Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo's copper exports are projected to increase by nearly 10% in 2025, rising from 3.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons [2] - The surge in copper demand is driven by the transition to clean energy and the artificial intelligence industry [2] - Copper prices have risen by 40% over the past 12 months, reaching a historical high of over $14,500 per ton at the end of January [2] Group 2 - Chile is expected to produce 5.3 million tons of copper in 2025, maintaining its status as the world's largest copper producer [3] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a cooling industrial economic activity in China before the Spring Festival, strong buying interest persists, leading to a potential increase in copper prices [1][2] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,239 per ton, with a rise of $139, or 1.08%, and trading volume increased significantly [1] - Domestic copper futures opened higher and traded around 102,280 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.35% [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context shows that the U.S. labor market is stabilizing, with non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which typically would pressure copper prices but has not deterred bullish sentiment [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere due to the upcoming holiday, but supply disruptions and a tight copper concentrate market continue to support prices [2] - It is anticipated that copper prices will consolidate before the holiday, with support levels between 98,000 and 103,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival. Domestic copper purchase and storage expectations boost future confidence, but the current high inventory during the traditional consumption off - season suppresses prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, market liquidity is decreasing, and cautious operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. In January, the copper production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The apparent copper consumption as of December 2025 was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, the downstream industry chain replenished raw materials. As the price warms up and the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has mostly entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases have decreased marginally [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 10 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On February 9, 2026, the LME official price was 13,043 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 63 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 US cents/pound [9] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 165,900 tons, an increase of 8,811 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, an increase of 1,025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 590,200 short tons, an increase of 1,130 short tons from the previous period [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side has a tight global copper concentrate situation, and the ore price strongly supports the copper price. The supply side may see a decline in domestic copper production due to raw material shortages and holiday factors. The demand side shows increasing purchasing and inquiry sentiment from downstream buyers and rising pre - holiday restocking intentions. Domestic copper inventories are seasonally accumulating. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,062 US dollars/ton, down 114.50 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 159,688 lots, down 9,925 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 60,697 lots, down 3,468 lots. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, up 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 19,475 tons, up 175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 165,939 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 590,211 short tons, up 1,130 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,725 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,860 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 165 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 77.37 US dollars/ton, down 6.42 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 52.37 US dollars/kiloton, down 2.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,890 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,190 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.50%, down 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.57%, down 0.26%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 26.52%, down 0.0377%; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, down 0.0460 [2] 3.7 Industry News - President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information and Technology Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance. The Ministry of Commerce held a symposium on automobile enterprises to promote automobile consumption. Fed's Bostic said there is doubt about the confidence in the US dollar. The US White House's Hasset said US employment growth may slow, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index is running at a low level, and the global mine tightness situation has not improved. The domestic production of copper may decline due to raw material supply constraints and holiday factors. The demand for pre - holiday stocking has increased, and domestic copper inventories have shown seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,840 yuan/ton, up 1,740 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,054.5 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 169,613 lots, down 5,693 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 57,229 lots, up 8,065 lots. LME copper inventory is 183,275 tons, up 2,700 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,300 tons, down 650 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants are 157,128 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 589,081 short tons, up 2,652 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,555 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,610 yuan/ton, up 1,595 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 285 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 70.95 dollars/ton, up 6.63 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 tons, up 17.8 tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 52.37 dollars/kiloton, down 2.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,950 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,650 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee for blister copper is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 132.6 tons, up 9 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 tons, up 0.43 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,790 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 80,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.91 tons, up 0.31 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.5 thousand pieces, up 415,345.5 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.79%, down 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.83%, up 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 30.29%, up 0.0087; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.52, up 0.0179 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth can help inflation fall to the 2% target. The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment. China's social logistics cost has been declining steadily, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February reached 57.3, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%. China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed Chair nomination ignited the risk - aversion sentiment, causing the non - ferrous metals sector to rise first and then fall. