Group 1 - The international and domestic gold markets are experiencing a high-level correction, with international spot gold prices slightly declining and domestic base gold prices weakening, while retail gold jewelry prices remain high, indicating a significant price gap among brands [1][2] - As of January 14, 2026, international spot gold prices have dropped to approximately $4587.3 per ounce, leading to a corresponding adjustment in domestic market prices, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot gold price at 1025 yuan per gram [2] - Retail gold jewelry prices show a notable premium, with mainstream brand prices ranging from 1180 yuan per gram to 1432 yuan per gram, reflecting a delayed price transmission from the original gold prices [2] Group 2 - The domestic gold futures market is on the rise, with the main contract price reported at 1027.4 yuan per gram, indicating that domestic investors still have positive expectations for future gold prices [3] - The international precious metals market shows mixed results, with spot gold at $4595.51 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.05%, while silver prices have increased by 0.37% to $85.47 per ounce [4] - Gold ETFs are experiencing net inflows, with significant growth in fund shares, reflecting strong medium to long-term allocation demand, and some funds have adjusted their subscription rules to manage market volatility [4] Group 3 - The core logic driving the medium to long-term trend of gold prices is evolving, with central banks' substantial gold purchases providing a solid underlying support, driven by a long-term strategy for diversifying foreign exchange reserve assets [5] - The geopolitical conflicts and rising global debt levels are reinforcing gold's status as the "ultimate safe-haven asset," while the increasing variety of gold-related derivatives and investment channels allows more capital to participate in gold investments [5] Group 4 - In a volatile market, both consumers and investors need clearer strategies; consumers should focus on promotional activities and choose transparent pricing for gold products, while investors should clarify their investment objectives and consider low-cost channels for gradual investment [7] - It is essential to recognize that gold does not inherently generate cash flow, and returns depend entirely on price fluctuations; maintaining a reasonable proportion of gold in personal asset portfolios is crucial [7] - The ongoing narrative of the gold market will continue to be influenced by the trajectory of the dollar's credibility, central bank policies, and unpredictable geopolitical events, making understanding the underlying logic more important than merely following price trends [7]

近日，在郑州市金多银多珠宝广场的中国黄金品牌店，销售店长刘青告诉大象新闻记者，有准备结婚的 小情侣在2025年初的时候，来看结婚"三金"，店员给算了总价是3万多元，两人判断金价可能会下调， 就说先等等，结果金价一路走高，临近年底结婚两人再来时，同样克重的金饰，价格已经变成了6万多 元。 对此刘青也笑称："劝大家买金要趁早，金子涨了你是赢家，金子跌了还在你家。" 金价遇到历史级"飞天"行情，让众多消费者有人欢喜有人愁。 近期以来，金价持续冲高，黄金销售端和回收端呈现有趣的"双向奔赴"态势，一边是投资黄金销售火 爆，一边是黄金回收数量大增。不同的消费者，因购金时间的不同，投出了不同的"金价选票"。 来源：大象新闻 ...

中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数覆盖沪深港三地黄金产业龙头，聚焦金矿采选、冶炼加工、珠宝销售等全 产业链，在行业上行周期中可充分捕捉黄金企业业绩与估值双击的投资机遇，具备较强的板块代表性和 配置价值。建议持续积极关注金ETF南方(159834.SZ)与南方中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(A类： 021958，C类：021959)的中长期配置机遇。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 上海证券认为黄金长期避险和投资优势凸显，美联储降息预期持续、贸易摩擦扰动下，黄金珠宝需求预 计增长。古法金与IP金饰引领潮流，行业消费逻辑重构，悦己消费崛起、轻量化与投资需求分流。2026 年开年金价受地缘政治冲突升级、美联储降息预期、美元走弱、央行持续购金等因素推动上涨。 国盛证券认为，黄金珠宝行业春节旺季行情值得期待，存在估值切换机遇。历年1-2月数据显示，除 2024年外，2021-25年金银珠宝增速均高于限额以上商品零售增速，旺季消费弹性较优。2026年春节景 气有望延续，头部品牌凭借更强产品力与运营力，以及"高端化""硬奢侈品"消费者心智，能更好把握旺 季消费窗口与国内高端消费回暖机遇。行业升级背景下，运营能力强的留存加盟商/店铺 ...

