今年以来，泰铢累计升值超过8%。泰国看守政府财政部长埃克尼提·尼提坦帕帕斯15日表示，泰铢升至 近四年半来高位，可能对出口和整体经济运行产生不利影响，政府将要求国有企业和相关机构加快进口 进度。 中新社曼谷12月15日电 (李映民刘宇博)当地时间15日，泰国央行数据显示，泰铢兑美元一度升至1美元 兑31.523泰铢，创2021年6月以来新高。 《曼谷邮报》分析指出，泰铢持续走强，使泰国央行在本周三即将举行的货币政策会议前面临更大政策 压力，市场普遍预期泰国央行或释放进一步宽松信号。 与此同时，美国新一轮关税措施正加重泰国出口企业负担。尽管泰国官方已在一定程度上抑制黄金交易 相关资金流动对汇率的影响，但旅游旺季带来的服务贸易外汇收入增加，仍对泰铢汇率构成上行支撑。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 埃克尼提表示，在经济仍较为依赖出口的情况下，泰铢过度走强可能对经济增长形成明显拖累。从当前 经济结构和发展阶段看，泰国经济尚未完全具备承受本币持续走强的条件。(完) ...

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，量化宽松，在提供充足流动性的情况下，也会带动货币购买力的贬值，甚至可能导 致美国通胀高企，黄金等贵金属将会受益。 黄金方面： 上周临近收盘黄金出现快速跳水，短线跳水近100美元，对短线走势结构形成很大冲击，但这可能只是短线获利盘平仓带动短期 抛盘增加，长期来看黄金依旧值得期待。 上周美联储的降息被视为是鹰派降息，但降息结果落地后，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创下历史新高，市场认为美联储并没 有那么鹰派，美联储的货币政策还会继续放松。 特别是美联储宣布每月购买400亿美元短期国债的储备管理计划，被市场解读为，美联储即将开启新的量化宽松，美联储明年可 能将购买约5000亿美元的短期国债，可视为激进的流动性投放信号。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，日线上升结构扩大化，形成上升中继形态，长期看涨。1小时周期价格基本收复上周的大阴线，多 头动能增强，短线可关注下方4325美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 上周原油继续维持下跌走势，但短线有下跌放缓的迹象，不排除短线会有反弹的可能，中长线受制于供过于求的基本面，多方 很难占据绝对的主动权。 若俄乌冲突解决，俄罗斯原油在短期内可能会快速重返市 ...

外国资金流出、进口商购买美元令卢比承压。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 由于与美国贸易协议的不确定性持续，印度卢比一度跌逾0.5%，至1美元兑90.4863卢比，触及纪录新 低。 由于与美国贸易协议的不确定性持续，印度卢比一度跌逾0.5%，至1美元兑90.4863卢比，触及纪录新 低。 外国资金流出、进口商购买美元令卢比承压。 ...

Currency Performance in Asia - In 2025, major Asian currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with the Japanese yen halting a four-year decline against the US dollar, initially rising from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The decline in the yen accelerated after the appointment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late October, attributed to his accommodative monetary policy, despite initial gains being driven by a weaker dollar and inflation-induced rate hike expectations in Japan [1] - The South Korean won also stopped its four-year decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit appreciated against the dollar, with increases of 5.4%, over 7.2%, and over 8.2% respectively [1] Renminbi Strength - Since the beginning of 2025, the renminbi has shown strong resilience, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.07 per dollar on December 1, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attributed to a relatively weak dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the currency's revaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund's October report highlighted the resilience of the Asia-Pacific economies in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple internal and external challenges [2]

Bond Market Issuance - In October, the bond market issued a total of 63,574.6 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including 11,695.5 billion yuan in government bonds, 5,604.7 billion yuan in local government bonds, 8,010.8 billion yuan in financial bonds, 11,836.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 343.4 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 25,649.0 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2] Bond Market Operation - The interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 26.6 trillion yuan in October, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.9% [3] - The exchange bond market recorded a transaction volume of 3.3 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 193.79 billion yuan [3] Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of October, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 3.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [4] - Foreign institutions held 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds, representing 54.7% of their total holdings [4] Money Market Operation - The interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 6.8 trillion yuan in October, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.7% [5] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, down 6 basis points from the previous month [5] Bill Market Operation - In October, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 3.9 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 3.3 trillion yuan [6] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.4% of all bill issuers, with a total bill issuance amount of 3.0 trillion yuan [6] Stock Market Operation - As of the end of October, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.8 points, an increase of 72.0 points or 1.9% [7] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 961.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% month-on-month [7] Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of October, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [8] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.2% of the total holdings, primarily concentrated in state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [9]