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market shows a complex and changeable situation. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.6 with a daily decline of 0.36%, a weekly increase of 0.51%, and an annual decrease of 0.67%. [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are bullish, with positive signals from Sino - US relations, US economic data, and strategic mineral reserve plans. The raw material end is also bullish due to tight copper ore supply. The smelting end is neutral with different profit situations for spot and long - term contract smelters. The demand end is neutral as the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The inventory is bearish as the global visible copper inventory increases. The investment view is oscillating upward, with a trading strategy of going long on dips. [9] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai copper is 100100 yuan/ton, a 3.5% decrease from last week. The spot premium of flat - copper in China has narrowed, and the LME copper spot premium has widened. The copper ore port inventory has decreased, and the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The refined copper output has increased, and the import loss has slightly widened. [10][24][35] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors lead to an oscillating market, with factors like Fed expectations, geopolitics, and AI earnings affecting the market. The raw material end is slightly bullish as the processing fee stabilizes, and supply concerns ease. The smelting end is neutral with production contraction and losses. The demand end is bearish due to weak seasonal demand. The inventory is neutral with an increase in social inventory and a slight decrease in LME inventory. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see. [94] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc is 24450 yuan/ton, a 5.36% decrease from last week. The domestic market has turned to a discount, and the processing fee has bottomed out and stabilized. The production of zinc ingots has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has declined. [95][96] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Nickel**: Macro factors are slightly bullish, with improved US consumer confidence and concerns about Fed policy easing. The raw material end is slightly bullish due to firm nickel ore premiums and reduced imports. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and prices of pure nickel, nickel iron, and MHP. The demand end is neutral with weakening stainless steel demand and high - level new energy production and sales. The inventory is slightly bearish as the global nickel inventory has increased. The investment view is wide - range oscillating, and the trading strategy is to go long on dips. [203] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro and raw material factors are similar to those of nickel. The supply end is neutral with a significant decline in production scheduling. The demand and inventory situation is slightly bearish with an increase in inventory and weakening demand. The basis is neutral. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see, with enterprises looking for opportunities to sell on rallies. [204] - **Main Data**: The closing price of LME nickel is 17235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% decrease from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel is 131840 yuan/ton, a 5.83% decrease from last week. The closing price of stainless steel is 13670 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decrease from last week. The nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the stainless steel social inventory has increased. [205]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Industrial Policy Boosts, Macroeconomic Disturbance Continues [1] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%. The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined last week. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [8][36] 1.3 Demand Side - The copper foil production rate increased against the trend, and the production rate of refined copper rods increased with the decline in copper prices. In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [9][40] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and LME and COMEX copper inventories reached high levels. As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [10][47] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Fundamentally, the shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope, which boosts market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production rates of downstream enterprises gradually decline, and the overall demand weakens. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. It is expected that the inventory pressure at home and abroad will further increase after the holiday. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached a new high since February 2022. According to data released on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. An index above 50 means economic activity expansion, and the latest reading also exceeded all survey expectations of economists by the media. US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one-year high but remained in the contraction zone. The prices paid index reached a four-month high [16] - Trump plans to invest $12 billion to stockpile critical minerals. US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a strategic critical minerals stockpiling plan worth a total of $12 billion, aiming to protect US manufacturers from supply chain shocks by establishing a commercial inventory mechanism and further strengthen national industrial security. According to media reports, this plan called "Project Vault" will provide a $10 billion loan through the US Export-Import Bank, combined with $1.67 billion in private capital, to purchase and store minerals for automobile manufacturers, technology companies, and other manufacturing giants. This will be the first such stockpiling project in the US private sector, not only setting a record in scale but also operating in a similar mode to the country's strategic petroleum reserve [17] - The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. On February 4, according to data released by the ADP Research Institute, the US private sector added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 45,000 and also lower than the revised previous value (the increase in December was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000). If not for the surge of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare services industries, the overall employment might have declined. By industry, many sectors showed a contraction trend. Among them, the professional and