11月11日早盘，现货黄金持续拉升，截至发稿报4040.260美元/盎司，日内涨0.61%；COMEX黄金涨0.45%，报4140.4 美元/盎司。 11月11日，国内黄金饰品价格对比显示，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价格较昨日明显上涨，周生生克价为1308元，周大福克价为1308元，老庙 黄金上海区域克价为1310元，老凤祥克价为1310元，六福珠宝克价为1277元。 来源 | 第一财经编发 | 潇雨一审 | 潇雨；二审 | 吴涛；三审 | 汪源版权归原作者所有 如有侵权请联系我们 安徽生活频率运营中心 FM92.9 FM107.4 周一纽约尾盘， 现货黄金大涨2.85%，收报4115美元附近，这是自10月23日以来的最高收盘价。当天， COMEX黄金期货涨2.76%，报4120.60美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax policy changes regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration significantly alter the existing tax framework, impacting both investment and non-investment gold businesses in China [1][4]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy modifies the "immediate collection and refund" exemption that has been in place for 23 years at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, now favoring only trading members for investment gold tax benefits, while non-members face a tax increase of around 7% [4]. - The first week of the new policy saw a decrease in customer traffic and a decline in recovery business in key markets like Shui Bei, indicating a period of adjustment for pricing and market adaptation [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Response and Adaptation - Representatives from various retail brands and gold processing sectors discussed the immediate impacts of the new tax policy, highlighting the need for compliance and the potential reshaping of the competitive landscape due to differing tax costs between member and non-member entities [3][4]. - Companies are encouraged to integrate the new tax policy into their strategic planning, focusing on compliance and exploring new market opportunities through channel partnerships and product innovation [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The tax increase has led to adjustments in retail pricing, with price differences between mainland and Hong Kong/Macau gold prices widening to approximately 12%, prompting some consumers to shift their purchasing behavior [6]. - There is a consensus among industry representatives that the new tax policy serves as a means for the government to regulate the industry and promote high-quality development, with a focus on innovation and cultural value in products [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][58]. Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a low-level recovery with significant differentiation among individual stocks. The overall growth rate for the industry has shown a slight decline in the third quarter, with retail sales in the first nine months of 2025 reaching 365,877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1][13]. - The beauty and personal care sector is facing pressure on profitability due to changes in e-commerce platform rules and a lack of innovative products. The gold and jewelry sector is performing well, driven by stable sales of fixed-price products. The cross-border e-commerce sector is showing positive growth, while offline retail continues to face challenges [2][34][42]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The retail sector's growth has been relatively stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in retail sales for the first nine months of 2025. The growth rate has declined in the second half of the year due to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and the tapering of stimulus policies [1][13]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector's sales reached 328.82 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, growing by 3.9% year-on-year. However, profitability has been under pressure due to weak product launches and changes in promotional strategies [22][28]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 11.5% in retail sales, totaling 276.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. The sector benefits from a low base from the previous year and rising gold prices, although profitability has faced challenges [34][41]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce has shown a stable growth trajectory, with a total import and export value of approximately 2.06 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The sector's revenue grew by 15.15% in Q3 2025, driven by strong operational resilience among leading companies [42][48]. Offline Retail - The offline retail sector remains under pressure, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.5% in retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025. The overall revenue for the offline retail sector declined by 15.9% in Q3 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [50][54].

