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锡金属战略储备体系构建的必要性与价值评估
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-02 01:57
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the critical role of tin in the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced packaging technologies, driven by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and computing power [2][3][4] - Tin-based solder is essential for semiconductor packaging processes, with the global advanced semiconductor packaging market projected to grow from $37.05 billion in 2024 to $87.23 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 10.20% [3] - The demand for tin resources is highly sensitive to AI computing architectures, with an elasticity coefficient of 1.35 for training AI architectures, indicating a significant increase in tin usage with performance improvements [5][6] Group 2 - Global tin resources are unevenly distributed, with a total reserve of approximately 4.3 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 6.52% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in nearly 20 years [7][8] - The global tin production in 2023 was 312,000 tons, a decline of 2.35% year-on-year, with Indonesia, China, and Myanmar being the top producers [7] - The sustainability of global tin resources is challenged by the depletion of high-grade deposits, increasing mining costs, and environmental pressures [9][10] Group 3 - China's tin resources are concentrated in regions like Yunnan, which holds about 60% of the national total, but the country faces a mismatch in supply and demand due to regional disparities [13] - China's dependence on tin imports has increased, with imports reaching 249,000 tons in 2024, a 39.67% increase since 2019 [13][14] - The establishment of a national strategic reserve for tin resources is becoming increasingly important due to rising external uncertainties in supply [15] Group 4 - Various countries have developed strategic reserve systems for tin due to its strategic significance and supply volatility, with Japan implementing measures to diversify supply sources and establish reserves [16][17] - The U.S. and EU have also created frameworks for critical metal reserves, including tin, to enhance supply chain resilience [17]
中航期货锡周报报告-20250627
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]
2025年锡期货半年度行情展望:供应增量博弈需求疲软,平衡转弱逢高沽空
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 13:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tin market is in a pattern of tight current situation and weak future expectations. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, while the demand shows a marginal weakening trend. The supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [2][3][90][91][92]. - In the second half of the year, the US dollar index is still expected to be weak, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [2][15][90]. - It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Tin Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, the central price of Shanghai tin slightly increased. In March, the price soared rapidly, reaching a recent high of 299,990 yuan on April 2, and then returned to around 260,000 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the increase of Shanghai tin was 8.46%, and LME tin increased by 13.27%. The large price fluctuations led to the non - commercial net long positions of LME tin breaking historical records again in March [7]. - The price fluctuations in H1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, the price fluctuated narrowly between 242,000 and 254,000 yuan; from after the Spring Festival to before Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price fluctuated and rose to a historical high of 299,900 yuan under the influence of supply - side disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar; from after Tomb - sweeping Festival to now, the price returned to around 260,000 yuan, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) [10][11][12]. 3.2 2025 H2 Tin Fundamental Market Outlook 3.2.1 US Dollar Index - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the US GDP will slow down marginally in 2025, with the actual GDP year - on - year growth rate expected to be 1.7% in Q2, 0.9% in Q3, and 0.6% in Q4. The year - on - year growth rate may reach a low point in Q4, and the US economy is expected to rebound marginally in 2026, with an annual real GDP growth rate of 1.5%, which may be stronger than the 1.3% in 2025 [14]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI is expected to rebound in Q3, reaching around 2.9%, and then decline from Q4 to early 2026. The US dollar index will still be weak in the second half of the year, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [15]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Myanmar**: As of now, the resumption of production in Myanmar is still uncertain. In an optimistic scenario, some mines may start exporting in August, and the import volume of tin from Myanmar to China in the second half of the year is estimated to increase by about 3,075 tons compared with the first half. In a pessimistic scenario, the incremental supply may be less than 1,000 tons [31][32]. - **Congo (Kinshasa)**: The production in Congo (Kinshasa) is recovering. It is expected that the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) to China will increase by 3,000 - 4,000 metal tons in the second half of the year compared with the first half [36]. - **Other countries**: The production of other countries also shows an obvious increase. The import volume from other countries (excluding Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar) in the first half of the year still made a positive contribution of 2,611 tons [37]. - **New projects**: The new tin - mining projects planned to be put into production in 2025 have not been progressing smoothly. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 2025 will be 2,620 tons (in an optimistic scenario), and the production capacity will continue to be released from 2026 - 2027, with a total potential new supply of 38,480 tons [52][57]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Consumer electronics**: The global consumer electronics market is weak in 2025. The growth of global smartphone shipments is sluggish, with an expected year - on - year growth of 0.6% to reach 1.24 billion units in 2025. The ideal replacement cycle has been extended to 31.1 months. The global PC market is also not optimistic, but the emerging fields such as AI - related wearables and semiconductors are rising, partially offsetting the weakness of traditional consumer electronics [59][60][68]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the photovoltaic field, due to policy changes, there were "430" and "531" rush - installation effects in the first half of 2025, which advanced the installation demand in the third quarter. It is expected that the new domestic installation in the third quarter will be about 30GW, a year - on - year decrease of 49%. The annual new domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 240 - 250GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of around - 10%. The new overseas photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 270GW, with a year - on - year growth rate slowing down to only about 1% [81][82][83]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2025, the global tin supply is estimated to be 374,000 tons, and the total global demand is 381,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. There is a small supply - demand gap of 7,000 tons globally. In China, the supply is about 186,000 tons, and the demand is about 189,000 tons, with a potential supply - demand gap of 3,000 tons. The fundamentals will weaken in the second half of the year compared with the first half, with supply increasing by 2.6% and demand decreasing by 4.1%, and the supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [3][92]. - Investment strategies include short - selling when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92].
