Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in short-selling funds against Pop Mart has led to a significant decline in its stock price, with the short-selling activity reaching a one-year high since September [1][4]. Group 1: Short-Selling Activity - The cumulative funds for short-selling Pop Mart have reached a new high over the past year, contributing to the continuous decline in its stock price [1]. - An increasing number of foreign institutions have published bearish views on Pop Mart, echoing concerns similar to those seen during the AI bubble, indicating a lack of immediate evidence to confirm or refute these views [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart is expected to remain stagnant in the short term due to the absence of strong data supporting either bullish or bearish positions, leading to a stalemate [4]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of high growth driven by the Labubu product, with fears of a high base effect impacting future performance [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ideal time for bottom-fishing in Pop Mart would be when the premium expectations for Labubu diminish and market hopes for new hit products are low [5]. - Pop Mart is currently positioned between the expansion and peak phases of its product cycle, with market fears that it may soon transition into a downturn phase if new hit products are not developed [8][10].

12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，暴跌近10%，股价已从高点回落40%左右，为六周多来最大跌幅。与8月高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场人士指出，投资者担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二 手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 晨星分析师表示："美国销售可能走弱，会打击市场对泡泡玛特增长前景的信心。"在公司此前披露其美国地区三季度销售同比暴增逾1200%之后，海外销 售的延续性一直是投资者重点关注的指标。 原价159元的why so serious系列多款在二手平台上已破发，部分已跌超90元。 另一方面，近期海外做空报告频发，基于短期数据波动的景气投资人做空力量较强。部分外资机构预测明年中国及海外市场将出现10%—20%的下滑，市 场对未来业绩不确定性的担忧升温，进而引发估值下调与情绪恐慌，推动股价下跌。 信达证券消费团队表示，高频数据无法反映真实销售全貌：该数据基于信用卡、借记卡抽样调查，且月度数据存在后期实时修正可能；此外，其预收款 ...

晨星分析师表示："美国销售可能走弱，会打击市场对泡泡玛特增长前景的信心。"在公司此前披露其美 国地区三季度销售同比暴增逾1200%之后，海外销售的延续性一直是投资者重点关注的指标。 来源：春城晚报 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，暴跌近10%，股价已从高点回落40%左右，为六周多来最大跌幅。与8月 高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场人士指出，投资者担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中 隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 责任编辑：王维娜 校对：刘娟 原价159元的why so serious系列多款在二手平台上已破发，部分已跌超90元，有的只要60多元。 来源：橙柿互动·都市快报、中国基金报 主编：严云 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China strongly urges Japan to stop disturbing China's normal military training activities [2] - The Chinese government asserts that its military exercises comply with international law and norms, while accusing Japan of provocative actions [2] - Japan's claims of radar illumination by Chinese naval aircraft are dismissed as misleading and an attempt to manipulate international opinion [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce expresses hope for Germany and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association to resolve the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case promptly [3] - Discussions between Chinese and European automotive industry leaders emphasize the deep integration of the automotive sectors [3] - The Chinese government welcomes continued investment from European car manufacturers to promote green and intelligent development in the automotive industry [3] Group 3 - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China discusses economic work for 2026, highlighting the importance of the current year in the modernization process [4] - The meeting emphasizes the stability and progress of China's economy, with significant advancements in various sectors over the past five years [4] - The government aims to achieve major social and economic development goals while enhancing both hard and soft power [4] Group 4 - China's foreign trade data shows a 5.9% increase in exports in November, recovering from a decline in October [5] - The country has achieved over $1 trillion in trade surplus within 11 months, surpassing the record set for 2024 [5] - High-tech products are identified as a key support for the trade growth amid global economic challenges [5] Group 5 - The A-share market's total trading volume exceeds 2 trillion yuan, marking a significant recovery after a period of low trading activity [6] - Several stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, see trading volumes surpassing 20 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [6] - Analysts predict an early spring market rally, with potential investment opportunities in sectors like non-bank finance and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The State Taxation Administration prohibits platforms from shifting tax obligations to gig workers, addressing concerns about increased financial burdens [7] - Enhanced supervision of platforms is promised to ensure compliance with tax regulations and protect gig workers' interests [7] Group 7 - Paramount's bid of $108 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery intensifies competition in the media industry, particularly against Netflix [9][10] - The ongoing bidding war highlights the strategic importance of Warner Bros.' assets, including HBO and DC Comics [10] Group 8 - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped nearly 40% over the past four months, reflecting increasing short-selling activity [11] - The company's market capitalization has decreased by over 180 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating significant investor concern [11] - Short-selling amounts have surged, with a notable increase in the short-selling ratio compared to previous periods [11] Group 9 - The sodium-lithium battery industry is evolving rapidly, with leading companies positioning themselves for growth [46] - The wind turbine industry is experiencing a shift towards deeper integration within the supply chain [46] - The price of silver has doubled this year, with several related stocks showing low valuations [46]

