二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 工业硅需求端，下游短期需求增加。多晶硅视角，6-7 月硅料排产或持续提升，整体对工业硅采购有所 起色。有机硅端，本周有机硅周产有所减少，有机硅企业后续复产空间不大，短期对工业硅采购体量边际减 少。事实上，有机硅终端尚未出现起色，消费提振亦有限。铝合金端，进入 6-7 月为铝合金消费淡季，整 体刚需订单，实际交易量未见明显增加。出口市场，出口商近期基本以刚需为主，并未出现囤货现象。 多晶硅供给端，短期周度产量边际提升。市场消息称四川云南、新疆、青海部分工厂复产，此将带来供 应的边际增量。预计 6 月排产 10.3 万吨，7 月排产 11.9 万吨，环比增加 1.6 万吨。库存视角，SMM 统计 本周硅料厂家库存小幅去库，上游库存压力仍处高位，预计报价仍将下调。 工业硅：短期仓单去化较快，但上方空间有限 多晶硅：继续维持空配思路 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面小幅反弹，现货价格维持；多晶硅盘面大幅下行，现货报价亦下移 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面受多晶硅复产超预期 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 工业硅、多晶硅：下行周期，需求为锚 张航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年至今，工业硅、多晶硅盘面价格相较年初已呈现出很大跌幅，但我们认为价格仍未到达底部。目前，双硅均 处于库存高企、成本塌陷以及需求崩塌的格局之下。从 2025 年 4 月份开始，盘面的交易逻辑已更多转向为需求定价， 即需求成色很大程度上决定了盘面的涨跌。此时，成本估值逻辑开始失效，虽上游工厂复产或不减产具备各种各样的原 因，但最直观的解读或许为价格并未跌至真正的成本线位置。站在 6 月中旬的时间点，无论是工业硅还是多晶硅工厂， 均有继续复产的预期，此会给到三季度供应端进一步的边际增量。而此时需求尚未见底，在此情形下出现因短期扰动带 来的反弹将会是很好的做空机会。也即，在需求并未见底的路径之下，价格难言底部，甚至极端行情之中很有可能会击 穿静态现金成本线位置。因此整体来看，在终端需求好转之前，我们对工业硅、多晶硅期货均维持空配的思路。 工业硅供需平衡角度，三季度供需过剩，四季度供需转紧平衡。三季度供需双增，但受限于终端 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term but have limited downside potential as they are already at a low level. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price also remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.61% to 7,470 yuan/ton. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 45 yuan to 630 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Social ordinary warehouses had 13.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons, and social delivery warehouses had 42.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, some northern silicon enterprises reduced production due to cost - price inversion, and southwest producers were hesitant to resume production. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material dropped 2.90% to 33.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material fell 3.08% to 31.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material decreased 4.76% to 30.0 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material declined 3.39% to 28.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price dropped 1.95% to 32,720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side, silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, but some may add new capacity, with an expected slight increase in output. Demand - side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: N - type 210mm decreased 0.79% to 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210R dropped 0.94% to 1.05 yuan/piece, N - type 183mm fell 1.10% to 0.90 yuan/piece, while P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided 182mm, single - sided 210mm, double - sided 182mm, double - sided 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC dropped 1.41% to 10,500 yuan/ton, 107 glue decreased 0.42% to 11,800 yuan/ton, and silicone oil fell 0.37% to 13,600 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting this week focused on "production limitation to maintain prices." Photovoltaic enterprises are expected to cut production more significantly in the third quarter, with the开工 rate expected to drop by 10% - 15%. A strict policy against "below - cost sales" will be implemented, and product sales with sub - standard quality will be rectified [1].

