2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 21 日，港股受隔夜美股下跌拖累，继续下探。周五恒生指数最终收报 25,220 点，跌 615 点（2.3%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 179 点（3.2%），收报 5,395 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,857 亿元。港股通净流入大幅减少至 1.1 亿元。盘面 上，科技股下跌幅度较大，腾讯（700 HK）下跌 1.8%；阿里巴巴（9988 HK）跌 4.6%，中芯国际（981 HK）跌 6.4%。国 内磷酸铁锂行业推进"反内卷"，中国化学与物理电源产业协会要求企业应将协会 11 月 18 日披露的行业平均成本区间 作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。锂电相关个股受压，赣锋锂业（1772 HK）周五跌 12.5%；天齐 锂业（9696 HK）跌 11.9%；宁德时代（3750 HK）解禁后连续下跌，周五跌 3.7%。领展房产基金（823 HK）由于宣布减 少派息，令投资者失望，连续两天放量下跌。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农业职位增长远高 于预期，带动美股周四高开 ...

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Core Insights - The project "Two Joint Ventures" and Comprehensive Energy Base in Yongcheng, Henan, is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing regional economic development and energy structure transformation [2][5] - The project has a total investment of 27.5 billion yuan and is part of the first batch of demonstration projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission [2] - The project includes the construction of 2×1 million kilowatt high-efficiency ultra-supercritical coal power, 2 million kilowatt wind power, and 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic projects, along with a shared energy storage station [2] Group 1 - The construction site is currently active with over 1,700 workers and nearly 100 large machinery units engaged in operations, ensuring safety and quality [1] - Key milestones achieved include the completion of the chimney outer wall, installation of boiler beams, and the commencement of equipment installation for the steam turbine and boiler [1][2] - The project aims to establish the largest "wind-solar-fire-storage" integrated energy demonstration base in Central China, contributing to the green and low-carbon transition of Henan's energy structure [2] Group 2 - The project is in a critical phase to meet annual construction targets, with a focus on safety and quality control to achieve key structural goals by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The 110 kV booster station's main structure and all equipment foundations have been completed, with ongoing installation of main transformers and high-voltage switchgear [4] - The local government has established a joint mechanism to support the project, ensuring high standards and quality in construction through effective problem-solving and strategic planning [4][5]

2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional coal-fired power industry is undergoing significant transformation, shifting from a cyclical asset to a stable value asset due to changes in energy structure and market reforms [1][2]. Industry Transformation - The coal-fired power sector has transitioned from being a "power provider" to a "regulatory guarantor," with its role evolving to include peak supply and frequency regulation in response to the instability of renewable energy sources [1][2]. - The installed capacity of coal-fired power has decreased from 66% in 2015 to 40% by July 2025, while its generation share has dropped from 74% to 65% [1]. New Profitability Framework - The profitability of coal-fired power is now influenced by three main factors: rising capacity prices, increasing auxiliary service revenues, and the gradual improvement of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism [2][3]. - The capacity price mechanism, effective from 2024, will provide fixed compensation based on installed capacity, with expected prices rising from 100 yuan/kW·year in 2024-2025 to 165 yuan/kW·year in 2026, and up to 230 yuan/kW·year in leading provinces [2]. - Auxiliary service revenues are projected to grow significantly, with Huaneng International's net income from auxiliary services expected to rise from 1.473 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.458 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards market-based trading has reduced the influence of traditional pricing factors, allowing coal-fired power companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance revenue per unit of electricity generated [2][3]. - The marketization of pricing mechanisms has effectively smoothed out cost fluctuations, leading to a more stable return on equity (ROE) for coal-fired power plants, projected to stabilize around 10% [3]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The coal-fired power sector is experiencing improved financial metrics, with a projected 8.2% growth in equity for 2023-2024 and a further 3.5% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Operating cash flow for the coal-fired power sector is expected to reach 144 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [5]. - The sector's dividend payouts are also on the rise, with a 91% year-on-year increase in total dividends in the first half of 2025, indicating a sustainable dividend capacity [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity within the coal-fired power sector: leading companies with improving performance, firms committed to high dividends, and regionally stable leaders [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinkong Electric, plans to sell 51% of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Tongying Thermal Power, to Jinbei Energy for 266 million yuan to improve asset liquidity and support ongoing project financing [1][6]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves a non-public agreement for the transfer of shares between two subsidiaries under the same parent company, Jinneng Holdings [1]. - The assessed value of Tongying Thermal Power is 521 million yuan, with a minimal increase of 0.66% over its book value [3]. - The project under Tongying Thermal Power is still in the construction phase and has not yet generated revenue [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The sale will result in a cash inflow of 266 million yuan for Jinkong Electric, but will not impact its profit or loss due to the lack of accumulated profits from Tongying Thermal Power [5][6]. - The transaction has been approved through a rigorous process, ensuring compliance with corporate governance standards [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The sale is part of a strategy to optimize asset structure amid the energy sector's transformation, allowing for quicker capital recovery [1][6]. - Jinbei Energy, the acquiring company, is positioned to expedite the project’s construction due to its strong financial backing [4].