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of the "Childish Economy" as a mainstream emotional consumption trend, where adults engage in playful consumption to counteract real-life uncertainties and achieve emotional satisfaction. The social media volume related to this trend is projected to grow by 26% in 2025 compared to the previous year [1][4][12]. Group 1: Characteristics of the "Childish Economy" - The "Childish Economy" is defined as a psychological compensation mechanism for young people in fast-paced lifestyles, where they consciously consume nostalgic and joyful items to alleviate past regrets and current pressures [7][12]. - Three main consumer groups are identified: - "Circle Followers," primarily Gen Z, who build social identities through symbolic consumption and seek community belonging [4][17]. - "Pressure Experience Seekers," mainly urban white-collar workers and students, who use immersive experiences like building blocks and miniature models for instant stress relief [4][17]. - "Compensatory Healers," typically middle-aged individuals, who consume nostalgic toys and retro snacks to heal childhood emotional gaps [4][17]. Group 2: Social Media Marketing Insights - Social media platforms exhibit distinct characteristics in marketing the "Childish Economy": - Xiaohongshu focuses on community resonance and lifestyle promotion, with strong engagement in narrative and DIY tutorial content [1][4]. - Douyin emphasizes resonant storytelling and immersive content, with unboxing videos and creative short dramas gaining significant traction [1][4]. - Brands leverage IP collaborations, celebrity endorsements, and immersive experiences to connect with consumers, making emotional value and contextual presentation central to marketing strategies [1][4]. Group 3: Popular Product Categories - Popular product categories within the "Childish Economy" include blind boxes, cotton dolls, trendy toys, and stress-relief items, characterized by dopamine-inducing colors, miniaturization, and soft textures [1][11][14]. - Consumers seek emotional values such as surprise, companionship, and healing through these products, with a notable interest in items like electronic pets and nostalgic snacks [11][12][14].

Core Insights - The "Childish Economy" has evolved from fragmented discussions on social media into a significant consumer and cultural trend, characterized by adults consuming childlike products to cope with real-life uncertainties, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in popularity [1][4][12] - This trend is driven by psychological compensation needs among young people in high-pressure, fast-paced lifestyles, focusing on emotional values such as healing, surprise, and companionship [1][4][12] Consumer Segmentation - The core consumer groups are categorized into three types: - "Circle Followers" (44.4%): Primarily Gen Z, they build social identities through symbolic consumption, seeking community recognition [1][4][17] - "Pressure Experience Seekers" (36.2%): Mostly urban white-collar workers and students, they use immersive experiences like building blocks and ASMR for immediate stress relief [1][4][17] - "Compensatory Healers" (19.4%): Mainly middle-aged individuals, they purchase nostalgic toys and retro snacks to fill emotional voids, with AI companionship toys seeing a 564% increase in popularity [1][4][17] Social Media Marketing Insights - Social media platforms exhibit distinct characteristics in marketing the "Childish Economy": - Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) shows a 73.2% increase in commercial ad volume and a 52.2% increase in ad spending, focusing on community resonance and lifestyle presentation [1][4][11] - Douyin (TikTok) has a 36.2% increase in ad volume and a 26.9% increase in spending, with narrative-driven content and immersive ASMR videos being particularly popular [1][4][11] Emotional Value and Product Characteristics - Consumers in the "Childish Economy" seek emotional values such as order, surprise, healing, and nostalgia through their purchases [1][4][13] - Visual characteristics of products include "dopamine colors," miniaturization, and soft textures, which evoke feelings of joy, control, and safety [1][4][14] Popular Product Categories - Key product categories in the "Childish Economy" include blind boxes, cotton dolls, miniature models, and stress-relief toys, which are designed to provide emotional value and immersive experiences [1][4][11][12]

