迎接繁荣的起点，1 月如何布局？20251231 西部证券策略团队对 2026 年的 A 股市场有哪些预期？ 摘要 美联储降息及潜在 QE 将推动跨境资本回流中国，修复实体部门现金流 量表和资产负债表，为中国经济带来繁荣机遇。关注有色金属、新消费 和高端制造等受益行业。 西部证券策略团队预计 2026 年 A 股市场将创新高，波动性放大，有色 金属、新消费、高端制造等顺周期板块将表现突出，紫金矿业、华峰铝 业等公司具备投资机会。 坚定看好未来两到三年铜和铝市场，供给端紧张，需求稳定即可推动价 格上涨。工业金属是首选，其中铜和铝最被看好。 紫金矿业作为全球第三大铜矿公司，受益于铜价上涨和产量增长，预计 2026 年营收可达 800 亿，市值有望达到 1.6 万亿。 华峰铝业质地优良，产能扩张谨慎，具备 20%-25%的 ROE 及 15%以 上复合增速，目前估值较低，是穿越周期、具备绝对收益潜力的投资标 的。 华友钴业主要利润来源是镍，预计三年内利润翻倍，若镍价上涨，则可 能两年内实现。镍市场供给集中，受青山公司主导，印尼政策变化将推 动镍价上涨。 国泰海通整合效应将在 2026 年全面释放，客户数量行业领先， ...

