明明是新消费龙头，业绩也不错，怎么就暴跌了呢？ "今日收到大量咨询，均聚焦泡泡玛特股价大幅下跌的驱动因素。" 10月23日，小摩发布回应泡泡玛特股价大跌的研究报告，但几乎没有什么有效结论。 泡泡玛特当天股价下跌10.6%，成交量达3倍日均成交量，连破250/230港元心理关口，创 4 个月新低。 尽管公司在周二盘后发布的2025年三季度销售额数据远超市场预期，股价仍出现上述跌幅。此次下跌始 于隔夜交易时段，泡泡玛特美国存托凭证下跌 10%，成交量达6倍日均成交量。受此影响，日本三丽鸥 股价也下跌 3.1%；同时，其他 "新消费" 板块个股同步承压：布鲁可（Bloks）下跌 5%、蜜雪冰城 （Mixue）下跌 6%、古茗（Guming）下跌 7%、老铺黄金（Laopu）下跌 2.5%。 小摩称，目前尚无单一明确的下跌驱动因素，以下分享几点观察与市场反馈： 动量交易平仓 + 大规模做空泡泡玛特 泡泡玛特23日成交额已超95亿港元，成为港股当日成交额最高的个股（阿里巴巴成交额为 78 亿港 元）。其做空成交额也创下上市以来新高，达约19.9亿港元；仅早盘时段，泡泡玛特的做空成交额就占 港股市场总做空成交额的10.8 ...

Core Insights - The market is closely watching which company will become the "first stock of card games" as Hitcard accelerates its listing process while the leading company, KAYOU, has not made significant progress since filing its prospectus [1] Company Overview - Hitcard, established only four years ago, has differentiated itself by accurately capturing the increasing commercialization demands of IP copyright holders [2] - The company focuses on adult collectible cards and has launched products based on popular IPs such as "Full-Time Master" and "Battle Through the Heavens" [2] - Hitcard has attracted investments from notable firms including Pop Mart, Sequoia China, and Tencent Literature, highlighting its strong industry and capital backing [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Hitcard achieved approximately 400 million yuan in revenue, representing a year-on-year increase of over 600% [5] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in 2025, although current production capacity may not fully meet next year's targets [5] Market Trends - The trend of "no cards, no drama" is emerging in the film and television industry, indicating that most new IP card authorizations are quickly absorbed by card companies [6] - Hitcard has established a significant market presence, covering about 70% to 80% of the film and television card market share [7] Competitive Landscape - Compared to KAYOU, which operates around 70 IPs and has a revenue concentration where the top five IPs contribute 86% of total income, Hitcard's model of "multi-IP, limited edition, high-frequency new releases" enhances its market competitiveness [8] - Hitcard's strategy involves frequent product redesigns and a focus on environmentally friendly materials, which increases production costs but also drives innovation [8] Strategic Partnerships - To strengthen its core competitiveness, Hitcard is pursuing equity partnerships with industry players, including Japanese game company Cygames and Goodsmile, to enhance its overseas IP acquisition and operational capabilities [9] - The collaboration with Tencent Literature is particularly valuable, providing access to a resource pool of over 1,000 IPs and shared offline channel networks [2][9] Industry Dynamics - The rapid commercialization of IPs is becoming a key driver for the growth of derivative products, with Tencent Literature aiming to enhance its IP commercialization strategy at the group level [11] - The success of Hitcard and similar companies is contingent on their ability to refine product design, user operations, and channel management while leveraging upstream IPs [21]

