1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [160][161] 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, CPI and PPI continued to diverge, with upstream prices continuing to decline. If trade frictions ease, the divergence between upstream and downstream prices is expected to narrow. Core CPI and food - related CPI have stabilized, indicating that consumption - promotion policies have had a positive impact on terminal consumption demand. However, trade frictions still affect upstream prices such as energy prices [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Food and Consumer Goods**: From May 5 - 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture increased by 0.81% week - on - week and 2.15% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index decreased by 5.11% week - on - week and 20.89% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline widened to 4.76%. Movie box office revenue increased by 283.76% week - on - week [2][14] - **Commodities and Energy**: Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.02% and 1.00% week - on - week respectively. The average daily price of LME copper spot increased by 1.56% week - on - week, while the average daily price of aluminum spot decreased by 0.82% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 2.39% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.48% week - on - week [2][14] - **Real Estate**: The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in April 2025 was about 229,000 square meters per day, compared with about 260,000 square meters per day in April 2024. From May 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area was about 136,000 square meters per day, compared with about 114,000 square meters per day in the same period of 2024. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the relationship between the year - on - year change of daily crude steel production and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [16][22] 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the United States - The report includes charts on important high - frequency indicators in the United States, such as the year - on - year change of electricity generation and industrial output, the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts in US federal funds futures, and the relationship between the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year [84][86] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month growth rates. The data sources include high - frequency data on crude steel average daily production, production material price index, etc. [97] 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [147][149]

Core Insights - The "Zhejiang Manufacturing" brand initiative has successfully cultivated 5,328 "Pinzi" standard enterprises and issued 7,268 certification certificates since its launch in 2014, aiming to transition from a manufacturing province to a brand-driven province [1][2] Group 1: Brand Development - The "Zhejiang Manufacturing" public brand construction started in 2014, focusing on transforming the province's image from a manufacturing hub to a strong brand province [1] - As of Q1 2025, Zhejiang has developed 3,923 standards aligned with international benchmarks and published 30 key industry standard framework guidelines [1] Group 2: International Certification and Export - Zhejiang has established a brand recognition system combining "market certification + self-declaration," forming the "Zhejiang Manufacturing International Certification Alliance" with 14 authoritative certification bodies [2] - The province has issued 649 international "Pinzi" standard certificates, covering 46 countries and regions, which has facilitated nearly $1,500 billion in exports [2] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Zhejiang Provincial Market Supervision Administration plans to promote "brand going global" initiatives, encouraging cross-border brand acquisitions, overseas trademark registrations, and international brand promotion [2]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of American consumers flying to China with empty suitcases to purchase goods reflects the strong appeal of Chinese manufacturing in the global market [1][4] - The U.S. government's imposition of high tariffs, intended to protect domestic industries, has inadvertently led consumers to seek cheaper alternatives in China, resulting in significant price increases for certain products [1][4] - Data from Alipay indicates that spending by American tourists in China has doubled, highlighting the growing trend of "reverse purchasing" [1][3] Group 2 - Popular items among American consumers include electronics, creative goods from Yiwu, trendy clothing from Hangzhou, and smart accessories from Shenzhen, showcasing the diverse offerings of Chinese markets [3] - The perception of "Made in China" has evolved from being associated solely with low prices to encompassing quality, technology, and design, indicating a shift in consumer attitudes [4][8] - The U.S. consumer research institute estimates that the cancellation of the tax exemption for small packages from China could result in a combined loss of $47 billion for businesses and consumers annually [4] Group 3 - China's policies, such as the "buy and refund" Alipay tax refund service, have facilitated foreign tourists' shopping experiences, contrasting with the U.S. government's restrictive measures [6] - The increase in seized "personal use" Chinese goods at Los Angeles airport and the rising popularity of unique Chinese products illustrate the cultural and lifestyle influence of Chinese goods beyond mere transactions [6][8] - The "reverse purchasing" trend driven by tariffs not only highlights price motivations but also reflects the robust vitality and attractiveness of the Chinese market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Yiwu, known as the world's largest small commodity distribution center, is facing challenges due to the US-China tariff war, impacting various foreign trade enterprises differently based on their reliance on the US market [1][24]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Businesses - Yiwu International Trade City hosts over 70,000 merchants, with more than 3,000 engaged in trade with the US, indicating a significant portion of the local economy is affected by US tariffs [1]. - Merchants with a lower dependency on the US market, such as those with around 10% of sales from the US, report manageable impacts due to diversified orders from other regions like Southeast Asia and Africa [1][5]. - Conversely, businesses heavily reliant on the US market, such as those with over 50% of sales from the US, face immediate challenges, needing to find alternative markets quickly to mitigate losses [10][14]. Group 2: Adaptation Strategies - Merchants are actively diversifying their product offerings and markets, with some introducing numerous new products to cater to varied international demands [3][15]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their internal capabilities, such as digital transformation and automation, to improve efficiency and reduce costs in response to tariff pressures [21][23]. - Yiwu's businesses are leveraging the "Belt and Road" initiative to expand into new markets, with significant trade volumes reported with countries involved in this initiative [20][24]. Group 3: Brand Development and Market Positioning - There is a growing emphasis on developing independent brands to escape the low-price competition and gain pricing power in the market [24][30]. - Companies like those in Yiwu are increasingly recognizing the importance of establishing their own brands to enhance product quality and market presence, moving away from being mere OEMs [26][28]. - The Yiwu Customs has introduced initiatives to support brand development, with a notable increase in brand registrations, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable and high-quality export model [30].