美国从战后布雷顿森林体系到石油美元绑定，花了几十年才搭起这个"货币护城河"，再加上全球产业链都拧在一起了，想"脱钩"谈何容易？ 就算两个国家说好不用美元结算，用自己的货币交易，可汇率忽高忽低、结算效率跟不上，照样影响生意。 去美元化根本不是换种货币那么简单，而是要把整个贸易规则、支付体系都推倒重来，这里面牵扯的利益太多，说是一场持久战一点不夸张。 大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要来聊聊去美元化。现在俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉这些国家，都在使劲想摆脱美元，比如做生意用本币结算、调整外汇 储备这些操作，但美元的地位真的可以撼动吗？ 全球货币的"路径依赖" 全球对美元的依赖已经深到骨子里了，这么多年下来，美元在全球外汇储备里占比一直没低于60%，国际贸易中一半以上的结算都用它，这可不是一天两天 形成的。 美元薅羊毛的"独门绝技" 美国凭着自己的经济实力、军事实力，还有制定国际规则的权力，让全世界都离不开美元。 美元能这么横，核心就是握着个叫"铸币税"的宝贝，说通俗点就是"空手套白狼"的本事。 一个国家的央行印钱，几乎没什么成本，可只要大家都认这钱，就能拿着它买土地、矿产、公司股权这些真金白银的东西，这种无本万利的买卖 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese yuan has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency, indicating a shift away from the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and finance [1][9][11] - The rise of the yuan is driven by its ability to meet the global demand for a reliable currency, providing security, stability, and convenience in transactions [3][5][7] Group 1: Yuan's Competitive Advantages - The yuan's ascent is attributed to its ability to address key pain points in global trade, such as high costs, significant risks, and dependency on third-party systems [18][25] - Direct settlement in yuan can save businesses 1%-3% in exchange costs, enhancing profit margins significantly [20][25] - The yuan's non-hegemonic nature allows countries to avoid the risks associated with US dollar dominance, such as financial sanctions and asset freezes [22][25] Group 2: Decline of Dollar Dominance - The decline of the dollar's status is not due to the yuan "stealing" its position, but rather the erosion of trust in the dollar as the US continues to print money to manage its debt [9][11][16] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to a 30-year low of 56.32%, reflecting a collective judgment by central banks that holding too much dollar-denominated assets poses greater risks than rewards [11][16] - Traditional US allies are also reducing their holdings of US debt, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar's reliability [16] Group 3: Challenges to Yuan's Global Acceptance - For the yuan to become a mainstream global currency, it must overcome challenges such as the need for a more open financial market and a diverse range of financial products [29][31] - The yuan's status as a safe-haven currency needs to be strengthened, especially during global economic turmoil [33] - A shift in global perception towards "non-hegemonic currencies" will take time, as countries adapt to a multi-currency system [35] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next 3-5 years are critical for the yuan to solidify its position in key sectors like energy and manufacturing, with an expected increase in its settlement ratio [37][39] - Over the next 5-10 years, the yuan's share in global foreign exchange reserves could rise to over 20%, enhancing its influence in international financial rules and commodity pricing [41] - The long-term vision includes a multi-currency system where the yuan, dollar, and euro coexist, with the yuan's role supported by economic strength and trust rather than hegemony [45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction globally as countries seek to reduce reliance on the US dollar due to frequent financial sanctions and dollar hegemony [1][15] Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The US dollar holds an irreplaceable position as the global settlement currency, with 54% of global trade denominated in dollars and 90% of foreign exchange transactions involving the dollar [1][5] - The dollar's dominance is supported by strong network effects, as 88% of currency transactions involve the dollar, making it a default choice for many countries [5][6] - The US controls the dollar settlement chain, with over 90% of cross-border dollar transactions requiring US banks for clearing, allowing the US to exert influence through financial sanctions [6][7] Group 2: Foundations of Dollar Hegemony - The first pillar of dollar hegemony is economic strength, with the US GDP rising from 5% of the global total in 1850 to 25% by 1960, establishing the dollar as the global trade currency [7][9] - The second pillar is institutional legacy, with the Bretton Woods system establishing the dollar's central role in the global monetary system, despite its collapse in 1971 [9] - The third pillar is the oil-dollar linkage, initiated by the 1974 agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, requiring oil transactions to be conducted in dollars [9][10] Group 3: Challenges to De-dollarization - Current alternatives to the dollar face significant challenges, with Russia's SWIFT alternative covering only a small portion of global cross-border payments [10] - Other currencies like the Saudi Riyal and UAE Dirham have minimal shares in global trade financing, primarily due to a lack of liquidity and trust [10] - Despite rising calls for de-dollarization, countries still rely on the dollar for a significant portion of their transactions, indicating the dollar's continued dominance [13][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, dollar