Core Viewpoint - 361 Degrees has demonstrated strong retail performance in Q2 2025, with both adult and children's apparel achieving approximately 10% growth in offline sales and around 20% growth in e-commerce sales, reflecting the company's effective channel operations and product recognition [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, 361 Degrees achieved about 10% growth in offline sales for both adult and children's apparel, and approximately 20% growth in e-commerce sales, meeting expectations [1]. - The company maintained a healthy inventory level with a channel sales ratio of 4.5-5 times, and the discount rate remained stable, with offline discounts around 30% and online discounts for shoes and apparel between 40-45% [1]. Group 2: Store Innovation - The company has launched 49 "super product" stores, which feature a wide range of products and a new display method that creates a sports lifestyle shopping experience, significantly enhancing customer attraction and sales [2]. - Each super product store can hold 700-800 SKUs, with 400-450 for apparel and 250-300 for footwear, and aims to provide a one-stop shopping experience [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation - 361 Degrees is focusing on "technology-enabled product innovation," introducing new products in various categories, including running shoes and basketball shoes, to meet diverse consumer needs [3]. - The brand is enhancing its visibility through sponsorships and promotional events, including a partnership with the Qingdao Marathon and a promotional tour by global brand ambassador Nikola Jokic [3]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The company has over 20 years of experience in the sports industry and is enhancing its product, brand, and channel strategies to achieve faster growth than the industry average, particularly in lower-tier markets [4]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.3 billion, 1.45 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 times, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company shows steady growth in its main brand and significant growth in the Saucony brand, with a positive long-term outlook driven by strategic initiatives and product expansion [1][2] Group 1: Main Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand's total revenue showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, maintaining a stable performance overall [1] - The e-commerce segment is expected to lead in growth, while the children's segment is anticipated to outperform the adult segment [1] - The running category continues to be a strong growth driver, with expectations of double-digit year-on-year growth in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Saucony Brand Performance - Saucony's revenue grew over 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q1 2025 [2] - The company is optimizing its channels and upgrading products, focusing on elite runners and professional product areas, which is expected to drive 30%-40% revenue growth for the year [2] - The expansion of new stores in lower-tier cities is expected to enhance store efficiency and contribute to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.37 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan respectively [2] - The target price is set at 6.58 HKD, with a revised PE ratio of 12.2x for 2025, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in consumer recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep's FY25E guidance remains intact despite a slight miss in 2Q25, with expectations for sales growth to sustain into 2H25E due to low inventory levels and undemanding valuation, maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of HK$ 7.20 based on 14x FY25E P/E [1][4] Sales Performance - Retail sales growth for Xtep slowed in 2Q25 but remained on track for 1H25, with management maintaining FY25E guidance of positive group-level sales growth and 10%+ net profit growth [2][4] - Xtep's core brand is expected to achieve FY25E guidance, driven by robust growth in the running segment, which saw a 30%+ YoY increase in 1H25E [3][4] Inventory and Discounts - Xtep's inventory to sales ratio was about 4 to 4.5 months in 2Q25, indicating a healthy inventory level, while retail discounts remained stable at 25% to 30% off [5][4] - Management expects inventory and discount conditions to remain stable for FY25E, with the inventory to sales ratio projected to stay around 4 to 4.5 months [5][4] E-commerce and Offline Growth - E-commerce sales growth was around 10% in 2Q25, with offline sales growth lagging, but retail sales growth improved in July 2025, driven by increased summer demand and promotional activities [6][4] - Saucony brand is experiencing a re-acceleration in growth supported by offline SSSG and new store openings, despite a temporary slowdown in e-commerce [6][4] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - The DTC transformation is ongoing, with plans to repurchase 100 to 200 stores in 4Q25E and 300 to 400 stores in FY26E, funded by internal cash flow [7][8] - The company is also set to upgrade its management system for products and members to enhance efficiency under the DTC model [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2][5][24] Core Views - Anta Sports has shown strong group revenue growth driven by multiple brands, with significant results from new retail formats [5][7] - The company is expected to stabilize its performance in the second half of 2025 after a temporary slowdown in the main brand's growth [7] - The multi-brand strategy continues to demonstrate strong potential for future growth, particularly with the acquisition of the Wolf Claw brand [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 779.5 billion RMB - FY2026E: 839.2 billion RMB - FY2027E: 900.7 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 16% for FY2023, 14% for FY2024, and gradually decreasing to 7% by FY2027 [6][15] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - FY2023: 102.4 billion RMB - FY2024: 156.0 billion RMB - FY2025E: 134.