Group 1 - Central enterprises are actively promoting projects and investments during the National Day holiday to stabilize the economy, with significant engineering projects continuing without interruption [1] - The world's first "dual-tower one machine" solar thermal energy storage power station has entered full system trial operation, marking a breakthrough in tower solar power generation technology [2] - The successful installation of the last wind turbine in the 200,000-kilowatt wind-storage project in Hegang, Heilongjiang, signifies the completion of the main engineering work [3] Group 2 - The G228 Binhai section's Tauer River Bridge has been completed and opened to traffic, significantly reducing travel time between the two banks [4] - The construction of the Zhongsha Gule Ethylene project is progressing rapidly, with over 4,000 workers on-site, achieving 82.5% overall progress [5] - The world's highest high-proportion co-firing high-alkali coal 660 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power unit has been put into operation, expected to generate 8 billion kilowatt-hours annually [6] Group 3 - The first batch of dam sections for the highest hyperbolic arch dam under construction in the domestic plateau has been successfully poured to the top, marking a significant milestone [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating fund disbursement for the fourth quarter, with a new policy financial tool scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital [8]

电力及公用事业 分析师：陈拓 登记编码：S0730522100003 chentuo@ccnew.com 8 月用电量再度突破万亿千瓦时，9 月三 峡来水情况明显好转 ——电力及公用事业行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 09 月 29 日 ⚫ 行情回顾：9 月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。截至 2025 年 9 月 26 日，本月中信电力及公用事业指数下跌 0.20%，跑输沪深 300 （1.19%）1.39 个百分点。 ⚫ 全国电力供需情况 需求端：2025 年 8 月，全社会用电量 10154 亿千瓦时，连续两月 突破 1 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 5%，但增速较 2025 年 7 月降低 3.6 个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过 10%。 供给端：2025 年 8 月，规上工业风电增速加快，水电降幅扩大， 火电、核电、太阳能发电增速放缓。从发电量占比看，2025 年 1 —8 月，规上工业火电占比 65.04%，规上工业水电占比 13.07%， 规上工业核电占比 5.01%，规上工业风电占比 10.85%，规上工业 太阳能占比 6.02%。 装机容量： ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.07% this week, while the Utilities Index rose by 0.28% and the Environmental Index increased by 1.06%, with relative weekly returns of -0.79% and -0.01% respectively [2][3] - Among the 31 primary industry sectors classified by Shenwan, the Utilities and Environmental sectors ranked 6th and 4th in terms of growth [2][3] Power Sector Performance - In the power sector, thermal power decreased by 0.82%, while hydropower and renewable energy generation increased by 0.82% and 1.09% respectively [2][3] - The water sector saw an increase of 2.74%, while the gas sector declined by 0.63% [2][3] Important Events - At the UN Climate Change Summit, national leaders announced China's new commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035 and to increase non-fossil energy consumption to over 30% of total energy consumption [3] - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3] - Cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3,690 million kW by the end of August, with solar power capacity growing by 48.5% year-on-year [3] Regional Market Insights - The Sichuan electricity spot market has begun trial settlements, experiencing instances of negative electricity prices due to an oversupply situation [4] - As of 2024, Sichuan's total installed capacity is projected to be 14,346 MW, with hydropower accounting for 71.2% [4] Investment Strategies - In the utilities sector, coal and electricity prices are expected to decline, maintaining reasonable profitability for thermal power companies [5] - Continued government support for renewable energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability for renewable energy companies [5] - Recommendations include major thermal power companies, national renewable energy leaders, and stable nuclear power operators [5] Environmental Sector Insights - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [5] - The domestic market for scientific instruments exceeds $9 billion, indicating substantial potential for domestic substitution [5] - The upcoming EU SAF blending policy is expected to increase demand for raw materials, benefiting the domestic waste oil recycling industry [5]

