每经编辑｜陈柯名 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间8月5日，接受了美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访。 图片来源：视觉中国 特朗普表示，他还将在"下周左右"宣布对半导体和芯片征收关税，但未详细说明。 在谈及对欧盟关税问题时，特朗普称，如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。 在谈及对印度关税时，特朗普发出"威胁"，将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关税。 特朗普并没有明确提到对印度的新关税税率。 此前一天，4日，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。因此， 他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。 据多家媒体8月2日报道，尽管美国总统特朗普威胁将对印度购买俄罗斯能源产品等行为实施"惩罚"，印度方面仍然表示，将继续从俄罗斯进口石油。 在采访中，特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席。 他表示已将潜在的未来美联储主席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 特朗普称瑞士靠制药业赚得盆满钵满，将在未来一周内宣布药品关税。药品关税最初将很小，最终将达到250%。 "一年，最多一年半，税率将升至150%，之后将升至2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an underlying net income of $2,400,000,000 for the second quarter and $6,300,000,000 in operating cash flow, which included a $1,400,000,000 build in working capital [8][22] - A dividend per ordinary share of 8.32¢ was announced, marking a 4% increase, alongside a $750,000,000 share buyback program for the third quarter [9][23] - Operating cash flow increased by $3,400,000,000 compared to the previous quarter, reflecting higher earnings and a lower working capital build [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstream production increased by approximately 3% quarter on quarter, averaging 2,300,000 barrels per day for the first half of the year [7] - The gas and low carbon energy segment's underlying financial result was $500,000,000 higher than the previous quarter, while oil production and operations saw a $600,000,000 decrease [17] - The customers and products segment reported an underlying profit increase of around $900,000,000 compared to the previous quarter, driven by seasonally higher volumes and stronger fuel margins [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Refining availability was reported at 96.4% for the second quarter, the best since February 2006, with a first half average of 96.3% [72] - Diesel and gasoline margins are expected to remain tight due to low stock levels relative to historical data, with demand for energy growing at 1% [70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering structural cost reductions of $4,000,000,000 to $5,000,000,000 by 2027, with $1,700,000,000 already achieved [25][28] - A strategic review of the Castrol business is underway, with a focus on optimizing the portfolio and enhancing shareholder value [14][42] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 7% in BPX production through to 2030, targeting 650,000 barrels per day [86] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued growth in upstream operations, supported by recent project startups and exploration discoveries [12][42] - The outlook for trading conditions remains volatile, influenced by OPEC actions and geopolitical factors [46] - The company anticipates slightly lower upstream production in the third quarter, with seasonally higher volumes in customers and a lower level of planned refinery turnaround activity [34] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its divestment program, with expected proceeds from completed or signed agreements now close to $3,000,000,000 [5][22] - The introduction of a new BP refining indicator margin aims to enhance external understanding of refining profitability [37][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for trading optimization in the second half of the year? - Management noted that oil trading performed well in Q2, with a shift to shorter duration trades to manage macro volatility risks [45][57] Question: Can you elaborate on the impairments taken this quarter? - Impairments were taken primarily in the customer and products space, particularly related to hydrogen and biofuels in Australia, and in the gas and low carbon space [60][61] Question: What are the expectations for net debt by the end of the year? - Net debt is expected to trend down slightly towards the end of the year, with a working capital reversal anticipated [64][66] Question: Has the approach to exploration changed? - The exploration strategy remains focused on quality over quantity, with no significant increase in the exploration budget [75] Question: What is the production trajectory for BPX? - BPX is expected to maintain a 7% CAGR through to 2030, with strong production growth anticipated [86]

Core Points - The case involves Li Yong, former Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), who was sentenced to 14 years in prison for bribery and fined 3 million RMB [1][2] - Li Yong was found guilty of accepting bribes totaling over 67.94 million RMB from 1996 to 2023 while holding various senior positions within CNOOC [1] - The court acknowledged Li Yong's cooperation during the investigation, including confessing to his crimes and returning all illicit gains, which contributed to a lighter sentence [2] Company and Industry Summary - Li Yong's actions were characterized by extensive corruption, including collusion with illegal businessmen and engaging in money and sex transactions, which raises concerns about governance within state-owned enterprises in the oil sector [1] - The case highlights the ongoing issues of corruption in China's energy industry, particularly within major state-owned companies like CNOOC, which may impact investor confidence and regulatory scrutiny [1][2] - The legal proceedings and outcomes reflect the Chinese government's commitment to combating corruption, especially in key industries, which could lead to stricter regulations and oversight in the future [2]

金融界8月5日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证香港300上游指数 (H300上游，H30100)报2759.82点。 数据统计显示，中证香港300上游指数近一个月上涨5.69%，近三个月上涨20.98%，年至今上涨 17.15%。 据了解，中证香港300主题指数系列从中证香港300指数样本中根据中证行业分类选取符合相应主题的证 券作为指数样本，反映了在香港交易所上市各主题证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日， 以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（27.7%）、中国石油股份 （12.94%）、紫金矿业（10.99%）、中国神华（9.99%）、中国石油化工股份（8.55%）、中国宏桥 （4.95%）、中煤能源（3.43%）、洛阳钼业（3.09%）、招金矿业（3.03%）、兖矿能源（2.52%）。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比49.54%、煤炭占比16.44%、贵金属占 比15.96%、工业金属占比15.57%、油气开采与油田服务占比1 ...

