Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The core viewpoint is that the official launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant step towards a new development model in the real estate sector, with policies expected to accelerate the growth of C-REITs [2] - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies by the CSRC and stock exchanges is seen as a catalyst for expanding asset classes and enhancing efficiency, which could lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [2] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are expected to benefit significantly from this development [2] Group 2: Financial Services Industry - The recent guidelines from the central bank and financial regulatory authority aim to reduce the pricing cap for small loan companies, which may lead to a rapid industry cleanup [3] - The guidelines require small loan companies to stop issuing loans with comprehensive financing costs exceeding 24% immediately and to gradually lower pricing to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027 [3] - The impact of these guidelines on the broader financial technology sector will depend on whether banks and consumer finance companies follow suit [3] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The outlook for January indicates a seasonal decline in passenger and cargo volumes, but there are positive signs for airline profitability and oil transportation demand [5] - The airline sector is expected to see improved revenue levels due to steady demand growth and favorable oil prices, while oil transportation rates may rise due to geopolitical tensions [5] - Recommendations include focusing on specific stocks in the airline and oil transportation sectors, as well as logistics and express delivery companies [5] Group 4: ETF Market - By the end of 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with a significant increase driven by stock ETFs, which saw a 42% growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continued inflows [5] Group 5: Key Companies - Century Huatong is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating and a target price of 24.52 yuan, driven by its leadership in SLG games and strong performance in overseas markets [6] - New and emerging companies like Xinhecheng and Huaming Equipment are also highlighted for their growth potential and strategic initiatives, with target prices set at 38.24 yuan and 29.5 yuan respectively [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and market expansion for companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment and China Jushi, which are expected to benefit from new game launches and incentive plans [8][9]

买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.85/10.70 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.34 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 70,055 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,023.42/13,828.63 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.90 | | 资产负债率% | 39.40 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 4,003/4,003 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 上 市 公 司 建筑材料 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 01-06 02-06 0 ...

北京市优化调整住房限购政策，《求是》强调地产政策不能采取添油战术 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 周期品方向：反内卷仍是主线。对于水泥及玻璃行业而言，在需求下行的背景下，供给能否有效去化是下 一阶段观察的重点。目前水泥和浮法玻璃的行业平均盈利均已跌落至盈亏平衡线之下，供给端博弈是淡季 的主线。其中，Q1通常是玻璃产能冷修的高峰，冷修减产的幅度将直接决定3-4月份浮法玻璃价格修复的 空间。玻纤板块盈利相对较好，需求端依旧稳步增长，26H1下游如风电等场景对粗纱需求有支撑，而新供 给投放主要在26H2，判断有阶段性提价的可能性。新领域方向：1）电子布。AI供应链的高景气仍是26H1 最有确定性的方向。特种电子布（LowDK一代二代、石英布）需求弹性较大，且短期 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建材 [Table_Title] 中建材两大玻纤龙头激励落地，彰显经营信心 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国建材的两大玻纤龙头中国巨石、中材科技分别于 2025 年 12 月 31 日和 2026 年 1 月 4 日 发布股权激励草案，彰显玻纤两大龙头的经营信心。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 建材 cjzqdt11111 2026-01-05 行业研究丨点评报告 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 中建材两大玻纤龙头激励落地，彰显经营信心 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国建材的两大玻纤龙头中国巨石、中材科技分别于 2025 年 12 月 31 日和 2026 年 1 月 4 日 发布股权激励草案，彰显玻纤两大龙头的经营信心。 [Table_Rank] 投资评 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 建筑业 PMI 回升符合季节性规律，值得关注 2026 年 01 月 05 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.12.27–2026.1.2，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅- 1.59%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.59%、-0.33%，超 额收益分别为-1.00%、-1.26%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为 352.8 元/吨，较上周-1.2 元/吨，较 2024 年同期-53.8 元/吨。较上周价格 持平的地区：长三角地区、泛京津冀地区、华北地区、东北地区、华东 地区、西北地区；较上周价格上涨的地区：两广地区（+5.0 元/吨）、中 南地区（+ ...