hegemony remains strong, with over $8 trillion of US debt held by foreign entities, making a mass sell-off unlikely [12] - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident, with countries exploring local currency trade agreements, but the dollar will still dominate major commodity trade and cross-border investment [14][15] - The conclusion is that while the dollar's immediate collapse is unrealistic, the trend towards de-dollarization is significant, prompting countries to diversify their currency holdings [15]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is not a short-term trend but a reflection of China's growing economic strength and the shift in the global currency landscape [1][21]. Group 1: RMB Strength - The recent rise of the RMB against the USD is attributed to years of underlying strength, particularly in cross-border payments, which have reduced reliance on Western systems [4][10]. - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now has 187 direct participants and 1,559 indirect participants, with 63.7% being foreign entities, covering 122 countries and regions [6]. - The "Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge" project utilizes blockchain for real-time cross-border payment settlements, bypassing SWIFT, with 164 transactions completed in 2022, totaling over 150 million yuan [8]. Group 2: USD Weakness - The USD is facing challenges due to high fiscal pressures and rising interest payments, leading to a situation where the Federal Reserve is forced into quantitative easing rather than tightening [15][19]. - The reliance on debt financing for AI industry growth poses risks, as tightening monetary policy could lead to increased financing costs and potential valuation collapses [17]. - The historical over-reliance on printing money without supporting the real economy has led to a decline in the USD's credibility and strength [19]. Group 3: Future Trends - The RMB's appreciation is expected to continue over the next 6 to 12 months, signaling important implications for personal finance and asset allocation [21][26]. - The shift from a USD-dominated currency system to a more diversified one is underway, with the RMB's rise aligning with this trend [24][26]. - Individuals are encouraged to pay attention to RMB-denominated assets, as their attractiveness is likely to increase with the currency's appreciation [26].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan, once considered a "regional currency," is now gaining significant traction on the international stage, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves reaching 2% by mid-2025, indicating a shift in the global financial landscape [1][20]. Group 1: Yuan's Role in Commodity Markets - The yuan's internationalization is being tested in the commodity markets, where historically, transactions have been dominated by the US dollar [3]. - In a significant move, by the end of 2025, China's Mineral Resources Group, along with domestic steel companies, negotiated to settle 30% of iron ore purchases in yuan, challenging the dollar's long-standing pricing mechanism [5]. - Algeria has also shifted 85% of its oil export orders to yuan, reflecting a broader trend among resource-exporting countries to reconsider their settlement currencies [5][6]. Group 2: Attracting Global Capital - To enhance the value of yuan-denominated assets, China has focused on attracting global capital through interest rate advantages and macroeconomic stability [8]. - In early 2025, China's Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, receiving subscriptions 30 times the issuance amount, signaling strong demand for yuan assets [10]. - Additionally, China issued €4 billion in bonds in Luxembourg tailored for European investors, further integrating yuan into international investment portfolios [10]. Group 3: Institutional Support for Yuan Internationalization - The internationalization of the yuan is supported by China's strategic planning, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which includes specific tasks for cross-border capital flow and financial openness [14]. - Various regional pilot programs, such as the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in the Greater Bay Area and the "Free Trade Island" in Hainan, are designed to facilitate the international use of the yuan [14][16]. - The yuan is positioned as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially for developing countries seeking stable and low-cost settlement options [16]. Group 4: Shifting Global Financial Landscape - The current international financial landscape is transitioning from a "unipolar dollar" system to a "multipolar coexistence," with the yuan emerging as an important variable [18]. - Although the yuan's share is only 2%, its growth rate is the fastest among major currencies, indicating a shift towards reducing reliance on the dollar rather than outright replacement [18][20]. - Countries in the Middle East and Africa are increasingly considering the yuan for trade settlements and foreign reserves, reflecting a desire to diversify away from the dollar amid US-centric monetary policies [18][20].