锡业股份: 云锡锡铟实验室有限公司2024年审计报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-12 12:42
Audit Opinion - The audit report states that the financial statements of Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory Co., Ltd. fairly reflect its financial position and operating results as of December 31, 2024, in accordance with accounting standards [1][2][3]. Management and Governance Responsibilities - The management is responsible for preparing the financial statements in accordance with accounting standards and maintaining internal controls to prevent material misstatements due to fraud or error [2][3]. - The governance body oversees the financial reporting process [2]. Auditor's Responsibilities - The auditor's goal is to obtain reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free from material misstatement, whether due to fraud or error [3][4]. - The auditor assesses risks of material misstatement and designs audit procedures to address these risks [3][4]. Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory Co., Ltd. was established on August 24, 2016, and renamed on June 18, 2024, with a registered capital of 130 million RMB [5]. - The company operates in mineral resource research, technology development, and related services [5]. Financial Reporting Basis - The financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis, following the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance [5]. - The company adheres to the accounting policies and estimates outlined in the financial statement notes [5]. Important Accounting Policies - The accounting period is based on the calendar year, from January 1 to December 31 [5]. - The company uses the historical cost principle for accounting, except for certain financial assets measured at fair value [5][6]. Consolidation Method - The consolidation scope is determined based on control, including the company and all subsidiaries [7][8]. - The financial results of subsidiaries are included in the consolidated financial statements from the date control is obtained [8][9]. Financial Instruments - Financial assets are classified based on the business model and cash flow characteristics, including those measured at amortized cost and fair value [13][14]. - The company recognizes expected credit losses based on credit risk assessments [17][23].
锡业股份: 云南锡业股份有限公司2025年度跟踪评级报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-29 09:46
Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited maintains a stable credit rating of AA+ due to its leading position in the tin industry, significant resource reserves, and strong financial performance, despite facing challenges from industry cyclicality and declining resource grades [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Company is recognized as a global leader in the tin industry, with substantial resource reserves and production capacity [1][7]. - The company has a strong market share, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% for tin products in 2024 [12][13]. Financial Performance - The total assets of the company were reported at 366.43 billion yuan as of March 2025, with total liabilities at 148.03 billion yuan [3][26]. - The company achieved a net profit of 15.70 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.51% compared to the previous year [23][26]. - Operating revenue for 2024 was 519.98 billion yuan, with a slight decrease attributed to a reduction in trade business scale [23][26]. Industry Context - The tin market is experiencing price fluctuations, with prices rising from 230,000 yuan/ton to 280,000 yuan/ton, influenced by tightening global supply and recovering demand [6][7]. - The overall economic environment in China is expected to support continued growth, although external uncertainties may pose risks [5][6]. Resource Management - The company has significant mining resources concentrated in the Honghe and Wenshan regions, with proven reserves of tin, copper, zinc, and indium [10][11]. - Resource reserves for tin have decreased from 66.70 million tons in 2022 to 62.62 million tons in 2024, indicating a need for ongoing exploration and resource management [11][12]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks from the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals industry, which can impact profitability due to price volatility [6][7]. - Declining grades of resources and lower processing fees are also potential challenges that could affect the company's financial performance [1][12]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency expects Yunnan Tin Company to maintain its credit rating over the next 12 to 18 months, provided it can enhance its capital structure and sustain profitability [1][2]. - The company is focused on strategic initiatives to enhance resource exploration and modernize mining operations, aiming to solidify its position as a key supplier of non-ferrous metals [9][10].