Core Points - The case involves Li Yong, former Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), who was sentenced to 14 years in prison for accepting bribes totaling over 67.94 million yuan [1] - The court found that from 1996 to 2023, Li Yong used his positions within CNOOC to provide assistance to certain enterprises and individuals in business agency and product sales, in exchange for illegal financial benefits [1] - The court acknowledged Li Yong's cooperation during the investigation, including confessing to his crimes and revealing additional bribery facts, which contributed to a lighter sentence [1] Company and Industry Summary - Li Yong held multiple significant positions within CNOOC, including Director of the Exploration Department, General Manager of the Tianjin Branch, and CEO of CNOOC Services, indicating a high level of influence within the company [1] - The case highlights issues of corruption within state-owned enterprises in China, particularly in the oil and gas sector, which may impact investor confidence and regulatory scrutiny [1] - The court's decision to impose a fine of 3 million yuan in addition to the prison sentence reflects the government's stance on combating corruption in the industry [1]

格隆汇8月5日丨沙特阿美：第二季度营收3788.3亿里亚尔；营业利润1670.9亿里亚尔，低于预估的1804 亿里亚尔；净利润856.3亿里亚尔，低于预估的893.4亿里亚尔；第二季度自由现金流152.3亿美元，同比 下降20%。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心下移，其中 WTI 9月合约收盘下跌 1.04 美元至 66.29 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.91 美元至 68.76 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.31%。SC2509 以 510.2 元/桶收盘，下跌 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 1.28%。OPEC+周日同意将 9 月的石油产量提高 54.7 万 | | | | 桶/日，这是 OPEC+为夺回市场份额而实施的一系列加速增产行 | | | | 动中的最新举措，其理由是经济健康和库存低。此举符合市场预 | | | | 期，并标志着 OPEC+全面提前解除了其最大规模的减产协议，加 | | | | 250 万桶/日，约占全球需求量的 2.4%。 上阿联酋单独增产，合计约 | | | 原油 | 美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅 | 震荡 | | | 大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在 ...

"新能源业务已经由对外开拓闯市场阶段，正式进入项目建设保落地阶段。"辽河油田新能源事业部经理 刘军表示，辽河油田新发绿电项目包括光伏发电和风力发电两类，是油田公司构建"油气+新能源"双轮 驱动格局的重要组成部分。 截至目前，油区首个风力发电项目——沈阳采油厂前进静安堡风力发电工程已经完成施工前期专项评价 和施工图审查，获取国网公司接网批复和中国石油油气和新能源公司设计批复，装机规模达31.25兆 瓦，正在进行施工图升版工作，预计今年8月底正式开工。此外，科尔沁光伏工程主体工程建完；油气 化工厂光伏发电工程完成油田公司初步设计审查；沈阳采油厂、欢喜岭采油厂以及曙光采油厂光伏（一 期）3项工程已全部并网发电，装机容量达到12.8兆瓦，6个项目大幅提升油田公司年发绿电能力。 此外，油区持续加大"走出去"力度，实现"零的突破"。辽河油田建立起"立足辽河、辐射辽宁、延伸京 津冀鲁豫晋等其他区域"的市场布局，紧随国家和辽宁省发改委相关政策导向，加强与属地政府部门联 系，加速推进项目资源普查和手续办理。截至目前，该油田完成盘锦市风力发电、大连市光伏发电以及 抚顺市风力发电3个并网指标竞争性配置工作。 中化新网讯 近日，从中 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell to $65.76 and Brent to $68.28, both down over 2% due to OPEC+ increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day, completing its reduction exit plan a year early, leading to a historical oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Russian oil purchased by India, are seen as ineffective in significantly impacting oil supply, with analysts skeptical about the actual enforcement of sanctions [3] - The oil price is expected to stabilize between $65-$70 in Q3, with a potential drop to $55 in Q4 due to cumulative effects of OPEC production increases and seasonal demand decline [3] Group 2: Copper Market Surge - LME copper prices increased by 0.6% following a tariff exemption from Trump, leading to a surge in inventory in New York by 400,000 tons, while Asian stocks dwindled to a 10-day warning level [4] - A mining accident in Chile has eliminated 25% of a major company's production capacity, contributing to a global copper inventory drop to 350,000 tons, creating a potential short squeeze in the market [4] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to electric vehicles and renewable energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting copper prices to exceed $10,050 per ton by August and a supply gap of 3 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 3: Gold Price Stability - Spot gold prices rose by 0.4%, with futures reaching $3,426, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to disappointing U.S. employment data [5] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 94%, which typically drives investment towards safe-haven assets like gold [5] - The Federal Reserve's internal changes and signals of accelerated rate cuts have reinforced bullish sentiment for gold, with technical support seen at $3,400-$3,450 [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, a strategy is to target upstream oil service companies and refining leaders if prices hit $55 in Q4, capitalizing on equipment upgrades and margin expansion [6] - In copper, focus on resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are less volatile than pure futures trading [7] - For gold, a dollar-cost averaging strategy into gold ETFs and mining stocks is recommended, increasing positions by 3% on price dips before the Fed's rate cut [8]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].