央视报道，商务部等部门12月31日发布关于2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则， 明确参与申领2026年汽车报废更新补贴旧车的注册登记时间，相 比2025年进一步扩大支持范围。 2026年汽车报废更新中，若参与申领补贴的报废旧车为汽油乘用车，则其注册登记时间应在2013年6月30日（含当日，下同）之前；若参与申领补贴的报 废旧车为柴油及其他燃料乘用车，则其注册登记时间应在2015年6月30日之前；若参与申领补贴的报废旧车为新能源乘用车，则其注册登记时间应在2019 年12月31日之前。 此外，细则还明确， 汽车以旧换新按照新车售价比例给予补贴， 报废更新最高补2万元，置换更新最高补1.5万元；对符合条件的补贴申请， 30个工作日内兑付补贴。 消费者可通过电脑端登录"全国汽车流通信息管理系统"网站(https://qclt.mofcom.gov.cn)，点击"汽车以旧换新"专题，进入申请页面，填写申请信息并上传 所需附件。 2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则 第一章 汽车报废更新 第一条 2026年，对个人消费者报废2013年6月30日（含当日，下同）前注册登记的汽油乘用车、2015年6月30日前注册登记的柴油及 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the implementation of the "Digital Transformation Implementation Plan for the Automotive Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, which includes six major actions and 15 key tasks aimed at enhancing the digital economy in China [1][4] - By 2025, China's digital economy is expected to reach a value of 49 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP, with the core digital economy industries' value projected to increase year-on-year [1] - The data industry in China has rapidly expanded during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reaching a scale of 5.86 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 117%, with over 400,000 companies operating in this sector [1] Group 2 - As of June 2025, China has established 4.55 million 5G base stations, and the number of gigabit broadband users has reached 226 million, indicating significant advancements in digital infrastructure [4] - Continuous R&D investments have led to technological advancements in the data industry, resulting in a complete integrated circuit industry chain and the rapid growth of domestic operating systems, which now encompass over 1,200 product categories [4] - The next five-year plan period will focus on further deepening data-driven economic growth and social development, aiming to benefit the population through data [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.71% to close at 25,635.23 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.3% at 5,483.01 points, and the China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.26% to 8,891.71 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down 1.85%, Tencent Holdings down 1.08%, and JD Group down 0.71%. However, Netease and Meituan saw gains of 1.41% and 0.97%, respectively [1] - Gold stocks fell significantly, with WanGuo Gold Group dropping over 6% and several others declining more than 5% [1] - Robotics stocks led the market, with MicroPort Robotics-B rising over 25% and UBTECH increasing by over 9% [1] - Automotive stocks performed well, with NIO up over 4% and both Xpeng Motors and BYD close to 4% [1] - Gaming stocks generally fell, with MGM China dropping over 17%, while Chinese brokerage stocks also saw declines, with China International Capital Corporation down over 2% [1] Company News - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) repurchased 464,000 shares for approximately HKD 29.99 million at prices between HKD 64.05 and HKD 64.90 [2] - Bank of China (03988.HK) completed the issuance of HKD 50 billion in tier-2 capital bonds to supplement its tier-2 capital [2] - Weisheng Holdings (03393.HK) entered into a capital increase agreement with Boyu Capital, raising RMB 380 million for new shares [2] - Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (02186.HK) granted exclusive commercialization rights for three long-acting injectable antipsychotic products to Enhua in mainland China [3] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) had its SHR-A1904 injection included in the list of breakthrough therapy products by the drug review center [4] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.056 million shares for approximately HKD 636 million at prices between HKD 598 and HKD 604 [6] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) repurchased 1.96 million shares for approximately HKD 27.23 million at prices between HKD 13.82 and HKD 13.95 [7] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) repurchased 3.8 million shares for approximately HKD 149 million at prices between HKD 39.08 and HKD 39.26 [8] - Youzhiyou Biotechnology-B (02496.HK) received IND approval from NMPA for Y225 (Aimeisai monoclonal antibody injection) [9] - MicroPort Robotics-B (02252.HK) achieved a global commercialization milestone with over 100 installations of its surgical robots [10] - China Huadian Corporation (01071.HK) completed the construction and operation of two 660,000 kW ultra-supercritical units at the Huadian Longkou Phase IV project [11] - Energy International Investment (00353.HK) plans to issue a total of 1.035 billion shares at an approximately 18.33% discount, raising about HKD 254 million [12] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival in 2026, driven by internal and external economic factors [13] - Huatai Securities notes that the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with supply and demand pressures expected to persist towards the end of the year [14] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund's chief economist Yang Delong predicts that the Hong Kong stock market will regain upward momentum in 2026, driven by capital inflows and a potential long-term bull market [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of China's economic planning, particularly the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing a shift in focus from macroeconomic statistics to industry-specific data and market dynamics [1][2][4] - The concept of "Made in China 2025" is highlighted as a significant goal for advancing manufacturing capabilities, with provinces like Henan exemplifying successful implementation through technological advancements in various industries [5][6] - The article contrasts China's long-term strategic planning with the short-term focus of U.S. policies, suggesting that China's ability to maintain consistent goals over decades is a key advantage [6][7] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer goods in the national economy, noting that approximately 1.75 million product categories exist, with 1.2 million directly facing consumers [29] - It points out the need for innovation in consumer products, suggesting that integrating advanced technologies into everyday items can lead to significant market opportunities [30][31] - The article also discusses the challenges faced by private enterprises in adapting to technological advancements and the need for a more connected approach between scientific innovation and market demands [23][26][42] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of vertical innovation in industries, suggesting that focusing on specific product categories can lead to breakthroughs and market leadership [36][37] - It mentions the potential for new consumer trends, such as the "T-shaped revolution," which aims to apply cutting-edge technology to ordinary products, thereby enhancing their market appeal [26][30] - The article concludes with a call for businesses to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and technological advancements, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation and responsiveness to market needs [39][44]

（原标题：同比增长10%！国家统计局，最新公布！） 12月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元， 同比增长0.1%，连续4个月保持增长。其中，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%，较1—10月份 加快2.0个百分点。 数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额同比增长0.1%，连续4个月保持增长。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁介绍，1—11月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%， 较1—10月份加快2.0个百分点，增速高于全部规模以上工业平均水平9.9个百分点。 在设备制造领域，"人工智能+"行动成效显著，带动相关行业利润向好。其中，电子工业专用设备制造 行业利润同比增长达57.4%。细分来看，半导体器件专用设备制造行业利润增长97.2%，电子元器件与 机电组件设备制造行业利润增长46.0%，展现出强劲的发展势头。 分析认为，规模以上工业企业利润增速有所回落，但累计增速仍然延续8月份以来的增长态势，工业新 动能的支撑作用进一步显现。也要看到，国际环境不稳定不确定因素较多、工业新旧动能转换仍面临结 构调整压力，工业企业 ...