business services industry significantly reduced 57,000 positions, and the manufacturing industry also cut 8,000 jobs. The report continued the weak trend since the end of 2025, indicating that the employment market remained in a stalemate of "low recruitment, low layoffs" [17] - The US ISM services PMI in January reached a new high since 2024. Data released by the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the services PMI index in January was 53.8, the same as in December and also the same as the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. An index above 50 indicates that the US service industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, is in an expansion state. US service enterprises achieved the strongest continuous growth momentum since 2024 in January. With the recovery of business activities, the expansion momentum of the service industry increased [18] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year. Data released by the Chilean National Statistics Institute (INE) showed that Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 540,221 tons. The country's manufacturing output in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year [20] - Capstone Copper restarted its Mantoverde copper-gold mine during a continuous strike. According to foreign media on February 2, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Monday that although a strike by a union representing nearly 22% of its employees was still ongoing, its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile had resumed operations. The company reiterated in a document submitted to the Australian Stock Exchange on February 1 that it expected the mine's operating capacity during the strike to remain at 50% to 75% of the normal production level. Previously, union employees rejected Capstone's latest salary proposal, causing the strike that began in January to continue to ferment, and the strike is still ongoing, and the dispute between the two sides has thus escalated. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of cathode copper, accounting for about 0.4% of global copper production [20] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects. At the press conference on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2025 held by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Deputy Secretary-General Duan Shaofu of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that the industry will solidly promote the governance of copper smelting capacity. Currently, more than 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been stopped in China, and the excessive growth momentum of copper smelting capacity has been effectively curbed. The industry association will continue to cooperate with relevant national departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects and improve the situation of the increasing external procurement ratio from the source [20] - Anglo American's copper production in 2025 decreased by 10% year-on-year, and it lowered its copper production targets for 2026 - 2027. According to foreign media on February 5, the latest report released by Anglo American showed that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's copper production was 169,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. This was due to the lower ore grades of the Quellaveco and Collahuasi mines. The annual copper production in 2025 was 695,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, at the lower end of its production guidance range. Anglo American simultaneously adjusted its medium- and long-term copper production guidance, lowering its 2026 copper production target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 700,000 - 760,000 tons, slightly adjusting the 2027 target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 750,000 - 810,000 tons, and setting the 2028 target at 790,000 - 850,000 tons [20] - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and Capstone Copper will resume full production. According to foreign media on February 5, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Friday that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile had approved a new three-year labor contract, and the one-month-long strike officially ended. The company has reached an agreement with all four unions at the mine, and the mine will gradually resume full production from the current capacity of about 55%. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of copper cathode, accounting for about 0.4% of global production. Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde mine, and Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corporation holds the remaining 30% [20] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - The decline in copper prices led to an increase in downstream purchases, and the contango widened under the suppression of high copper prices. The spot discount continued to converge slightly. As the Spring Festival approached and downstream enterprises stockpiled, the spot supply was tight, and Shanghai copper changed from a discount to a premium. - The LME copper 0 - 3 remained at a discount, the New York - London copper price difference turned negative, and the arbitrage window for transporting copper from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to the LME opened. The LME deliverable copper inventory has reached an 11-month high [24] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of February 6, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 175,306 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 21.36%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 318,363 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 20.75%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. - As of January 30, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 1,782.99 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 78.17%. As of February 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 55,923 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 3.61% [26] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [36] 4.2 Downstream Production Rates - In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. - As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [40] 4.3 Inventory - As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [47]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper trading has entered a more complex and politicized new stage. The copper price dropped to the daily limit at the beginning of the week due to the drying up of liquidity and the weakening of speculative sentiment, and then rebounded under the boost of the "state reserve purchase" policy. The volatility of copper price reached a phased high. The release of indicators such as the US non - farm payrolls next week may change the holiday capital position - holding attitude [2]. - In the short - term, the trading logic focuses on macro - policy expectations, capital liquidity, and inventory structure changes. The price fluctuation reflects more of the emotional side rather than the substantial deterioration of the fundamentals. In the long - term, the core contradiction will shift to whether the strong physical supply - demand fundamentals can offset the negative impact of macro - policy uncertainties [7][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded due to the "state reserve purchase" policy. The release of US non - farm payrolls and other indicators next week may affect the capital position - holding attitude during the holiday [2]. - Fundamentally, the sharp drop in copper price led to concentrated delivery of downstream orders. The upstream processing enterprises took the opportunity to set prices, the enterprise operating rate rebounded, raw material inventory increased, and finished - product inventory decreased. China is in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, while the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper has slowed down [2]. - According to the model, the current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend with a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 99.48%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 20.27%, higher than the previous week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.74%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 15%, lower than the previous week and the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a low - cycle position [9]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [98549, 104071] with a price center of 101310; the price range of London copper is [12697, 13541] with a price center of 13119 [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52%, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The basis strategy is bearish, the monthly spread strategy is neutral, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and the need to replenish inventory before the festival, considering the significant increase in copper price volatility, it is recommended to use appropriate hedging tools to hedge the cost increase caused by price increases. Specific operations include batch - building positions near the support level of futures and buying up - and - out cumulative options in the over - the - counter market [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: China's non - ferrous metal industry association proposed three major countermeasures, including enhancing domestic raw material supply capacity, diversifying copper concentrate imports and overseas investments, and promoting copper smelting capacity management. Anglo American Resources adjusted its medium - and long - term copper production guidance downward. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to accumulate significantly [18][19]. - **Negative Information**: The registered copper warrants in LME warehouses increased to the highest level since late February last year. Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on products imported into the US from countries that purchase, import, or obtain goods or services from Iran [19][20]. - **Exchange Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued risk warnings and adjusted trading margin ratios and daily price limits for copper futures contracts [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - Next week, major macro - economic indicators will be released, including US core retail sales, China's CPI and PPI, US unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [22] Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Capital 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - At the beginning of the week, affected by market sentiment, copper prices dropped and then fluctuated within a range. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper weighted index decreased, and the market speculation degree returned to below the median of 50. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated around 101659, and the term structure of Shanghai copper futures premium continued to provide favorable conditions for delivery arbitrage [25]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation - LME copper and Comex copper maintained high volatility this week, with the amplitude narrowing compared with the previous week. The LME copper price was stronger than the Comex copper price, resulting in an increase in the inversion of the LC spread and a slowdown in the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper. The net long positions of Comex copper speculators decreased [26]. Chapter 4: Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - This week, the copper spot price dropped significantly, the discount narrowed and even turned into a premium. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week, and the procurement willingness of smelting enterprises was weak while the shipping willingness was strong. The Yangshan copper premium recovered, and the copper import window opened. The operating rates of some processing industries rebounded, but it is expected to decline next week due to the approaching Spring Festival [30]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - This week, the copper import profit increased week - on - week, the recycled copper import profit decreased, the Shanghai - London ratio continued to weaken, and the copper import window opened. The export volume of copper and copper concentrates from Chile to China decreased, and it is expected that the arrival volume of copper concentrates in China in January will decrease month - on - month [33]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - This week, affected by the increase in copper import profit and the opening of the import window, the global visible copper inventory continued to rise. The inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper and Shanghai copper slowed down. The total LME copper inventory increased, with the registered warrants increasing and the cancelled warrants decreasing. The copper concentrate inventory is lower than the same period in previous years [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - There are no maintenance plans for sample smelting enterprises in February, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the output in February is likely to decrease. The output in January 2026 is expected to be about 1.12 million tons, lower than that in 2025 but higher than that in December 2024 [41]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In January 2026, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises rebounded compared with the previous expectations. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, and copper cable enterprises increased, while the operating rate of brass rod enterprises decreased slightly [43][46]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded, with the volatility reaching a phased high. Near the Spring Festival, the activity of speculative trading will decline. For medium - term investors, attention can be paid to the price fluctuations in the range of 98000 - 100000. Short - term range operations are recommended before the festival, and chasing up or selling down should be done with caution [48].

2 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月08日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：基本面现实偏弱，长期良好，交易谨慎 强弱分析：震荡，价格区间：98000-110000元/吨 铜全球总库存持续增加 COMEX铜价低于LME铜价 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 01-01 01-13 01-23 02-09 02-20 03-04 03-15 03-26 04-07 04-17 04-29 05-13 05-23 06-05 06-17 06-27 07-09 07-21 07-31 08-12 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-25 10-14 10-24 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-19 12-31 万吨 铜全球总 ...