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection Industry - The energy transition is ongoing, with clean energy and environmental protection exhibiting both growth and utility attributes [7][8] - The unified electricity market is accelerating, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy [7] - The coal power sector is transitioning to a regulatory power source, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices in 2026 [8] - Green electricity pricing uncertainties are diminishing, indicating a potential bottoming out for the green electricity sector [8] - Hydropower is experiencing improved cash flow and performance, supported by low costs and a balanced supply-demand trend [9] - Nuclear power is facing market price pressures but is expected to rebound, with new nuclear projects gaining momentum [10] - The natural gas market remains relatively loose, with domestic supply increasing and global prices potentially declining [10] - Green methanol is emerging as a significant growth area due to policies promoting renewable energy consumption [11] - The environmental protection sector is entering a mature phase, with improved cash flow and investment opportunities in public utility-like projects [11][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with beef and milk prices projected to rise [13][16] - The domestic and international markets are likely to see synchronized price increases for beef and milk due to supply adjustments [13] - The pig and poultry farming sectors are shifting focus from cyclical trends to cash flow generation, with leading companies expected to benefit [14] - The pet industry is identified as a high-quality growth sector, with domestic brands gaining traction [15][18] - Agricultural commodity prices are stabilizing, with corn and soybean markets showing signs of support [16][17] Group 3: Machinery Industry - The machinery industry is poised for growth driven by AI infrastructure and humanoid robots, with a focus on engineering machinery and market share-boosting leaders [19][20] - Emerging markets and export growth are key drivers, particularly in AI infrastructure and robotics [19] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with significant import substitution potential, such as scientific instruments and semiconductor components [20] - The nuclear power sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a positive outlook on nuclear energy development [22] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is recovering, with a notable increase in consumer demand and improvements in the supply chain [26][27] - The alcoholic beverage segment is in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for quality companies to gain market share [26] - Dairy and beverage sectors are expected to see stable demand recovery, with leading companies positioned for growth [26][27] - The snack food market is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in niche segments like konjac snacks [26]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surged past the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, driven by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, the central bank's resumption of government bond trading, and a strong emphasis on technology in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The market's upward movement is expected to increase volatility, leading investors to favor dividend assets due to their lower volatility and defensive characteristics [1] - The insurance and non-ferrous metals sectors are highlighted as promising areas for investment, with a focus on identifying "prosperity dividends" [1][2] Group 2 - The insurance sector is seen as having strong medium to long-term logic, with low valuations and potential for valuation recovery, especially in the context of a declining risk-free interest rate environment [8] - The banking sector is considered to have limited downside potential, providing a smoothing effect on portfolio volatility, with some banks offering around 5% dividend yields [8] - The real estate market is currently in a downward trend, with predictions of further declines in housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities [9] Group 3 - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise due to the recovery of overseas real estate and manufacturing returning to North America, with a favorable price elasticity for aluminum [5] - The long-term outlook for dividend assets remains positive, driven by a downward trend in risk-free interest rates, with a focus on stable dividends and profit growth [4] - The aviation sector is recovering, with high passenger load factors and potential profit increases if oil prices decline [12]