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 147.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 160.1 billion RMB - The projected PE ratios are 23 for FY2023, 15 for FY2024, and 18 for FY2025E [6][15] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth [7] - Other brands such as Descente and KOLON saw revenue growth between 50-55% in Q2 2025, continuing strong performance in niche segments [7] - The new retail formats, including Champion stores and SV collection stores, have shown significantly higher sales efficiency compared to traditional stores [7] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on enhancing its brand health and optimizing its online product distribution system [7] - The company has successfully maintained healthy inventory levels, with inventory turnover ratios around five months [7] - The report highlights the scarcity and quality of Anta's multi-brand matrix as a key competitive advantage [7]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International has shown steady revenue growth, but its performance is lagging behind competitors Anta and Li Ning, leading to a lack of market enthusiasm despite positive financial results [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while its second growth brand, Saucony, saw over 30% year-on-year growth [1]. - Xtep's revenue increased from 8.183 billion RMB in 2020 to 13.577 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.66% over five years [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose from 728 million RMB in 2020 to 1.238 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 11.22% [1]. Comparison with Competitors - Xtep's revenue and profit growth rates are significantly lower than those of Anta and Li Ning, with Xtep's revenue CAGR at 10.66% compared to Anta's 15.85% and Li Ning's 15.64% [2]. - In 2024, Xtep's revenue was 13.577 billion RMB, which is less than one-fifth of Anta's 70.826 billion RMB and half of Li Ning's 28.676 billion RMB [2]. - Xtep's net profit in 2024 was only 1.238 billion RMB, while Anta's was 16.989 billion RMB and Li Ning's was 3.013 billion RMB, making Anta's net profit 13.7 times that of Xtep [2]. Operational Challenges - Xtep's accounts receivable turnover days reached 132.40 days in 2024, significantly longer than Anta's 20.83 days and Li Ning's 13.87 days, indicating weaker cash flow [3]. - Xtep's net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 1.228 billion RMB, compared to Anta's 16.741 billion RMB and Li Ning's 5.268 billion RMB [3]. Market Valuation - Xtep's market capitalization is significantly lower than that of Anta and Li Ning, at only 13.539 billion RMB, which is less than one-twentieth of Anta's 234.948 billion RMB and about one-third of Li Ning's 37.638 billion RMB [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for Xtep is 11.31, lower than Anta's 15.60 and Li Ning's 12.93, indicating a valuation ceiling for Xtep [4]. Strategic Issues - Xtep's multi-brand strategy has not yielded the expected growth, with acquisitions failing to generate significant revenue contributions [5][6]. - Despite spending over 2 billion RMB on acquisitions, Xtep's fashion and professional sports segments have contributed only around 15% to total revenue, contrasting sharply with Anta's FILA brand, which accounts for nearly half of its revenue [5]. - Xtep has begun to divest underperforming brands like K-Swiss and Paladin, leaving only three profitable brands, with over 90% of revenue still coming from its main brand [5][6].

Macro Insights - The US June CPI shows partial transmission of tariffs, with core CPI rising 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3% [2] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with expectations [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.08% in May to 0.29%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6% [2] Fixed Income - The bond market remains in a warm supply-demand environment despite short-term disturbances, with credit demand still increasing [3] - The central bank continues to support technology innovation bonds, with expectations of a slight compression in the yield spread of related ETFs [3] - Short-term disturbances have led to a focus on medium to short-duration investments, particularly in high-quality city investment bonds and industries with high growth potential [3] Electronics Industry - ASML's Q2 2025 performance met prior guidance, with new orders significantly increasing, although logic customer orders saw a notable decline [5] - ASML projects Q3 2025 revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [5] - The semiconductor industry continues to see strong demand driven by AI, with expectations for domestic advanced process and storage expansion [5] Basic Chemicals - Glyphosate prices have increased by 9% year-on-year to ¥25,901 per ton, driven by seasonal demand in South America and production cuts [6] - The domestic and international planting areas are expected to rise, leading to a potential bottom reversal for glyphosate prices, benefiting leading domestic companies [6] Energy and Power Equipment - Gansu province has introduced a capacity pricing policy for power generation, which is expected to enhance the profitability of energy storage [7] - The policy sets a capacity price of ¥330 per kilowatt per year for coal power units and new energy storage, with a two-year execution period [7] - The domestic energy storage market is anticipated to see increased demand in the short, medium, and long term due to clearer profitability models [7] Construction and Engineering - The recent central urban work conference indicates a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development, focusing on quality improvement of