Report Overview - Date: July 11, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: In a state of oscillation due to the tug - of - war between macro factors and fundamentals [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating as a result of the game between current reality and macro expectations [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: The pattern of oscillation may continue as inventory accumulation accelerates while warehouse receipts are relatively scarce [2][11] - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [2][14] - Polysilicon: Policy disturbances lead to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][15] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,140 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,865 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 102,155 lots, and the stainless - steel main contract was 101,032 lots [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,400 yuan, with a trading volume of 350,125 lots and a position of 326,895 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 13,281 lots [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; weekly production and inventory increased; the EU will allocate 8.52 billion euros to develop electric - vehicle batteries [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,470 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,468,586 lots and a position of 381,237 lots. The PS2508 contract's closing price was 41,345 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Yunnan Province issued a plan to promote the direct connection of green electricity [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0 [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon Report - Short - term: The price is affected by market sentiment and may be strong. The futures price rising above 8000 yuan/ton may increase the number of hedging manufacturers. The price increase above 8000 yuan/ton is more affected by sentiment, and once it exceeds 8500 yuan/ton, the supply of industrial silicon in the flood season may increase unexpectedly due to hedging by southwest manufacturers [3]. - Medium - to - long - term: It is recommended to go short. If the leading large manufacturers do not resume production, the trend may be weakly oscillating; if they resume production, it may fall unilaterally. The 8500 yuan/ton level on the disk still faces significant pressure [3]. Polysilicon Report - Short - term: The futures are still strong, trading on price - limit and policy expectations. The 36000 yuan/ton level is a short - term pressure level, and if the spot transaction price drops, the futures price may fall [47]. - Medium - to - long - term: As capacity consolidation progresses, it is a buying opportunity after the disk has fully corrected [47]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Leading large manufacturers have cut production by nearly 40%, reducing monthly output by 60,000 tons. Southwest silicon plants have复产 35 - 40 small submerged arc furnaces, increasing monthly output by about 40,000 tons. The total monthly output decreases by 20,000 tons. In July, the maximum resumption capacity of polysilicon exceeds 300,000 tons, and the monthly demand for industrial silicon may increase by about 20,000 tons. Without the resumption of leading large manufacturers, about 30,000 tons of industrial silicon will be destocked in July [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Short - term strength, medium - to - long - term potential decline [4]. - Options: Sell Si2509 - C - 8500 [4]. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both strong. Good commodity sentiment drives the futures price up, but the hedging pressure of manufacturers causes the futures to oscillate widely. The spot price has generally increased by 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 0.21% to 46,600 tons; the weekly output of polysilicon increased by 0.86% to 23,400 tons; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat at 54.6% and 53.9% respectively. The operating rate of silicone has increased to a high level since June, and it is expected to remain flat in July. The output of polysilicon is expected to continue to increase in July [12]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 0.39% to 72,000 tons. The number of open furnaces of leading large manufacturers in Xinjiang has decreased to 48, and the output has dropped significantly. In Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity price has decreased in July, and it is expected that the number of open furnaces will increase by 35 - 40 compared to early June. Overall, the weekly output in July will decrease compared to June before the resumption of large manufacturers in the northwest [21]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The total social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.85% increase. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang is 150,100 tons, a 13.91% decrease; in Yunnan, it is 26,700 tons, a 0.38% increase; in Sichuan, it is 23,300 tons, a 1.69% decrease [22]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon has increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products have weakened. The DMC profit has deteriorated again. The operating rate of aluminum alloys has remained stable. The electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have decreased, and the spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang has stopped falling [28][31][41]. Polysilicon Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon capacity consolidation is imperative and is being promoted. In the long - term, the price is basically at the bottom. In the short - term, last week's futures price increase was mainly due to price - limit and policy expectations, and manufacturers have raised their spot quotes. In July, supply increases while demand decreases, and the downstream silicon wafer price is low, making the short - term industry outlook bearish. However, due to the news of the cancellation of electricity subsidies and strong policy expectations, the short - term futures are still strong [47]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Go long in the short - term, pay attention to the 36,000 yuan/ton pressure level, and go long after correction in the medium - to - long - term [48]. - Options: Wait and see [48]. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [48]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has generally increased this week. The transaction price range of n - type re - feeding material is 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon is 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 33,500 yuan/ton. However, due to the low downstream silicon wafer price, the willingness of crystal - pulling factories to buy at high prices is weak, and the transactions are limited [62]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: Silicon wafer prices continue to weaken. The price of N - type 183 silicon wafers is 0.85 - 0.88 yuan/piece, 210R silicon wafers is 0.98 - 1 yuan/piece, and 210 silicon wafers is 1.18 - 1.2 yuan/piece. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells is 0.265 - 0.27 yuan/W, a 5.96% decrease from early June. The transaction price range of N - type 183 TOPCon high - efficiency batteries is 0.225 - 0.23 yuan/W, and 210RN is 0.24 - 0.25 yuan/W [67]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm in centralized projects is 0.642 - 0.657 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm is 0.657 - 0.672 yuan/W. The price of TOPCon distributed 182mm components is 0.666 - 0.679 yuan/W, and distributed 210 components is 0.666 - 0.679 yuan/W [69]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises have not improved. Small - scale component manufacturers find it difficult to increase sales even by reducing prices. Component enterprises generally produce according to sales and adjust their operating rates flexibly. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be reduced to 45GW [77]. - **Battery Cell Fundamental Data**: The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers has decreased by 11.53GW, a 4.8GW decrease from last week. In July, as the component production schedule decreases, the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises has been reduced to 54GW [82]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: This week, the silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 19.22GW, and the output is 13.04GW, remaining flat. The production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [87]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon output has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has increased to 273,800 tons. In July, the polysilicon output is variable. The 60,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Xinjiang that resumed production in June may increase by about 4,000 tons in July, and a 150,000 - ton new production capacity in Qinghai will start production in July. Whether the 200,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Yunnan and 50,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Xinjiang will resume production is uncertain [90].