12月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同 比增长0.1%，连续四个月保持增长。其中，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%，较1—10月份加快 2.0个百分点。 分析认为，规模以上工业企业利润增速有所回落，但累计增速仍然延续8月份以来的增长态势，工业新动能的 支撑作用进一步显现。也要看到，国际环境不稳定不确定因素较多，工业新旧动能转换仍面临结构调整压力， 工业企业效益恢复基础还需继续巩固。 高技术制造业利润累计增速加快 数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额同比增长0.1%，连续四个月保持增长。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁介绍，1—11月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%，较1—10 月份加快2.0个百分点，增速高于全部规模以上工业平均水平9.9个百分点。 在设备制造领域，"人工智能+"行动成效显著，带动相关行业利润向好。其中，电子工业专用设备制造行业利 润同比增长达57.4%。细分来看，半导体器件专用设备制造行业利润增长97.2%，电子元器件与机电组件设备 制造行业利润增长46.0%，展现出强劲的发展势 ...

工业新动能的支撑作用进一步显现。 12月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元， 同比增长0.1%，连续4个月保持增长。其中，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%，较1—10月份 加快2.0个百分点。 分析认为，规模以上工业企业利润增速有所回落，但累计增速仍然延续8月份以来的增长态势，工业新 动能的支撑作用进一步显现。 高技术制造业利润累计增速加快 航空航天产业同样发展迅猛。航空、航天器及设备制造行业利润同比增长13.3%。具体而言，航天相关 设备制造行业利润增长高达192.9%，航空相关设备制造行业利润增长36.3%，成为行业利润增长的重要 支撑。 此外，随着数智化转型持续推进，智能消费设备制造行业利润同比增长54.0%。细分领域中，智能车载 设备制造行业利润增长105.7%，智能无人飞行器制造行业利润增长76.6%，其他智能消费设备制造行业 利润增长58.1%，均呈现出蓬勃的发展动能。 装备制造业利润带动作用明显 从三大门类看，1—11月份，制造业增长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长8.4%；采矿业 下降27.2%，降幅较1—1 ...

Core Insights - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in China has shown a slight decline but continues to maintain an upward trend since August, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Data - From January to November, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of growth since August [1]. - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5.0%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 8.4%. In contrast, the mining sector experienced a decline of 27.2%, although this decline was 0.6 percentage points less than the previous month [1]. - The total operating revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises rose by 1.6% year-on-year during the same period [1]. Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The profit of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 7.7% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises, making it the strongest driving sector [2]. - Among the eight major categories in the equipment manufacturing sector, seven reported year-on-year profit growth, with the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics industries showing double-digit growth rates of 27.8% and 15.0%, respectively [2]. - The automotive industry also saw a profit increase of 7.5%, accelerating by 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Group 3: High-Tech Manufacturing Sector - The profit of large-scale high-tech manufacturing grew by 10.0% year-on-year, which is 9.9 percentage points higher than the average profit growth of all large-scale industrial enterprises [3]. - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative has positively impacted related equipment manufacturing, with profits in the electronic industrial specialized equipment sector increasing by 57.4%, and specific segments like semiconductor device manufacturing and electronic components seeing growth rates of 97.2% and 46.0%, respectively [3]. - The aerospace industry also experienced significant profit growth, with the aerospace and related equipment manufacturing sectors reporting increases of 13.3%, 192.9%, and 36.3% [3]. Group 4: Raw Materials Manufacturing Sector - The profit of large-scale raw materials manufacturing increased significantly by 16.6% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [4]. - The steel industry has shown marked improvement in profitability this year, aided by low base factors, while the non-ferrous metals sector has maintained double-digit profit growth due to increased market demand and revenue growth [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory consumption, with supply pressures easing due to the seasonal cessation of rubber tapping in major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan [1][2] - As of December 2025, the two main production areas for natural rubber in China, Yunnan and Hainan, have entered the cessation phase, leading to a significant reduction in raw material output and a reliance on inventory for market circulation [1] - The domestic automotive market shows positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles in November 2025 reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% [2] Group 2 - The tire market in China is characterized by stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, and internal-external coordination, with the production of rubber tire outer casings showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.6% in November 2025 [3] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area reached 515,200 tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1,630 tons, indicating a continuous rise in inventory for eight consecutive weeks [3] - The heavy truck market, a key indicator of natural rubber demand, has shown a strong recovery, with November 2025 sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, a 46% increase compared to the same month last year [2]