existing urban infrastructure [8] - The construction materials industry is expected to face demand changes and supply transformation challenges as urban renewal becomes a priority [8] - Key areas of focus include pipeline renovation, architectural coatings, and infrastructure projects with quick asset recovery [8] Transportation - Airlines have maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points [9] - Despite limited capacity growth during the summer travel season, ticket prices have shown weakness, indicating potential challenges in revenue management [9] - The airline sector is recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, due to expected profitability improvements [9] ETF Market - The domestic ETF market expanded by nearly ¥580 billion in the first half of 2025, reaching a total scale of ¥4.3 trillion [11] - Bond ETFs and Hong Kong stock ETFs have become major attractors of capital, with significant growth in several thematic ETFs [11] - The performance of trading-type ETFs is closely linked to market conditions, while configuration-type ETFs can achieve steady growth through continuous marketing [11]

但其实，TikTok火的不止一个Labubu。2025年，越来越多看似无趣的传统商品，正在TikTok Shop爆发出前所未有的能量。假发是其中非常亮眼的一个品 类。 一顶无胶头套假发，被黑人美妆博主五秒戴好、立刻出门的画面，竟也能像开出Labubu隐藏款一样，引来海啸般的点赞与下单。 假发是发展历史超百年的古老类目，也是中国制造出海的明星产品。过去它因低价同质备受困扰，但最近却在TikTok Shop出海的过程中，找到一个全新 的增长故事。 旧模式下的新曙光 河南小城许昌，近年因明星超市胖东来频登热搜。其实在成为国产超市之光以前，许昌早就凭借另一个产业蜚声海内外：假发。 Labubu在外网火得无法无天，TikTok是热潮的最前线。 截至现在，#Labubu相关视频在TikTok英美区的累计播放量，已分别超过285亿次和236亿次。与此同时，Labubu系列盲盒连续数周登顶美国TikTok Shop销 售榜，各种挂包搭配攻略、端盒收藏视频应接不暇。 每天上TikTok刷两个开出隐藏款掩面尖叫的热门视频，再锐评一下各个泡泡玛特门店排队抢购景象，已是海外网友的冲浪日常。 全球每10顶假发，就有6顶来自河南许昌[1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported strong second-quarter performance, with offline retail for adult and children's apparel achieving approximately 10% growth, and e-commerce sales increasing by about 20%, reflecting the effectiveness of its high-quality products and improved operational capabilities [6][7] - The inventory level remains healthy with a stock-to-sales ratio of 4.5-5 times, and discount rates are stable, indicating robust operational quality [6] - The company is innovating in retail operations with the rollout of its "super product stores," which are designed to enhance customer experience and drive sales [6] - The company continues to deepen its product innovation strategy, launching popular items across various sports categories, which is expected to sustain growth [6] - Brand building efforts are ongoing, with high-profile sponsorships and events aimed at increasing brand visibility and engagement [6] - The company has been enhancing its operational efficiency and brand positioning, which is expected to lead to market share growth and outperform the industry [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue growth from RMB 84.23 billion in FY2023 to RMB 134.5 billion in FY2027, with a CAGR of approximately 12% [3][17] - Expected net profit growth from RMB 9.6 billion in FY2023 to RMB 15.8 billion in FY2027, with a CAGR of about 13% [3][17] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 0.46 in FY2023 to RMB 0.76 in FY2027 [3][17] - The company maintains a stable gross margin, projected to rise from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [3][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ANTA Sports is maintained at OUTPERFORM with a target price of HK$109.40, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HK$89.80 [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2Q25, the retail revenue of ANTA Sports' brands met market expectations, with the company maintaining its annual revenue guidance. The ANTA brand achieved low single-digit positive growth year-on-year, while FILA brand saw medium single-digit growth [3][13]. - The company is optimistic about achieving high single-digit growth for the full year, supported by the implementation of the offline lighthouse plan and optimization of e-commerce management [3][16]. - The performance of other brands, such as Descente and Kolon, showed significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% year-on-year [5][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - ANTA brand's retail revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline adult and children's sales increasing by low single digits, while online sales grew by medium single digits. The growth was lower than expected due to intensified competition and channel upgrades [3][13]. - FILA brand's retail revenue achieved medium single-digit growth, with strong performance in categories like golf and tennis [3][14]. New Business Development - ANTA's new business model has improved store efficiency, with champion stores showing 70-80% higher efficiency than traditional stores. The company is also focusing on younger consumers through smaller, more efficient store formats [4][14]. - The online team has been integrated to enhance e-commerce performance, with expectations of recovery in the second half of the year [4][16]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports are set at RMB 79.17 billion, RMB 88.06 billion, and RMB 97.66 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 11.2%, and 10.9% [8][16]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is RMB 13.56 billion, RMB 15.53 billion, and RMB 17.66 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.9X, 14.8X, and 13.0X [8][16].

在留言区，大家会把需求写得非常清晰，比如，"初一男孩，高168，100斤，800米跑2分34秒，一 般前脚掌落地，求推荐跑鞋，希望有一定防滑效果。"哪怕暑假来了，孩子们也在练习跑步、跳绳 等，希望提高体测成绩。 实际上，体测鞋在去年中考期间就已走红，今年势头更盛。那些过去认为是马拉松选手或是中产跑 步爱好者才会关注的回弹、抓地力等数据，现在受到更加年轻一代的关注。随着刚性需求的出现， 青少年跑鞋市场从之前的泛运动鞋分化出现在的体测鞋、足弓鞋、校园日常鞋等等，增长空间融进 了这些细分的场景和需求中。 体测渐成刚性场景 多个运动品牌均在体测场景布局了相关产品，比如安踏马赫4代PROv2、FILA KIDS超跑鞋、李宁 YOUNG骄阳、鸿星尔克极风3、361°飚速3pro等等。 随着刚性需求的出现，青少年跑鞋市场从之前的泛运动鞋分化 出现在的体测鞋、足弓鞋、校园日常鞋等等，增长空间融进了 这些细分的场景和需求中。 作者：叶心冉 封图：受访者供图 今年6月中考前，跑步资深爱好者姜明炜在社交媒体上发的一条"体考体测选鞋指南"的帖子突然涌 进来很多评论。目前，帖子的留言已经超过5000条，且源源不断在增加。在这个帖子里， ...