研究早观点 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,516.83 | 0.37 | | 深证成指 | | 10,873.62 | 1.43 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,034.49 | 0.68 | | 中小板指 | | 6,771.93 | 1.77 | | 创业板指 | | 2,269.33 | 1.75 代，半导体、具身智能等持续突破 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,005.65 | 0.80 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250707-20250713）-——Grok4、KIMI K2 发布，算力板块业绩预告亮眼 【行业评论】生物医药Ⅱ：创新药动态更新：PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 三抗 CS2009：剂量爬坡耐受性良好，冷肿瘤及 PD-(L)1 经治患者中观察到抗肿 瘤活性 【行业评论】煤 ...

Group 1 - A-shares showed positive performance on July 17, with trading volume exceeding 15,100 and average stock prices rising, indicating potential upward momentum, although there is uncertainty about reaching the previous high of 3,555.22 points [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index had a smaller increase but has shown signs of recovery; if it accelerates upward, it could indicate effective sector rotation, though this does not guarantee sustained strength in the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The banking sector has experienced consecutive declines, and if it rebounds, the index may rise directly; however, there is currently no significant indication of a major adjustment in the index [1] Group 2 - Recent strength in sectors such as CPUs and optical communication modules is expected to enter a consolidation phase soon, while innovative pharmaceuticals and medical sectors have shown strong performance, but their sustainability is in question [1] - The photovoltaic sector had performed well recently, and there are signs of strength in battery, new energy, and automotive parts sectors; however, the index is not expected to rise significantly, maintaining a rotational pattern with short-term uncertainty [2] - The current market presents numerous opportunities, and maintaining a certain level of position is advised to avoid being caught off guard by potential upward acceleration in the index [2]

创新药研发，向来被称为人类科学探索的"珠峰之旅"。 这条从早期研发到上市的通关之路，需跨越临床前研究（3—5年）、I/II/III期临床试验（6 — 7年）及1 — 2年 审批的"三重门"，耗时8 — 10年、烧钱超数十亿美元，却仍面临九死一生的残酷淘汰率。 更棘手的是，它还面临五大核心挑战：靶点与药理的不确定性随时可能颠覆前期成果，长周期与高投入让研发 进度滞后或资金链断裂成为致命隐患，严苛的监管审批在每一个细节之处都可能让前期投入付诸东流，行业地 位决定了最终的利润蛋糕分配，而上市后也可能被更优新药快速挤压市场空间。 如果说半导体研发是在原子上"雕刻未来"，创新药研发就是在生物黑箱中"大海捞针"。 回顾中国创新药发展的历程，新中国成立初期可谓"一穷二白"，彼时我们的医药工业基础薄弱，药品主要依赖 进口，尤其是抗生素、疫苗等，农村甚至依赖传统草药。新中国成立后，国家将医药工业纳入战略规划， 以"保障基本医疗需求"为核心，开启了仿制药工业化生产的序幕。在这一时期，我们以仿制国外成熟品种为 主，原创性药物几乎空白，技术研发能力薄弱。 改革开放后，医药行业逐步市场化，并开始与国际接轨。外资药企带着技术和新药进入中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent public fund reports reveal that high-performing funds have achieved impressive returns by focusing on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption, while also highlighting a trend towards thematic funds targeting niche markets [1][2][5]. Fund Performance and Holdings - High-performing funds have seen significant returns, with the Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Fund achieving a return rate of 102.52% this year, driven primarily by its focus on innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - Many top-performing funds in the first half of the year are pharmaceutical-themed, including Zhongyin Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Huashan Pharmaceutical Biotechnology [2][3]. - The top holdings of several funds have shifted towards technology and pharmaceuticals, with notable new additions like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xin Yisheng in the top ten holdings of the China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Fund [3]. Thematic Funds and Sector Focus - Some actively managed funds have undergone significant portfolio changes, with a complete overhaul of their top holdings to focus on emerging sectors like robotics and short dramas [4]. - The Tongtai Industry Upgrade Mixed Fund increased its stock position from 30% to 90% and shifted its focus to robotics, while the Tongtai Huile Mixed Fund transitioned to short drama and gaming stocks [4]. - Fund companies are launching numerous thematic products targeting specific high-growth sectors, such as controllable nuclear fusion and deep-sea technology, indicating a trend towards specialized investment strategies [5]. Market Outlook - Fund managers maintain a positive outlook for the equity market in the third quarter, with confidence in the performance of related sectors [6]. - The Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Fund manager anticipates growth in innovative pharmaceuticals driven by overseas licensing and domestic sales, while the Tongtai Industry Upgrade Fund manager expects significant opportunities in the robotics sector due to increased production and technological advancements [6].