东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-15 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260114：扰动结束后，美国 Q1 通胀料将反弹——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 核心观点：2025 年 12 月美国总体 CPI 持平预期，核心 CPI 不及预期， 从分项看，后者主要来自二手车价格下跌、电信商价格战对相关商品和服 务价格的拖累、季节性因子，这三者更多是短期扰动，我们预计其给通胀 的负面影响难以持续，大类资产也因此部分回吐数据发布之时的宽货币 交易。向前看 26Q1，需要关注在财政与货币的短期宽松脉冲与季节性因 素影响下，美国增长与通胀数据超预期偏强的风险，这将进一步压缩近期 已有所回吐的 3/4 月降息预期。 固收金工 证券研究报告 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260114：债市逆风中的生存法则：历史调整对当前的启 示 回溯 2016–2018 年债市，可以看到当时的利率变化顺序是政策收紧，先 推动短端利率显著上行，之后在经济韧性支撑下长端利率跟随上行，熊市 的主导力量是政策端。对比当下环境，情况有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in net profit for China Gold is attributed to changes in market conditions and fluctuations in operating costs, reflecting cyclical pressures in the industry [1] Group 1: Performance Summary - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease by over 50% year-on-year, with a substantial drop in net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] - The decline is primarily due to high international gold prices in 2025, which have suppressed consumer demand, particularly for heavier gold jewelry, leading to reduced foot traffic in retail stores and impacting revenue [1] - New tax policies on gold transactions have increased tax costs for jewelry products, further affecting consumer spending and profit margins [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The challenges faced by China Gold are common across the gold jewelry industry, with many peers experiencing varying degrees of performance decline due to high gold prices and policy adjustments [2] - The company is implementing long-term strategies to address these challenges, including optimizing product structure to increase the proportion of high-value products, refining sales channels by closing underperforming stores, and expanding into overseas markets [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the long-term development logic for China Gold remains clear, with potential stabilization in gold prices expected to restore consumer demand [2] - Government policies aimed at upgrading the consumer goods sector, including the gold jewelry industry, provide a favorable environment for leading companies [2] - Continuous investment in product innovation, channel optimization, and international expansion is anticipated to strengthen the company's long-term competitiveness and facilitate future performance recovery [2][3]

Core Insights - The prices of gold and silver have been rising significantly since last year, leading to increased public interest and investment in these precious metals [1][2] - Despite the overall market interest, retail sales of gold jewelry and bars have seen a decline due to high prices, with many consumers opting for investment in gold bars instead of jewelry [1][2] - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for gold, with predictions of prices reaching as high as $5000 per ounce by 2026 [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures hitting $4647.6 per ounce and silver futures reaching $91.37 per ounce, marking increases of over 3.5% [2] - Retail gold shops are experiencing lower foot traffic, with promotional activities in place to attract customers, but many consumers are deterred by high prices [1][2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest that gold still holds value for investment, but caution against buying at peak prices; they recommend waiting for price corrections to invest in physical gold or ETFs [4] - The current geopolitical tensions and changes in international relations are expected to support the long-term rise in precious metal prices, encouraging investors to consider accumulating gold during price dips [4]

Group 1 - The price of gold and silver has been rising significantly since last year, leading to increased consumer interest and investment in these precious metals [1][2] - Retail demand for gold jewelry and bars has decreased recently due to high prices, with many stores offering discounts to attract customers [1][2] - Despite the decline in retail activity, industry insiders remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for precious metals, with many investors holding gold assets and seeing good returns [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce by the second half of 2026, with varying forecasts from different financial institutions [4] - Current geopolitical tensions and changes in international relations are expected to support the long-term rise in precious metal prices [5] - Investment strategies suggest that ordinary investors should consider accumulating gold and silver through low-risk products like bank gold accumulation plans or ETFs, while being cautious about speculative trading [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations [5][6] - Energy inflation has significantly decreased, with December energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November [7] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue declining due to high base effects in early 2025, although potential rebound pressures may arise from fiscal policies and economic support measures [8][9] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Poly Developments (600048.SH) has adjusted its headquarters structure to enhance management efficiency, maintaining its leading position in the industry [26][30] - The company reported a total sales amount of 121.6 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, but it remains the top seller in the industry [28] - The company’s land acquisition in major cities accounted for over 85% of its total, with a total land acquisition amount of 771.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year increase [29] Group 3: Media and Entertainment Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) saw its game "Heart Town" achieve over 500 million downloads shortly after its international launch, indicating strong performance and potential for future revenue growth [32][33] - The company plans to leverage partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance user engagement and revenue streams, particularly during peak seasons [32][34] Group 4: Retail Sector - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175%, driven by brand enhancement and market expansion [36][37] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in new store openings [37]