Group 1: Nanshan Aluminum (南山铝业) - Nanshan Aluminum is positioned as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a focus on dividends and share buybacks, reflecting confidence in its growth potential [4][12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 5.0 billion, CNY 5.46 billion, and CNY 5.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x [4][12] - The report anticipates a 15% upside potential based on a target P/E of 13x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peer companies [4][12] - Key assumptions include increased alumina production from Indonesia, with projected sales volumes of 2.76 million tons in 2025, 4.36 million tons in 2026, and 4.56 million tons in 2027 [12] - The report highlights that domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its peak, while global supply growth is slowing, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance for the industry [12] Group 2: Hanhigh Group (悍高集团) - Hanhigh Group is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 3.595 billion, CNY 4.525 billion, and CNY 5.653 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of CNY 706 million, CNY 942 million, and CNY 1.237 billion [4][15] - The company is rated as "Buy" based on its current valuation being below the average of comparable companies for 2026 [4][15] - Hanhigh Group's growth is driven by cost reduction and brand strength, with a CAGR of 29% in revenue and 59% in net profit from 2019 to 2024 [12][13] - The company focuses on product innovation and cost efficiency, leveraging its own production capacity to enhance profitability [12][13] Group 3: Market Overview and Investment Strategy - The report identifies a favorable market environment for the spring season, with expectations of continued upward momentum in the stock market due to improved economic indicators and liquidity [22] - The "Top Ten Gold Stocks" for January 2026 include companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and Alibaba, indicating a diversified investment strategy across sectors [14][22] - The automotive industry is highlighted for its recovery potential, particularly with the introduction of new subsidies and the expected improvement in demand for mid-range vehicles [24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The real estate sector remains a foundational industry for the national economy, contributing 13% to GDP and directly supporting 70 million jobs in China. The potential for new residential construction is significant, estimated at 10 million to 14.9 million units annually, translating to approximately 600 to 900 million square meters of new housing [1][11] - There is a substantial demand for housing updates, with an estimated 700 million square meters needed annually due to a 2% depreciation rate on the existing housing stock of approximately 35 billion square meters [1][11] - The business model in real estate is shifting from a high-cost model to an integrated approach of product-service-operation, emphasizing quality and diverse living services over mere availability [1][11] - The capital market is expected to see an 18.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025, while the building materials index, excluding the fiberglass sector, is underperforming. Companies with strong alpha attributes in the real estate chain are gaining market recognition despite the overall industry not stabilizing yet [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the fundamental changes in the real estate sector in 2026, as well as the performance of companies like China Jushi, which is planning to grant stock options to employees, indicating a focus on long-term profitability [2][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The real estate sector is crucial for the economy, with a significant contribution to GDP and employment. The potential for new housing construction is substantial, and there is a large demand for housing updates [1][11] - The shift in real estate business models towards integrated services is noted, with a call for decisive policy support to avoid market and policy conflicts [1][11] Market Performance - The building materials index has decreased by 1.25%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass showing notable declines. The overall market sentiment remains cautious [2][16] - Despite the downturn, certain companies in the real estate supply chain are experiencing growth and valuation premiums, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][12] Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of cement has decreased to 353 CNY per ton, with a national average shipment rate of 40.3%. The market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to weak demand [3][20][21] - The price of float glass has seen a slight decline, with the average price at 1121.29 CNY per ton. Inventory levels are decreasing, but overall market sentiment remains weak [3][28][42] - The fiberglass market is stable, with prices for 2400tex direct yarn remaining steady at around 3535.25 CNY per ton, indicating a balance between supply and demand [3][49][53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend in the upgrade of AI special electronic fabrics, with Low-Dk electronic fabrics being a core material for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs. The demand logic is driven by the growth in AI server volumes, increased usage per server, and enhanced value from material upgrades. The transition to M9 materials in AI