Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

都让这场降息大戏充满了变数，究竟是什么支撑起市场对降息的强烈预期？看似板上钉钉的决策背后，又暗藏着哪些未被忽视的风险？ 在美联储的政策决策框架中，劳动力市场与通胀数据向来是两大核心锚点，如今，前者的降温迹象已成为推动降息的最关键力量。 此前因美国政府长期停摆导致数据发布延迟，美联储一度陷入数据迷雾，但随着9月就业报告等关键数据的补发，劳动力市场的疲软态势逐渐清晰。 贝莱德智库的分析指出，当前美国劳动力市场已陷入不招聘、不裁员的停滞状态，自年初以来就业增长持续放缓，劳动力供需两端同时收缩，其中移民数量 的急剧下滑是供给端减弱的重要原因。 临近12月美联储议息窗口，全球金融市场的目光再度聚焦于美国货币政策的转向。 从市场押注概率飙升至机构集体发声，降息似乎已成为大概率事件，但劳动力市场的降温信号、潜在的政策主导权之争，以及明年经济前景的不确定性。 既然劳动力市场给出了明确的降息信号，市场对降息的信心也已拉满，那是否意味着这场降息毫无悬念？ 答案或许并非如此，在政策落地的最后关口，一则关于美联储主席人选的热议，正悄然引发华尔街的担忧，甚至可能影响政策的推进节奏。 这种停滞状态下，一个值得关注的现象是，尽管就业增长放 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储降息预期持续升温。 受一系列疲软的就业数据影响，交易员正加大力度押注美联储将进一步降息。高盛在 最新的报告中指 出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，美联储12月降息25个基点已经基本板上钉钉。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月5日7:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至87%。 与此同时，关于美联储下一任主席人选的话题正持续引发市场热议。有分析人士警告称，即便白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文·哈西特最终被任命为下一届美联储主席，他可能也没有能力实现美国总统特朗普所希 望的快速降息，因为他不具备足够的威信在美联储内部促成共识，因此难以凭借一己之力推动快速降息。 另外，哈西特在最新的讲话中表示，他认为美联储下次会议可能会降息，预计将降息约25个基点。 高盛最新研判 而就业市场方面，高盛对美国就业市场的前景展望较为悲观。 高盛估算，美国9月的就业增长数量仅为3.9万人。而且其他指标显示，美国10月份又出现了新的裁员情 况。 Jan Hatzius表示，受过高等教育的劳动者就业市场的萎缩情况尤为显著。今年9 ...

来源：券商中国 美联储降息预期持续升温。 受一系列疲软的就业数据影响，交易员正加大力度押注美联储将进一步降息。高盛在最新的报告中指 出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，美联储12月降息25个基点已经基本板上钉钉。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月5日7:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至87%。 与此同时，关于美联储下一任主席人选的话题正持续引发市场热议。有分析人士警告称，即便白宫国家 经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特最终被任命为下一届美联储主席，他可能也没有能力实现美国总统特朗普 所希望的快速降息，因为他不具备足够的威信在美联储内部促成共识，因此难以凭借一己之力推动快速 降息。 另外，哈西特在最新的讲话中表示，他认为美联储下次会议可能会降息，预计将降息约25个基点。 高盛最新研判 高盛研究公司首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新发布的报告中写道："虽然美联储在今年12月很可能会降 息，但2026年的货币政策前景则较为难以预测。目前的假设是，美联储将在2026年上半年放缓宽松步 伐，同时美国的经济增长将重新加速且通胀将降温。" Jan Hatzius表示，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December due to weak employment data [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Traders are betting on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Goldman Sachs indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has risen to 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 13% [3][5]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate cuts in January 2026, with potential further cuts in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, with only 39,000 jobs added in September and new layoffs occurring in October [8]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 has risen to 8.5%, a 70% increase from the lowest point in 2022, indicating a deteriorating job market for this demographic [8]. - The adverse employment conditions may negatively impact consumer spending, potentially leading to further rate cuts in the future [8]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Leadership - There are concerns regarding the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with analysts doubting his ability to implement rapid rate cuts desired by President Trump [3][9]. - Market participants express worries that Hassett's leadership could compromise the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is a significant concern for investors [9][10]. - Discussions among Wall Street investors indicate skepticism about Hassett's capability to gain consensus within the currently divided Federal Reserve Board [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index ended November nearly flat, but signs of recovery are emerging as volatility decreases and market breadth improves [1] - Market breadth, measured by the five-day average of advancing and declining stocks in the S&P 500, rebounded from a low of -150 to around +150 before Thanksgiving, indicating a significant shift in market participation [1] - The "volatility panic index" is currently around 5, slightly above its three-year average and significantly lower than its peak earlier in November [1] Group 2: Systematic Strategies and Positioning - Approximately $16 billion in S&P 500-related sell-offs occurred over the past month, exacerbating previous market declines [3] - Following the market's digestion of this risk-off phase, the expectation for the upcoming month has