighth round of price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Some areas' coking production is restricted. Upstream coking enterprises' inventories are still low, and short - term supply and demand remain tight under simultaneous coking and steel production restrictions. Before the parade, the futures market still has support [11]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Before the parade, manufacturers' raw material restocking is nearly finished, port prices are loosening, and supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and prices may face downward pressure [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, and there are concerns in the fundamentals [2]. Glass - After the futures price decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled. Supply is expected to remain stable, and there is some inventory accumulation upstream. Cost support has strengthened due to rising coal prices, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][13]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading volume has increased slightly. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][5][15]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has decreased, and the fundamentals' contradictions are not prominent. Due to the pressure on finished product prices, electric furnace profits are low, but resources are still tight, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. For individual products, most are rated as "oscillating", including iron ore, coke,焦煤, glass,纯碱, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After about a week of decline, the black building materials entered the lower end of the valuation range. With supply constraints on furnace materials and expectations of stricter safety supervision, prices rebounded significantly. As the off - peak and peak seasons are approaching, the apparent demand for steel remains weak, but it's not yet the time to verify terminal demand. With low inventory pressure in each link of the black industry chain and in the pre - peak season restocking window, prices are expected to have a small rebound space. Attention should be paid to future demand performance and furnace material supply recovery [2]. - Overall, after consecutive days of decline, black prices have fallen near the cost support level, and demand negatives have been gradually digested. With supply disturbances in furnace materials and downstream restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebound. However, the weak expectation of peak - season terminal demand remains, suppressing the upside space. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to last year's level, with relatively stable total supply. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly, and the end - of - month production restrictions have limited impact, so iron ore demand is expected to remain high. In terms of inventory, the iron ore ports destocked this week, with a slight decrease in total inventory. There are limited bearish drivers in the fundamentals, and the price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited bearish fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and other factors. For example, a 3 - million - ton low - sulfur lean primary coking coal mine in Xiangning, Linfen, Shanxi has been shut down for three days. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles, but there was a short - term decline in the past two days due to the Mongolian customs system. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, showing regional differentiation. In some areas, coking production is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and spot transactions have weakened. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances and difficult significant supply increase before the parade, short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [13]. 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, and the black sector was strong, with manganese silicon oscillating strongly. Manganese silicon manufacturers stocked up on raw materials before the parade, and the restocking is nearly over. With increased arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has weakened from its high level. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and finished product output remains high. Under the environment of industry profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be downward pressure on the manganese silicon price [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward space for the manganese silicon price is limited. But in the medium - to - long - term, as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in raw material costs [17]. 3.3.2 Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The current market inventory pressure of silicon iron is not large. In the short - term, the silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the supply - demand gap will gradually be filled, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The upside space of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is not large, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward adjustment space for the silicon iron price is limited. But the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move down. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18][20]. 3.4 Glass - Core Logic: After the glass futures price fell, the sentiment in the spot market declined, with mid - stream shipments and a significant decline in upstream production and sales. On the supply side, there is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream has slightly accumulated inventory, with no prominent self - contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the rising coal price has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [3]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still gives a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: There are still contraction disturbances in the supply of coking coal and iron ore. Under the background of high pig iron production, the cost has an upward driving force, and the disk has strong support. The overall spot steel transactions are average, mainly at low prices, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Last week, the production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. As the off - peak season ends, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade. The apparent demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains highly resilient, and inventory continues to accumulate under high production. The supply - demand fluctuations of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are limited, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products increasing, and the inventory accumulation speed slowing down [8]. - Outlook: As the off - peak season ends, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. Both supply and demand will be affected before and after the parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The pre - parade restocking of raw materials may end. Recently, there are continuous disturbances in the cost supply side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely. Future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.6 Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, combined with continuous rumors of production restrictions and strengthened cost support from coking coal, coke prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton (+10). On the supply side, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, and coking enterprise profits have quickly recovered. As the parade approaches, coking production in some areas is gradually restricted, while others maintain normal production. On the demand side, downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Affected by the parade, transportation in some areas is restricted, so local steel mill inventories are still low, and some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. Currently, the inventory of upstream coking enterprises is still at a low level, and under simultaneous production restrictions on coking and steel, the short - term supply - demand remains tight [12]. - Outlook: As the parade approaches, the expectation of coke production restrictions may be stronger than that of steel mills. The short - term tight supply situation will continue. With the start of the eighth round of price increases and strengthened cost support from coking coal, the short - term disk has strong support [12]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average tax - excluded price of crushed scrap in East China is 2174 (+5) yuan/ton, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference in East China is 1032 (+24) yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of demand, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished products recently. The profit and loss of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours in East China is at a tight balance, and there are losses in many other areas during off - peak hours. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces has decreased month - on - month. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has slightly increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also slightly increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory has slightly increased, and the available inventory days have dropped to a relatively low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low electric arc furnace profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. 3.8 Sodium Carbonate - Core Logic: The delivered price of heavy - quality sodium carbonate in Shahe is 1230 - 1280 yuan/ton (-). The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term suppression. The production is at a high level, and supply pressure remains. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, heavy - quality sodium carbonate is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the float glass daily melting volume is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out initially, currently at 86,500 tons. The demand for heavy - quality sodium carbonate is flat. In the light - quality sodium carbonate sector, downstream procurement is flat, but the overall downstream restocking sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Sentiment affects the disk. As the shipping problem eases, mid - stream inventory accumulates, and downstream acceptance is weak [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. After the disk price drops, there is a small increase in spot - futures transactions. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16].