Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosts market confidence, and most varieties in the black sector showed an upward trend in the day and night sessions. Although policy implementation is long - term, market sentiment may be further boosted later. However, as the off - season approaches, the weakening of fundamentals is likely to limit the upward space of sector prices [1][2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - **Market Sentiment**: The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has a positive impact on market sentiment, and there is potential for further improvement [1][2][6] - **Industry Outlook**: In the medium term, the industry is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals may weaken as the off - season begins, restricting price increases [6] 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The marginal weakening expectation of the fundamentals remains. Due to Tangshan's production restrictions and seasonal maintenance, the decline in hot metal output is expected. The arrival of domestic ores will be stable, and inventory will increase marginally. However, considering the decrease in the weight of fundamental pricing and the warming of macro - expectations, there is still support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of ore prices [2] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and its price is expected to follow the trend of finished products in the short term [2][11] 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Environmental protection production restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited in Hebei. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and subsequent increments are limited. The middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low. With the positive macro - environment, there is support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of coal prices [2] 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost reduction is limited, and high steel production supports the price. However, the market has a pessimistic supply - demand expectation, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [3] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [3] 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, market expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound of the disk price. However, considering the inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, the restocking space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][15] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down to promote capacity reduction [3] 6. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The macro - environment is warm, but the actual steel inventory is high year - on - year, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant domestic policies and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [8] - **Iron Ore**: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and the disk price is strengthening. The fundamentals are slightly weakening, but overall contradictions are not significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume remains low, and the electric furnace profit is recovering. The price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [11] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are weakening, and the disk is oscillating. The impact of environmental protection production restrictions is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is low. The price is expected to oscillate with support for periodic upward movement [14] - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound, but the rebound space is limited. In the long - term, the price may oscillate downward [15] - **Soda Ash**: The output is increasing month - on - month, and the market is operating stably. It is expected to oscillate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term price is supported, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure [18] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is limited [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" outlook for the mid - term of the black building materials industry [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the peak season draws to an end, although the demand for steel products has a slight month - on - month improvement, it cannot strongly support the prices of sector varieties. After the "15th Five - Year Plan" related meeting on October 23, the trading expectation around the introduction of favorable policies is expected to heat up. The fundamentals' guidance for prices will be "blunted", and short - term sector varieties may remain volatile. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The overseas mine shipments have a slight month - on - month rebound, the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The daily output of sample hot metal and the steel mill profitability rate have continued to decline slightly, but the hot metal is still at a high level. It is expected that the short - term price will fluctuate. The port trading volume is 122.9(+21.8) million tons, the swap main contract is 105.08(+0.52) dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 781(+4) yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is relatively stable, with a significant decline in the arrival volume this week and a slight year - on - year decrease, and a slight rebound in yesterday's arrival at the port. The demand has seen a slight increase in the daily consumption of scrap steel due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival, and a decrease in the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel due to a slight decline in hot metal production. The inventory has increased slightly in steel enterprises. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the trend of finished products. The average tax - free price of shredded materials in East China is 2173(+1) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 945(+9) yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The profit margins of the coking and steel sectors have both narrowed, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. With the hot metal remaining at a high level in the short term, the expectation of a price increase is strong. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. The futures market fluctuated yesterday, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1470(+20) yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply has been disrupted, and capacity release is still restricted. The demand for coke production can provide rigid support in the short term, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy with low upstream inventory. However, with the steel under pressure, the upward driving force of furnace materials is temporarily limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will fluctuate in the short term. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1307 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may shift downward in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract price of silicomanganese rose yesterday. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore blocks with 45.0% Mn at Tianjin Port is 39 yuan/ton - degree [16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel production, macro - policy expectations, and firm cost support the price. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the rebound height of the ferrosilicon price is expected to be limited. The main contract price of ferrosilicon rose yesterday, and the ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5180(+50) yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The upstream inventory has been continuously accumulating, and after the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows a weak and volatile trend. The mid - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and it is difficult to have a rebound in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1140(-20) yuan/ton, and the national average price is 1196(-7) yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow the macro - fluctuations and have a wide - range volatile trend. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote production capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the daily production is 105,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by about 10,000 tons on Monday [16]. 