| 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入金额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (港元) | (%) | (亿港元) | | | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 100.6 | 0.60 | 6.55 | - | | 0981.HK | 中芯国际 | 80.0 | 8.04 | 6.02 | = | | 0883.HK | 中国海洋石油 | 20.02 | 0.50 | 5.71 | . | | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 637.5 | 0.71 | 3.75 | . | | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 45.92 | -1.75 | 2.99 | | | 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 168.3 | 2.25 | 1.71 | . | | 1347.HK | 华虹半导体 | 82.4 | 13.73 | 0.70 | . | | 2015.HK | 理想汽车-W | 85.1 | -2.07 | -1.14 | . | | 0763.HK | 中兴通讯 | 40.38 | 5.32 | -1.30 | . ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Pop Mart (09992.HK), highlighting the launch of new collectible figures and the subsequent decline in stock price, raising concerns about future revenue growth [3][5][6]. Product Launch and Sales Performance - On October 23, Pop Mart launched a new series of collectible figures to celebrate its 15th anniversary, featuring a lineup of popular characters [3]. - The hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" based on MOLLY saw a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, reflecting a premium of 6.5 times, while other regular variants had premiums ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 times [3]. - The new series did not perform as well as previous hits, such as the "WHY SO SERIOUS" series, which had a hidden variant that increased from 159 yuan to 1999 yuan, a premium of 11.6 times [3]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The lower premium on the new figures is attributed to the nature of the collectible market, where buyers are often deep fans of the IP, and the use of lower-cost PVC materials makes the figures more affordable [4]. - Pop Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after pendant, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a premium of 12.8 times [5]. Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - Since September, Pop Mart's stock price has declined nearly 30%, with significant drops occurring on October 21 and 23, including a nearly 10% drop on the latter date, marking the largest decline in six months [5]. - As of October 24, the stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86% [6]. - Concerns have been raised by analysts regarding the potential peak in revenue growth for Pop Mart, with expectations of slowing growth momentum starting next year [5][6]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, Pop Mart reported an overall revenue increase of 245% to 250%, with China revenue growing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue by 365% to 370% [6]. - Online sales in China saw a significant increase of 300% to 305%, while offline sales grew by 130% to 135% [6]. - Revenue growth varied by region, with Asia-Pacific up 170% to 175%, the Americas up 1265% to 1270%, and Europe and other regions up 735% to 740% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impressive growth of Pop Mart in Q3 2025, with significant revenue increases in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the Americas and Europe [4][11][12] - Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 is reported to have increased by 245% to 250% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue soaring by 365% to 370% [11][12] - The company's stock price has faced volatility, dropping 8.08% on the day of the earnings announcement and further declining by 9.36% shortly after, leading to a market capitalization decrease from over 400 billion HKD to approximately 312.1 billion HKD [4][11][13] Group 2 - The LABUBU IP has been a significant driver of revenue for Pop Mart, with its sales skyrocketing from 3.68 billion CNY in 2023 to 30.41 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 726.6% increase [15][16] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuing to innovate and develop new IPs to maintain competitive advantage, as the company heavily relies on LABUBU for growth [5][17] - Despite the strong performance of LABUBU, other IPs like MOLLY and SKULLPANDA have seen a decline in revenue share, indicating a need for diversification in revenue sources [16][17] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate significant price fluctuations for Pop Mart's products, with some items experiencing over a 50% drop in resale value shortly after launch [19][20] - The company has seen a resurgence in consumer interest with the launch of new products, such as the Halloween series, which achieved high resale prices, indicating ongoing demand despite previous price drops [20][21] - Pop Mart's founder has expressed a commitment to building long-lasting IPs rather than fleeting trends, highlighting the company's strategic focus on sustainable growth [21]

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) has launched a new series of collectible figurines to celebrate its 15th anniversary, but the market response has been lukewarm compared to previous successful releases [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes 15 regular and 1 hidden figurine, featuring popular characters like LABUBU and MOLLY. The hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" saw a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, reflecting a premium of 6.5 times [2] - Other regular figurines in the series, such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain," had premiums of 1.8 times, 1.9 times, and 1.3 times, respectively [2] - The new series did not perform as well as previous hits like the "WHY SO SERIOUS" series, where the hidden variant "Moon Shadow Mask" increased from 159 yuan to 1999 yuan, a premium of 11.6 times [2] Market Trends and Comparisons - The lower premium for the new series is attributed to the nature of the collectible market, where buyers are often deep fans of the IP, and the use of lower-cost PVC material makes the products more affordable [3] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after pendant, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a premium of 12.8 times [3] - Previous collaborations, such as with the movie "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," also achieved significant market success, with the hidden variant "Ao Bing Nezha" increasing from 69 yuan to 1159 yuan, a premium of nearly 16 times [3] Stock Market Performance - Since September, Bubble Mart's stock price has declined nearly 30%, with significant drops occurring on October 21 and 23, including a nearly 10% drop on the latter date, marking the largest decline in six months [3][4] - As of October 24, the stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86% [5] Revenue Growth Projections - On October 21, Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China expected to grow by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue by 365% to 370% [6] - Specific channel performance for Q3 showed offline channels growing by 130% to 135% and online channels by 300% to 305% [6] - Regional performance indicated significant growth in overseas markets, with the Americas projected to grow by 1265% to 1270% and Europe by 735% to 740% [6]

新京报贝壳财经讯 10月24日，港股泡泡玛特午后再度跳水，盘中跌超4%，上个交易日收跌超9%。 ...