沪锡日评:国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降,国内精炼锡库存量较上周增加-20250529
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries are offset by the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State. This may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price was 257,000 yuan, down 7,690 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 96,332 lots, an increase of 64,437 lots; the open interest was 28,221 lots, an increase of 15,738 lots; the inventory was 7,984 tons, a decrease of 14 tons. The basis between spot and futures was 7,900 yuan, an increase of 7,790 yuan [1]. - **London Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was $31,495, down $915 from the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -$55, an increase of $56; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $27, an increase of $7. The global inventory was 2,680 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.17 on May 28, 2025, down 0.01 from the previous day [1]. Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share through an off - market conditional offer. The acquisition is subject to relevant regulatory approvals in Australia [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang mine in Wa State has adjusted its fee standards, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. Domestic tin concentrate processing fees are oscillating downward, indicating a tightening supply of tin ore. The expected increase in scrap tin supply is difficult to change the tight situation. The operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased. Malaysia's MSC has suspended tin production, and Indonesia has adjusted its export policies. The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, while the social inventory in China has increased [1]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate and inventory of tin solder in May in China. The import and export volume of welding strips may change accordingly. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in May may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries in China has remained flat [1].
淡旺切换,底线探讨 - 锡
2025-05-21 15:14
Summary of Conference Call on Tin Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the tin industry, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and the impact of tariffs on the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Tin Price Performance - In Q1, tin prices were strong due to supply contraction expectations from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Wa State, but supply pressures eased as production resumed [1][2]. - Domestic tin inventory continues to decrease, and LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories are also declining, indicating a strong near-term market outlook [1][3]. - The current backwardation structure in the market suggests a strong fundamental outlook for near-term contracts, while long-term price expectations remain pessimistic [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The anticipated recovery of production in DRC and Wa State could lead to an increase in supply by approximately 6,000 to 7,000 metric tons for the year [2][15]. - If the U.S. reinstates a 24% tariff, it could negatively impact demand by about 20% [5]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector's demand for tin is expected to be around 26,000 to 27,000 tons in 2025, but the demand from the electronics sector, particularly for solder, remains robust [6][9]. Tariff Impact - The current tariff situation is complex, with a temporary exemption in place. If tariffs are reinstated, the demand for tin could face significant pressure [5][7]. - Downstream companies are adapting by rerouting trade through Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, maintaining smooth logistics for electronic exports [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is projected to grow by 20%, while the home appliance sector is expected to grow by 5-6% [9]. - Despite a decline in semiconductor and consumer electronics growth rates, overall solder demand remains positive, with a projected increase of 3,000 to 4,000 tons for the year [9][10]. Price Forecasts - Tin prices are expected to stabilize around 230,000 CNY per ton in the short term, with potential declines to 200,000 CNY if supply increases significantly and demand does not keep pace [4][20]. - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual increase in the price center due to growth in AI and semiconductor applications, with supply growth expected from new projects in the coming years [21][22]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Downstream producers currently have sufficient inventory levels, having replenished stock after price drops in April [18][19]. - The market sentiment indicates a preference for stable prices, with a psychological support level at 230,000 CNY [18][20]. Future Demand Drivers - The AI industry is expected to drive future demand growth, although quantifying this impact remains challenging [22]. - The overall demand for tin is projected to grow slightly year-on-year, despite fluctuations in specific sectors [13]. Additional Important Insights - The recovery of production in DRC and Wa State is crucial for balancing supply and demand, with potential impacts on global tin prices [14][15]. - The overall supply-demand balance for 2025 is expected to shift towards a tight balance in the first half, with potential oversupply in the second half of the year [31]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the tin market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, pricing, and external factors such as tariffs.