3.5 Steel Products - The spot market transactions are average, with a strong willingness to sell at low prices. The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces is not good, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still relatively high. The downward trend of hot metal is not obvious, and there is a situation of electric furnace restart. The supply of steel products is at a relatively high level. The demand continues to recover, but the recovery height is still limited. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the inventory level is still at a moderately high level. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate at a low level. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3170(+20) yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260(+10) yuan/ton, the trading volume of construction steel is 107,573(+6,422) tons, and the trading volume of hot - rolled coil is 35,237(+2,107) tons [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with the overall outlook being "sideways" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector were generally stable yesterday, but steel and iron ore prices on the futures market continued to face pressure, dragging down coal and coke products. As the traditional off - season approaches, the actual demand for steel is unlikely to improve significantly. With the approaching of the blast furnace maintenance season for steel enterprises, there are still expectations of negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, in late October, the expectation of positive news from domestic and foreign macro - level meetings has increased, and short - term sector varieties are expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall pressure is not prominent. With the still - existing macro - level expectation disturbances, a slight recovery in steel demand, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Scrap steel: The contradictions in the scrap steel market are not prominent. With the current pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits, the short - term price of scrap steel is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke are tight. With the deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated. However, steel mills' profits are also poor, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. Whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen. The price of coke is expected to fluctuate. - Coking coal: Under the background of "anti - involution" and over - production inspections, the release of supply - side production capacity is restricted. The demand side still has rigid demand support from short - term coke production. With low inventories upstream, the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate [2] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price of manganese silicon, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - to - long - term price center may still decline. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon is also supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost. However, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure in the later stage [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot sales of glass are weak. After the synchronous decline of the spot and futures markets, the short - term price fluctuates weakly. Currently, the middle - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and there is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. - Soda ash: The pattern of over - supply in the soda ash market remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes in the future, and the long - term price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The recovery of post - holiday demand is limited, and steel inventories are at a moderately high level. Fundamental contradictions still exist, and the upper limit of the futures price is suppressed. With important domestic meetings this week, attention should be paid to policy - related disturbances. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] - Iron ore: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to marginal weakening of fundamentals, macro - level disturbances, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [7] - Scrap steel: With its own fundamentals having no prominent contradictions, the short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel due to pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits [9] - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke remain tight. With the continuous deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated, but it still needs time to be implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Coking coal: With supply still restricted and good auction results, the price is expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Glass: The spot sales are weak, and the short - term price fluctuates weakly. There is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, it is expected to decline if the market focuses on fundamentals [12] - Soda ash: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes, and the long - term price center will decline [14] - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may decline [14][15] - Ferrosilicon: Although supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure [16] 3.6 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2239.21, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index was 2544.06, up 0.41%; the industrial products index was 2185.29, up 0.06%; the PPI commodity index was 1323.60, up 0.10%. - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on October 21, 2025, was 1968.47, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.42%, a 1 - month decline of 2.87%, and a decline of 6.63% since the beginning of the year [102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][7][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, 2025, the main economic indicators for September were announced. Data in real estate, infrastructure, and other fields related to black building materials remained poor. The prices of leading sector varieties dropped from their intraday highs and remained under pressure at night. The demand side of the industry continued to be weak. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting underway, the market still expects policy benefits to boost confidence [1][2] - Entering late October, the traditional peak season is ending, and with tariff disturbances, the demand side is unlikely to perform well. Although high molten iron still supports the furnace charge in the short term, the market's negative feedback expectation strengthens as the peak season ends. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting releasing sector benefits [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments rebounded slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped from a high level. The demand side saw a slight decline in the average daily output of sample molten iron and the steel mill profitability rate, but molten iron remained at a high level. Port inventories continued to accumulate. The fundamentals of iron ore weakened marginally, but the overall pressure was not prominent. Policy expectations may cause fluctuations, and steel demand improved slightly. The future of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain, so short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume at steel mills decreased, and the electric furnace profit improved slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no obvious contradictions. With the current pressure on finished product prices and poor electric furnace profits, short - term prices are expected to follow finished products [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coke remained tight. With rising costs, the second price increase was initiated, but steel prices were still weak. The price increase needs time to be implemented, and coke prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supply disturbances continued, and the production increment space of coal mines was limited. With low inventories, the fundamentals were healthy. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline in the future [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term peak demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on prices [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, short - term prices show an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to oscillate downward [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long run, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][14] 3.5 Steel - The fundamentals of steel still have contradictions. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level is still moderately high. With the domestic important meeting this week, attention should be paid to policy disturbances, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 20, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity 20 index was 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index was 2183.97, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index was 1976.21, up 0.55% on the day, up 0.13% in the past 5 days, down 1.65% in the past month, and down 6.26% since the beginning of the year [102][104]

