Market Overview - U.S. inflation remains stable, with September CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.4%[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also below the previous 0.3%[6] - Year-on-year CPI and core CPI both rose to 3.0%, slightly above previous values of 2.9% and 3.1% respectively[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.01% to 47,207 points, S&P 500 rising 0.79% to 6,791 points, and Nasdaq increasing 1.15% to 23,204 points[9] - Chinese A-shares rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3,950 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.02%[16] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index increased by 0.74%, recovering above 26,000 points[11] Commodity and Forex Market - Oil prices ended a three-week decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.5% to $61.5 per barrel, but up 6.9% for the week[27] - Gold prices fell 0.2% to $4,118.4 per ounce, ending a nine-week upward trend[27] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable, with the onshore RMB at 7.123 against the dollar[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. short-term Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.48% and the 10-year yield at 4.00%[30] - Market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting[5] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October showed strong growth, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[30] - Moody's adjusted France's rating outlook to negative, reflecting economic concerns[6]

Core Insights - The production of power and energy storage batteries in China reached 1121.9 GWh from January to September 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 62.7%, which is notably higher than the growth rate in 2024 [1] - The sales of energy storage batteries surged by 75.5% year-on-year during the same period, with the tender capacity increasing by 178% [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed forecasts due to supportive policies, enhanced battery capacity per vehicle, and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1] Industry Trends - The global demand for energy storage and power batteries is anticipated to remain robust, with lithium salt demand expected to continue exceeding forecasts [1] - The peak investment period in the lithium industry has passed, and future growth will primarily come from increased production or ramp-up of existing projects, leading to a gradual decline in the growth rate of lithium resource supply [1] - As of September, the inventory-to-sales ratio for lithium salt refineries dropped to 28%, reaching levels seen in 2022, indicating that lithium salt inventory levels are at their limit [1] Supply and Pricing Outlook - The projected surplus in the global lithium industry from 2025 to 2028 is estimated at 101,000 tons, 78,000 tons, 29,000 tons, and 11,000 tons respectively, suggesting a gradual shift towards a balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at a bottom range, with forecasts indicating a price range of 80,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [1] - Companies with low-cost profiles and high-quality mining assets are recommended for attention as they may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the energy storage policy in 2025 will drive an unexpected increase in demand for energy storage batteries, with improvements in single vehicle battery capacity and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1] Industry Summary - Global energy storage and power battery market conditions are expected to remain favorable, with lithium salt demand anticipated to continue exceeding expectations [1] - The peak investment period in the lithium industry has passed, with future growth primarily coming from increased production or ramp-up of existing projects, leading to a gradual decline in the growth rate of lithium resource supply [1] - As of September, the inventory-to-sales ratio for lithium salt smelting plants has dropped to 28%, reaching levels seen in 2022, indicating that lithium salt inventory levels are at their limit [1] Supply and Demand Outlook - The projected global lithium supply surplus for the years 2025 to 2028 is estimated at 10.1, 7.8, 2.9, and 1.1 thousand tons respectively, suggesting a gradual shift towards a balanced supply and demand scenario [1] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at a bottom level, with forecasts indicating a price range of 80,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Companies with low-cost profiles and those possessing high-quality mining assets are recommended for attention as they may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices during the recovery phase [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic revaluation of key metals, particularly focusing on rare earths and cobalt [24] - Nickel prices are expected to be supported due to tightened supply expectations following Indonesia's new regulation reducing the approval cycle for mining plans from three years to one year [26][27] - Cobalt prices have continued to rise, with expectations of increasing supply tightness further driving prices up [30][33] - Antimony supply is expected to remain tight, providing a bottom support for antimony prices [34] - Lithium carbonate prices are projected to remain strong due to ongoing demand and inventory depletion [16] - China's dominance in rare earth supply is reinforced by stricter export controls, which are expected to support rare earth prices [18] - Tin supply remains uncertain due to ongoing challenges in overseas supply, which is expected to support tin prices [19] - Tungsten prices are supported by a tightening supply situation, with production rates slowing down [20] - Uranium supply tightness is anticipated to continue, supporting uranium prices [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's new regulation on mining approvals is expected to tighten future ore supply, supporting nickel prices [26] - As of October 24, LME nickel price was $15,085 per ton, up 1.04% from October 17 [26] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 408,500 CNY per ton, a 6.94% increase [30] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices have decreased, but long-term supply tightness is expected to support prices [34] - China's antimony production is projected to dominate global supply, accounting for 60% of the total [34] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a market average of 