关注中美贸易谈判,短期震荡
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 08:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term tin prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term sentiment boost from Sino - US negotiations, while the news of Wa State's resumption of production and the risk of weakening demand on the margin will exert pressure [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - From May 12th to May 16th, there are multiple important economic data releases and speeches from central bank officials, including Japan's April economic observer outlook index, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and US inflation data for April [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Pay Attention to the News of Wa State's Resumption of Production - From May 6th to May 9th, the processing fees of tin concentrate remained unchanged compared with last week. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,700 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan was 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - In March, the total import volume of tin concentrate was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The import volume from Myanmar dropped significantly by 87% to 2,252 tons, while that from Congo (Kinshasa) was 2,439 tons (2,551 tons in the same period last year), and the import from Australia decreased slightly to 1,084 tons (1,188 tons last year) [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Low Smelter Operating Rate, Import Window Opened and then Closed - From May 6th to May 9th, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 57.16%, remaining at a low level due to raw material shortages, far lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2024 [9]. - In March, the import volume of tin ingots was 2,101 tons, a year - on - year increase of 147%, reaching a historical high for the same period. From May 6th to May 9th, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 4,545 and 1,134 yuan, and the import window opened. In March, Indonesia exported 8,780 tons of refined tin, a 50% increase compared with the same period last year [10]. 4. Tin Solder - In March 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises rebounded to 75.81%, showing significant improvement compared with February [17]. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%, remaining at a high level. On May 2nd, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 4,397 points, showing a recent rebound. In March, China's semiconductor production was 41.97 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and the export of integrated circuits was 28.797 billion, a year - on - year increase of 25.12% [25]. - In March, the production of mobile phones was 137 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the production of computers was 3.212 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; and the production of optoelectronic devices was 163.9 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Attention should be paid to the impact of AI concepts and policies on consumer electronics consumption [26]. - In March, the domestic production of photovoltaic cells was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%, and the export volume of photovoltaic modules was 954 million, a year - on - year increase of 85%. As of May 9th, the operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass was 70.34%, a slight increase of 0.9%, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 26.68 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.18% [33][34]. 5. Tin Chemicals - As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of PVC rebounded to 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from last week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 652 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 705 yuan/ton, with production profits remaining in a large - scale loss [39]. - As of May 11th, the number of property transactions in 30 cities was 12,718, showing a seasonal decline and a significant year - on - year decline compared with 20,706 in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.13705 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area in March was 130.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3% [39]. 6. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Increased after Decreasing - From May 2nd to May 9th, the social inventory of tin ingots increased by 360 tons to 10,193 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 143 tons to 8,402 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 2,705 tons [47]. 7. Shanghai Tin: Pay Attention to Sino - US Trade Negotiations, Short - term Fluctuation - From May 6th to May 9th, the weighted open interest of Shanghai tin increased from 53,905 lots to 57,275 lots. Tin prices fluctuated, and the open interest increased slightly [54].
2025年4月基本面信息与走势总结
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 13:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information 1.1 Tin Concentrate Supply - Myanmar's Wa State promotes the resumption of production at the Manxiang Mine. The new mining license fee standard has increased significantly, which may put pressure on low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators, while large enterprises have an advantage [1]. - Alphamin's Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed tin production, which accounts for about 6% of the world's annual tin production [2]. - Xingye Yinxi's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yinman Mining, resumed production on April 16 after a safety accident in March [2]. - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) temporarily suspended production due to a gas pipeline explosion on April 1. In 2024, its refined tin output was 16,300 tons, and this event may cause delays in tin metal delivery [3]. - In March 2025, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,322.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 26,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55% [4]. 1.2 Refined Tin Production and Import - Export Trends - In March, Mysteel's survey of 20 domestic tin smelters showed that the refined tin output was 14,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 43,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In April, the planned output is expected to be 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [5]. - In March, Indonesia's tin ingot exports returned to the high - level range of last year, with 5,780.14 tons exported, a year - on - year increase of 49.8% [5]. - In March, China's tin ingot imports increased, exports decreased, and net imports turned positive. The import volume of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,094 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.02% and a year - on - year increase of 145.67%. The export volume was 1,673 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. In March, the net import of refined tin was 421 tons, and the cumulative net import in the first quarter was 119 tons [6]. - In the first quarter, Yunnan Tin Company's net profit was 499 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.08%. It is expected to produce 90,000 tons of tin products, 125,000 tons of copper products, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 102.3 tons of indium ingots in 2025, with a budgeted operating income of 46.5 billion yuan [6]. 