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating", and the short - term prices of various varieties are expected to be mainly in an oscillating state [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - During the long holiday, the spot market of the black building materials industry remained stable. Industry demand was restricted by poor domestic demand and frequent overseas tariffs, but the furnace material side continued to support the prices of sector varieties. In this pattern, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will mainly oscillate. Attention should be paid to domestic meetings and overseas interest rate cuts to boost market sentiment again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - During the long holiday, steel and billet prices remained stable. Iron ore swaps and spot prices rose slightly by 0.3 - 1.3%. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, while coking coal, alloy, glass, and soda ash prices remained stable. The demand performance in early October was still lackluster, and frequent overseas tariff disturbances limited the upside potential of post - holiday prices. High hot metal production supported the demand and prices of furnace materials, thus stabilizing steel costs [1]. 3.2 Specific Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - During the holiday, the inventory of steel accumulated too quickly, and the current pressure still existed. The spot market transactions were generally weak, and the prices were basically stable. The output of the five major steel products remained at a relatively high level during the holiday, but the demand shrank significantly, and the inventory accumulation was obvious. Overseas tariff policies were constantly disturbing, but the short - term impact was expected to be limited. Although the current steel inventory was at a moderately high level and the short - term disk was under pressure, there were still expectations for anti - involution policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan, the macro - environment was still warm, and the cost side had certain support, so the downside space of the disk was limited [7]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, and the overseas market rose slightly. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the port arrivals increased. The demand for iron ore was supported by high hot metal production, and some steel mills had restocking plans after the holiday. The inventory pressure was not prominent. However, the general performance of the building materials peak - season demand limited the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8][9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - During the holiday, the supply and demand of scrap steel were stable, and the spot price fell slightly. After the steel enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the spot price decreased. The current pressure on finished product prices led to a contraction in electric furnace profits. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - During the holiday, the coke price increase was implemented, and the supply and demand decreased slightly. The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, but the high raw coal price still restricted the overall start - up. The demand was supported by high hot metal production. The upstream inventory was still at a low level. It is expected that the post - holiday price will remain oscillating [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - During the holiday, some coking coal mines were on holiday, and the market operated stably. After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and Mongolian coal imports will also reach a high level. The overall supply is expected to increase, but the increase will be restricted. The demand for coking coal will remain high in the short term. Overall, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. 3.2.6 Glass - During the holiday, the glass production and sales were weak, and manufacturers tried to raise prices to boost sentiment. A large amount of inventory was accumulated during the National Day. If the post - holiday price increase fails to stimulate restocking sentiment, the fundamental logic may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12][13]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - During the holiday, soda ash was expected to accumulate inventory, and the fundamental supply - demand situation changed little. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - During the holiday, the manganese silicon market remained stable, and the pessimistic supply - demand situation suppressed the price. In the short - term, high production costs and peak - season demand expectations supported the price, but the market supply - demand expectation was pessimistic, and there was still downward pressure on the price center after the peak season [2][16]. 3.2.9 Silicon Iron - During the holiday, the silicon iron market operated stably, and the loose supply - demand situation pressured the price. In the short - term, peak - season expectations and firm costs supported the price, but the market supply - demand relationship was becoming looser, and there was still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2][17]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides basis seasonal charts for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon iron, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash, as well as profit seasonal charts and steel daily trading volume data. In addition, it shows the performance of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index and the steel industry chain index [19][20][61][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall "oscillating" outlook for the black building materials industry, indicating that the prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating in the short - term [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the pre - holiday restocking logic has ended, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for furnace materials, which in turn supports the steel price at the cost end. As the fourth quarter approaches, the market's expectations for the upcoming important meetings are increasing, so it is expected that the negative feedback in the industrial chain is difficult to form. The prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating before the holiday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the shipments from overseas mines are stable. However, the arrival rhythm is affected by typhoons. Considering the end of pre - holiday restocking demand and the need to further verify the peak - season demand for building materials, the upside space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the pressure on finished - product prices leads to a contraction in electric - furnace profits. It is expected that the price will oscillate following the finished products in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although the steel mills' restocking is over, the rigid demand is strong under the high - iron - water background. The demand for coke is still supported, and the raw - coal price provides strong support. There are still expectations for price increases in the market, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the coal mine production is expected to decline slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal is suspended, so the overall supply pressure is not large. After the coke price increase is implemented and the profit pressure is relieved, the production can still remain at a high level. The fundamentals of coking coal are strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short - term, the high production cost and the peak - season demand expectation support the price of manganese silicon. However, the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center after the peak season [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term peak - season expectation and the firm cost support the price of silicon iron. But the market's supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. It is expected to follow macro - changes and operate with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2]. 