华泰证券研报表示，7/8月全国火电发电量同比增长，考虑迎峰度夏对火电利用小时的提振，主要火电 公司2025年第三季度度电净利或有望继续提升。7/8月全国水电发电量同比下滑，不同流域存在分化； 核电机组稳健运行；1-8月装机增长支撑绿电运营商电量同比提升；7月全国天然气表观消费量同比提 升。展望2025年第四季度，火电关注电价vs煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来水及汛期蓄水情况；绿 电关注机制电价细则和国补确权进展；燃气关注天然气需求是否改善；环保公司主要关注现金流、水价 调整、绿色和智慧潜能释放空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes stabilizing electricity prices and preventing "involution" in the industry. The new target for wind and solar installed capacity is set at 360 million kilowatts by 2035 [3][10] - As of August 2025, the total installed capacity of power generation in China reached 3.69 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Solar power capacity reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, growing by 48.5%, while wind power capacity reached 580 million kilowatts, increasing by 22.1% [4][11] - The report suggests that the current year is crucial for achieving the 14th Five-Year Plan goals, with significant growth in wind and solar installations expected, potentially reaching the 2030 target ahead of schedule [3][11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% to 3828.11 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.07% to 4550.05 points during the week of September 22-26, 2025. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index rose by 0.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.51 percentage points [1][57] Key Industry Insights - The SASAC's meeting on September 25 focused on stabilizing coal and electricity prices, indicating that the downward pressure on electricity prices is expected to ease [4][16] - The new national contribution target aims for 360 million kilowatts of installed wind and solar capacity by 2035, with nearly 200 million kilowatts of additional capacity available for development [3][11] - The report highlights the importance of renewable energy consumption and the potential for green electricity trading policies to be strengthened [3][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green electricity sectors, particularly in Hong Kong stocks and wind power operators. Specific companies to watch include Xintian Green Energy (H), Longyuan Power, and Jidian Co. [4] - It also suggests paying attention to the thermal power sector, with companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International being highlighted for their potential [4][7] Market Performance - The report notes that over half of the listed companies in the power and utilities sector experienced declines in stock prices during the week [1][57] - The carbon market saw a decrease in trading prices, with a weekly drop of 0.87% [52] Key Metrics - As of August 2025, the average utilization hours for power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the previous year [4][11] - The report indicates that the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 723 million tons, with a total transaction value of 49.525 billion yuan [52]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the interbank leverage ratio has slightly increased to 106.88% as of August, which is still lower than historical levels [2] - The total custody scale of bonds reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.51 trillion yuan [2] - Commercial banks are the main force in increasing holdings of government bonds, with an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan in August [2] Group 2 - The company has obtained the China Classification Society (CCS) certification for its ship coatings, which is expected to expand its market space and enhance sales [3] - The company is also pursuing certification from the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) to further penetrate the ship coatings market [3] - The business scope is expanding with a strategic focus on industrial coatings, including new segments such as marine, offshore, and photovoltaic coatings [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the ready-to-eat food sector is performing well, driven by the pre-made dish concept, especially in the context of the upcoming double festival [4] - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on consumption, with high-end liquor prices slightly declining, which may stimulate sales [4] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of banquet markets during the double festival, as it may impact overall performance in Q3 [4] Group 4 - The report discusses the rapid expansion of new energy installations under the "dual carbon" goals, with significant growth in wind and solar power [7] - Huayin Power is focusing on both thermal power investment and new energy transition, with a total installed capacity of 7.16 million kilowatts as of mid-2025 [7] - The company is actively seeking quality project indicators for thermal power, with ongoing upgrades to existing facilities [7] Group 5 - The semiconductor business of the company is experiencing growth, with a focus on high-margin products and a strategic shift away from product integration [14] - The company reported a revenue of 25.34 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a decline in overall revenue due to the divestment of its product integration business [14] - The semiconductor segment is expected to benefit from strong demand in automotive and AI infrastructure markets, with projected revenues of 35.64 billion yuan in 2025 [14] Group 6 - The report indicates that Tongrentang's revenue remained stable with a slight increase, while net profit showed a decline due to external pressures [16] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product quality and expanding its international market presence, with new product registrations in Canada and Hong Kong [16] - The forecast for net profit in 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs [16]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the total electricity consumption in society has exceeded 10 trillion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [2] Industry Performance - The electricity equipment sector has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 17.7%, a 3-month increase of 41.0%, and a 1-year increase of 70.0% [2] - The electronics sector has also performed well, with a 1-month increase of 15.7%, a 3-month increase of 52.6%, and a 1-year increase of 118.4% [2] - The communication sector has seen a 1-month increase of 8.4%, a 3-month increase of 59.0%, and a 1-year increase of 114.4% [2] - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed, with a 1-month decrease of 9.5%, a 3-month increase of 6.3%, and a 1-year increase of 34.4% [2] - The defense and military sector has also seen a decline, with a 1-month decrease of 9.0%, a 3-month increase of 12.6%, and a 1-year increase of 49.0% [2] Electricity Generation Insights - In August, the growth rate of industrial wind power accelerated, while hydropower saw a decline, and the growth rates of thermal, nuclear, and solar power generation slowed down [2] - The report recommends focusing on the thermal power sector, highlighting companies such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Baoneng New Energy as potential investment opportunities [2] - For green electricity, the report suggests prioritizing undervalued green electricity stocks and wind power operators, recommending companies like New Energy and Longyuan Power [2] - The hydropower sector is advised to focus on companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [2] - The nuclear power sector includes recommendations for China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [2]

西子洁能 20250923 摘要 西子节能受益于光热发电成本下降及政策支持，青海地区度电成本已降 至五毛钱左右，并获得标杆电价五毛五，同时，2026 年每千瓦容量补 贴将增加到 330 元，使得熔岩储能收益率超过 7%，经济性显著提升， 预计光热发电领域将带来约 3 亿元利润增长。 发改委鼓励每年建设 3GW 光热发电，西子节能作为主要设备供应商， 专注于吸热器、储热罐和换热器，每吉瓦价值量约 30 亿，公司市占率 保守估计为 20%，预计每年可转化约 3 亿净利润。 熔岩储能技术在火电深度调峰中具有显著优势，通过降低负荷至 10%左 右，实现价差收入和容量补贴收入，一吉瓦时造价约 3.4 亿元，远低于 化学储能成本，且设计寿命长达 30 年，预计火电灵活性改造将带来 3~4 亿元利润增长。 国家发改委要求到 2027 年改造 2~4 亿千瓦的火电容量，已完成初步改 造的 6 亿千瓦火电容量也可以进一步改造成熔盐储能系统，以实现深度 调峰，市场潜力巨大。 Q&A 西子节能的主要业务及其未来发展前景如何？ 西子节能的主要业务是余热锅炉，应用于燃气发电、煤电和工业领域。预计未 来五年内，国外市场尤其是美国和一些发 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.6% and 1.2% respectively last week, with the Hang Seng Index remaining flat on Friday and the China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.2%[1] - Macau's gaming revenue in August increased by 12.2% year-on-year, boosting market expectations for gaming income during September and the National Day holiday[1] - AI-related stocks, such as SenseTime (20 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK), performed well last week due to positive market sentiment[1] U.S. Market Influence - All three major U.S. stock indices rose last week, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increasing by 1.1% to 2.2%[1] - The Federal Reserve announced a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points and is expected to implement two more cuts this year, encouraging investors anticipating continued monetary easing[1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.95%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.6 percentage points, amid concerns over U.S. pharmaceutical companies investing over $350 billion domestically[3] - The automotive sector showed positive performance, with NIO (9866 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) rising by 3.4% to 4.4%, while Li Auto (2015 HK) fell by 1.1%[4] - The Macau gaming sector has seen strong growth since the end of August, with most stocks rising by 4% to 6% last Friday, driven by record gaming revenue and increased tourist arrivals[4] Energy Sector - The renewable energy and utility sectors generally declined, with coal-fired power companies experiencing significant drops, such as Huaneng International (902 HK) down 3.5% and Datang Power (991 HK) down 7.4%[5] - Some equipment stocks, like Goldwind Technology (2208 HK) and Harbin Electric (1133 HK), saw increases of 14.4% and 15.5% respectively[5]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 19 日 全国碳市场：四季度能否如期反弹？ 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 核心观点 近期，全国碳市场价格持续走弱，根本原因在于实际流通配额的增加已显著改变了买卖双方的交易心 态。展望四季度，市场能否出现预期中的反弹，关键取决于盈余企业自有余量的净卖出比例是维持在 40% 附近还是大幅高于这一水平。盈余企业自有余量的净卖出比例主要受到两方面因素影响：第一，企业经营 状况及决策者是否倾向通过出售配额弥补经营性亏损；第二，决策者对 2026 年及以后市场价格走势的预 期。为评估企业"通过出售配额弥补经营亏损"的倾向，本文对 A 股火电板块 31 家上市公司公开披露的 经营状况与碳交易状况进行了案头调研，核心结论如下： （1）超过 90%的样本企业 2024 年显性碳成本收入比低于 1%，约 40%的样本企业履约压力呈逐年增加 趋势。 （2）预计 24 家样本公司在前两个履约周期整体存在配额结余，其中 15 家公司的"扣非归母净利 率"与"碳净收益率"（逆序）两项指标走势在统计期内基本同步，表明部分 ...