Group 1: Power Industry - The unified electricity market is accelerating construction, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy. The basic rules of the unified electricity market have been established, with a focus on market-driven pricing for renewable energy [1][24][29] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the wind power sector's revenue decreased by 2.80% year-on-year, while the solar power sector's revenue dropped by 14.01%, indicating pressure on the performance of the renewable energy sector due to consumption and pricing issues [30][31] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 582 GW and 1127 GW respectively by September 2025, accounting for 46% of the total installed capacity, with a significant contribution to non-fossil energy consumption [36][40] Group 2: Thermal Power - The transition of thermal power to a regulatory power source is accelerating, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices, stabilizing profitability for coal-fired power plants [2] - The capacity price for coal-fired power is anticipated to increase further in 2026, promoting stable profitability for coal power [2][10] Group 3: Hydropower - Hydropower is experiencing improved cost-effectiveness due to abundant cash flow and stable performance, with high dividends becoming more attractive in a declining interest rate environment [3] - The core growth points for hydropower include increased installed capacity, rising electricity prices, and reduced financial costs and depreciation [3] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is facing pressure from declining market prices, but there is a rebound in electricity prices in Guangdong, and new nuclear power developments are gaining momentum [3][10] - The approval of new nuclear units is becoming more regular, with 10 units approved in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Group 5: Natural Gas - Domestic natural gas supply is expected to remain relatively loose, with a decline in apparent consumption by 0.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The global natural gas market is entering a supply expansion phase, which may lead to a downward trend in overseas gas prices [4] Group 6: Green Methanol - The promotion of green electricity consumption and the replacement of shipping fuels are expected to open up growth opportunities for green methanol [9] - As of August 2025, there are 173 signed/registered green methanol projects in China, with a total capacity of 53.46 million tons per year, indicating rapid growth in the sector [9][10] Group 7: Environmental Protection - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental protection sector [10] - The domestic market for scientific instruments exceeds $9 billion, with substantial potential for domestic substitution, particularly benefiting companies in environmental monitoring instruments [10]

Core Viewpoint - The commissioning of the No. 9 unit at the Beilun Power Plant in Ningbo, China, represents a significant advancement in coal-fired power generation technology, showcasing the potential for traditional fossil fuels to be transformed into efficient and clean energy sources, challenging the prevailing narratives in Western media regarding energy transition [3][10][12]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The Beilun No. 9 unit utilizes "ultra-supercritical" technology, which operates under high pressure and temperature, achieving a power generation efficiency of over 48%, significantly higher than traditional subcritical units (approximately 38%) and the global average (around 33%) [6][8]. - This technology allows for substantial fuel savings, with the unit saving 120 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour generated, leading to an annual coal savings of over one million tons [8][10]. - The unit is equipped with advanced flue gas purification systems, resulting in emissions of particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides that are well below China's stringent "ultra-low emission" standards, comparable to natural gas power generation [8][10]. Group 2: Global Implications - The success of the Beilun No. 9 unit illustrates a pragmatic energy transition strategy, where China focuses on enhancing the cleanliness and efficiency of traditional coal power rather than a radical phase-out of fossil fuels [12][14]. - This approach challenges the Western narrative that equates environmental sustainability with the complete elimination of fossil fuels, highlighting the potential for technological innovation to reconcile energy security and carbon reduction [14][23]. - China's advancements in energy technology, exemplified by the Beilun No. 9 unit, position it as a global leader in efficient and clean coal power, providing a viable energy transition model for other developing countries [17][19]. Group 3: Strategic Silence in Western Media - The Western media's collective silence regarding the Beilun No. 9 unit stems from an understanding of its technological significance, creating a narrative dilemma as it contradicts their established views on energy transition [10][14]. - Acknowledging the success of the Beilun No. 9 unit would imply a recognition of China's advancements in energy technology, undermining the perceived technological superiority of the West [14][21]. - The ongoing global energy transition will require a reevaluation of what constitutes "clean energy" and effective energy strategies, as demonstrated by China's practical engineering solutions [23].