73,700 CNY per ton as of October 24 [16] - Demand from the battery sector continues to drive price support [16] Rare Earth Industry Update - China's strict export controls on rare earths are expected to tighten supply and support prices [18] - The report highlights the importance of China's role in the global rare earth supply chain [18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties, particularly from Myanmar and Indonesia [19] - As of October 24, LME tin price was $35,925 per ton, up 2.42% from October 17 [19] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten supply situation is tightening, with production rates slowing down [20] - Prices for tungsten concentrate have increased, reflecting supply constraints [20] Uranium Industry Update - The report indicates a continued tight supply situation for uranium, supporting price stability [21] - Recent production guidance reductions from major suppliers are expected to impact future supply [21]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Shengxin Lithium Energy Group Co., Ltd. regarding the amendment of its articles of association signifies a major adjustment in corporate governance, particularly the transfer of supervisory functions from the supervisory board to the audit committee, enhancing the company's governance structure [1][2]. Governance Structure Adjustment - The entire section on the supervisory board has been removed, with its functions now assumed by the audit committee, which will oversee financial information, internal and external audits, and internal controls [2]. - The audit committee will consist of three directors, including two independent directors, ensuring independence and professionalism [2]. Shareholder Rights and Decision-Making Mechanism - The threshold for shareholder proposals has been lowered from 3% to 1%, allowing more participation from minority shareholders [3]. - New provisions allow eligible shareholders to access the company's accounting books and documents, reinforcing their right to information [4]. Resolution Effectiveness and Execution Mechanism - A new clause states that minor defects do not affect the validity of resolutions, and disputes must be litigated promptly to ensure stability in decision execution [5]. Profit Distribution Policy Adjustment - The cash dividend policy has been revised to set minimum cash dividend ratios based on the company's development stage and funding needs: - At least 80% for mature companies without major expenditures - At least 40% for mature companies with major expenditures - At least 20% for growing companies with major expenditures [6]. - Conditions for waiving dividend obligations have been relaxed, allowing for exemptions under certain financial conditions [7]. Other Important Amendments - The responsibilities of the legal representative have been clarified, with the company bearing the legal consequences of civil activities conducted in its name, while retaining the right to seek compensation for intentional or gross negligence [9]. - The board of directors' decision-making authority has been expanded, particularly regarding external investments and guarantees, enhancing decision-making efficiency [10]. Amendment Procedure and Market Impact - The amendments will take effect only after approval by the company's shareholders' meeting. Analysts suggest that this governance adjustment aligns with new regulatory requirements and may enhance decision-making efficiency, although the effectiveness of the audit committee and the protection of minority shareholders' rights will need to be monitored [11].

Group 1 - The lithium industry has seen renewed activity, with lithium carbonate futures prices rising significantly, reaching a new high since September, with a 4.17% increase on October 23, closing at 79,940 yuan/ton [1] - A-share lithium companies experienced positive stock performance, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Suzhou Tianhua New Energy seeing notable price increases [1] - Despite the recent price uptick, market analysts remain cautious, suggesting that the current rebound is influenced by external factors and that the market is still in a phase of consumption seasonality [1] Group 2 - Some lithium companies have shown signs of profit recovery this year, with significant year-on-year net profit increases reported by Tianqi Lithium and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium, among others [2] - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group expects a net profit increase of 106.97% to 132.84% for the first three quarters of this year, driven by strong sales of lithium salt products [2] - Analysts emphasize the need for lithium companies to enhance competitiveness through various strategies, including supply chain management and innovation, to navigate the industry's cyclical nature [2] Group 3 - The lithium industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of capacity adjustment, with signs of marginal recovery due to various factors affecting supply and demand [3] - The current market situation is characterized as a "weak balance" following price declines and reduced volumes, with expectations for potential price increases in the fourth quarter due to seasonal and logistical factors [3] - Industry experts recommend that companies focus on resource management, technological investment, and market diversification to strengthen their competitive position and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group (SZ 002497) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting between 320 million to 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.97% to 132.84% [1] Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.2776 yuan and 0.3123 yuan [1] - The increase in performance is attributed to stable orders from high-quality clients and positive market feedback for certain end products, leading to a substantial increase in lithium salt product sales in the third quarter [1] - The company has improved operational efficiency by enhancing control over production processes and balancing mining, production, and sales, resulting in a recovery in business performance compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Yahua Group's revenue composition is as follows: lithium industry accounts for 51.54%, civil explosives production for 42.81%, and transportation services for 5.66% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report date, Yahua Group's market capitalization stands at 17.3 billion yuan [1]