shifted to a slight net buying scenario of about $4.7 billion [3] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains after a period of volatility, with the Dow Jones up 3.18%, S&P 500 up 3.73%, and Nasdaq up 4.91% [3] Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Multiple top investment banks have released forecasts for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a consensus that the index will continue to rise due to AI investment trends, a shift to accommodative monetary policy, and broadening profit growth [4] - JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank set ambitious targets for the S&P 500, with JPMorgan forecasting a target of 7,500 points, potentially exceeding 8,000 points if the Fed continues to lower interest rates [4][5] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 14% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 next year, driven by AI's growth potential extending beyond major tech stocks to other sectors [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Analysts from Morgan Stanley express optimism about sectors such as consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, industrials, and small-cap stocks, anticipating that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end [6] - UBS forecasts that the AI-driven market rally will persist until 2026, with a target of 7,500 points for the S&P 500, supported by strong corporate earnings growth [6] - Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks despite a sluggish macroeconomic growth environment [7]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing a robust September jobs report indicating economic resilience [1] - The strong employment data suggests that the summer economic slowdown may have been overstated, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate attributed to a rise in labor force participation rather than layoffs [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates in January, April, and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25%, consistent with previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, believes that the report indicates potential employment growth remains weak, suggesting the Fed needs to continue cutting rates to fulfill its full employment mandate, though uncertainty remains about immediate actions [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that the September jobs report is crucial for the Fed's focus on inflation and maintaining a somewhat restrictive policy stance, emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy tight to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target [2] - Many Fed officials have indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts this year due to inflation remaining above the 2% target, with analysts suggesting that without stronger evidence of a need for urgent support in the job market, a more cautious approach may prevail [2] Group 3 - Analysts note that upcoming fiscal stimulus measures, including personal tax cuts and accelerated depreciation allowances, may strengthen the U.S. economy next year, further supporting arguments against excessive rate cuts [3] - The minutes from the October 28-29 meeting indicate that Fed staff have raised their outlook for next year, reflecting expectations of stronger potential output growth and improved financial conditions [3] - John Roberts, former Fed research department deputy director, suggests that changes from the Inflation Reduction Act could boost economic growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points in early 2026, potentially lowering the unemployment rate and preventing at least one anticipated rate cut by the Fed [3]

•纽约梅隆银行：亚洲外储充足，进口覆盖率处于有利水平，区域抗风险能力强劲 转自：新华财经 •纽约梅隆银行（BNY）指出，尽管部分国家已动用储备稳定汇率，但整体外储仍处高位，区域内各国 进口覆盖率维持在"非常有利"的水平，抗风险能力较强。 •高盛策略师指出，2025年美元与VIX指数（美股波动率指标）的关系发生显著反转，过去五年二者正 相关（恐慌时美元走强），如今却常同步下跌，显示美元作为传统避险资产的吸引力正在减弱。过度关 注美元与标普500的相关性会掩盖其"挥之不去的脆弱性"，而这种脆弱性在美元与VIX的负向联动中更 为清晰，尽管近期相关性略有回归"正常"，但结构性变化值得警惕。 •德意志银行分析师表示，英伟达第三财季业绩显著超预期，在AI计算、网络、软件及系统领域持续领 跑，与同行差距或进一步拉大。管理层预计2025年初至2026年底数据中心相关收入将达约5000亿美元。 基于强劲增长动能，分析师已将英伟达2026–2027财年收入及每股收益预期上调"低双位数百分比"，并 强调其在人工智能基础设施领域的主导地位日益巩固。 •截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数为23.2万，与9月水平基本持平，未现恶化 ...

