Summary of the Spandex Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The spandex market has experienced a price decline since its peak in 2021, with current prices for 40D specifications ranging from 22,000 to 24,000 yuan per ton, indicating intense competition within the industry [1][3][4] - The spandex industry has seen significant capacity expansion since Q4 2021, with total capacity expected to reach 1.54 million tons by the end of 2025, although market oversupply may delay some new capacity from coming online [1][5] - The industry is facing challenges such as slowing demand growth, product homogenization, and difficulties in cost control, leading to significant losses due to high depreciation costs [1][6][7] Key Market Dynamics - The average operating rate in the spandex industry for the first seven months of 2025 was 81.8%, a year-on-year decrease, with leading companies maintaining high utilization rates while others operated at lower rates [1][8] - Spandex production growth slowed to 1.3% in the first half of 2025, with total production nearing 530,000 tons [1][9] - Demand growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan period averaged around 12%, with fluctuations influenced by factors such as the pandemic and changing consumer preferences [1][10] Supply and Demand Trends - Global spandex capacity is projected to reach 1.95 million tons by the end of 2025, with China accounting for approximately 80% of this supply [3][13] - The import volume of spandex yarn decreased by about 30% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the U.S.-China trade war and increased domestic production capacity [14] - The spandex market is expected to see demand growth of 8% to 9% in the coming years, driven by population growth and trends in health and fitness [24][26] Financial Performance and Challenges - The cash flow situation in the spandex industry has been under pressure, with average cash flows for key products declining from 2021 to 2025 [22] - The average cash flow for 40D spandex is close to the breakeven point, with processing fees varying significantly among companies [4][22] - The industry is experiencing a significant inventory level, with stocks close to 50 days, similar to historical lows [16] Future Outlook - The spandex industry is expected to see a capacity growth rate of around 12% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, but this growth is anticipated to slow down in subsequent years [23][26] - The industry may face further consolidation, with older production facilities being phased out and new investments focusing on differentiated products and cost management [19][27] - The potential for the spandex industry to recover from its current low point and return to a high-growth cycle is acknowledged, with a focus on upstream investment opportunities [27][28]

Group 1 - The spandex industry is experiencing significant capacity exits, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation. Korean Taekwang Group announced the suspension of some spandex production lines at its Chinese subsidiary starting July 14, 2025, marking the first closure of a spandex plant in China by the group [1][10][11] - Xiaoxing Spandex has already shut down 8 production lines by the end of 2023, with plans to close 2 more in July 2025 and an additional 2 by March 2026, ultimately ceasing operations by the end of 2026. The core raw material PTMG (polytetramethylene ether glycol) has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in costs due to high international oil prices, but domestic companies have achieved over 80% localization of PTMG, reducing costs to 60% of imported products [1][11][12] - In 2024, the proportion of domestic spandex procurement by Chinese sports brands surpassed 75% for the first time, with leading companies like Anta and Li Ning collaborating with spandex manufacturers to create a closed-loop ecosystem from R&D to production. Foreign brands have seen their market share shrink to less than 12% [2][11][12] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange saw a weekly increase of 0.10%, ranking third among five major industries. The rubber and plastic products sector rose by 1.36%, while textile manufacturing fell by 3.08% [3][19][20] - Notable individual stock performances included Guangxin Technology (+8.66%), Kaida Catalysis (+8.26%), and Yinuowei (+8.16%), indicating strong market activity within the chemical new materials sector [3][23][24] - The price trends for chemical products showed a 1.5% decrease in Brent crude oil prices, while TDI prices surged by 23% and MDI prices increased by 1.8% [27][29][35]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with prices and spreads still stabilizing, while demand is expected to improve with government policies aimed at economic recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a bottoming phase, with most chemical prices and spreads still in a stabilization process [1] - Domestic capacity is gradually being released, leading to a significant slowdown in supply growth [1] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively certain demand, such as agricultural chemicals and the civil explosives industry benefiting from western development [1] Group 2: Key Recommendations - Emphasis on long-term value of leading companies in the chemical sector, as core assets are expected to see profit and valuation recovery [1] - Recommended leading companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Huafeng Chemical, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, New Hecheng, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Subsector Insights - Agricultural chemicals show rigid demand, with steady growth in grain planting area and recovery in compound fertilizer volume and profit [2] - The civil explosives industry is driven by domestic demand, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, with increasing concentration benefiting leading companies [2] Group 4: New Material Opportunities - The domestic replacement of chemical new materials is accelerating due to trade tariffs and anti-monopoly pressures [3] - Key areas include adsorption separation materials, lubricating oil components, OLED materials, and high-end photoresists, with specific companies recommended for investment [3] Group 5: Price Recovery Potential - Certain sectors may see profit improvements as supply growth slows and policy constraints are anticipated, particularly in organic silicon and spandex industries [4] - The petrochemical sector may present strategic opportunities following a potential bottoming of oil prices, with recommendations for strategic layouts in refining and downstream polyester filament industries [4]

