化肥价格稳中略涨，其中尿素与前一周基本持平，三元复合肥上涨0.4%。 成品油批发价格基本平稳，其中92号汽油、95号汽油均与前一周基本持平，0号柴油上涨0.1%。 有色金属价格小幅回落，其中铝、锌、铜分别下降0.9%、0.9%和0.3%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.3%，聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降2.1%和 1.3%。 橡胶价格继续上涨，其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别上涨0.9%和0.8%。 煤炭价格略有波动，其中动力煤、无烟块煤每吨793元和1167元，分别上涨0.6%和0.2%，炼焦煤每吨 1073元，下降0.3%。 钢材价格略有上涨，其中螺纹钢、热轧带钢、高速线材每吨3337元、3490元和3523元，分别上涨 0.5%、0.4%和0.2%。 商务大数据显示，11月17日至23日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）上涨0.2%。 ...

生产资料市场：基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.3%，聚丙烯、甲醇分 别下降2.1%和1.3%。橡胶价格继续上涨，其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别上涨0.9%和0.8%。煤炭价格略 有波动，其中动力煤、无烟块煤每吨793元和1167元，分别上涨0.6%和0.2%，炼焦煤每吨1073元，下降 0.3%。钢材价格略有上涨，其中螺纹钢、热轧带钢、高速线材每吨3337元、3490元和3523元，分别上 涨0.5%、0.4%和0.2%。化肥价格稳中略涨，其中尿素与前一周基本持平，三元复合肥上涨0.4%。成品 油批发价格基本平稳，其中92号汽油、95号汽油均与前一周基本持平，0号柴油上涨0.1%。有色金属价 格小幅回落，其中铝、锌、铜分别下降0.9%、0.9%和0.3%。 商务大数据显示，11月17日至23日，全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）下降0.1%，生 产资料市场价格比前一周上涨0.2%。 食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.62元，下降0.9%，其中莴笋、西兰花、菠菜分别下降 8.0%、7.7%和3.8%。禽产品批发价格小幅下降，其中鸡蛋、白条鸡分别下降1.1%和0. ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-28 半钢胎开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15280元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨；NR主力合约12205元/吨，较前一日变动+40 元/吨；BR主力合约10400元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10330元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 宽幅震荡 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，沪胶期货呈现区间震荡整理态势，主力合约 2601 在 15000~15600 元/吨宽幅波动。展望后市， 多空分歧较大，预计沪胶将延续宽幅震荡格局。 上周末，美国 9 月非农就业数据正式公布，新增就业人数大幅不及市场预期，失业率进一步攀升至 4.4%，直接引发全球金融市场风险偏好降温。同时，尽管数据疲软短期放缓了美元走强节奏，但市场对全 球需求萎缩的预期显著升温。由于沪胶需求端高度依赖轮胎出口，全球经济走弱将直接削弱海外轮胎市场 需求，进而拖累基本面支撑力度。短期来看，美国非农数据引发的宏观情绪弱势仍将持续影响沪胶市场。 若后续全球经济数据未改善，沪胶大概率维持弱势震荡格局，需警惕需求预期恶化带来的进一步下行风险。 当前东南亚主产区仍处于割胶旺季，泰国东北部胶水产量稳步释放，但南部降雨偏多，导致割胶作业 间歇性受阻，一定程度上限制了产量增长。国内市场方面，云南产区将于 12 月初陆续停割，海南产区也 将在 12 月中下旬逐步结束割胶工作，国内供应将趋于收紧。尽管国内胶水产量占全球比重不足 6%，但停 ...