Core Insights - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge on November 11, with spot gold prices surpassing $4130 per ounce and New York futures crossing $4140 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.55% and 0.51% respectively [1][2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices rose sharply, with some brands exceeding 1300 yuan per gram, influenced by the international gold price movements [1] - The Shanghai gold futures price increased by 2.83%, reaching a new high of 950 yuan per gram, while silver futures rose nearly 4%, surpassing 11960 yuan per kilogram [1] International Precious Metals Prices - As of November 11, international gold was priced at $4132.66 per ounce, silver at $50.81 per ounce, platinum at $1579.05 per ounce, and palladium at $1435.69 per ounce [2] Domestic Brand Gold Prices - Major domestic brands reported the following gold prices on November 11: - Chow Tai Fook: 1308.00 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 1310.00 yuan/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1308.00 yuan/gram - Others ranged from 1265.00 to 1310.00 yuan/gram [3] Bank Gold Bar Prices - The latest prices for bank gold bars were as follows: - Construction Bank: 964.70 yuan/gram - Bank of China: 963.56 yuan/gram - Agricultural Bank: 976.85 yuan/gram - Other banks had prices ranging from 963.60 to 1072.00 yuan/gram [4] Precious Metals Recycling Prices - Current recycling prices for precious metals are: - Gold: 939.00 yuan/gram - Silver: 10.88 yuan/gram - Platinum: 349.00 yuan/gram - Palladium: 306.00 yuan/gram [5] Hong Kong Gold Prices - In Hong Kong, gold prices were reported as follows: - General gold: 38431.92 HKD/two - Chow Tai Fook gold jewelry: 45780.00 HKD/two - Chow Tai Fook gold bars: 41300.00 HKD/two [6]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased, with most brands raising prices by nearly 30 CNY per gram [1] - As of November 11, 2023, the gold price per gram for various brands is as follows: Chow Sang Sang at 1308 CNY, Chow Tai Fook at 1308 CNY, Lao Miao Gold at 1310 CNY, Lao Feng Xiang at 1310 CNY, and Liufuk Jewelry at 1277 CNY [1] Group 2 - Since September, spot gold prices have risen sharply, reaching a peak of 4380 USD per ounce on October 20, 2023, followed by a significant drop [3] - On October 21, 2023, spot gold experienced a drop of 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [3] - By October 28, 2023, spot gold fell to a low of 3886 USD per ounce before starting to recover [3] Group 3 - On November 3, 2023, international gold prices rebounded above 4000 USD, and by November 10, gold futures and spot prices continued to rise [4] - As of November 11, 2023, spot gold was reported at 4136.26 USD per ounce, with COMEX futures at 4146 USD per ounce, both showing increases [6] Group 4 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold investment demand reached 537 tons in Q3 2023, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total demand [6] - Total global gold demand in Q3 2023 was 1313 tons, with a total value of 1460 billion USD, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [6] Group 5 - The China Gold Association noted a significant decline in gold jewelry consumption, down 32.50% year-on-year to 270.036 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase [7] - The demand for gold bars remains strong due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability, enhancing gold's role as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 6 - Domestic gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 was 392.931 tons, a 3.60% increase year-on-year, with both domestic and imported raw gold contributing to this growth [7] - Various institutions predict a long-term upward trend in gold prices, with Standard Chartered raising its 2026 average price forecast to 4488 USD, and Goldman Sachs increasing its Q1 2026 target to 4440 USD and Q4 target to 5055 USD [7]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, with spot gold surpassing $4,140, reflecting a weekly increase of over 3% [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold surged by 2.85%, closing around $4,115, marking the highest closing price since October 23 [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.76%, reaching $4,120.60 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Chow Sang Sang's price rising to ¥1,308 per gram from ¥1,276, an increase of ¥32 per gram [3] - Lao Feng Xiang's gold jewelry price increased to ¥1,310 per gram from ¥1,273, a rise of ¥37 per gram [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [10] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks accelerated gold purchases in Q3, with a net purchase of 220 tons, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year increase [10] - In the first three quarters, global central banks' net gold purchases totaled 634 tons, significantly above the average levels prior to 2022 [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Amid deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and rising global tensions, central banks are increasingly accumulating gold, enhancing its perception as a safe-haven asset [11] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may maintain high volatility in the short term, but the underlying support for mid-term price increases remains intact due to rising uncertainties and global "de-dollarization" trends [11] - Predictions indicate that gold may continue its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate [11]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced a slight pullback after an initial rise, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) declining nearly 0.5% [1] - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded on November 10, highlighting the ongoing momentum of cross-border e-commerce and the influx of quality overseas brands into the Chinese market [1] - The consumer market in China is transitioning from a recovery in quantity to an upgrade in quality, driven by channel innovation, diversified demand, and improved commercial ecosystems [1] Group 2 - The new gold tax policy is expected to drive market share towards leading brands in the medium to long term, as it aims to regulate previous non-compliant tax practices in the industry [1] - Companies with differentiated product offerings and strong operational capabilities, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook, are likely to benefit from this policy [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of sectors including new consumption leaders and internet e-commerce giants [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw explosive growth in online consumption of gold and jewelry, with Tmall's gold vouchers selling out instantly and IP collaboration jewelry products frequently sold out, indicating a shift in consumer behavior with the post-95 generation becoming a significant force in gold purchases [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - During the "Double Eleven" period, the stock price of Zhou Li Fu (06168.HK) surged over 20%, rising from HKD 42.12 to HKD 51.20, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's consumption potential [2] - The stock's performance significantly outpaced the Hang Seng Index, which only increased by 3.06% during the same period, highlighting Zhou Li Fu's strong alpha performance [2] Group 2: Online Sales and Product Popularity - Zhou Li Fu's 5D hard gold pendants topped the gold sales rankings on Tmall during the "Double Eleven" event, with overall gold category sales increasing by 68% year-on-year within the first hour of the event [3] - The company's focus on lightweight gold products and IP collaboration series has resonated well with younger consumers, with over 60% of online exclusive products driving significant revenue growth [3][4] Group 3: Revenue Growth and Brand Strategy - In the first half of 2025, Zhou Li Fu's online channel revenue reached CNY 1.63 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, marking the first time online revenue surpassed 50% of total revenue [4] - The company has established a diversified brand ecosystem, including a main brand targeting the mass market and sub-brands like "CHAOJIN" focusing on trendy designs for the Z generation, which enhances its market reach [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts project that the Chinese jewelry market will reach CNY 937 billion by 2029, with significant room for concentration as the current CR5 stands at only 41% [5] - Zhou Li Fu is expected to continue capturing market share due to its supply chain advantages, early positioning in online channels, and differentiated brand strategy, with projected EPS of CNY 1.82, 1.97, and 2.18 for 2025-2027 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by favorable policies, rising CPI, and the imminent closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, leading to increased investment enthusiasm in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is believed to be at the bottom, with fundamentals gradually improving, as indicated by the third-quarter reports [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of consumption, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. - Key investment opportunities include the restaurant chain sector, which is nearing the end of price wars, and companies like Anjiexin Foods and Lihai Foods are seeing improved net profit margins [4]. Group 2: Duty-Free Industry Insights - Hainan's duty-free sales data shows a significant recovery in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in average transaction value, and a stable outlook for Q4 [5]. - Continuous policy support, including a clear timeline for the island's closure and an expanded range of duty-free products, is expected to enhance the operational conditions for companies like China Duty Free Group and Hainan Development [5]. Group 3: Structural Upgrades in Consumption - The toy industry is evolving with IP incubation and category innovation, favoring leading companies with strong design and supply chain capabilities [6]. - The beauty industry is integrating medical, beauty, and health services, which is expected to enhance customer spending and repeat purchases [6]. - The consumer industry is transitioning from "functional supply" to "scenario value supply," indicating a structural upgrade in brand consumer goods [6]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - Four new consumption themes are emerging: 1. Brand globalization 2.0, focusing on pricing power and emerging markets [7]. 2. Emotional value sectors like trendy toys and pet products are expected to benefit from rising GDP per capita [7]. 3. AI-driven consumption in service sectors is showing potential for profitability [7]. 4. Channel transformation emphasizing user experience and operational efficiency, particularly in instant retail and cost-effective dining [7]. Group 5: High-Growth Opportunities in Emotional Consumption - The gold and jewelry sector is undergoing significant changes, with rising gold prices and a shift towards emotional consumption, suggesting opportunities in high-end and trendy gold segments [8]. - Retail e-commerce is focusing on offline retail transformation and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders [8]. - The cosmetics sector is seeing growth in domestic brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovation [8]. - The medical beauty sector remains resilient, with opportunities in differentiated products and mergers in downstream medical beauty institutions [8].

Core Insights - The rise of live streaming hosts in traditional wholesale markets is transforming the retail landscape ahead of the "Double 11" shopping festival [1] Group 1: Gold and Jewelry Market - In the Shui Bei gold market, live streamers are showcasing various gold products, with a focus on gold foil crafts and creative products that contain minimal gold, making them suitable for impulse purchases [2] - The increasing international gold prices have made gold-related products a highlight for this year's "Double 11" online shopping event [2] Group 2: Electronics Market - The Huaqiangbei electronics market is experiencing a surge in live streaming, particularly for entertainment electronics like karaoke equipment and gaming peripherals, allowing consumers nationwide to access affordable products [3] - Foreign buyers, including those from India, are attracted to Huaqiangbei due to its significant price advantages [3] Group 3: Fashion and Apparel Market - The Nanyou clothing market has developed a comprehensive live streaming ecosystem, where clothing is designed, produced, and sold within the same building, significantly reducing the distance from factory to consumer [4] - The transformation of old factories into live streaming hubs is being replicated in various locations, enhancing the efficiency of the retail process [5] Group 4: Industry Growth Factors - The robust development of the live streaming e-commerce industry in Shenzhen is attributed to its strong manufacturing base, complete supply chain, and an innovative entrepreneurial environment [5] - Events like "Double 11" are driving the growth of live streaming sales, injecting new vitality into traditional commerce [5]