国泰海通建材鲍雁辛-周观点：建材中的"抱团"与"切换" （国泰海通 建材行业 鲍雁辛 18676684351）20250824 本文汇报 1、周观点：建材中的"抱团"与"切换" 本周市场迎来了风格再次强化，科技尤其是唯一有基本面支撑算力，其演绎越来越极 致。此时在建材领域，无论是选择继续"抱团"还是转向"切换"，都有显然值得考虑 的选项。 1.建材中的"抱团"：电子布格局暂不会证伪，增量乐观者定价 玻纤电子布实现业绩兑现和产业趋势的共振。25 年 AI 趋势尚未结束，以板块行情为主， 26 年选择能低成本无瓶颈量产一代布的公司，和 Q 布良率有望率先突破的公司。而板块 的风险主要需要观测北美预期指引节奏的变化。 1）头部企业电子布业绩如期兑现。 本周中材科技发布中报，作为特种玻纤布领域国内 产品体系最全的公司，中报业绩落在此前业绩预告的上缘，上半年公司特种布销量 895 万米，倒算 25Q2 产销量近 600 万米，产销环比提速，盈利体量放大。 2）AI 产业链整体量产预期提前。从产业链上看，近期 PCB 企业和核心 Q 布供应商排产均 反馈 1.6T 交换机用 M9 量产预期有望提前，过去 GB300 配套 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector is experiencing mixed performance, with cement prices showing slight increases but overall demand recovery remaining slow due to various factors, including weather conditions and market liquidity [1][6]. Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 342.7 yuan/ton, up by 2.3 yuan/ton from last week but down by 35.7 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 64.6%, down by 1.8 percentage points from last week and down by 2.2 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement shipment rate is 45.7%, down by 0.1 percentage points from last week and down by 2.7 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - Some regions have seen price increases, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (+20.0 yuan/ton) and the Yangtze River Basin (+12.9 yuan/ton) [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a steady upward price trend, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading enterprises [6]. Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1205.8 yuan/ton, down by 29.9 yuan/ton from last week and down by 216.2 yuan/ton from 2024 [3]. - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises is 5.636 million heavy boxes, up by 280,000 heavy boxes from last week but down by 4.51 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3]. - The industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9]. Fiberglass Industry - The domestic market for electronic fiberglass cloth is stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products ranging from 8300 to 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The market for ordinary fiberglass remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [7]. - The valuation of leading companies in the fiberglass sector is at historical lows, with potential for recovery as supply-demand balance improves [7]. Renovation and Building Materials - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, with policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10]. - The demand for home improvement and building materials is anticipated to improve, supported by government subsidies and consumer confidence [10]. - Leading companies in the sector are exploring new models and extending their industrial chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].

Group 1: Logistics and Warehousing Industry - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with a total of 112.05 billion pieces from January to July, up 18.7% year-on-year [5][6] - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of concentration, with the CR8 increasing to 86.9, reflecting a 1.7 point year-on-year increase, indicating a significant rise in the market share of leading companies [6][7] - The revenue of the express delivery industry in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 5.3%, showing a narrowing of the price decline and a shift towards healthier competition [7][8] Group 2: New Energy Power Generation Industry - The report discusses the supply-demand contradictions and cyclical nature of the new energy industry, particularly focusing on the photovoltaic sector [10] - It emphasizes the importance of reviewing the photovoltaic industry's supply-side capacity cycles and new technologies [10] Group 3: Building Materials Industry - The report outlines a research framework focusing on sub-industries such as cement, glass fiber, and consumer building materials [11] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The report highlights breakthroughs in humanoid robots, particularly in their ability to walk without visual aids, indicating significant advancements in technology [12][13] - It suggests that the humanoid robot industry is rapidly evolving, driven by technological deepening and practical applications, with a focus on key manufacturers and core component suppliers [13][15] Group 5: Dairy Products Industry - The report indicates that raw milk prices are expected to continue declining, with a potential supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced costs and improved demand [17][18] - It notes that beef prices are entering an upward cycle, driven by supply reduction and decreased import pressures, which could enhance profitability for livestock companies [18][20] Group 6: Company Reports - Futu Holdings reported a strong net inflow of funds, with H1 2025 revenue and net profit reaching 10.006 billion and 4.72 billion HKD, respectively, marking increases of 74.89% and 109.76% year-on-year [22][23] - Baba Foods achieved H1 2025 revenue of 8.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.31%, with net profit rising by 18.08% [26][28] - Milky Way achieved a 13.17% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by a focus on intelligent supply chain services [35][36]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

证券研究报告 中材科技 (002080 CH) 业绩显著改善，特种电子布加速放量 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 22 日│中国内地 | 专用材料 | 目标价(人民币): | 36.24 | 公司公布上半年业绩：25H1 收入/归母净利 133.3/10.0 亿元，同比 +26.5%/+114.9% ， 其 中 Q2 收 入 / 归母净利 78.3/6.4 亿元，同比 +28.1%/+155.1%，公司上半年业绩接近业绩预告上限（10.4 亿元），主要 系玻纤及叶片业务同比均明显增长，且特种电子布逐步供需业绩增量，看好 公司主业基本面改善及高端电子纱优势地位，维持"买入"。 风电叶片销量及收入大幅增长，玻纤价格提升带动毛利率同比改善 25H1 公司玻纤/风电叶片/锂膜分别实现销量 67 万吨/15GW/13 亿平米，同 比-1%/+103%/+60%；收入 43.5/52.0/9.3 亿元，同比+13%/+84%/+22%； 毛利率 26.0%/16.4%/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of major stock indices in China on August 19, 2025, highlighting sector-specific movements and notable stock performances [3]. Market Performance - On August 19, the three major indices opened with mixed results: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.37% [3]. - The overall market showed a split performance with 2,237 stocks rising, 1,031 remaining flat, and 2,151 declining [4]. Sector Analysis - Popular sectors experienced a general adjustment, with declines noted in stock trading software, fiberglass, and GPU concepts [3]. - Conversely, sectors such as rare earths, machinery, and media showed positive performance [3]. Notable Stock Movements - China Shipbuilding Industry Company resumed trading with a significant opening increase of over 6% [3]. - By the time of reporting, the ChiNext Index had expanded its gains to 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% [4]. - Leading sectors included optical communication modules, CPO concepts, and F5G concepts, with over 2,672 stocks in the two markets experiencing gains [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the reconstruction of Ukraine, with an estimated total cost of approximately $524 billion, which is nearly three times Ukraine's GDP