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

Core Viewpoint - Yiwu, known as the "world's small commodity capital," is facing challenges due to the US-China trade war, impacting its foreign trade businesses and prompting them to adapt to new market conditions [1][18]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Businesses - Yiwu International Trade City hosts over 70,000 merchants, with more than 3,000 engaged in trade with the US, indicating a significant reliance on the American market [3][8]. - Some merchants, like Mao Yeqiang, report that the US market accounts for about 10% of their sales, while others with higher dependencies are feeling the pressure from increased tariffs [5][10]. - Despite the challenges, some businesses continue to receive orders from US clients, highlighting the competitive pricing of Yiwu's small commodities [7][10]. Group 2: Adaptation Strategies - Businesses are diversifying their markets, with some shifting focus to Southeast Asia and other regions to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [5][12]. - Companies are exploring digital transformation and upgrading production processes to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with one firm reporting a potential 40% increase in production efficiency through digital upgrades [17][19]. - Yiwu's trade with "Belt and Road" countries has surged, accounting for over 66.8% of its total trade value in the first quarter of the year, demonstrating a strategic pivot towards these markets [18][24]. Group 3: Brand Development and Market Positioning - The importance of establishing independent brands has been emphasized, as many businesses lack pricing power and face challenges due to the tariff situation [21][23]. - Yiwu is actively promoting its "Yiwu China Small Commodity City" brand overseas, with initiatives already implemented in over 20 countries to help local businesses expand their international presence [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cities with GDP exceeding one trillion and counties with GDP exceeding one hundred billion are essential for regional economic development [2][4] - There are 62 counties in China with GDP exceeding one hundred billion, contributing 7.8% of the national GDP with only 1.3% of the land area [4][6] - The top ten counties by GDP are primarily located in the eastern coastal regions, with eight in this area and two in the central and western regions [8][9] Group 2 - The leading counties in GDP are dominated by Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which together account for about 80% of the total [9][12] - The emergence of new hundred billion counties is expected to continue, with 24 new counties added since 2020 [4][17] - The counties are categorized into three types: manufacturing strong counties, resource-rich counties, and counties surrounding major cities [22][30] Group 3 - The manufacturing strong counties are primarily found in developed coastal provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian [23][24] - Resource-rich counties are mainly located in the central and western regions, relying on natural resources for economic strength [30][32] - Counties surrounding major cities benefit from urban spillover effects and have strong economic ties to their respective metropolitan areas [27][35] Group 4 - The article highlights the challenges faced by smaller counties, with many experiencing population decline and economic difficulties [40][45] - It discusses the need for administrative reforms in small counties to address fiscal sustainability and population retention [46][48] - The potential for merging smaller counties is suggested as a solution to reduce administrative costs and improve efficiency [52][54]