国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周双胶纸市场价格小幅下调。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5133元/吨，环比下跌0.58%，本 周趋势由稳转跌；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4795元/吨，环比下跌26元/吨，跌幅0.54%，本周跌幅环比扩大0.15个百分点。影响 市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸厂开工变化不大，供应端基本维持稳定；第二，经销商拿货偏谨慎，出货压力仍存；第三，目前 出版订单尚未开印，社会单有限，下游原纸消耗偏缓慢；第四，周内上游木浆价格下跌为主，成本面对双胶纸市场支撑减弱。（卓创资 讯） ➢ 后续展望：短期来看，下周供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Ministry of Finance has decided to cancel the anti-dumping duties on Zhejiang Kingdecor Co., Ltd. while continuing to impose duties on other Chinese manufacturers of decorative paper, following a positive final ruling from the Ministry of Commerce [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The Indian Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of anti-dumping duties for Zhejiang Kingdecor Co., Ltd. while maintaining duties for other manufacturers, with rates set at $110/ton for Shandong Boxing Ouhua Special Paper Co., Ltd. and Zibo OU-MU Special Paper Co., Ltd., and $297/ton for Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - The anti-dumping measures are effective from December 27, 2021, and will last for five years [1]. - The investigation into the anti-dumping duties was initiated on September 30, 2020, based on a complaint from ITC Limited Paperboards and Specialty Papers Division [2]. Group 2: Investigation and Review Process - The Ministry of Commerce initiated a review investigation on March 28, 2024, based on requests from Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. and various Indian importers and manufacturers [3]. - This review aims to reassess the scope of the products involved and to re-determine the dumping margins, covering all aspects of previous final investigation results [3]. - The positive final ruling from the Ministry of Commerce was issued on March 25, 2025, confirming the findings of the review [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Industry Co., Ltd. is actively managing its financial and operational risks while navigating a challenging market environment, particularly in the paper industry, which is facing price pressures and fluctuating demand. Financial Performance - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, with total revenue reaching 54.79 billion yuan, driven by a rise in sales from its recycled pulp board project in Malaysia [14][5]. - The net profit for 2024 saw a decline due to increased operating expenses and reduced non-recurring income, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a net loss [5][14]. - The company's asset-liability ratio remains low, indicating a stable financial structure, with cash reserves providing a buffer for debt repayment [2][1]. Market Position - Jingxing Paper is recognized as a leading player in the domestic corrugated paper industry, benefiting from a favorable market position and high operational efficiency [1][2]. - The company maintains a diverse product portfolio, with packaging paper accounting for approximately 74.99% of its revenue in 2024 [14][15]. - The company has a strong market presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with over 80% of its sales concentrated in Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [15][14]. Industry Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with overall demand and prices under pressure due to increased competition and weak end-user demand [6][7]. - In 2024, the production of paper and paperboard in China reached 136.25 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.09%, while consumption grew by 3.56% [7][6]. - The industry is facing challenges from rising raw material costs, particularly for waste paper and wood pulp, which significantly impact production costs [8][9]. Investment Projects - The company has invested significantly in a recycled pulp board project in Malaysia, with total investments amounting to 19.22 billion yuan, aimed at securing raw material supply [4][5]. - The project is expected to reach an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons, with the first phase already operational and contributing to revenue [4][14]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks related to raw material price volatility, particularly for waste paper and wood pulp, which constitute a significant portion of production costs [23][24]. - Geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations associated with overseas investments, particularly in Malaysia, could impact financial stability [2][5]. - Environmental regulations and compliance costs are increasing, posing additional operational challenges for the company [11][19].

Group 1 - Linping Development Co., Ltd. has submitted its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a fundraising target of 1.2 billion yuan for two major projects [3] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard, and was established in 2002 with a registered capital of 56.5611 million yuan [3] - The company plans to use the raised funds for a 900,000-ton green and intelligent manufacturing new materials project (Phase II) and a 600,000-ton bio-based fiber green intelligent manufacturing new materials project [3] Group 2 - Li Jianshe is the controlling shareholder, holding 84.86% of the company's shares, and through an investment partnership, he indirectly controls an additional 3.54% of the voting rights, totaling 88.40% [5] - Li Jianshe has a background in transportation and paper trading, and has held various positions within the company since its inception [6] Group 3 - The company's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 2.879 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 2.485 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 154 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 153 million yuan [6] - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2024 due to the impact of Typhoon "Bebinca," which caused damage to facilities and inventory, leading to a production halt of over 30 days [6] - The comprehensive gross profit margins for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 7.67%, 9.85%, and 9.37%, respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Linping Circular Development Co., Ltd. is seeking to raise 1.2 billion yuan through an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, focusing on the production of packaging paper products [1][5]. Company Overview - Linping Development specializes in the research, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard, recognized as a high-tech enterprise with independent R&D capabilities [3]. - The company integrates waste paper utilization, cogeneration, and green paper-making, emphasizing environmental protection and resource recycling [3]. Market Position - Linping Development has a current production capacity of 1.2 million tons and ranks among the top 30 paper production companies in China, with a projected output of 1.0197 million tons in 2024 [4]. - The company holds a significant market share in Anhui Province, accounting for 35.65% of the province's paper and board production and 0.75% of the national total [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 2.879 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 2.485 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 154 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 153 million yuan respectively [5]. Future Growth Plans - The IPO proceeds will be allocated to projects aimed at producing 900,000 tons of green intelligent manufacturing materials and 600,000 tons of bio-based fiber materials [5]. - The investment projects are expected to enhance product upgrades, production capacity, and market share, thereby improving profitability [6]. - The company plans to phase out outdated production lines and invest in new intelligent production lines to enhance efficiency and product quality [6].