Core Insights - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) launched multiple new figurines on October 23, celebrating its 15th anniversary with the "Celebrate This Moment" series, featuring 15 regular and 1 hidden variant, with significant price increases observed for certain models [1][2] - The premium pricing for the new series is lower compared to previous successful launches, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm for the brand's latest offerings [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 30% since September, with a notable drop of almost 10% on October 23, marking the largest decline in six months [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes popular characters like MOLLY, with the hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" seeing a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, a 6.5x premium [1] - Other regular models such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain" also performed well, with premiums of 1.8x, 1.9x, and 1.3x respectively [1] - Previous successful series like "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "LABUBU 4.0" had much higher premiums, indicating a shift in consumer interest [1][2] Market Trends and Financial Performance - The lower premium pricing for the new figurines is attributed to the nature of the products and the materials used, which are more affordable, leading to less collector enthusiasm compared to other merchandise like keychains [2] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after keychain, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a 12.8x premium [2] - As of October 24, the company's stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about revenue growth potential [4] Revenue Growth Projections - Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4] - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185% to 190%, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by 365% to 370% [4] - Performance across various channels shows offline sales growing by 130% to 135% and online sales by 300% to 305%, indicating strong demand despite recent stock performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant pullback in the stock prices of leading new consumption companies, such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, is attributed to valuation corrections rather than deteriorating fundamentals, prompting a reevaluation of the new consumption business logic in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, 2023, Mixue Group has seen a nearly 5% decline, with a 10% drop over the past five trading days; Pop Mart has dropped 9.3%, with a 19.3% decline over the same period; Lao Pu Gold has experienced a 13.8% drop in the last five trading days [1]. - The "new consumption trio" (Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group) has collectively lost over 280 billion HKD in market value from their peak [2]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group have significantly decreased, with Lao Pu Gold dropping from over 150 times to 35 times, Pop Mart from 128 times to 42 times, and Mixue Group from 48 times to 26.7 times [2]. - In comparison, traditional consumption leader Kweichow Moutai has a dynamic P/E ratio of 20.4 times, while international companies like Disney and Hasbro have P/E ratios of 23.7 times and 22.3 times, respectively [3]. Group 3: Growth Potential and Market Sentiment - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of growth for new consumption stocks, with some predicting that Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak in 2025, followed by a slowdown [5]. - The PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratios for Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group are currently below 1, indicating strong growth expectations despite moderate valuations [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the future revenue prospects of the new consumption sector, with expectations that product repurchase rates, usage frequency, and pricing power will be key indicators of revenue outlook [6]. - The overseas revenue share is also seen as a critical metric for assessing the growth potential of new consumption companies, with Pop Mart's overseas revenue share increasing from 23% in 2021 to 39% in 2024 [7].

Core Insights - The first week of the Double Eleven shopping festival saw a significant increase in the number of merchants and buyers on Xiaohongshu, with the number of merchants achieving over 10 million in sales doubling compared to last year [1] - The total sales of products exceeding 1 million also doubled year-on-year, with sales driven by buyers increasing to 2.5 times compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The categories experiencing substantial growth include women's clothing, jewelry, beauty products, outdoor goods, and fresh produce [1] - Notable merchants such as "CHOWKI's Store," "Chanchan WANG," "Taobo Sports Flagship Store," and "Tingqi Jewelry" all surpassed 10 million in sales during the first week [1] - The top-performing buyer, "Yike KK," achieved sales of over 73 million, while Xue Jiaying's sales in the jewelry sector exceeded 44 million [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The collectibles market, including items like blind boxes and trading cards, has shown explosive growth on Xiaohongshu, with the number of buyers in this category doubling year-on-year [1] - From October 10 to 20, the number of orders in the trendy toy category increased by 89%, driven by a 100% increase in the number of buyers [1] - The flagship store of Pop Mart broadcasted for 110 hours during the first week, resulting in a 15-fold increase in sales compared to the previous year [1]