| 《八》国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月14日 | 操作评级 | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | 苹果 | | ★☆★ | F03096483 Z0017474 | 木材 | | | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货一口价报价持稳;2025/26北疆机采31~41级不含谈污29/29/杂3.5内一口价报价在 14400~14500公定上下，含淡污低于该价，疆内自提。2025/26年度新棉收购主流均价空间较窄,整体以6-6. 3 元/公斤为主，新棉理论成本13500-14400公定不 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-10-14 ，装置产能将逐步释放，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率预计将明显走高。ru2601合约短线预计在14750-154 00区间波动，nr2512合约短线预计在11850-12350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 14845 | -95 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 11990 | -50 | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | 15 | 0 20号胶11-12 ...

证券之星消息，10月14日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌3.47%，震安科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3865.23，下跌0.62%。深证成指报收于12895.11，下跌2.54%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出2.88亿元，游资资金净流入2.03亿元，散户资金净流入 8529.4万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300320 海达股份 | | 1617.57万 | 12.41% | 45.59万 | 0.35% | -1663.16万 | -12.76% | | 300121 阳谷华泰 | | 1142.93万 | 3.64% | 668.09万 | 2.13% | -1811.03万 | -5.76% | | 001207 联科科技 | | 748.41万 | 6.50% | 236.39万 | 2.05% | -984.79万 ...

截至发稿，三维股份市值为120亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中科院博导带队，中国固态电池技术又有重大突破！ （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，三维股份（SH 603033，收盘价：11.6元）10月14日晚间发布公告称，三维控股集团股份 有限公司持股5%以上股东吴善国先生持有公司股份约1.47亿股，约占公司总股本的14.24%，吴善国先 生累计质押股份5030万股，约占其所持公司股份总数的34.25%，约占公司总股本的4.88%。吴善国先生 及其一致行动人叶继艇先生合计持有公司股份约1.78亿股，约占公司总股本的17.27%，吴善国先生及其 一致行动人叶继艇先生累计质押公司股份5810万股，约占其持有公司股份总数的32.63%，约占公司总 股本的5.63%。 2025年1至6月份，三维股份的营业收入构成为：聚酯化纤占比34.23%，BDO及电石占比32.76%，橡胶 行业占比24.6%，混凝土枕占比4.78%，其他占比3.62%。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-14 青岛港口库存继续下降，但降幅放缓 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14940元/吨，较前一日变动-375元/吨；NR主力合约12040元/吨，较前一日变动-310 元/吨；BR主力合约10920元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14300元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨，较前一 日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1820美元/吨，较前一日变动-30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1705 美元/吨，较前一日变动-35美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年9月，我国重卡市场销量约为10.5万辆（批发口径，含出口和新能源），同比增长约82%，环比增长15%，创 下近年同期新高。 2025年9月中国天然及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口量74.2万吨，环比增加11.75%，同比增加20.85%；1-9月累计进口 量611.50万吨，累计同比增加19. ...

能源化工期权 2025-10-14 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 10 月 14 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-14） | | | | 铁矿：特朗普关税施压情绪加重，黑色品种可能会跟随海外金融资产先计 价悲观情绪再做修复。供应端，部分自媒体报道称因铁矿石定价争议升级， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 对禁止进口 BHP 等矿山矿石的消息产生新的担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 到相关通知，另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情绪，后续关注供应端的实际 | | | | | 影响情况。近期钢厂盈利面走低，但依旧处于近年偏高水平，日均铁水产 | | | | | 量也维持 240 万吨水平，短期很难看到负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求， | | | | | 若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库存持续累积，钢价下跌带动利润走 | | | | | 低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目前铁矿石单边驱动不强，价格走势 | | | | | 相对强于成材。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 煤焦：关税预期再起，引发全球市场的剧烈反应，黑色 ...

