Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic copper smelting enterprise with a robust profit model and a significant asset injection from its major shareholder [3]. - The company has a well-structured mining segment, with the main asset being the Pulang Copper Mine, which has a stable annual copper production of 35,000 to 40,000 tons [3]. - The company is set to enhance its resource reserves and industrial layout through the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will increase its copper production capacity significantly [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in copper prices and has a strong profit outlook for the coming years [3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise established in 1958, originally part of China's first five-year plan [11]. - The company is the only publicly listed platform for the copper segment under the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) [16]. - The company has a total copper smelting capacity of 140,000 tons, ranking third in China, with significant production facilities located in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian [60]. Business Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain in copper and related non-ferrous metals, including exploration, mining, and smelting [17]. - The main revenue source is from cathode copper, followed by by-products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals [17]. - The company has a total copper resource reserve of 470,000 tons, with the Pulang Copper Mine accounting for 60% of this reserve [3][24]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 201.8 billion, 209 billion, and 209 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.297 billion, 2.412 billion, and 3.912 billion yuan [3]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15, 0.99, and 1.61 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a reasonable valuation range of 18.4 to 20.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential premium of 15% to 29% over the current market value [3].

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/9/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,370.00 | -100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,266.00 | +84.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,792.0 ...

· 有色金属季度报告 流动性好转叠加矿端偏紧，铜价有望进一步走高 | 投资观点： 看多 | 铜（CU） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | ⚫ 宏观方面：美国就业市场超预期疲软，而通胀相对稳定，美联储 9 月份重 启降息，且点阵图显示年内仍将降息 50bp。随着美联储重启降息，市场流动 性有望好转，利多铜价；我国经济运行仍面临不少风险挑战，四季度稳增长政 策加码的窗口有望打开，国内经济机遇与挑战并存。 预计铜价重心有望进一步上移，关注低位布局多单机会。低库存下，继 续关注沪铜正套机会。 ⚫ 风险提示 全球贸易摩擦升级、全球经济复苏进展不及预期、矿端扰动降温 | 铜（CU） | | --- | 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 LME 铜期货价格走势（美元/磅） 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 数据来源：Wind · ⚫ 产业端：供应层面，全球铜矿供应扰动频发，叠加品 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is supported by tight raw materials and boosted consumption. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply growth and demand boost, with positive industry expectations and gradual inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 3.2% and an amplitude of 4.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Incident**: Mining giant Freeport reported that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident, causing casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine suspended operations [6]. - **Domestic Meeting**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting, firmly opposing the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6]. - **Fundamentals - Ore End**: The TC fee continued to operate in the negative range, the supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the port inventory of copper concentrates might decline due to the decrease in raw material imports. The cost - support logic for copper prices remained [6]. - **Supply**: In the peak consumption season and with relatively firm copper prices, smelters were still enthusiastic about production. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials limiting production capacity, domestic copper production would maintain a slight growth trend [6]. - **Demand**: The central government would implement a more active consumption - expansion policy, and with the help of the traditional peak consumption season, the expectations of the copper industry were repaired, and the starting situation of downstream copper products would significantly improve [6]. - **Inventory**: With positive consumption expectations and the development of industries such as power and new energy in the application end, the demand for refined copper might significantly increase, and the previously slightly accumulated social inventory might gradually decrease [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,560 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 112,498 lots [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 82,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,475 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [17]. - **Bill of Lading Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [23]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a decrease of 325 lots compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility [28]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6986, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0510 [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 72,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton [31]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 7.78%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.27% [34]. - **Scrap - Refined Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 2,764.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,063.8 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared with June [39]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared with June [41]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared with July, a decline of 8.17%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 407.95 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.86 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,225 tons compared with last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,282 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,281 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 145,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons [53]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [59]. - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.5% and 14% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [70]. 3.7 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of July 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [75][76].

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares opened slightly lower, with the three major indices collectively in the red [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.45% [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, media, electric equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors showed notable gains, with the nuclear fusion and copper industries being particularly active [2][4] - The nuclear fusion sector rose by 2.67%, while the copper industry increased by 2.63% [4] Copper Industry Insights - The copper industry index led the gains, with companies like Jingyi Co., Northern Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting the daily limit [8] - A recent landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has raised global copper prices and sparked supply chain concerns, as this mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply [9][10] Nuclear Fusion Sector Developments - The nuclear fusion concept stocks collectively surged, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent and Farsen hitting the daily limit, and others like Shanghai Electric and Baoli Electric also seeing significant increases [10][11] - China Fusion Energy Co., known as the "national team" for controllable nuclear fusion, is focusing on overall design, technology verification, and digital R&D [14] Company Specifics - On September 25, the stock of Upwind New Materials surged to a limit of 20%, reaching a price of 132.1 CNY per share, with a total market value of 53.3 billion CNY [15][16] - The company recently completed a share transfer, changing its controlling shareholder to Zhiyuan Hengyue, with plans for a tender offer to acquire an additional 37% of shares at a price of 7.78 CNY per share [18]

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares opened slightly lower, with the three major indices showing a downward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.45% [2][4]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals, media, electric equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors showed notable gains, with the nuclear fusion, copper industry, superconductors, and CRO concept stocks being particularly active. In contrast, semiconductor, memory, and photolithography sectors experienced declines [2][3]. Copper Industry Insights - The copper industry index led the gains, with stocks such as Jingyi Co., Northern Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting the daily limit. Other companies like Electric Alloy, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Jiangxi Copper also saw increases [4][5]. - A recent landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has raised global copper prices and triggered supply chain concerns. The mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and the incident is expected to impact global supply significantly in the fourth quarter [6]. Nuclear Fusion Sector - Nuclear fusion concept stocks experienced a strong rally, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent and Farsen hitting the daily limit, while others like Hahuan Huadong and Zhongzhou Special Materials rose over 10% [6][7]. - China Fusion Energy Co., known as the "national team" for controllable nuclear fusion, aims to focus on overall design, technology verification, and digital R&D, establishing a technology R&D platform and capital operation platform [10]. Company Specifics - On September 25, Upwind New Materials saw its stock price surge to 132.1 CNY, reaching a daily limit increase of 20%, with a total market value of 53.3 billion CNY [11][12]. - The company announced the completion of a share transfer, with Zhiyuan Hengyue and Zhiyuan Xinchuang holding a combined 29.99% stake, making Zhiyuan Hengyue the new controlling shareholder. An offer to acquire an additional 37% of shares at 7.78 CNY per share is also planned, requiring up to 1.161 billion CNY [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]