记者丨金珊 编辑丨吴桂兴 11月28日，A股早盘探底回升，三大指数集体翻红。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.21%，深成指涨0.72%，创业板指涨0.71%。 沪深两市半日成交 额不足1万亿， 全市场超3500只个股上涨。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3883.46 | 12967.66 | 3052.87 | | +8.20 +0.21% | +92.47 +0.72% | +21.57 +0.71% | | 跌 1631 | | 涨3569 > | | A 1" 1 mahan 15 1 - 13 miles about about a con lumn | 1 | person I l any a con a con a con an a come of | 板块方面，海南、大消费、锂电池等板块涨幅居前，医药、游戏等板块跌幅居前。 今日早盘，海南自贸概念盘中异动拉升， 海南瑞泽4天3板 ，海南橡胶、神农种业、海南高速、海马汽车、欣龙控股等跟涨。消息面上，今年 12月18日，海南自由贸易港将正式封关运作。 | 海南自贸区 0 | | | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 15,280 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.13% to 15,280 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,134 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.20% to 2,114 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 94 yuan/ton. With the improvement trend of methanol supply - demand expectations, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.8 yuan/barrel, and the closing price rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment. The Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week, mainly due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, caused by insufficient orders, slow shipment, and equipment transformation. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market maintained a good development trend, and the monthly production and sales reached a new high in the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and may even reach 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons compared to 1.8802 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 184,600 tons. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4,500 tons compared to 369,200 tons last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 60. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 426.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.519 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month rebound of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 7, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 74,309 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 28,991 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,539 contracts or 31.68% compared to the average in September. As of November 18, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 177,827 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 13,249 contracts and a significant increase of 58,416 contracts or 48.92% compared to the average in October [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,280 yuan/ton | +85 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,114 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 447.6 yuan/barrel | +2.6 yuan/barrel | - 36.1 yuan/barrel | - 2.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, rubber futures inventory, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [15][28][40]

2024年化学、橡胶、塑胶及非金属矿产制品业的总收益为294亿港元，而营运开支和雇员薪酬合共为250 亿港元。盈余总额为44亿港元，占该行业2024年总收益的14.9%。行业增加价值较2023年上升7.3%至69 亿港元。 2024年纸制品、印刷及已储录资料媒体的复制业的总收益为105亿港元，而营运开支和雇员薪酬合共为 94亿港元。盈余总额为12亿港元，占该行业2024年总收益的11.0%。行业增加价值较2023年轻微下跌 0.7%至36亿港元。 除制造业外，此项统计调查亦包括从事电力及燃气供应，以及污水处理、废弃物管理及污染防治活动的 公司。 2024年制造业的营运开支及雇员薪酬共达2833亿港元，较2023年上升24.9%；2024年平均每间公司的营 运开支及雇员薪酬，较2023年上升27.1%至4470万港元。 2024年制造业的盈余总额（即总收益扣除营运开支及雇员薪酬）为167亿港元，较2023年上升1.3%； 2024年平均每间公司的盈余总额，较2023年上升3.1%至260万港元。制造业的盈余总额占2024年总收益 的5.6%，较2023年下跌1.2个百分点。 2024年制造业的行业增加价值为37 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For RU and NR, with the decrease of rainfall in Thailand, the futures price has dropped. The inventory in Qingdao Port and social inventory in China are increasing, and the increase rate has accelerated recently. The end - of - season in Yunnan is not conducive to the output of RU deliverable products, while Hainan may have an increase in raw materials. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, and the inventory of dark rubber in China may continue to increase. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand difference may be beneficial to the spread expansion between RU and NR and the reverse arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For BR, the upstream device has some changes, but the short - term supply change is limited. The production profit of private enterprises has improved, and the supply is expected to remain abundant. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,195 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025: The export volume was 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025: The import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC September 2025 report forecast: The global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025: The total export volume (excluding compound rubber) was 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export volume of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export volume to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export volume of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - China's passenger car market in October 2025: The retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of growth. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU passenger car market in September 2025: The sales volume increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: RU basis was - 395 yuan/ton (- 20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (+ 70), NR basis was 826 yuan/ton (+ 15); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (- 100). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.91 Thai baht/kg (- 0.46), Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.85), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+ 16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (- 68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+ 504) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 100), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 9,880 yuan/ton (- 40), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,403 yuan/ton (unchanged) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 72.64% (+ 2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9]