香港交易所的锣声频频敲响，一家家企业成功上市的背后，都离不开专业保荐机构的保驾护航。据最新数据报告显示，2025年1-10月，共有81家公司 登陆港股市场，其中78家通过IPO方式上市。这些上市项目的背后，是37家券商投行的专业保荐服务。 【港股IPO指南】如何选择靠谱的保荐机构？百惠金控怎么样？ 一、港股保荐机构格局 中资券商在香港IPO市场占据主导地位，成为企业赴港上市的首选合作伙伴。根据专业机构的研究报告，2025年1-10月，中金公司以26单保荐业务位居 榜首，中信证券以23单紧随其后，华泰国际则以15单位列第三。从更长的时间维度看，中金公司的领先优势更为明显。2022年至今，中金公司参与了 73家港股IPO的保荐业务，稳居保荐人排行榜首位。外资券商如摩根士丹利、高盛等同样在港股IPO市场占有一席之地，但中资券商的市场份额持续提 升。2025年前五个月，中资券商在港股IPO保荐机构中占比超过五成，成为市场主力。 二、百惠金控市场表现 在许多投资者询问"哪家港股机构靠谱"时，百惠金控以其在IPO发行领域的专长，成为市场关注的机构之一。 三、如何选择保荐机构 面对"港股 IPO 保荐机构怎么选"找专业机构 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The current economic backdrop for Japan under Prime Minister Kishi is characterized by moderate recovery amidst ongoing re-inflation, contrasting with the deflationary stagnation faced by former Prime Minister Abe [3] - Kishi's economic strategy emphasizes demand-side management to combat external inflation while also pursuing structural supply-side reforms to stimulate new growth sectors [3] Fiscal Policy - Kishi plans to implement an "expansionary but responsible fiscal policy," with expectations of an increase in Japan's fiscal deficit ratio by 2026, although the overall expansion may be limited due to debt risks [3] Monetary Policy - Despite a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2026, with a potential increase of 30 to 50 basis points, while also slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction [3] Industrial Policy - Kishi aims to enhance strategic investments in 17 key industries over the next five years, focusing on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding, quantum technology, biotechnology, aerospace, and cybersecurity [3] Market Impact - The "Kishi trade" observed in October indicates a strengthening of Japanese stocks, while the yen and Japanese bonds weaken, with expectations of a bullish stock market and continued upward pressure on bond yields [4] - The yen is projected to remain under pressure in the short term, with a potential for slight appreciation if U.S. dollar credit declines [4] Automotive Industry - The wholesale prices of passenger vehicles have stabilized in October, with an average discount rate of 18.5%, reflecting a shift from price competition to refined operations in the domestic market [7] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintain a high average discount rate of 26.3%, while new energy vehicles show a more stable discount rate of 12.8%, indicating a dual advantage in cost control and market demand for new energy products [7][8] Investment Fund Trends - As of October 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.02 trillion yuan, with a net outflow observed in stock and bond funds, while money market funds saw an increase [12] - Individual investors' risk appetite has been affected by market volatility, leading to a decline in shares of ordinary stock and mixed funds, while QDII and FOF funds have gained traction as safe-haven investments [13] - Mixed FOF products have performed well, with a 63.10% increase in new issuance, as they provide a balance of risk and return for retail investors [14]