Group 1: Gold Market Prices - On January 13, 2026, international gold prices continued a strong trend, with spot prices reaching $4576.3 per ounce, influenced by exchange rates and supply-demand factors. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot benchmark price was 1021.8 yuan per gram, while the main futures contract closed at 1025 yuan per gram. Retail prices varied significantly, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook quoting between 1404 to 1426 yuan per gram, while bank investment gold bars were priced between 1020 to 1037 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of up to 400 yuan per gram [2][3] Group 2: Core Drivers of Gold Price Fluctuations - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking historical highs, is driven by three main factors: ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, which has reignited risk-averse sentiment, highlighting gold's status as a "hard currency" [4] - The macro monetary environment is shifting, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, leading to a weaker dollar index that directly boosts gold prices. Global central bank gold purchases have become a long-term support, with global purchases exceeding 1000 tons in 2024, and the People's Bank of China continuously increasing its holdings, providing a solid foundation for gold prices. Despite a 65% increase in gold prices in 2025, inflation hedging and currency depreciation will continue to dominate trends in 2026 [5] Group 3: Investment Channel Comparisons - For investors, the choice of investment channel is crucial. While jewelry from gold stores has aesthetic and wearable value, high processing fees and brand premiums significantly diminish its investment attributes, as it can only be redeemed at the original gold price [5] - Bank gold bars (such as ICBC's "Ruyi Gold Bar" and CCB's "Long Ding Gold") and standard gold ingots from exchanges are more suitable for asset allocation, offering lower premiums and higher liquidity [6] - Gold ETFs and "accumulated gold" services provide convenient options for investors who prefer not to take physical delivery, allowing for trading through securities accounts or bank investment systems, effectively averaging holding costs [7] Group 4: Precious Metal Recovery and Valuation - The pricing mechanism for precious metal recovery channels requires attention. Currently, the recovery price for high-purity gold (99.9% and above) is approximately 988 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of about 30-40 yuan per gram compared to retail prices, which includes refining costs and channel profits. The recovery pricing for K-gold and platinum group metals is more complex, with recovery prices for 18K gold and 999 platinum at 718 yuan per gram and 487 yuan per gram, respectively, strictly based on metal purity [8] Group 5: 2026 Investment Strategies and Outlook - Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise amid fluctuations, with some institutions predicting a potential breakthrough of $5000 per ounce. Technically, the $4400-$4500 range serves as strong support, and if this range is maintained, upward potential will be opened [10] - For ordinary investors, a "core-satellite" strategy is recommended, using bank physical gold bars or accumulated gold as the core holding (approximately 20% allocation) to hedge against long-term inflation, while utilizing gold ETFs to capture short-term volatility gains. High volatility is a double-edged sword, and caution is advised when chasing highs; utilizing pullbacks for phased entry is a more optimal solution. Ultimately, gold should serve as a stabilizer in asset portfolios, with its true value lying in countering currency credit crises and preserving long-term wealth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is facing challenges due to rising gold prices, prompting companies to adopt differentiated development strategies to address high costs [1]. Group 1: Company Strategy - China Gold has established a "three-pronged" strategic goal focusing on "internationalization, technological innovation, and specialization" to reshape the gold jewelry industry [1]. - The company aims to integrate traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics, creating a competitive edge through cultural empowerment and brand leadership [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company is embracing artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance traditional gold jewelry design, responding to government initiatives to implement "AI+" actions [2]. - In collaboration with Tsinghua University, China Gold developed the "Xunli" gold jewelry generation model to innovate product design and merge traditional cultural elements with modern techniques [2][3]. Group 3: Product and Brand Development - China Gold is focusing on cultural themes in its product offerings, launching series like "Chengfu Gold" and "Guobao Gold" to enhance cultural and artistic value [2]. - The company has completed a brand renewal plan and established a new image system, positioning itself as the "chief expressor of Chinese cultural gold" [7]. Group 4: Channel Optimization - China Gold is shifting from a broad "store opening competition" model to a refined operational strategy, optimizing store layouts and enhancing terminal control [6]. - The company is developing a closed-loop ecosystem through its official app, integrating online purchases with offline services [7]. Group 5: International Expansion - China Gold is actively pursuing internationalization, aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative and focusing on markets in Hong Kong, ASEAN, and the Middle East [9][10]. - The partnership with China Duty Free Group aims to leverage a global network of duty-free stores, enhancing brand visibility and sales channels [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, China Gold plans to enhance its international competitiveness and brand influence by focusing on technological, international, and professional development [11].