Report Overall Summary - **Report Date**: July 9, 2025 - **Report Type**: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - **Companies Covered**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the subsequent position volume [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Emotional disturbances are increasing [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy - side measures [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,370, down 170 from the previous day. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,700, up 60 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were events like Ontario potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial - production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, the resumption of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of an Indonesian cold - rolling mill [5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,880, up 220 from the previous day. The position volume and other related data also had corresponding changes. The production in June 2025 was 7.40 million tons, with a 5.7% month - on - month increase, and the planned production in July was 7.93 million tons, with a 7.1% month - on - month increase [11][12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were production changes in different regions [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,215, up 170 from the previous day. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 38,385, up 1,870 from the previous day. There were also changes in trading volume, position volume, spreads, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The A - share market's steel and photovoltaic sectors had a涨停潮, and there were production reduction actions in the photovoltaic and cement industries [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is influenced by different factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Core view: The rise of the US dollar restricts the price increase [6]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,560 yuan with a daily increase of 0.02%; LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 dollars with a decrease of 0.58% [6]. - News: The US June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and several copper - related projects and production data were reported [6][8]. Tin - Core view: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up [9]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 268,420 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.04%; LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 dollars with an increase of 0.66% [10]. - News: A series of macro - economic news from the US and other countries was reported [11]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core view: For nickel, the support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity; for stainless steel, the inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [13]. - Fundamental data: Various price and trading volume data of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot are provided [13]. - News: There are news about potential export restrictions, new production projects, and production resumptions in the nickel industry [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [19]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are presented [20]. - News: The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and there were rumors about lithium salt factory overhauls [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core view: For industrial silicon, the sentiment is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation is magnified; for polysilicon, market news is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation intensifies [23][24]. - Fundamental data: A wide range of data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are provided [24]. - News: Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase [26]. Iron and Steel Products - Core view: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are boosted by macro - sentiment and are in a strong - side shock [28][29]. - Fundamental data: Price, trading volume, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot are given [29]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data, as well as relevant economic policies, are reported [30][31]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Core view: Both are in wide - range shocks [32]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are provided [32]. - News: Price quotes and production reduction news of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are reported [33]. Coke and Coking Coal - Core view: The anti - involution signal is fermenting, and both are in a strong - side shock [35]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of coke and coking coal are provided [35]. - News: Quotes of coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data are reported [35][36]. Power Coal - Core view: The daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes in a shock [39]. - Fundamental data: The previous trading data of power coal futures are provided [40]. - News: Quotes of power coal in southern ports and domestic production areas, as well as position - holding data, are reported [41]. Energy and Chemicals Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Core view: Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to do positive spreads on dips; for PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA; MEG is in a single - side shock market [43]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and processing fees of PX, PTA, and MEG are provided [44]. - News: Market price and production - related news of PX, PTA, and MEG are reported [45][47]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Core view: Rubber is in a shock operation; synthetic rubber's shock operation pattern continues [49][54]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of rubber and synthetic rubber are provided [50][54]. - News: Order data of tire enterprises and inventory data of synthetic rubber - related products are reported [51][55]. Asphalt - Core view: Temporarily in a shock, pay attention to geopolitical factors [57]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data, as well as inventory and production rate data of asphalt, are provided [57]. - News: Weekly production, factory inventory, and social inventory data of asphalt are reported [69]. LLDPE - Core view: In the short term, it is in a strong - side shock [70]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of LLDPE are provided [70]. - News: There was an accident at a polyethylene plant, and supply - demand analysis and inventory data are reported [71]. PP - Core view: The spot is in a shock, and the trading is dull [74]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of PP are provided [74]. - News: The PP futures had a limited impact on the spot market, and trading was weak [75]. Caustic Soda - Core view: Pay attention to the impact of liquid chlorine [77]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of caustic soda are provided [77]. - News: Supply and demand, cost, and potential production reduction news of caustic soda are reported [78]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Related Products - Core view: Palm oil rises due to the positive sentiment of US soybean oil; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation of US soybeans; soybean meal may fluctuate; soybean No.1 is in a spot - stable and disk - shock state [5][55]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Corn, Sugar, Cotton, etc. - Core view: Corn is in a shock operation; sugar is in a range consolidation; cotton's futures price is supported by the market's optimistic sentiment [59][61][62]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Eggs, Pigs, and Peanuts - Core view: For eggs, the peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling; for pigs, the short - term sentiment is strong; for peanuts, there is support at the bottom [64][65][66]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text.

