就在大批量散户投资者们开始蜂拥入场之际，围绕那些最热门金属与矿业类股票的炙手可热股票市场交易热潮迅速走向崩 塌。 不过，在巴克莱银行的资深策略师团队看来，上周五关于最热门的那些贵金属与矿业类股票的抛售浪潮把基本面具有坚实支 撑力的工业金属也一并拖下水，反而可能提供"至关重要的错杀式逢低切入点"，其催化剂来自AI基础设施建设与全球政府财 政扩张等更偏基本面的牛市驱动力。 统计数据显示，iShares白银ETF交易价格在上周五创下2006年首次亮相以来的最大跌幅，而纽约证券交易所的Arca金矿指数 则创下2008年以来的最大降幅。散户投资者们越来越大规模地参与贵金属交易可能会引发更剧烈的大宗商品以及股票波动， 一些市场观察人士表示，这"只会造成更大规模的波动"，并可能迅速推动价格上涨或下跌。贵金属暴跌的局面周一仍在继 续，黄金价格一度下跌10%。白银价格一度暴跌16%，之后有所回升。 在上周五，黄金、白银以及铜价大幅下挫，部分触发因素是特朗普提名立场长期鹰派的沃什担任美联储主席引发美元反弹。 这场暴跌终结了此前一轮猛烈的涨势——那轮涨势将白银与黄金价格不断推至历史新高。 而就在暴跌发生前一天，专注于散户资金流的V ...

证券研究报告/策略研究 增持策略周报（20260126-20260201） 投资要点 ➢ 本周A股增持事件情况 2026年1月26日至2026年2月1日，共4家上市公司发布重要股东拟增持公告，具体情 况见表1。2026年1月26日至2026年2月1日，共8家上市公司发布管理层增持公告， 其中增持金额占总市值比例超过0.05%的公司情况具体见表2。综合增持、业绩增速 及行业基本面，重点关注金田股份、片仔癀、三诺生物： 1、 金田股份：控股股东拟增持+公司拟回购，彰显公司发展信心 公司于2026年1月29日盘后公告，公司控股股东宁波金田投资控股有限公司计划自 2026年1月30日起12个月内，增持金额不低于5,000万元，不超过10,000万元，拟增 持金额均值占总市值的比例为0.36%。 公司作为国内产业链最完整、品类最多的铜及铜合金材料龙头，同时深耕稀土永磁材 料，两大核心业务协同驱动。公司产品深度覆盖新能源汽车、清洁能源、芯片算力、 机器人等前沿科技领域；公司亦是国内再生铜利用量最大的企业之一，实现再生铜全 产业链闭环，满足全球客户绿色低碳发展要求。 2、 片仔癀：控股股东拟增持，彰显对公司长期价值信心 公 ...

金、银贵金属市场的波动风险，正在迅速蔓延整个大宗商品市场。 2月2日，除了上周末大跌的黄金、白银以外，铜、铝、锌等基本金属与原油、燃料油等品种也出现大幅下跌。截至当日收盘，沪金2604合 约大跌15.73%，沪银、铂、钯、铜、铝等多达12个商品期货出现跌停。 如此大范围的集体跌停走势十分少见，而以上"国际定价"类商品的系统性回落，也显然受到了一些共性的影响。 其中最为明显的，当属近两日美元指数的短期上行。1月30日，凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，其主张的"缩表+降息并行"颠覆了市 场对货币宽松的预期，使得美元指数阶段性止跌反弹，引发了包括贵金属、原油等大宗商品的剧烈波动。 不过，就国内期货市场而言，因为前期以黄金为代表的商品出现快速拉涨，整体风险相对可控。 仅以某头部期货公司为例，2月2日的金、银期货投机保证金比例已经上调至30%和32%，其他工业金属也增加至18%以上，多保持在相关 品种单日涨跌幅的2倍左右。 这意味着，即便出现类似于伦敦银单日下跌26%的极端行情，多头持仓的投资者也不至于出现"爆仓"。 "国际定价"品种领跌 这是一次以黄金、白银暴跌为开端，并逐步向工业金属、石油化工等领域蔓延的系统性 ...

证券之星消息，2月2日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌8.41%，铜陵有色领跌。当日上证指数报收于4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于 13824.35，下跌2.69%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603271 | 永杰新材 | 46.04 | 5.09% | 9.43万 | | 4.32亿 | | 600768 | 宁波富邦 | 18.49 | 3.64% | 16.90万 | | 3.15亿 | | 601702 | 华峰铝业 | 26.57 | 0.87% | 24.93万 | | 6.56亿 | | 002824 | 和胜股份 | 23.42 | 0.82% | 20.85万 | | 5.01亿 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 11.66 | 0.52% | 8.35万 | | 9632.97万 | | 000688 | 围城矿业 | 26.74 | -0.22% | 34.47万 | | 9.36亿 | | ...