3.6 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market trading of steel is generally weak. The restocking before the holiday is coming to an end, and the speculative intention is weak. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to decline before the holiday, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand and worried about the post - holiday inventory pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to be under pressure, but the downward space is limited due to the upcoming important meetings and cost support [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from overseas mines have recovered slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined slightly. The spot market quotation has fallen, and the port trading has recovered, but the pre - holiday trading is generally weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the electric - furnace profit has shrunk. It is expected to follow the finished products' price in the short - term [9]. - **Coke**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still supported by high iron - water production. Some steel mills have accepted the price increase, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply pressure is not large during the holiday, and the fundamentals are strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak in reality, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The downstream restocking demand is nearly over, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term cost and demand expectations support the price, but there is downward space after the peak season [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is pessimistic about the post - holiday demand. The futures price is running weakly. The short - term demand expectation and cost support the price, but there is downward pressure after the peak season [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From a policy perspective, after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down, and it is currently in the policy - making stage. Pay attention to the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. It is expected that the policy will have a neutral impact on the market outlook, and the black market will return to supply - demand and reality [2]. - In terms of market rhythm, the basis positive arbitrage has entered the closing cycle. Although the peak season is approaching, the real downstream demand for steel has limited improvement. The manufacturing prosperity level is still below the boom - bust line. High inventories of some varieties and the profit - taking of basis positive arbitrage suppress the spot price. It is expected that the market may experience a situation of "no peak season during the peak season" [3]. - Regarding supply - demand, on the demand side, the high - frequency sales data of new real - estate homes have weakened month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of new housing starts is still negative. Although there are many infrastructure projects under construction, there is still pressure on funds, and the overall project progress is slow. The concrete delivery volume still shows a year - on - year decrease, and the overall building materials demand is still weak. For coil demand, downstream consumption in industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances is acceptable, and steel mills generally have no pressure in coil orders, with a delivery period of more than 30 days. However, high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affect steel valuations. In terms of exports, the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement that will take effect on October 1, which is expected to have a significant impact on buy - order exports [3]. - In terms of valuation, steel mill profits are acceptable but at a low level, with the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils at about 100 - 200 yuan/ton. After the downstream restocking for the National Day is basically over, the long - process cost is stable, and the futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are adjusted. The market valuation is expected to remain between off - peak and on - peak electricity prices [3]. - For alloys, the supply - side contradiction of ferromanganese silicon is large, and the over - supply pressure is gradually emerging. The medium - to - long - term trend of selling high remains unchanged. The cost line of ferrosilicon is generally judged to be neutral to weak, and the medium - term strategy of selling high for ferrosilicon also remains unchanged. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the November contract [4]. - In terms of trends, the black market is expected to adjust in the short term and maintain a volatile trend in the medium term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - From July 2024 to September 2025, multiple policies related to the industrial economy were introduced, including policies for coal production verification, ten key industries' stable growth, and enterprise income tax prepayment declaration optimization [11][16]. 3.2 Market Participant and Pricing Logic Changes - In recent years, the black - market participants and pricing logic have changed significantly. In the spot market, futures and spot are deeply integrated, and basis pricing has a large market scale, with the futures market guiding or even dominating spot pricing. In the futures market, the capital capacity has increased significantly (exceeding 700 billion yuan in 2025), and the involvement of financial capital has increased price volatility. The trading and pricing logic has become "buying expectations and selling reality" [19]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - The real - estate investment continues to decline, with the year - on - year decrease in the real - estate development investment completion amount in 2025. The sales of new and second - hand houses have also decreased slightly year - on - year. The new housing starts have a large year - on - year decline, and the construction and completion areas also show negative growth to varying degrees [48][60][67]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In July 2025, 905 infrastructure projects were started across the country, with a total investment of about 179.1569 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Tibet, Anhui, and Fujian. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, and the issuance of local government special bonds has shown certain fluctuations [75]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - The investment intensity in the manufacturing industry has weakened slightly, and the entire downstream industry still faces inventory - reduction pressure. The PMI data has improved. In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from July [99][103]. 3.3.4 Machinery - The construction machinery industry ended a three - year decline in 2024 and achieved a bottom - out recovery. In 2025, the domestic replacement cycle is expected to start gradually. In July 2025, the sales of various excavators were 17,138 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. The sales of other construction machinery such as graders, rollers, and pavers also showed different trends [109][111]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; short iron ore at high prices and hold; the coking coal and coke futures prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips; sell high for ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the medium term (without chasing short positions) [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Participate in the positive arbitrage of iron ore 1 - 5 contracts at low prices; maintain a high spread between coils and rebar; pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions; hedge the risk of short positions in far - month ferromanganese silicon with long positions in near - month ferrosilicon [5]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy**: Pay attention to the closing of basis positive arbitrage and the establishment of reverse arbitrage positions for steel during the peak season [5]. - **Options Strategy**: Close the profitable wide - spread options on near - month steel contracts and continue to establish short positions in far - month wide - spread options [5].