图片来源：Wind 2025年第三季度，泡泡玛特整体收益同比增长245%-250%。具体来看，中国收益同比增长185%-190%， 海外收益同比增长365%-370%，其中亚太同比增长170%-175%；美洲同比增长1265%-1270%；欧洲及其 他地区同比增长735%-740%。同期，泡泡玛特线下渠道收益同比增长130%-135%，线上渠道收益同比增 长300%-305%。 然而，业绩上涨股价却下跌。财报发布当日，泡泡玛特股价报收250.4港元/股，跌幅8.08%，市值一天 内蒸发295.46亿港元，缩水至3362.73亿港元。 国海证券针对泡泡玛特所发布的研报中指出，其多维度运营IP并变现。且产品品类扩张逻辑持续验证， 海外市场表现持续超预期。但需警惕"IP续约不及预期""单一IP依赖"的风险，此外，还包括供应链供货 及质量控制、人力/租金/营销成本增加、市场竞争加剧、估值中枢下移、海外扩张不及预期等。 12月8日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价单日跌幅超8%，创近8个交易日新低。截至收盘，股价报200.4港 元，较8月高位以来跌近40%，市值蒸发逾1600亿港元。 值得注意的是，市场看空情绪持续升温 ...

今天大家都在抠关于"股市"和"楼市"的字眼问题，俺个人把观点再抖一下： 第一，楼市进入了新阶段，方向就是"住好房子"，地产永远会是一个国家的支柱产业之一，毕竟，没有人不想让自己和家人住上更好的房子； 第二，股市也进入了新阶段，方向就是"优质股权投资的大时代"，这背后的本质，是前所未有的低利率时代，叠加净值化转型后，环顾大类资 产，股市总有结构性的板块，在"同类竞品"资产中，更具吸引力。 关于低利率 ，提醒大家一点，从11月26日开始，余额宝的7日年化已经回落到1.01%以内，目前是1.003%，我们属于见证历史中。 当然，在这些趋势下，大家可能还需要关注两点： 其一，财富分化会加速（希望读者们都能勇立潮头）； 其二，优质股权投资的大时代，不代表股市就是45度向上的，事实上，如果没有理性的投资姿势和心态，没有忍受短期波动的能力，无法用3年 以上的周期丈量权益资产的长期回报，那么，任何形态的牛市，都可能会有失意者，尤其是在当下，股市的拔估值阶段，已经"行超半山，船过 中流"之后。 以上，一直是咱们的核心观点，也仅仅是个人观点，不认可也很正常。 ...... 说回今天的市场哈，有几个点。 虽然A股红利是跌的，但比起 ...

泡泡玛特港股盘中一度暴跌9%，为逾一个月最大跌幅，股价承压之际，做空力量持续集聚。据标普全球数据，截至上周四，泡泡玛特的卖空 股份已升至流通股的6.3%，创2023年8月以来最高水平。分析预计，泡泡玛特本季度美国销售增速将放缓至500%以下，此前预测增长 1200%。 光大证券国际策略师Kenny Ng表示，投资者对泡泡玛特销售势头放缓存在担忧，同时卖方的一些谨慎观点也打压了股价。 从增长1200%降至不足500%？美国销售增速或大幅放缓 美国市场表现成为焦点，此前泡泡玛特在三季度财报中披露美国销售同比增长超1200%，令投资者对海外扩张充满期待。 但最新迹象显示增长动能正在减弱。伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股分析师Melinda Hu指出，股价疲软"很可能是受11月份北美线下销售趋势下 滑推动"，她预计公司本季度美国销售增速将放缓至500%以下。 晨星分析师Jeff Zhang警告，潜在的美国销售疲软可能削弱市场对泡泡玛特增长的信心，海外销售势头此前一直是投资者紧密追踪的关键指 标。 泡泡玛特股价周一遭遇重挫，投资者对这家潮玩制造商在美国市场的增长势头产生疑虑。在公司此前公布美国市场超预期增长后，市场正密 切关注 ...

12月8日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）港股盘中股价跌超9%，引发市场关注。截至收盘，泡泡玛特港股报 200.40港元/股，跌8.49%，总市值为2691亿港元，较上个交易日蒸发约250亿港元，股价较8月高点回落 超40%。 | 日期 | 卖空量 卖空额 卖空均价 | | --- | --- | | 305.12万 6.23亿 204.020 | 12-08 | | 161.70万 3.51亿 217.340 | 12-05 | | 155.26万 3.32亿 214.040 | 12-04 | 德银12月1日研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底 月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热 度消退的前兆。 当前，市场看空泡泡玛特的情绪正持续升温。同花顺iFinD数据显示，自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股 数从111.06万股升至305.12万股，卖空金额从2.41亿港元升至6.23亿港元，飙升158%。其中12月8日，泡 泡玛特卖空金额较上一交易日大幅飙升77%，未平仓卖空股数超8400万股。此前，11月21 ...