Group 1 - The core point of the report indicates that the profit growth rate for Q1 2025 turned positive primarily due to a low base effect rather than an inherent improvement in the profit cycle [2][13][21] - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in the longest historical negative growth period, which has resulted in a very low base for comparison [2][15] - The analysis of Q1 2025 shows that overall demand has not yet shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth remaining weak [2][13] Group 2 - The report identifies that the profit growth rate in Q1 2025 exhibited structural differentiation, with significant contributions from the non-bank financial sector, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [3][33] - Non-bank financials contributed 51.4% to the profit growth, followed by non-ferrous metals at 33.4%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 30.4% [3][34] - Excluding these three sectors, the remaining industries continued to experience negative growth, with a decline of -0.61% [3][33] Group 3 - The report predicts that the inherent profit bottom for A-shares is not expected to occur before Q3 2025, considering the repair of corporate balance sheets and the impact of medium to long-term loans on industrial profits [4][36] - The analysis suggests that the difference in year-on-year growth rates between non-financial enterprises and household deposits serves as a leading indicator for A-share earnings performance [4][36][40] - The report also notes that the growth of new medium to long-term loans typically leads to an increase in corporate capital expenditures and profit expansion, although the current trend shows a decline [4][37][39] Group 4 - The report outlines that several industries are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in Q1 2025, excluding base effects, including optical electronics, feed, aquaculture, marine equipment, and others [41][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall confidence of enterprises has not yet recovered, with both capacity and inventory cycles remaining at low levels [26][31] Group 5 - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors such as clothing, automobiles, and food, as well as technology and military sectors [5][47] - The report recommends attention to cost improvement-driven sectors like aquaculture and precious metals, and structural opportunities in overseas markets due to improved trade relations [5][47]

1 五维行业比较框架介绍。股价表现受多重因素影响，单一指标难以有效指导行业比较。想要做好行业比较，需要对各种可能 影响股价的因素均进行分析并做出综合判断，并且对于未来可能的市场主导因素，应该赋予更高的权重。基于此，我们综合 市场风格、基本面、资金面、交易面、估值五个维度，构建了"五维行业比较框架" ，在非财报季时期，我们对于五个维 度进行等权打分，而在财报季，则给予基本面维度更高权重，并降低市场风格及估值维度的权重。 历史回测来看，五维行业比较框架表现优异，得分越高的行业表现往往更好。通过复盘2016年至2025年2月期间五维行业比 较框架的历史表现，可以发现该框架下得分越高的行业股价表现往往更好，按得分高低将行业依次分为第1组、第2组 、第3 组、第4组、第5组，各组的年化收益率分别为11.8%、1.3%、-1.4%、-7.5%及-10.5%，年化夏普比率分别为0.53、0.06、 -0.07、-0.35及-0.51。若通过做多第1组行业，做空第5组行业构建多空组合，多空组合的年化收益率为23.7%，年化夏普比 率为1.69。 6月主观因素判断。五维行业比较框架中，有三个维度涉及到一些主观判断，这三个维度分 ...

周二 A 股窄幅震荡，假日效应导致市场窄幅波动。周二 A 股小幅低开后进入窄幅震荡，全天波幅 有限，中小市值个股表现相对较好。上证指数距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之 遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。临近五一长假，市场担心长 假期间出现突发事件影响节后表现，因此总体表现相对谨慎。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资 开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管所谓"对等关税"的后续影响还 存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight declines in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3286.65, down 0.05% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw minor declines of 0.05% and 0.13% respectively, while the North Exchange 50 Index increased by 1.24% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (+2.60%), Machinery Equipment (+1.44%), and Media (+1.27%), while the worst-performing sectors were Utilities (-1.78%) and Oil & Petrochemicals (-0.55%) [2] - Concept sectors showed strong performance in PEEK materials (+5.60%) and dyes (+3.85%), while sectors like supercritical power generation and controlled nuclear fusion faced declines [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize after a brief adjustment, supported by positive economic data from Q1, including better-than-expected export figures and credit data indicating total expansion [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Finance, Food & Beverage, Utilities, Retail, Non-ferrous Metals, and TMT for potential investment opportunities [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced strong demand for the consumer goods replacement market, with plans to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative [4]