PCBs is expected to significantly boost the scale of high-end special electronic fabrics [3][6] - The report outlines three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a notable shift in consumer demand towards renovation, expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030. The African chain emphasizes the undervalued growth potential in the African market, while the AI chain looks at the industrial upgrade of special electronic fabrics [6][4] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The cement market is experiencing a seasonal decline in shipments, with an average shipment rate of 41% among major cement enterprises, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous period. Prices are being maintained in most regions, although some areas are seeing price increases [4][18] - The average national cement price is reported at 358.71 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period but down 61.77 yuan/ton year-on-year [19] Glass Market - The float glass market is showing a weak trend, with prices slightly declining and inventories increasing. The average national glass price is 61.64 yuan per weight box, down 0.35 yuan from the previous period and down 12.98 yuan year-on-year [33][30] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 216 out of 265 production lines operational, and a daily melting capacity of 154,105 tons, which is a reduction of 900 tons from the previous week [30][32] Special Electronic Fabrics - The report emphasizes the significant upgrade trend in Low-Dk electronic fabrics, with expected total demand for Low-Dk electronic fabrics projected at approximately 110 million meters in 2025, 220 million meters in 2026, and 320 million meters in 2027. The demand for Low-Dk second-generation fabrics is expected to reach 60 million meters in 2026 and 130 million meters in 2027 [3][6] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. It recommends companies such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong for their optimal business models and growth potential [6][4]

Core Viewpoint - China National Building Material Group's subsidiary, China National Materials Science and Technology, is launching a 4.481 billion yuan private placement to enter the global AI substrate market, marking its transformation into a technology-driven enterprise focused on "AI substrates + high-end manufacturing" [1][3]. Group 1: Fundraising and Projects - The fundraising will allocate over 3.1 billion yuan to low-dielectric fiber cloth projects, which are essential materials for high-end applications such as AI servers and data center switches [1][3]. - The two main projects include an annual production of 35 million meters of low-dielectric fiber cloth and 24 million meters of ultra-low-loss low-dielectric fiber cloth [1][3]. Group 2: Product Features and Sales - The special fiber cloth possesses low dielectric constant (Dk), low dielectric loss factor (Df), and low thermal expansion coefficient (CTE), which help reduce signal attenuation and distortion, enhancing signal transmission speed and quality [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported sales of 8.95 million meters of special fiber cloth, covering various product categories that have received certification and bulk supply from leading domestic and international clients [1][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - The company has faced declining performance, with net profits from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 reported at 3.511 billion yuan, 2.224 billion yuan, 892 million yuan, and 1.48 billion yuan, respectively, influenced by decreasing gross margins [2][4]. - Following the announcement of the private placement, the market reacted positively, with the company's stock price rising by 7.72% and reaching a historical high of 40.90 yuan per share [2][4]. Group 4: Industry Context - The transformation of China National Materials Science and Technology reflects not only the company's individual efforts but also the broader ascent of China's new materials industry within the global value chain [5].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025 due to structural highlights, despite ongoing pressure from traditional domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Cement - Cement demand is under pressure, with a structural adjustment expected; by 2025, the demand distribution is projected to be 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance as excess capacity is addressed and supply-side constraints are implemented [3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is poised for significant profit release in 2026, driven by demand from AI electronic cloth; the focus will be on high-end fabric price elasticity [4]. - The glass fiber industry has established a global pricing structure, with both domestic and international demand being crucial for growth [4]. Group 3: Glass - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repair processes, with a net reduction of approximately 4000 tons per day expected by the end of 2025 [5]. - The industry is experiencing weak profitability, with over 60% of natural gas production lines expected to incur losses; however, there may be opportunities for supply-demand mismatches in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [6]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the increase in second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, creating structural opportunities [6].