| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 演失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF)：上海 | 14250 | 13850 | 300 | 2.15% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -155 | -ਰੇਟ | -60 | -63.16% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 13850 | 350 | 2.53% | | | 非标价差 | -205 | -195 | -10 | -5.13% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.30 | 47.50 | -0.20 | -0.42% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.30 | 54.50 | -0.20 | -0.37% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 1 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周四油价下跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘下跌 1.81 美元至 66.57 美 | 震荡 | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.65%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 68.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.21%。SC2508 以 512.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.5 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 1.44%。OPEC 下调了 2025 年至 2029 年期间所有年份 | | | | 的石油需求增长预测。该报告预计，从现在到 2050 年，全球石油 | | | | 1.23 10 需求将增长约 19%，达到 亿桶/日。OPEC+在讨论从 月份 | | | | 开始暂停进一步增产，市场或将 OPEC+讨论停止增产解读为"市 | | | | 场无法消化更多供应"的信号；一旦需求高峰期结束，可能会存 | | | | 在供应过剩的风险。当前来看，油价震荡运行为主，需进一步关 | | | | 注美国关税政策对需求的影响， ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-11 半钢胎开工率环比回升，同比仍偏低 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14405元/吨，较前一日变动+360元/吨。NR主力合约12400元/吨，较前一日变动+305 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14350元/吨，较前一日变动+350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14200元/吨， 较前一日变动+320元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1750美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1690美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11600元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 QinRex掌握的最新预估数据显示，2025年泰国橡胶产量料增加2%至489万吨，2024年初步数据为480万吨。其中， 北部地区增2.9%至29.9万吨；东北地区增1.3%至142万吨；中部地区增0.9%至40.2万吨；南部地区增2.4%至278万吨。 1-5月，越南出口混合橡胶合计34.1万吨，较去年的31.1万吨同比增加10%。其中，SVR3L混合 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

宏观消息面： 1、商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动。 2、当地时间 7 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，美国将对进口铜征收 50% 的关税，自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起生效。 3、中国汽车工业协会数据显示，1 至 6 月份，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销量均超过 1500 万辆，同比 均实现 10%以上较高增长。 文字早评 2025/07/11 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 4、北京：拓宽财产性收入渠道 鼓励上市公司合理提高分红率。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.32%/-0.77%/-0.95%/-1.71%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.41%/-1.31%/-2.15%/-4.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.60%/-2.73%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.42%/-0.54%/-0.60%/-0.56%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金 ...

（原标题：元创科技深主板IPO，聚焦橡胶履带产品，客户集中度较高） 格隆汇获悉，近日，元创科技股份有限公司（简称"元创科技"）提交了公开发行股票并在主板上市招股 说明书申报稿，拟冲击深主板，保荐人为国泰海通证券。 股权结构方面，2022年、2023年、2024年（简称"报告期"），王文杰为公司控股股东及实际控制人。截 至招股说明书签署日，王文杰通过直接持股方式持有公司82.27%股份，通过星腾投资控制公司8.66%股 份，合计控制公司股份的90.93%。王大元系王文杰之一致行动人，为王文杰之父，其通过直接持股方 式控制公司4.31%股份。王文杰与一致行动人王大元合计控制公司股份的95.24%。 另外，元创科技还存在应收账款回收的风险。报告期各期末，公司应收账款余额分别为4.47亿元、3.55 亿元和4.80亿元，占同期营业收入的比重分别为35.43%、31.09%和35.56%。报告期内，公司存在应收账 款逾期的情形，逾期比例分别为20.71%、13.24%和13.52%。若客户经营恶化或回款延迟，可能导致坏 账风险上升。 本次IPO，元创科技拟募资约4.85亿元，投向生产基地建设项目、技术中心建设项目和补充 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月10日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -ਰੇਟ | -32 | -60 | -171.43% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13850 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -195 | -135 | -60 | -44.44% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.30 | 47.50 | -0.20 | -0.42% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.30 | 54.50 | -0.20 | -0.37% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 7 月 10 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围支撑 能化维持强势 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 14405 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.86%至 14405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小至 870 元/吨。由于国内宏观氛围增强并盖过胶市供需结构偏弱格局，叠加上 半年国内新车产销数据好于预期。在积极因素支撑下，预计后市国内 沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强格局运行。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月10日 FF FREET F 量剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确也及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 IF2509 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,但测试关键 IH2509 A股测试关键位置,上方遇阻 股指 IC2507 位置附近需谨慎操作。考虑买入低执行价看跌期权 后卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛市价差策略。 IM2509 T2509 T2509短期波动区间或在108.8-109.2。单边策 TF2509 国债 资金利率筑底叠加股债跷跷板效应,期债短期或呈窄幅震荡 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 TS2509 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 我感 TL ...