for 2024. Key areas of investment include housing ($84 billion), transportation ($78 billion), energy ($68 billion), industrial and commercial sectors ($64 billion), and agriculture ($55 billion) [3]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of domestic international engineering companies in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, despite the U.S. leading the efforts. Companies such as China Communications Construction Company, China Chemical Engineering, China National Materials, and China Steel International are noted as potential beneficiaries [4]. - In the cement sector, a policy to limit overproduction is expected to enhance capacity utilization, with a forecasted recovery in demand and price increases starting in August [4]. - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, with supply-demand imbalances persisting. However, the report anticipates that environmental regulations will accelerate the industry's cold repair processes [4]. - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [5]. - The consumer building materials sector is projected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases across various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards [5]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market price is stabilizing, but demand remains low due to seasonal factors, with July's production down 5.6% year-on-year to 146 million tons [9]. Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with regional prices dropping by 1-4% per weight box. The report predicts ongoing price fluctuations due to limited demand improvement [14]. Company Announcements - Three companies reported their mid-year results: - **Sanhe Building Materials**: Revenue of 5.816 billion yuan, up 0.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 107.53% [17]. - **Puyang Refractories**: Revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, but net profit down 48.3% [18]. - **Tianan New Materials**: Revenue of 1.444 billion yuan, up 3.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.59% [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly in AI materials and traditional building materials entering a price increase season [1][3]. Core Insights - The AI materials market continues to expand, driven by the anticipation of mass production in the AI industry chain, which is expected to boost demand for related products [2][3]. - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with consumption fundamentals expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [10][24]. - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with price increases already observed in the Yangtze River Delta region [30][33]. Summary by Sections AI Materials - The M9 production for switches is expected to ramp up ahead of schedule, with core Q fabric suppliers also increasing production capacity [2]. - The demand for low dielectric fabrics is anticipated to rise alongside the production of GB200 and GB300 cabinets [2][3]. - The overall production ramp-up is seen as a key support for market trends [2]. Cement Industry - The opening of major infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet is expected to enhance market confidence and drive demand for cement [8][30]. - The cement market has seen a slight price increase, with certain regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 RMB per ton [33][34]. - The report highlights a potential supply reduction in the North China region due to planned production cuts for air quality improvement [32][33]. Building Materials - The report notes a significant policy shift in Beijing aimed at stimulating the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact consumption building materials [10][24]. - Companies in the consumption building materials sector are beginning to stabilize their earnings, with expectations of improved profitability in the coming quarters [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost management and pricing strategies among leading companies in the sector [25][26]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is currently facing price pressures, with average prices declining [41][42]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, which may lead to increased costs for glass manufacturers [42][43]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market challenges, with a focus on profitability in their automotive glass segment [44].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 关注景气低位反弹的机会 2025 年 08 月 18 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 37% 2024/8/19 2024/12/17 2025/4/16 2025/8/14 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《 基建投入持续强化 》 2025-08-11 《 PMI 走弱，需求侧等待新政策 》 2025-08-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.8.11–2025.8.15，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 2.88%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector remains in a weak economic environment, but changes on the supply side are more promising [1]. - The cement sector is expected to benefit from demand driven by urban renewal and supply restrictions, leading to improved market conditions [4][7]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in waterproofing products, which could enhance industry profit margins [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry consists of 73 listed companies with a total market value of 838.733 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 789.313 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a decline in real estate development investment, with a 12% year-on-year decrease, and a 4% drop in commercial housing sales area [7]. Key Companies - North New Building Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China Jushi: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Weixing New Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Sankeshu: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.5 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Huaxin Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.4 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Qibin Group: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Dongfang Yuhong: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Jianlang Hardware: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.3 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China National Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. Market Trends - The cement market saw a 0.2% increase in prices, with specific regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 yuan per ton [31]. - The national cement output for January to July 2025 was 958 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year decrease [7]. - The report anticipates a steady upward trend in cement prices due to rising coal costs and improved demand conditions [31]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from supply restrictions and urban renewal projects, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [7][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the waterproofing sector, like Dongfang Yuhong, for potential profit margin improvements [7].