华尔街顶级策略师表示，在美联储本周预期中的降息之后，美国股市连创新高的上涨行情面临暂时熄火 的风险。摩根士丹利、摩根大通和奥本海默资产管理公司的策略师警告称，随着投资者将注意力转向潜 在的经济放缓，更为谨慎的基调可能会取代目前的乐观情绪。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sustainability of the dollar system and the so-called "dollar trap," emphasizing that while the dollar's dominance is being questioned, there are currently no viable alternatives to replace it [2][22]. Group 1: Formation of the "Dollar Trap" - The "dollar trap" is supported by three pillars: the necessity for emerging economies to hold foreign reserves, the unique status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven, and the lack of alternative safe assets [2][3][12]. - Emerging markets have accumulated significant foreign reserves, with their share rising from 37.5% to 67.2% between 2000 and 2013, driven by the need for self-insurance and currency stability [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the "Dollar Trap" - Emerging countries voluntarily enter the "dollar trap" by accumulating dollar reserves to pursue export-led growth, but they face continuous devaluation risks [18]. - The "dollar trap" leads to significant potential losses for countries holding U.S. debt, as their currencies appreciate against the dollar, and U.S. inflation erodes the real purchasing power of dollar assets [19][20]. Group 3: Current Changes in the "Dollar Trap" - Since 2015, emerging markets have shown improved financial stability and reduced the necessity to accumulate foreign reserves, indicating a shift in their economic models [24]. - The credibility of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset is weakening due to deteriorating economic fundamentals and fiscal discipline in the U.S., raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [26][27]. - The TINA (There Is No Alternative) framework is being challenged as emerging markets explore alternatives to the dollar, including the yuan, gold, and bitcoin [29][30].

（文章来源：中国基金报） 高盛主经纪商（Prime Services）数据显示，全球对冲基金对亚洲股票市场风险偏好连续4个月高企。8 月，全球对冲基金对中国股市（包括A股和港股）的净买入量为自2024年9月以来的新高。高盛主经纪 商平台观测到的数据显示，8月，全球对冲基金的中国股票仓位上升76个基点，至两年来的高点。 人民财讯9月10日电，高盛研究部最新数据显示，8月，全球对冲基金对中国的净买入创去年9月以来新 高；对冲基金对中国的毛头寸达到两年来新高。 ...

格隆汇9月4日｜据市场消息，高盛将在一笔私募资金交易中购买10亿美元的T. Rowe Price股票。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, hedge funds reduced their positions in August and remain hesitant to re-enter the U.S. stock market in September [3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Historically, September is one of the most challenging months for U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones average declining by 1.1% since 1897 and a less than 50% chance of positive returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [5]. - In August, the Dow Jones index rose by 3.2%, marking the best August since 2020, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. The Russell 2000 index saw a significant rise of 7%, the best August in 25 years [6]. Group 2: Institutional Caution and Risks - Multiple structural concerns are causing institutions to remain cautious, including heavy valuations and positions. UBS predicts that by 2025, retail investors' direct stock holdings will reach 265% of their disposable income, exceeding the 243% peak in 2021 [8]. - There is a risk of cross-market interest rate linkage, with high yields on 30-year government bonds in Japan and the UK indicating increased pressure in the bond market. A crisis in one market could lead to adjustments in others, as seen in the global asset adjustments following Japan's unexpected rate hike in August 2024 [8]. - Systematic hedge funds are nearing saturation in risk exposure, with a narrower "buffer zone" compared to previous years, particularly as volatility typically rises in the fall [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Influences - The U.S. stock market's short-term trajectory will be influenced by the upcoming non-farm payroll data for August and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [9]. - While the probability of a rate cut has increased, the key uncertainty lies in whether this will be a dovish or hawkish cut, depending on forthcoming inflation and employment data [9].

Core Insights - The latest inflation data indicates that the economic heat in the U.S. has not significantly dissipated, with core price indicators continuing to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [1][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the highest level since February, and up 0.1 percentage points from June [1][3] - The core PCE increased by 0.3% month-over-month, while the overall PCE rose by 0.2%, with year-over-year growth at 2.6%, all aligning with market expectations [3] Economic Indicators - Despite high inflation, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have not diminished, with analysts suggesting that policymakers may focus more on labor market performance [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if employment data shows weakness, he would support more aggressive rate cuts, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy [3][5] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, believes there is still a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, as the Fed weighs the risks of persistent inflation against a weakening job market [5] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending showed resilience, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.5% month-over-month in July, and personal income rising by 0.4%, indicating that purchasing power remains relatively unaffected by rising prices [5] - Service prices increased by 3.6% year-over-year, becoming the main driver of inflation, while goods prices only saw a slight increase of 0.5% [5] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7% year-over-year, which has somewhat alleviated overall inflationary pressures [5] Future Outlook - As the Federal Reserve's next meeting approaches, attention will be focused on upcoming employment and inflation data, which may determine whether the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle as scheduled [7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) experienced a significant increase of 4.9% today, driven by a substantial rise in net profit for the first half of the year, which surged over 90% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - CICC's net profit for the first half of the year saw a year-on-year increase exceeding 90% [1]

Core Insights - The July Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. rose to 2.9% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - The overall PCE index, including food and energy, increased by 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, also meeting expectations [1] - Personal income in July increased by $112.3 billion, a growth of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditures rose by $108.9 billion, a growth of 0.5%, both in line with forecasts [3] Market Expectations - The July PCE report did not alter market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [6][7] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist noted that the Fed has opened the door for rate cuts, but the extent will depend on the labor market's performance relative to inflation [6] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point cut in September, citing concerns over worsening market conditions and the need for proactive measures [8]

Core Insights - The essence of corporate evolution mirrors Darwin's theory of evolution, where companies adapt to environmental pressures through both natural and artificial selection mechanisms [1] - Huaxing Capital exemplifies "active evolution" by successfully recovering its business and achieving significant financial growth [1] Group 1: Business Recovery and Strategy - The new management team has successfully revitalized Huaxing Capital's investment banking business, which is crucial to its identity [2] - In response to the rapid iteration of the new economy, Huaxing has developed a habit of proactively predicting trends, leading to a strong recovery in investment banking revenue [2] - The firm has strategically focused on hard technology and emerging industries, assisting several innovative companies in securing financing [2] Group 2: Investment Management and Performance - Huaxing's investment management business has also shown strong performance, with revenue of approximately 2.37 billion yuan and a 252% increase in operating profit [3] - The firm emphasizes "post-investment empowerment," which is as important as the investment itself, ensuring long-term value creation [3] - The exit amount of 1.3 billion yuan from funds and the performance of main funds with a DPI exceeding 100% reflect Huaxing's commitment to long-term value [4] Group 3: Web3 and Future Growth - Huaxing is positioning itself as a bridge between Web2 and Web3, aiming to become a leader in the digital asset era [7] - The firm has made significant investments in Web3, including a $100 million budget to establish a digital financial ecosystem [8][9] - Huaxing's strategic partnership with YZi Labs aims to explore new opportunities in the Web3 space, enhancing its capabilities in digital asset management [9][10] Group 4: Conclusion - Huaxing Capital's turnaround in the first half of 2025 is a testament to its evolutionary capabilities, demonstrating a consistent response to market changes through proactive adaptation and strategic foresight [11] - The company's focus on creating value for enterprises and investors positions it well for future challenges in the evolving economic landscape [11]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in Meitu increased from 5.72% to 6.29% as of August 20, 2025 [1]