一 - REAL TECH 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月14日 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 欢迎关注微信公众号 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2512 | | 周末,特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示将再度大幅提 高对我国关税。参考4月关税冲突演变,市场风险 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 贸易摩擦扰动,股指受挫低开 | 偏好短期内可能受到压制,使得A股亦受挫下行, 但此轮双方大概率仍以增强谈判前的强势态度为 | | | | IC2512 IM2512 | | 主,摩擦性质大于实质冲突,股指以先跌后反弹为 | | | | | | 主,中长期不改上行大趋势。推荐可适当轻仓卖出 MO2512-P-7000附近看跌期权,收取权利金。 | | | | | | 接下来债市影响线索较为复杂,一方面关注基金赎 | | | | | | 回费新规落地情况,二是关注市场风险偏好变化, | | | | T2512 TF2512 | | 三是中美关系仍可能出现反复。不过当前资金面基 调宽松和长短期限利差回归正常 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-14 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | | 偏弱 | 偏弱 | 偏弱 | | | | 合成胶 2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶偏弱运行 | | | 偏弱 | 偏弱 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 参考观点：偏弱运行 参考 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by rumors of Iranian plant shutdowns and some warehouses not accepting Iranian ships' cargo, the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened from a low level, and the futures price has stabilized. However, the actual fundamentals are weak, with high domestic supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the spot price has dropped less. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is weak. It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Rubber**: Affected by macro factors, the rubber price has broken down in the short - term. Referring to the April 2025 trend, there may be a 1 - 3 - day decline cycle. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - build the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [17]. - **PVC**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, but the basis has strengthened. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [24]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price has declined. The cost - end support has weakened, but the inventory is high. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the price may remain in a low - level shock [27]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price has declined. The supply pressure is high, the demand has a seasonal rebound, and the inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [30]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **PTA**: The supply side has a high maintenance volume, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic and overseas device loads are high, the supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 12.50 yuan/barrel, a 2.68% decline, at 453.70 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed a decrease in arrival inventory by 0.29 million barrels to 211.81 million barrels, a 0.14% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, a 0.69% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels, a 0.70% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, waiting for OPEC's reaction to falling oil prices [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 55 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 2.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan to 2342 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 42. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32 to - 12 [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to weak fundamentals but limited downside space [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong spot price decreased by 10 yuan, and the Henan spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 13 yuan to 1610 yuan, and the basis was - 100. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 to - 68 [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of low valuation and weak drive [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.112 million tons, a 0.1 - million - ton decrease, a 1% decline [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term operation, and partially re - build the hedge position [17]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4721 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 111 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2450 yuan/ton. The overall开工率 was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, an 8.4 - million - ton increase, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons, a 5.5 - million - ton increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The styrene spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 6700 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price decreased by 53 yuan to 6690 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 129.25 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase. The Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54%, a 0.87% decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The price may stop falling due to the decreasing port inventory and the upward - repair potential of the BZN spread [24]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 54 yuan to 6983 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 7040 yuan/ton. The basis was 57 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 million tons to 48.86 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 5.40 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 44.36%, a 0.23% increase [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level shock due to weak cost - end support and expected seasonal demand recovery [27]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 29 yuan to 6693 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 6730 yuan/ton. The basis was 37 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, the trader inventory increased by 6.11 million tons to 26.11 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 51.76%, a 0.05% increase [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market [30]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract decreased by 46 yuan to 6458 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 791 dollars. The basis was 16 yuan, a 15 - yuan decrease. The 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan, a 4 - yuan increase. The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted, and one Japanese plant was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, a 2.1 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a 0.019 - million - ton increase month - on - month [32]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high load, expected inventory accumulation, and neutral - low valuation [33]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4510 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 4440 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan, a 6 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving loads were unchanged. The social inventory on October 10 was 2.16 million tons, a 0.053 - million - ton increase [33]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of high supply - side maintenance, limited processing fee space, and weak terminal signs [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4111 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 1 yuan to 4207 yuan. The basis was 69 yuan, a 1 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase. The supply - side load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 8 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.9 million tons per day from October 11 - 12. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [35]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [36].