Group 1: 华峰化学 - Company decided to terminate the acquisition of 100% equity in Zhejiang Huafeng Synthetic Resin Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Huafeng Thermoplastic Polyurethane Co., Ltd. due to insufficient shareholder approval [1] - The decision was made based on prudence, as the proposal did not receive more than two-thirds of the valid voting rights at the shareholders' meeting [1] - Company will continue to promote related equity injection work and strictly fulfill asset injection commitments [1] Group 2: 中荣股份 - Actual controller and chairman Huang Huanran has been placed under residential surveillance by the police [2] - Other board members and senior management are performing their duties normally, and the board of directors is operating as usual [2] - Company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of paper printing and packaging products [2] Group 3: 密尔克卫 - Three shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by a total of up to 2% of the company's shares through block trading [3] - The reduction includes 143.63 million shares, 97.65 million shares, and 75.03 million shares, representing 0.91%, 0.62%, and 0.47% of the total share capital respectively [3] - The reduction period is from June 6, 2025, to September 5, 2025, due to personal funding needs [3] Group 4: 舒泰神 - Subsidiary Jiangsu Beijietai Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has obtained a drug production license from the Jiangsu Provincial Drug Administration [4] - The license allows for the production of therapeutic biological products, specifically for registered declaration use [4] - The license is valid until May 7, 2030, and is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's current performance [4] Group 5: 捷顺科技 - Company won the bid for the "Chongqing Beautiful Sunshine Home and other public rental housing supporting parking space operation project" [5] - The project includes four public rental housing supporting parking lots with a total of 13,335 parking spaces [5] - The minimum guaranteed revenue for the project is quoted at 40.43 million yuan per year, with a total contract amount expected to exceed 100 million yuan [5] Group 6: 综艺股份 - Company signed an investment cooperation intention agreement to acquire control of Jiangsu Jilai Microelectronics Co., Ltd. through cash capital increase or share transfer [6] - Jilai Micro primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of power semiconductor chips and devices [6] - The transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] Group 7: 东山精密 - Subsidiary DSBJ PTE. LTD. plans to acquire 100% equity of French GMD Group for approximately 100 million euros (about 814 million yuan) [7] - The acquisition aims to advance the company's globalization strategy and enhance its market share in the automotive parts sector [7] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of electronic circuit products and precision components [7] Group 8: 诺诚健华 - Company reported a net profit of 17.97 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 142 million yuan in the same period last year [8] - The first quarter revenue reached 381 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 129.92% [8] - The company focuses on the research, production, and commercialization of innovative drugs [8] Group 9: 凯美特气 - Shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares through centralized bidding and/or block trading [9] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 20.86 million [9] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [9] Group 10: 海创药业 - Controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares through centralized bidding and block trading [10] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 1.98 million [10] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [10] Group 11: 高争民爆 - Controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares through centralized bidding and block trading [11] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 828,000 [11] - The reduction is due to the company's funding needs [11] Group 12: 金埔园林 - Two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by a total of up to 1.91% of the company's shares [12] - The reductions include 183.93 million shares and 167.73 million shares [12] - The reasons for the reductions are asset optimization and personal funding needs [12] Group 13: 掌趣科技 - The largest shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares through centralized bidding or block trading [13] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 27.2 million [13] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [13] Group 14: 美凯龙 - Company announced that its director and general manager has been placed under investigation and detention by the local supervisory committee [14] - Other board members and senior management are performing their duties normally, and daily operations are unaffected [14] - The company specializes in managing and operating self-operated and franchised shopping malls [14] Group 15: 新强联 - Major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.89% of the company's shares through centralized bidding and block trading [15] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 717,490 [15] - The reduction is due to operational needs [15] Group 16: 日月明 - Shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares through centralized bidding [16] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 80,000 [16] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [16] Group 17: 同有科技 - Major shareholder and vice president plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.53% of the company's shares [17] - The total number of shares to be reduced is 730,850 [17] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [17] Group 18: 爱尔眼科 - Subsidiary successfully acquired 60% equity and specific debt of Shenzhen Guangsheng Digital Technology Co., Ltd. for 650 million yuan [18] - The transaction constitutes a related party transaction [18] - The acquired asset will serve as long-term medical premises for the subsidiary [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in active dyes (+10%) and PTA (+3.17%), suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies related to these products [4][20]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Huaitong Co., which is expected to benefit from the application of modified plastics in the robotics sector, and Runtong Co., which may gain from the rising prices of active dyes [5]. Industry Performance - In the first week of May, the chemical sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 0.50%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 0.49% [2][12]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector stands at 24.05, which is lower than the average PE of 11.90 since 2015 [2][12]. Sub-industry Trends - Among the 15 sub-industries, five saw increases, with daily chemical products leading at +8.85%, while five sub-industries experienced declines, with synthetic leather dropping by -8.89% [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: active dyes (+10%), PTA (+3.17%), and butadiene (+2.86%) [4][20]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by +73.47% and the PTA spread by +39.52% [4][36]. Inventory Changes - Key products with notable inventory changes include potassium chloride (-17.88%) and epoxy propane (-8.96%), indicating shifts in supply dynamics [5][56].

