以下文章来源于创业黑马导师 ，作者吴世春 创业黑马导师 . 吴世春 梅花创投创始合伙人、卫哲 嘉御资本董事长、朱啸虎 金沙江创投主管合伙人、冯卫东 天图资本 管理合伙人、周鸿祎 360集团董事长、江南春 分众传媒董事长（排名不分先后）…… 我们在创业黑马 等你。✉️名字+项目，找到更多明星投资人。 1.一个人要发财的顺序，记住4步： 做些小事； 赢得薄名； 再混良圈； 终遇贵人。 赚钱，一定是赚认知范围内的钱。 2.提高自己的投资收益率，持续击败民间借贷利率。 创业也是一种投资，只不过是用你的时间和才华投资。 钱的进出只有两条线，一条是民营借贷利率，另一条是银行借贷利率。 银行借贷利率是3%到4%，民间是12%。 一个人的投资收益率持续低于银行借贷利率，有钱也会变成穷人。 吴世春 梅花创投合伙人、黑马加速导师 因为社会在通货膨胀，国家不断印钞。 收益率在银行和民间借贷利率之间，你会变成中产，赚中等的钱。 如果收益率持续超越15%以上，你没钱也会变成富人。 3.以末致财，勇于本守之。 用末业挣到的钱，要用本业去守住。 在古代士农工商，在工和商挣的钱，要去占买田买地，要去中科举。 挣钱的四种方式：用能力赚钱，用认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year-end market dynamics reveal a split among institutional investors, with some adopting a cautious approach to lock in gains while others see market fluctuations as a buying opportunity [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Fund Strategies - As of December 3, the average return of 4,686 active equity funds since November has been -2.67%, indicating a significant reduction in performance volatility compared to previous months [3]. - Notably, several high-performing funds with over 50% annual returns have shown reduced monthly volatility, suggesting that fund managers have likely made adjustments to their portfolios [4]. - A significant number of funds, 223, have implemented purchase limits to manage scale and protect existing investors, with some funds limiting daily purchases to as low as 1,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Investment Outlook and Strategies - Analysts expect that the A-share market will experience a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with a potential opening for cross-year investment opportunities [7][8]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and other technological advancements [8][9]. - There is a focus on sectors with high economic vitality, such as technology manufacturing and materials, as well as consumer goods that have already priced in pessimistic forecasts [9].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs warns of a potential softening in the U.S. labor market as private sector data indicates a wave of layoffs across multiple industries [1][2] - The number of WARN notices, which are required for companies with over 100 employees before layoffs, has surged to the highest level since 2016, excluding pandemic peaks, indicating a significant increase in layoffs [1][2] - Major sectors driving this increase include technology, industrial goods, and food and beverage [1] Group 1 - The report highlights that the number of layoff announcements has reached levels typically seen only during economic recessions, with a notable increase in layoffs from large companies like Amazon, which plans to cut approximately 14,000 corporate positions [1][2] - Goldman Sachs economists express concern that the rising layoff signals indicate "increasingly evident signs of weakness," as workers are finding it more difficult to secure new jobs [2] - The firm notes that while initial jobless claims remain low, this may not fully reflect the deteriorating labor market, as these claims often lag behind private sector layoff statistics by about two months [2] Group 2 - Despite concerns that artificial intelligence may be driving workforce reductions, Goldman Sachs states that current evidence does not support the notion that AI is the primary cause of recent layoffs [3] - The firm acknowledges that while AI may increasingly factor into workforce decisions, there is a lack of conclusive evidence linking it directly to layoffs [3]

Core Insights - Xu Zhou Rural Commercial Bank actively addresses the long-standing financing difficulties faced by small and micro enterprises through innovative measures, effectively promoting high-quality development in the local economy [1][2] Group 1: Service Innovation - The bank has established a clear "responsibility area" for each of its 102 branches, ensuring precise service coverage and direct access to credit resources for small and micro enterprises [1] - By integrating party member resources into a "financial pioneer team," the bank enhances grassroots service delivery, utilizing a "grid + big data" model to analyze financing needs and understand the operational challenges of enterprises [1] Group 2: Financing Efficiency - Xu Zhou Rural Commercial Bank has optimized internal processes to create dedicated financing channels, significantly improving the efficiency of loan approvals for small and micro enterprises [2] - A case study of a small technology manufacturing company illustrates the effectiveness of this mechanism, where the bank provided a timely loan of 2 million yuan, enabling the company to fulfill a large order and establish a stable partnership with its core client [2]