1.3 Consumption and Balance - The Yunnan Provincial Grain and Material Reserves Bureau and Yunnan Tin Group signed a tin and indium metal reserve agreement to jointly promote the establishment of a "Yunnan model" for non - ferrous metal reserves [7]. - According to WBMS, in February 2025, the global refined tin supply had a surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February, there was a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February, the global tin ore output was 25,600 tons, and from January to February, it was 51,200 tons [8]. 2. Weekly Report Trends 2.1 April 7 - **Price Trend**: After the earthquake in Myanmar, the Wa State postponed the early - April resumption investment conference. Driven by funds, the tin market rose, with LME tin reaching a maximum of $38,395 and SHFE tin weighted index hitting 299,700 yuan. However, affected by the US - China tariff risk, LME tin gave back all its gains and closed at $35,000 [9]. - **Upstream Supply**: Malaysia Smelting Group suspended production due to a gas pipeline accident. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was concentrated at 11,000 yuan/ton, and smelters' raw material inventories were at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production schedule of domestic smelters in April and the resumption news from the Wa State [9]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Due to the high price, point - pricing by tin - related downstream enterprises above 290,000 yuan basically stopped. Domestic SMM tin social inventory increased to 12,000 tons, while LME tin inventory dropped to 2,990 tons. The risk of a short squeeze increased, but it was difficult in the short term [9]. - **Outlook**: The global tin market has many supply - related topics, but current consumption is average. It is recommended that downstream enterprises conduct point - pricing below 270,000 yuan. Tin prices are still in a high - level volatile state, and the trend depends on supply changes [10]. 2.2 April 14 - **Price Trend**: In the past two weeks, tin prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the US - China tariff and Alphamin's resumption of production, LME tin dropped to a minimum of $28,900, and SHFE tin weighted index fell to 236,000 yuan. Then, due to tight domestic tin resources and tariff game, prices rebounded quickly, and SHFE tin oscillated above 260,000 yuan [11]. - **Upstream Supply**: Although tin prices resisted multiple supply - side impacts, the impact of systematic risks on prices was large, indicating that the market focus has shifted to demand. Alphamin is resuming production, and attention should be paid to actual supply changes [12]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Uncertainty in demand increased due to potential US tariffs on the semiconductor industry. Domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly to 11,600 tons, and LME tin inventory increased to 3,140 tons [12]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is treated as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell and wait for supply changes [12]. 2.3 April 21 - **Price Trend**: Although SHFE tin rebounded on Monday, the overall price oscillated, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. LME tin was weaker than SHFE tin, and attention should be paid to its performance at $32,500 [13]. - **Upstream Supply**: The tin market is still in a tight supply situation. In March, domestic tin concentrate imports decreased year - on - year. Domestic smelters' raw material inventories were tight, and it was expected that April's refined tin output might decrease. Yinman Mining resumed production, and Alphamin gave up its 20,000 - ton annual output target [13]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Consumption in the semiconductor industry is highly uncertain. Due to the price fluctuations last week, downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, and steel - linked tin social inventory decreased to 10,600 tons. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday inventory replenishment before May Day [14]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is regarded as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell, and the medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption concerns [14]. 2.4 April 28 - **Price Trend**: Last week, domestic and international tin prices oscillated, with a narrowing fluctuation range. The weekly increase was over 2%. SHFE tin was stronger than LME tin, and SHFE tin weighted index oscillated above the 250 - day moving average, but the overall position decreased significantly. LME tin failed to break through $32,000 [16]. - **Upstream Supply**: In March, domestic tin concentrate imports continued to decline year - on - year. The weekly operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi were weak, and it was expected that April's tin output would drop to 14,000 tons. The import window for refined tin opened, and net imports might continue in April. The Wa State promoted the resumption of production, and the new fee standard might promote the large - scale and intensive development of the Manxiang Mine [16]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The global semiconductor consumption index has changed. LME tin inventory slowly decreased to 2,810 tons. Domestic SMM social inventory decreased slightly to 10,413 tons. The market is not optimistic about pre - May Day tin inventory replenishment. South Korea's export data was revised down, and there is high uncertainty in domestic photovoltaic and home appliance production schedules [17]. - **Outlook**: Overseas tin prices are weaker. The tin market is a rebound, and it is recommended to short - sell with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption factors [17]. 3. Conclusions and Outlook - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18][19].
锡业股份(000960):缴纳采矿权出让收益影响24Q4归母净利润 预计25年业绩受益锡价上涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-04 07:57
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.94 billion yuan, up 40.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a decrease of 67% quarter-on-quarter and 49% year-on-year [1] - The decline in Q4 net profit was primarily due to the costs associated with mining rights transfer payments, totaling approximately 514 million yuan [2] - Average prices for metals in Q4 2024 included copper at 75,500 yuan/ton (up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter), tin at 251,000 yuan/ton (down 3.6%), and zinc at 25,500 yuan/ton (up 8.4%) [2] - Tin ingot production in 2024 increased by 19% year-on-year, with production figures for tin, copper, and zinc at 78,500 tons, 130,300 tons, and 145,600 tons respectively [2] Strategic Developments - The company signed a cooperation agreement with the government of Keshiketeng on December 23, 2024, to integrate tin resources in the region [3] - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with Xingye Silver Tin on January 21, 2025, aimed at enhancing collaboration in resources, business, and technology [3] Market Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, with Alphamin Resources announcing a production halt and delays in the resumption of operations in Myanmar [3] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 2.41 billion yuan and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 9% and 3% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 show a year-on-year growth of 66.5%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 10 times [4]