警惕反 V — 2026 年沪铜年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 有色小组 研究员: 钟远 从业资格号：F0303681 投资咨询号：Z0011824 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 警惕反 V —— 2026 年沪铜年报 摘要： 1.中国十五五开局之年+海外货币温和/财政宽松预期，叠加全球库存周期底部温 和上升，2026 年全球宏观预期总体或略好于 2025 年（底部+蓄势为主），但依 旧以结构化波动为主。 2.供应扰动或继续，矿产和冶炼的错配矛盾爆发，长鞭效应传导达到极致，而需 求端的宏大叙事在市场情绪热议后或将面临现实考验，供应端依旧为铜价波动的 主要矛盾之一。 3.全球库存延续累库。2024 年全球库存开启了累库周期，2025-2026 年库存趋势 延续，有望对铜价高位的行情性质带来了定性-泡沐。 4.铜价处在康波泡沫阶段，一切以突破 2006/08+2011 年或 2021-2022 年高点的价 格上涨全部定义成泡沫，即：铜价处在多空转换的战略多头尾部和战 ...

沪铜产业日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 105,320.00 | +3970.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,342.00 | +350.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -120.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 223,647.00 | +7332.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -45,864.00 | -3287.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 142,550.00 | -2775.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 145,342.00 | +33639.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 32,650.00 | -2125.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 93,271.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铜铝 | 周报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 电话：0571-87006873 铜价强势，铝价补涨 核心观点 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 | 1 宏观因素 4 | | --- | | 2 铜 5 | | 2.1 量价走势 5 | | 2.2 铜矿紧缺 6 | | 2.3 电解铜累库 6 | | 2.4 下游初端 7 | | 3 铝 8 | | 3.1 量价走势 8 | | 3.2 上游产业链 9 | | 3.3 电解铝去化放缓 10 | | 3.4 下 ...

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - **Demand End**: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - **Raw Material End**: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - **Smelting End**: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - **Demand End**: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - **Inventory**: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 厂广发期货 | 2026年1月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 326450 | 323500 | 2950 | 0.91% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 850 | 350 | 500 | 142.86% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 326950 | 324000 | 2950 | 0.91% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -1.00 | 80.00 | -81.00 | -101.25% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15368.24 | -13988.79 | -1379.45 | -9.86% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.83 | ...

铜月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 多因素支撑，高位运行 CONTENTS 目录 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应存在边际扰动，铜矿供应紧张格局不变，粗铜供应偏宽松。2025年12月国内精炼铜产量回升，预计1月产量小幅减少。 ◆ 需求：2025年12月中国精炼铜表观消费预估维持下降，进入1月下游开工预计持稳。海外制造业景气度分化，需求预期中性稍偏弱。 ◆ 进出口：2025年12月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差走弱，但仍维持正价差。 ◆ 库存：2025年12月上期所、COMEX库存增加，LME库存减少，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估1月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年1月，中国精炼铜产量预估有所下滑，消费仍有支撑，供应仍有过剩倾向。海外需求预期中性稍偏弱，而美国关税预期继 续推动现货偏强。宏观层面，美国金融流动性边际宽松，国内政策温和刺激，叠加海外地缘扰动强化战略资源价值，情绪面仍相对有利。综 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper lacks obvious driving forces, with prices oscillating at high levels, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 96,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the COMEX - LME price spread has fallen back to around $100/ton [3]. - Macro - and fundamental factors lack obvious driving forces for price movement. Geopolitical turmoil globally may intensify risk - aversion sentiment. In the short - term, the domestic spot driving logic is weak, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices, with a significant drop in China's imported copper concentrate long - term TC in 2026 and a strong long - term consumption recovery expectation [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term upward driving force for prices is not strong, but the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged due to the long - term positive fundamentals. For spread trading, the COMEX - LME spread has weakened, and it is advisable to reduce positions in the LME - SHFE positive spread trading when opportunities arise. Also, be cautious with the internal - external reverse spread as the current spot export profit margin has narrowed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatilities of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper have expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 16%, up from the previous week, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 19%, slightly up from the previous week [12]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread was 560 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than - 120 yuan/ton on December 26. The LME 0 - 3 premium was $38.60/ton on January 2, 2026, higher than $19.69/ton on December 24, 2025. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded [17][19]. - Position: SHFE and LME copper positions have decreased, while INE copper positions have increased. SHFE copper positions have decreased by 37,000 lots to 617,700 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Positions: LME commercial short net positions have increased. LME commercial short net positions increased from 76,400 lots on December 19 to 77,500 lots on December 24; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 64,800 lots on December 16 to 67,100 lots on December 23 [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium narrowed from a discount of 340 yuan/ton on December 26 to a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31. The Yangshan Port copper premium fell from $55/ton on December 26 to $51/ton on December 31 [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The global total copper inventory increased from 853,000 tons on December 25 to 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026. Domestic social inventory increased from 193,600 tons on December 25 to 238,900 tons on January 1, 2026 [37]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has oscillated, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level for the same period [38]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. Port inventory decreased from 680,000 tons on December 19 to 670,000 tons on December 26 [43]. - Recycled Copper: Imports have increased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85% [44]. - Crude Copper: Imports have increased month - on - month, and processing fees have rebounded. In November, crude copper imports were 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the southern processing fee was 1,500 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was $95/ton [52]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss in copper spot imports has narrowed. In November, refined copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The loss in copper spot imports narrowed from 1,900.19 yuan/ton on December 24 to 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in November but remained at historically low levels. In the week of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of wire and cable production decreased marginally [59]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level for the same period, and the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of December 31, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 240 yuan/ton, higher than 110 yuan/ton on December 26. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A - specific copper tubes was 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than 5,274 yuan/ton on December 26 [64]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral position for the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has continued to decline [65]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In November, the finished - product inventory of copper rods was at a historically high level for the same period, and the finished - product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level for the same period. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. From January to October, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%, and the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment increased by 5.90% year - on - year from January to November [76]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [77].

作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 12月31日（周三），智利统计局（INE）公布的数据显示，智利11月铜产量同比下滑7.18%，至451,815吨。 智利是全球最大的铜生产国， 统计局表示，该国11月制造业产出同比下滑1.3%。 （文华综合） liumingkang@smm.cn ...

迎接繁荣的起点，1 月如何布局？20251231 西部证券策略团队对 2026 年的 A 股市场有哪些预期？ 摘要 美联储降息及潜在 QE 将推动跨境资本回流中国，修复实体部门现金流 量表和资产负债表，为中国经济带来繁荣机遇。关注有色金属、新消费 和高端制造等受益行业。 西部证券策略团队预计 2026 年 A 股市场将创新高，波动性放大，有色 金属、新消费、高端制造等顺周期板块将表现突出，紫金矿业、华峰铝 业等公司具备投资机会。 坚定看好未来两到三年铜和铝市场，供给端紧张，需求稳定即可推动价 格上涨。工业金属是首选，其中铜和铝最被看好。 紫金矿业作为全球第三大铜矿公司，受益于铜价上涨和产量增长，预计 2026 年营收可达 800 亿，市值有望达到 1.6 万亿。 华峰铝业质地优良，产能扩张谨慎，具备 20%-25%的 ROE 及 15%以 上复合增速，目前估值较低，是穿越周期、具备绝对收益潜力的投资标 的。 华友钴业主要利润来源是镍，预计三年内利润翻倍，若镍价上涨，则可 能两年内实现。镍市场供给集中，受青山公司主导，印尼政策变化将推 动镍价上涨。 国泰海通整合效应将在 2026 年全面释放，客户数量行业领先， ...