在当前全球经济复杂多变的环境下，纸浆价格波动频繁，给上下游企业带来了较大的经营风险。尤其对 中小企业来说，由于缺乏专业的风险管理团队和足够的资金支持，直接参与期货市场进行风险管理相对 困难。在此背景下，期货经营机构充分发挥服务实体的初心使命，为中小企业提供锁价、后置定价等基 差贸易服务，助力相关企业有效规避价格风险、实现稳定经营。 项目背景 作为纸浆消费大国，我国针叶浆的对外依存度接近100%，阔叶浆的对外依存度超过50%。长期以来， 纸浆定价权由海外浆厂主导，其美元报价模式与国内市场"存在鸿沟"，纸厂承受着原料剧烈波动（成本 占价格的70%~80%）的经营风险。 河北保定是我国北方重要的生活用纸生产集散地，拥有数百家中小规模生活用纸纸厂。近年来，受国际 纸浆价格波动的影响，当地企业的采购成本及采购周期大幅波动，订单并不稳定，产品竞争力随之下 降。鉴于此，企业规避风险、降低成本的需求较为强烈。 开展过程 通过基差贸易，上游锁定销售利润。 B企业是一家纸浆长协进口企业。2024年5月，该企业准备销售5000吨纸浆代理订单。为规避价格波动 风险、稳定销售，2024年4月29日，B企业与风险管理公司签订纸浆贸易合同 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周双胶纸市场价格主流稳定，个别小幅松动。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5163元/吨，环比 持平，延续上周稳势；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4821元/吨，环比下跌19元/吨，跌幅0.39%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.06个百分点。 影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸厂生产端变化不大，稳价出货为主；第二，经销商接单情况暂无好转，拿货心态谨慎； ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

海南自贸港与RCEP成员国贸易规模不断扩大，航运市场也快速升温。洋浦国际集装箱码头已开通辐射 东南亚以及RCEP地区外贸直达航线23条，其中今年新开通4条。海南港航国际港务有限公司市场营销中 心总经理刘振说，洋浦国际集装箱码头已形成覆盖东南亚主要港口、班期稳定、运力充足的航线网络体 系，未来对RCEP区域的货物集散、分拨配送等枢纽功能将进一步增强。 中新网海口6月16日电(记者王子谦)今年6月起，海南洋浦国际集装箱码头新开行1.5万TEU级集装箱 船"金吉源"轮，使"洋浦—东南亚(CV3)"航线首次串联起柬埔寨西哈努克港和越南岘港，进一步织密了 海南和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)区域的航运网络。 2023年6月2日，RCEP这一世界上参与人口最多、经贸规模最大的自贸协定进入全面生效新阶段。从基 础设施互联互通到产业链协同发展，海南自贸港与RCEP区域合作互促共进。 据海口海关统计，海南企业对RCEP其他成员国进出口值从协定生效前2021年的573.6亿元(人民币，下 同)提高到2024年的1029.8亿元，整体增长79.5%。RCEP其他成员国已成为海南最主要的贸易伙伴。 安永华南区主管合伙人黄寅 ...

近日，有网友在人民网"领导留言板"反映四川德阳一纸业公司疑似排放废气，导致异味扰民。对此，德阳市广汉生态环境局派工作人员进行了现场调查，并 就后续监管进行部署。 人民网"领导留言板"网友留言截图 该网友在留言中表示，近年来，在德阳广汉市向阳镇，晚上或凌晨总有恶臭刺激性气味出现，怀疑是周围的工厂废气未经处理直接排放。希望当地能成立督 查组彻查该企业以及恶臭气味来源。 留言中提到的公司为四川某纸业有限公司。收到留言后，德阳市广汉生态环境局会同高新区工作人员白天、夜间多次到该公司进行现场调查。 德阳市广汉生态环境局回复表示，去年以来已多次对该公司锅炉烟气和厂界臭气浓度进行了监测，数据均符合相关标准。但该公司为全天性生产企业，废气 为持续性排放，异味问题夜间稍显明显，经分析主要为夜间气压降低，风向风力不稳定，厂区异味飘散至居民小区，因扩散条件受限，造成异味区域聚集， 从而影响周边居民。因网友投诉区域距离该公司较近，受风向和气压等自然条件影响，造成区域"邻避问题"突出，公司纸浆特征异味对居民小区造成达标扰 民情况。 下一步，德阳市广汉生态环境局将加强对该公司的巡查力度，督促企业搞好异味管控；同时，不定时对公司外排废气进 ...