Summary of the Spandex Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spandex industry, particularly the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions and the current market dynamics affecting supply and demand in the spandex sector [2][15][22]. Key Points and Arguments - **Demand Growth**: Spandex demand is projected to grow by 20% in 2023 and 12% in 2024, driven by products such as sun-protective clothing and sports underwear [2][11]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: Despite the growth in demand, there is a persistent supply-demand mismatch leading to intense competition and declining prices, with many companies reporting net losses [2][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Global spandex production capacity is expected to reach 1.75 million tons by the end of 2024, with Asia accounting for 94% of this capacity, primarily driven by China [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: The price of spandex in China has been declining, with the 40D specification expected to drop to 24,000 RMB per ton by the end of 2024 [3][7]. - **Trade Impact**: The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have led to a decrease in China's exports to the U.S., affecting the spandex demand within the textile and apparel sectors [15][17][18]. - **Inventory Levels**: By the end of 2024, spandex inventory levels increased by 11%, averaging 50 days of stock, indicating a buildup due to lower demand and production adjustments [10][19]. - **Market Segmentation**: The highest demand for spandex comes from circular knitting, accounting for nearly 40% of consumption, followed by package yarn [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Raw Material Costs**: The upstream raw materials for spandex production, such as PTMEG and pure MDI, are experiencing significant cash flow losses, with BDO and PTMEG reporting losses of approximately 1,700 RMB/ton and 1,200 RMB/ton, respectively [3][6]. - **Future Outlook**: The spandex industry is expected to face challenges from trade wars, cost pressures, and market competition, necessitating a focus on policy changes and market dynamics [8][22]. - **Technological Advancements**: There is a growing emphasis on integrating green technologies, such as bio-based and biodegradable materials, to enhance sustainability within the industry [23]. - **Consumer Trends**: Post-pandemic trends indicate a shift towards comfort and functionality in clothing, which is expected to support spandex demand in the coming years [28]. Conclusion The spandex industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by growth in demand, significant supply challenges, and external pressures from trade policies. Companies are encouraged to adapt to these dynamics while exploring innovative solutions to enhance their competitive edge in the market.

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Performance - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows a significant decline, with the CSI 300 down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1]. Industry Performance - The top five performing industries yesterday included textiles and apparel (+1.448%), beauty and personal care (+1.014%), telecommunications (+0.971%), banking (+0.897%), and diversified industries (+0.742%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were defense and military (-1.17%), non-ferrous metals (-0.866%), utilities (-0.801%), steel (-0.580%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.537%) [1]. Communication Industry - The satellite internet construction in China is gradually taking shape, with significant developments in the commercial aerospace industry [10]. - On April 1, 2025, China successfully launched a satellite for internet technology testing, marking a step towards the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks [12]. - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan aims to deploy 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and 1,296 satellites globally by 2027, with a long-term goal of 15,000 satellites by 2030 [13]. Coal Mining Industry - China Jushi (600176.SH) reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance, with revenue reaching 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.49% [16]. - The company’s glass fiber yarn sales reached a record high of 3.025 million tons in 2024, driven by structural optimization and market expansion [17]. Real Estate and Construction Industry - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) ranked first in equity sales and land acquisition, with a steady growth in commercial income [21]. - The company reported a revenue of 1,851.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while its equity sales amounted to 3,107 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [22][23]. Food and Beverage Industry - China Feihe (06186.HK) achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a proposed dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share [27]. - The company’s ultra-high-end product series continues to drive growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in the infant formula sector [28]. Chemical Industry - Shengquan Group (605589.SH) reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.87% [37]. - The company is expanding its high-frequency and high-speed resin varieties, indicating a robust growth trajectory [38]. Light Industry - Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, supported by strong customer relationships [31]. - The company’s overseas revenue growth is a significant driver of its overall performance [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company Newland (000997) with a projected dynamic PE of 25-30 times for 2025, indicating a reasonable value range of 34.75-41.70 CNY [6][33] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the spandex industry driven by rising demand from leisure and sportswear, predicting a supply gap of 32,500 tons on average from 2025 to 2027 [5][23] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in the photovoltaic industry, supported by recent price increases in distributed components and favorable government policies aimed at optimizing energy structure [5][26] Summary by Sections Macro Analysis - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a rebalancing of leverage structures, with government financing increasing while corporate financing remains low, reflecting a broader trend of macro leverage adjustment [4][18] Industry and Theme Highlights - In the chemical sector, spandex demand is expected to grow significantly, with a projected average supply gap of 32,500 tons from 2025 to 2027, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.26% in the sportswear segment [5][23] - The renewable energy sector is witnessing a price increase in distributed components, indicating a robust market performance and a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry [5][26] Key Stocks and Other Commentary - Newland is noted for its comprehensive embrace of AI applications, enhancing merchant operations and smart terminals, with projected revenues of 8.273 billion CNY in 2024, growing to 10.038 billion CNY by 2026 [6][33] - The report suggests that the spandex industry will benefit from the increasing demand for leisure and sportswear, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][22]