2025年07月04日 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：累库格局延续，关注上方空间 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪发酵，盘面波动放大 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场消息发酵，盘面波动加剧 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 4 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,790 | 570 | 960 ...

Report Overview - Date: July 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is marginally decreasing slightly, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Spot trading is light, and it is operating weakly in a volatile manner [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream supply disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upside space should be monitored [2][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data** - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,720 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 69,295 lots, a decrease of 16,863 lots [4] - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,560 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,478 lots, a decrease of 32,573 lots [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production after a previous shutdown due to an accident [6] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue shutdown and maintenance from June to July, potentially affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the mining fiscal system bill [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 62,980 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 955 lots, a decrease of 17,144 lots [8] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,780 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 398,387 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 61 yuan/ton [8] - Hainan Mining signed a lithium - spodumene off - take agreement [10] - **Trend Intensity** - - 1 [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data** - Industrial Silicon: The Si2509 closing price was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,230,307 lots, a decrease of 147,023 lots [11] - Polysilicon: The PS2508 closing price was 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, a decrease of 159,686 lots [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to cut production by 30% to break the "involution - style" competition [11][13] - **Trend Intensity** - Industrial Silicon: 1; Polysilicon: 1 [13]

2025年06月30日 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | -350 | 2,200 | 560 | 530 | -9,550 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,620 | -15 | 115 | 70 | - ...

fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 现货价格：工业硅现货价格受到大厂减产消息提振有所上报。内蒙 553 价格 8350 元/吨，上调 50 元/吨，四川 553 价 ...

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...