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） 工业硅日报 点评 18 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 33370 元/吨，日内跌幅 2%，持仓 减仓 13008 手至 30435 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨， 最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2130 元 /吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7425 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.1%，持仓 减仓 1130 手至 31.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水收至 130 元/ 吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地，复产陆续推进， 工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并行，大部分厂家大 规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用即采且倾向于低品 混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半月，降库重压下持续 降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量交仓盘面多头挤仓逻 辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" is scheduled to be held from June 24-26 in Leshan, Sichuan Province, with over 200 companies registered and nearly 500 participants expected [1]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference aims to discuss the development of the silicon industry chain in China, highlighting the importance of collaboration among various stakeholders [1]. - A list of participating companies includes major players such as Tongwei Co., Ltd., Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., and JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., indicating strong industry interest [1][2]. Group 2: Participating Companies - Notable companies registered for the conference include: - Tongwei Co., Ltd. - Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd. - JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited - Corning (Shanghai) Management Co., Ltd. [1][2][3]. - The list also features various suppliers, research institutions, and financial firms, showcasing a diverse representation from the silicon industry [2][3][4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The conference is expected to facilitate discussions on technological advancements and sustainable practices within the silicon industry, which is crucial for the growth of the photovoltaic sector [1]. - The participation of financial institutions and investment firms suggests a growing interest in funding and supporting innovations in the silicon industry [5][6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.9万吨，环比有所增加2.60%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长20.59%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库 存为27.5万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为72800 吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为290元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 66.28%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.23万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为568元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为633.38元/吨，再生铝开工 率为53.9%，环比持平，处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, with limited downward space [1] - The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.34% to 7,370 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, resulting in a decrease in overall production [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1] Polysilicon Market - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material was flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 1.85% to 34,320 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacity might be put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output but still within 100,000 tons [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1] Other Market Information - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, passenger car production and sales were 2.313 million and 2.352 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 5.8%, and year - on - year increases of 12.8% and 13.3%. From January to May, production and sales were 11.08 million and 10.996 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.1% and 12.6% [1] - **Organic Silicon Market**: The domestic organic silicon DMC market's trading center continued to decline, and it was expected to decline slightly further. The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil changed, with DMC down 1.83% to 10,750 yuan/ton and 107 glue down 0.41% to 12,050 yuan/ton [1] - **New Energy Industry**: From January to May, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% respectively. The power generation of wind and solar energy in large - scale industries increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market shows signs of slight recovery, with prices rebounding after reaching a low point, but downstream purchasing remains cautious, focusing on demand-based procurement [1][2]. Supply Side - Major northern manufacturers are steadily advancing their resumption plans, and with the onset of the flood season, some silicon plants in the southwest are also resuming operations, leading to an overall increase in production [1]. - New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, contributing to increased supply [1]. Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants has increased, but there is some inventory pressure, leading downstream to primarily engage in small-scale replenishment, resulting in a downward shift in overall transaction focus [1]. - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, which means limited changes in demand for industrial silicon [1]. - Aluminum alloy companies are maintaining stable production and purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to a slight overall increase in demand [1]. Cost Analysis - With the arrival of the flood season, electricity prices in the southwest have decreased, leading to a reduction in costs and further weakening cost support [1]. - Industrial silicon inventory remains high (over 900,000 tons), exerting significant pressure on industrial silicon prices [1]. Price Outlook - Although costs in the south are decreasing and lower cost support is weakening, current prices are already below cost, indicating limited space for further declines [2]. - While demand is increasing, supply is also rising, which limits the price support from demand increases, leading to expectations of price stability within a bottom range in the short term [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 宏观情绪影响消退，工业硅偏弱运行回归基本面 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-12，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7500元/吨，最后收于7455元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-20） 元/吨，变化（-0.27）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓121504手，2025-06-12仓单总数为58372手，较前一日变化 -302手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计6月12日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计57.2万吨，较上周环比减少1.5万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.3万吨， 较上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库43.9万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少1.3万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周山东单体企业线上商城DMC开 盘报价11000元/吨，竞价成交价格跌破11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot price remains stable, with a recent increase in the main contract price by 5.96% from 7135 CNY/ton to 7560 CNY/ton, indicating a slight market recovery despite cautious downstream purchasing behavior [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply has increased due to the onset of the flood season, with some silicon factories in the south resuming production alongside new capacity coming online and previously halted production restarting [1] - Demand from downstream sectors shows a slight increase, with organic silicon monomer plants operating at high levels, maintaining stable demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon plants have stable operations, and aluminum alloy plants are purchasing based on demand [1] - Overall demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon has increased [1] Price Dynamics - The market for organic silicon monomer plants is well-supplied with sufficient inventory, but weak downstream demand is causing price pressure, leading to a downward shift in price levels; polysilicon spot prices have also declined [1] - Recent inflows of industrial silicon warehouse receipts have led to a slight decrease in inventory, but overall inventory levels remain high, exerting pressure on the spot market [1] - With the reduction in electricity prices during the flood season in the south, cost support has weakened further; however, current prices are below production costs, limiting further downside potential, and prices are expected to remain within a bottom range of fluctuation [1]