| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300121 | 阳分布套 | 15.13 | 6.32% | 43.13万 | | 6.44亿 | | 831834 | 三维装备 | 14.63 | 3.83% | 2.98万 | | 4307.87万 | | 832225 | 利通科技 | 25.55 | 2.82% | 5.42万 | | 1.36亿 | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 49.81 | 2.74% | 17.31万 | | 8.36亿 | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 36.90 | 2.33% | 16.73万 | | 6.12亿 | | 001207 | 联科科技 | 26.67 | 2.22% | 7.75万 | | 2.04亿 | | 301300 | 远翔新材 | 40.08 | 1.86% | 1.80万 | | 7093.54万 | | 871694 | 中裕科技 | 21.88 | 1.77% | 2.22万 | | 4831.16 ...

【8月28日上期所橡胶品种仓单数据公布】8月28日，上期所发布橡胶品种仓单及变化数据。丁二烯橡胶 期货仓库仓单2490吨，与上个持平；厂库仓单9770吨，环比减少210吨。天然橡胶期货仓单178050吨， 环比增加780吨；20号胶期货仓单45662吨，与上个持平。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

下 灰安期货 BR - 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 12200 120000 15000 12100 100000 12000 13000 80000 11900 60000 11000 11800 40000 11700 9000 20000 11600 7000 11500 12合约 现货 09合约 10合约 11合约 8/27 -- 8/26 -- 8/25 -- 8/20 -- 7/28 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR09-10 2500 600 800 2000 400 600 1 500 400 200 1000 200 500 0 -200 0 -20Q -400 -500 al -400 -600 -1000 -600 -800 - -1500 -800 - 2024 -- 2024 2025 2023 -- 2023 · 2025 2023 · 2024 - 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR10-11 18000 600 - 18000 16000 16000 400 14000 14000 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment is positive, driving up rubber prices. However, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, limiting the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the 01 contract's range referring to 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas, and consider short - selling at high levels if the raw material supply is smooth [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was larger, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short when the volatility is low [3]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will weaken. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Logs - The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and the receiving value range. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the follow - up fundamentals. The demand is currently firm, maintaining at the level of 60,000 cubic meters. The inventory continues to decline due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. It is expected that the overall shipment in September will be the same as that in August. The new warehouse receipts being registered may suppress the disk. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The weekly output has rebounded significantly, and the inventory is in a continuous pattern. The current weekly output corresponds to an obvious excess of demand. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic rush installation in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity has slowed down, and the float glass capacity has remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Glass**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The middle - stream continuous shipment suppresses the spot price, and manufacturers are forced to cut prices. The market negative feedback continues. The near - month 09 contract has a weak reality, and the far - month 01 contract has a weak expectation. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is continuously low. There is a certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long - run, at the bottom of the real estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. High - level short positions established earlier can be closed for profit, waiting for new logical drivers [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,900 yuan, a decline of 0.33% from August 26th. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 75 yuan to - 860 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.02% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan, a rise of 4.02%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan, a rise of 5.56%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 45 yuan, a decline of 4.15% [1]. Production and Consumption Analysis - In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 7.05% increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 64.76%, a 1.67 - percentage - point increase. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, an 8.16% decrease; tire exports were 66.65 million units, a 10.51% increase. The total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, a 2.47% increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,121 tons to 616,731 tons, a 0.50% decrease; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1,612 tons to 44,857 tons, a 3.47% decrease [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 2,295 yuan to 310 yuan, a 115.62% increase [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 2,295 yuan to 48,690 yuan, a 4.50% decrease. The spread between the current month and the next - month contract increased by 160 yuan, a 266.67% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer output was 12.29 GW, a 1.57% increase; the polysilicon output was 2.91 kilotons, a 0.68% decrease. Monthly: The polysilicon output was 101 kilotons, a 5.10% increase; the polysilicon import volume was 0.12 kilotons, a 47.48% increase; the polysilicon export volume was 0.21 kilotons, a 3.92% decrease [3]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 kilotons to 24.9 kilotons, a 2.89% increase; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.39 GW to 17.41 GW, a 12.07% decrease; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 lots to 6,880 lots [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 9,300 yuan, a 0.53% decrease; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 80 yuan to 775 yuan, a 7.19% decrease [4]. Inter - month Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 16.67% increase; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 12 yuan, a 25.00% increase [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 338.3 kilotons, a 3.23% increase; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 150.3 kilotons, a 15.21% decrease; the Yunnan industrial silicon output was 41.2 kilotons, a 153.86% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.31 kilotons to 12.01 kilotons, a 2.65% increase; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 kilotons to 3.19 kilotons, a 1.59% increase [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2509 decreased by 9.5 yuan to 792 yuan, a 1.19% decrease; the 09 contract basis increased by 9.5 yuan to - 42 yuan [6]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, an increase of 0.002; the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan [6]. Supply (Monthly) - The port shipment volume was 1.733 million cubic meters, a 1.51% decrease; the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, an 11.32% decrease [6]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - The national log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease; the Shandong inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, a 0.32% increase [6]. Demand: Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly) - The national daily outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, a 2% increase; the Shandong daily outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, a 3% decrease [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan; the glass 2505 contract price increased by 1 yuan to 1,267 yuan, a 0.08% increase; the 05 contract basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 127 yuan, a 0.79% decrease [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan; the soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,375 yuan, a 0.15% decrease; the 05 contract basis increased by 2 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 7.41% increase [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 88.48%, a 1.33% increase; the weekly soda ash output was 771.4 kilotons, a 1.33% increase; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass market inventory increased by 18 kilotons to 6,360.6 kilotons, a 0.28% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 17 kilotons to 1,910.6 kilotons, a 0.89% increase [7]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year Monthly) - The new construction area growth rate was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area growth rate was 0.05%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease; the completion area growth rate was - 0.22%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease; the sales area growth rate was - 6.55%, a 6.50 - percentage - point decrease [7].

刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。当前油价已经迎来左侧布局良机，基本面将支撑当前价格， 而如若地缘溢价重新打开，则油价重获高度空间。 甲醇 能源化工日报 2025-08-28 原油 2025/08/28 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.55 美元，涨幅 0.87%，报 63.86 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.55 美元，涨幅 0.82%，报 67.8 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 16.40 元，跌幅 3.36%， 报 472.4 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 2.39 百万桶至 418.29 百万桶， 环比去库 0.57%；SPR 补库 0.78 百万桶至 404.20 百万桶，环比补库 0.19%；汽油库存去库 1.24 百万桶至 222.33 百万桶，环比去库 0.55%；柴油库存去库 1.79 百万桶至 1 ...

文字早评 2025/08/28 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：推动手机等终端设备直连卫星加快推广应用 为广大地面移动通信用户提供基于卫星的话 音、短消息业务； 2、摩根士丹利最新发布的报告显示，全球对冲基金加大了对中国股票的押注力度，8 月有望创下自 2 月 以来单月买入规模之最; 4、中际旭创：预计未来两个季度 1.6T 将持续量产和规模出货 部分液冷产品已开始送样给客户。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.20%/-0.53%/-1.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.36%/-1.00%/-2.41%/-4.20%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.67%/-1.38%/-2.94%/-5.10%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.01%/0.16%/0.25%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后，市场在短期可能会出现震荡加剧的现象。 但从大方向看，仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约上涨 ...

首席点评： 经济数据好转 政策效果初现 国家统计局数据显示， 7 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 1.5% ，降幅较 6 月份收窄 2.8 个百分点，连续两个月收 窄。其中，高技术制造业利润由 6 月份下降 0.9% 转为增长 18.9% ，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增速较 6 月份加快 2.9 个百分点，引领作用明显。 乘联分会披露， 8 月 1-24 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 72.7 万辆，同比增长 6% ，环比增长 7% ，全国乘用车新能源零 售渗透率 56.6% ，今年以来累计零售 718.2 万辆，同比增长 27% 。 重点品种：国债、油脂、双焦 双焦： 昨日夜盘双焦主力合约呈震荡走势，两者持仓环比基本持平。钢联数据显示，上周铁水产量环比基本持平，螺纹产 量环比下降，总库存继续增加、但增幅环比有所减小，表需环比小幅增加，整体五大材延续累库、但表需环比增加。短期 来看，需求端的铁水产量并未因限产扰动出现下降、维持 240 万吨以上的高位水平，双焦需求维持韧性，但上游开始累 库、竞拍流拍率上行、蒙煤通关量高位、正处需求淡季的钢材与同期低位的近远月价差会对盘面走势形成压力，判断当前 多空博弈加 ...

据曼谷邮报8月27日报道,分析师们说，尽管今年头7个月泰国出口增长强劲，达 到13%，但预计在美国对进口商品征收19%的关税之后，泰国的出口增长速度 将会放缓。泰国7月份的出口额达到286亿美元，同比增长11%，环比增长 0.2%，超出市场预期的9.6%增长。据Kasikorn Securities（KS）称，强劲的业 绩主要是由制造业推动的，特别是电子产品组件，如计算机和集成电路。不包 括黄金、石油相关产品和武器，泰国出口同比增长了16.6%，增速较6月份的 15.6%有所加快。今年迄今为止的累计增长率为14.4%。7月份工业出口同比增 长了14%，其中电子元件增长了35.2%，计算机（增长61%）和集成电路（增 长55%）的出口增长尤为显著。电器产品和橡胶制品也带动了增长，同比分别 增长了9.9%和9.7%。与此同时，农产品出口继续支撑整体发货量，冷冻水果、 加工家禽、宠物食品和蔗糖的强劲增长。相反，大米和橡胶出口连续第三个月 出现收缩。泰国大米在2024年9月印度解除出口禁令后面临激烈竞争，而菲律 宾暂停进口以保护国内价格。KS预测，在对中国出口增加的支持下，家禽业 将成为泰国货运的一个亮点。大华证券持 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 27 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏空情绪主导 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15760 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 1.35%至 15760 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 955 元/吨。胶市多空分歧，宏观预期改善博弈产业因子利空，预计后市国 内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡整理的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅下跌的走势，期价最高上涨至 2396 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2371 元/吨，收盘时小幅下跌 1.70%至 2372 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 125 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格走低，叠加甲醇供需结构偏弱，预 计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 原油：本周三国内原油期货 2510 合约呈现放量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15760 -85 | -125 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 12615 -30 | -175 -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3145 | 50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 137392 | -1722 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51988 | -6908 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -33175 | -876 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9834 | -1489 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 177270 | -20 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 45662 14900 | 1310 -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15050 | -50 | ...