Group 1: Storage Market Dynamics - The storage spot market is experiencing strong demand, leading to continued price increases for finished products, despite high prices [1] - Customers with low inventory levels are gradually accepting new pricing agreements, providing manufacturers with confidence to raise prices [1] - The significant price increases are affecting retail markets, with online and offline retailers raising prices for memory modules and SSDs, potentially reducing consumer purchasing willingness [1] Group 2: DRAM Industry Forecast - According to TrendForce, the DRAM industry revenue is expected to grow by 30.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, reaching $41.4 billion due to rising contract prices and increased shipment volumes [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a significant increase in contract prices, with conventional DRAM prices expected to rise by 45%-50% [1] - The overall contract prices for conventional DRAM and HBM combined are projected to increase by 50%-55% [1] Group 3: Medical Device Market Growth - The Chinese medical device market is projected to reach ¥1.22 trillion by 2025, with over 33,000 production enterprises expected by the end of 2024, marking a 27.8% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The industry is transitioning from "catching up" to "running alongside and leading," supporting the "Healthy China" strategy [2] Group 4: Flu Season Impact on Pharmaceuticals - The flu season has started early in China, with a 237% increase in sales of Oseltamivir over the past week, and a 180% increase for Maviral [2] - The peak of the flu season is expected between mid-December and early January [2] Group 5: Cinema Industry Growth - As of October 2023, China has added 233 cinemas and 1,588 screens, totaling 15,438 operating cinemas and 92,556 screens nationwide [3] - County-level cinemas account for 21.06% of the total, while town cinemas make up 18.01% [3] Group 6: Innovations in Medical Technology - Novo Nordisk's Kyinsu, the world's first weekly insulin and GLP-1 receptor agonist combination, has been approved in the EU for adults with type 2 diabetes [3] - This innovation represents a significant advancement in diabetes treatment options [3] Group 7: Corporate Developments - Allianz Partners plans to lay off 1,500 to 1,800 employees over the next 12-18 months, primarily in call center roles due to automation [5] - Novartis announced plans to cut up to 550 jobs in Switzerland by the end of 2027 as part of production adjustments [5]

Core Points - Guizhou Comprehensive Bonded Zone has implemented a "no application, immediate enjoyment" policy for enterprises, allowing for direct disbursement of incentive funds without the need for application [1][3] - As of now, 11 enterprises have received a total of 1.15 million yuan in incentive funds under this new policy [1][5] Group 1 - The "no application, immediate enjoyment" policy allows eligible enterprises to receive funds directly, enhancing service efficiency and reducing bureaucratic hurdles [3] - Guizhou Dingcheng Rongxin Technology Co., Ltd. received funds without submitting any application materials, highlighting the effectiveness of the new policy [3] - The policy aims to support strategic emerging industries and innovation, with 11 measures identified to facilitate this transition [3] Group 2 - Guizhou Fuzhiyuan Supply Chain Co., Ltd. benefited from the policy and plans to invest an additional 7 million yuan to transform its factory, aiming for an annual production capacity of 260,000 tons [5] - The first batch of "no application, immediate enjoyment" policies has been fully disbursed, focusing on AEO certification, enterprise technology centers, and green factory construction [5]

Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - Global risk appetite has decreased, leading to a synchronized decline in both equity and commodity markets. As of the week ending November 21, the VIX and MOVE indices have shown significant increases, indicating heightened market volatility. Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with technology and growth sectors underperforming. Precious metals and crude oil have also recorded declines, while the Chinese bond market saw a slight increase. The US dollar index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [7][12][40]. Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The technology sector has faced notable declines, with the MSCI Global Index down by 2.5%. In developed markets, US stock indices experienced a slight rebound due to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but overall, they closed lower for the week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 2.7%. European indices also retreated, with the STOXX50 down by 3.1% and the German DAX by 3.3%. In the emerging markets, the A-share small-cap, ChiNext, and STAR Market indices fell more than the overall A-share index, which was down by 5.1%. Conversely, the Russian RTS index surged by 9.1% [20][27][40]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is characterized by a "bear steepening" yield curve, with the overall yield curve shifting upward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread has widened, indicating a marginal increase in long-term yields. In contrast, the US bond market is exhibiting a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve moving downward. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 71%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [40][42][51]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices have generally declined, with the South China and CRB commodity indices falling by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Among 13 major commodity futures, only three recorded price increases, with iron ore leading the gains. The US dollar index has risen by 0.9%, surpassing 100, while the Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.2%, nearing the 160 mark against the dollar. This depreciation benefits Japanese exporters but increases inflationary pressures [4][12][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stark contrast between the struggles of small businesses and the booming performance of large corporations in the U.S. due to the impact of tariffs, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this disparity [1][20]. Group 1: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, which account for 99.9% of U.S. enterprises, are facing severe challenges due to increased tariffs, leading to inventory reductions and even existential threats [1][3]. - Approximately 36 million small businesses contribute 43% of the U.S. GDP and are responsible for nearly half of private sector employment, yet they are heavily burdened by rising costs from tariffs on raw materials like steel and aluminum, which have doubled to 50% [3][5]. - The cost pressures have significantly squeezed the already thin profit margins of small businesses, forcing many to drastically cut inventory levels compared to previous years [5][9]. Group 2: Performance of Large Corporations - In contrast, large retailers like Amazon and Walmart have seen substantial revenue growth, with Amazon's net sales increasing by 13% to $180 billion and Apple's revenue reaching $102 billion, up 8% [5][11]. - Large corporations benefit from economies of scale, allowing them to negotiate better terms with suppliers and distribute tariff costs across a vast array of products, thus mitigating the direct impact of tariffs [11][16]. - The disparity in operational capabilities between small and large businesses is exacerbated by the tariff policies, which act as a magnifying glass on existing inequalities [11][18]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The struggles of small businesses are likely to have a ripple effect on the employment market, as many may resort to layoffs due to high costs and shrinking profits [13][18]. - Retaliatory tariffs from other countries are specifically targeting U.S. small business exports, further constraining their operational viability [13][16]. - The exit of small businesses from the market could disrupt supply chain diversity, potentially leading to increased costs for large corporations in the future [13][16]. Group 4: Consumer Impact - While large corporations have managed to absorb costs in the short term, the long-term exit of small businesses could reduce market competition, allowing larger firms to gain pricing power [15][20]. - The imbalance in the industry ecosystem may lead to higher hidden costs for large companies as supply chain connections weaken [16][20].

Group 1 - The company Zhejiang Tiantian Technology Co., Ltd. has completed the environmental assessment approval for its project to produce 50,000 sets of liquid cooling systems and 200,000 liquid cooling pipes [2] - The company is focusing on two main business directions: "vibration reduction business" and "lithium-based new energy business" [2] - The company will continuously monitor national policy guidance and market development trends, emphasizing innovation and improving its product system [2]

Core Insights - China's market exhibits strong "magnetic attraction" due to its vast scale and potential for cooperation and mutual benefit with global partners [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Size and Opportunities - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcased 461 new products, technologies, and services, with over 200 being global debuts, highlighting the country's innovation capacity [1] - The Canton Fair attracted over 310,000 foreign buyers from 223 countries and regions, with nearly a 10% increase in buyers from Belt and Road Initiative countries [1][2] - China's retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, reinforcing its position as the world's second-largest consumer and import market [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Business Environment - In the first nine months of the year, China established 48,921 new foreign-invested enterprises, marking a 16.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust foreign investment climate [3] - The reduction of the negative list for foreign investment and the expansion of visa-free travel for foreign businesses reflect China's commitment to creating a favorable business environment [3] Group 3: Global Cooperation and Future Growth - The ongoing collaboration between China and global businesses is seen as a pathway to shared opportunities and growth, with many foreign companies expressing confidence in the Chinese market [3][4] - Major foreign investment projects have been successfully launched in China this year, demonstrating the country's appeal as a destination for international business [3]