(20260126-20260201 ) 证券研究报告·策略周报 2026年2月2日 行业轮动 TF策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@jrjzq.com.cn 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 lidu@jrjzq.com.cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159731 | 石化ETF | 16.60 | | 继续持有 炼化及贸易(27.28%) | 1 | 1 | | 1 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline of over 1% across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.32% to 4063.54 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.18% [3][4] - A total of 3496 stocks fell, while only 1844 stocks rose, with 87 stocks hitting the daily limit up [4] Sector Performance - The gold stock index dropped by 8.2%, while indices for non-ferrous metals, industrial metals, and A-share resources all fell by over 5% [1] - The coal index decreased by over 4%, and the semiconductor index fell by 3% [1] - Conversely, the liquor sector showed resilience, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye rising by 2.64% and 2.68% respectively [5][6] - The banking sector also saw gains, with CITIC Bank rising over 3% and several other banks increasing by more than 1% [9][10] - The electric grid equipment sector experienced a "limit-up" trend, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [11] Liquor Sector Insights - Kweichow Moutai's stock price reached 1438 CNY, with a market capitalization of 18008 billion CNY [5][7] - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose to 1710 CNY per bottle on January 30, before retreating to 1630 CNY on February 1 [8] Banking Sector Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposed allowing various institutional investors, including public funds and bank wealth management products, to participate as strategic investors in stock issuances [10] Electric Grid Equipment Sector - The electric grid equipment sector is experiencing a surge due to increased demand for power transformers, with many factories operating at full capacity [11] Precious Metals and Industrial Metals - The precious metals sector faced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, including major players like Zhaojin Mining and Sichuan Gold [13][14] - The industrial metals sector also saw substantial drops, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper recording limit down [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]

如果你在2026年1月30日打开了股票账户，很可能被一片环保色晃到了眼。这一天，A股的有色金属板块仿佛被按下了集体跳水键。 数据显示，当天A股有色金属板块指数暴跌7.80%，贵金属板块跌幅更深，达到8.87%。更夸张的是白银概念板块，单日跌幅高达9.03%。这 意味着，如果你持有相关板块的基金或个股，资产可能在一天之内就缩水了近十分之一。 个股方面更是惨烈。南山铝业、铜陵有色、白银有色等近30只股票被牢牢封在跌停板上。就连行业里的"老大哥"江西铜业和中国铝业，股 价也一度触及跌停线。整个板块绿油油一片，几乎找不到上涨的股票 国内期货市场同样风雨交加。上海黄金交易所的黄金T D品种，报价跌到了1127.08元/每克，单日跌幅4.64%。而白银T D的走势更像是一 场"雪崩"，价格跌至24764元/每千克，跌幅高达14.35%。这意味着，如果你在前一天买入白银期货，保证金可能已经亏光了。 国际市场的贵金属投资者同样没有逃过这场风暴。伦敦现货黄金的价格从高位回落，报在5008.06美元/盎司。伦敦现货白银的价格波动则剧 烈得多，从前几日接近117美元的高位，一路下探至97.796美元/盎司附近。 这场突如其来的全面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices, triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced selling across various asset classes [3][4][5]. Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices fell by over 12%, dropping below $5000 per ounce, while silver experienced a maximum drop of over 35%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years [3][4]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a vicious cycle of forced liquidations [7][8]. Federal Reserve Nomination Impact - Kevin Warsh's nomination is perceived as a hawkish shift, altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and monetary policy, which previously supported rising gold prices [5][6]. - Warsh's stance on reducing the Fed's balance sheet and being cautious about inflation has led to a significant rebound in the dollar index and a sharp correction in commodity markets [6]. Technical Indicators and Market Conditions - Prior to the crash, gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a technical correction [10][11]. - The volatility in the market was further amplified by algorithmic trading and forced liquidation, which triggered additional selling pressure [11]. Retail Market Response - Retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at higher prices, as retailers often do not accept returns for precious metals [12][13]. Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued forced selling and volatility, while long-term views suggest a potential shift towards a de-dollarization trend, which may support gold prices in the future [14][16]. - Despite the recent crash, gold and silver still recorded significant gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].