今年上半年，各类市场热点层出不穷，影视、人工智能、机器人、创新药、银行等板块都曾上演一番强 势行情。展望下半年行情，机构投资者将如何应对？日前，榕树投资董事长翟敬勇在接受中国证券报记 者专访时表示，无论行情如何变化，"选择便宜的资产"始终是其投资的核心逻辑，但在评估是否便宜的 同时，也需要观察产业趋势，现在更偏好于投资景气产业里的便宜资产。下半年依然看好新能源、半导 体、人形机器人等产业的投资机会，特别是人形机器人产业未来有望诞生多家优秀龙头企业。 区分产业趋势 "历史的车轮从不会为守旧者停留，也不会因为你老了而停下来等你。"翟敬勇感慨地说，近年来，他愈 发感受到及时更新信息和认知，关注创新浪潮的重要性。时代发展和产业创新的势头浩浩荡荡，有时候 一个行业的变迁可能在不经意间就悄然到来，只有保持不断学习的态度，才能不被时代所抛弃，并及时 抓住机遇。 这是他近年来投资策略中的"变"，而持续不变的是价值投资理念的核心，那就是选择那些暂时被市场低 估的便宜资产。只不过，在选择便宜资产时，还需要区分产业趋势，去选择景气度上行的朝阳产 ● 本报记者 张韵 业。"夕阳产业里的资产再便宜，也不会去投资。"翟敬勇认为，投身产业 ...

PCB板块指数日K线图 范雨露 制图 ◎记者 徐蔚 7月17日，A股市场出现强劲回升的态势。其中，红利低波主线有所休整，但得益于算力硬件、创新药 等新质生产力主线的持续活跃，上证指数稳步前行，深证成指、创业板指均涨超1%。 截至收盘，上证指数涨0.37%，报3516.83点；深证成指涨1.43%，报10873.62点；创业板指涨1.75%，报 2269.33点。沪深北三市合计成交15602亿元，较上日放量985亿元，全市场超3500只个股上涨。 PCB、CPO领涨算力硬件 板块题材方面，昨日表现最为亮眼的是算力硬件与医药两大板块。在算力硬件领域，相关个股全线爆 发。其中，印制电路板（PCB）板块全天强势领涨，满坤科技、广合科技、鹏鼎控股、东山精密等多只 个股涨停封板。 此外，国际化突破加速为行业打开了更大的成长空间。据中邮证券统计，中国在全球创新药BD（商务 拓展）交易中的项目数占比从2019年的3%跃升至2024年的13%，金额占比从1%提升至28%。2025年上 半年中国创新药License out（授权输出）总金额已接近660亿美元，跨国公司对中国创新药资产关注度 有望延续。 外资上调中国股市评级至增持 ...

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend focusing on innovative drugs and the innovative industry chain, highlighting improvements in both domestic and overseas markets for July 2025 [5][4] - The investment strategy suggests a sustained focus on innovative drugs and related industries, with a specific portfolio of recommended stocks for A-shares and H-shares [5][6] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 994.79 billion yuan with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% from January to May 2025, while total profits decreased by 4.7% to 135.32 billion yuan [9][8] - The overall industrial added value for the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector grew by 0.9% during the same period, indicating a modest recovery [9][8] Market Performance - In June 2025, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a 0.70% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.80% [10][11] - The medical service sector showed significant growth, with a 4.77% increase, while traditional Chinese medicine and medical commercial sectors faced declines of 1.86% and 1.23%, respectively [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to achieve sales growth supported by medical insurance negotiations and commercial health insurance [5][4] - Recommended companies with high-quality innovation capabilities include Kelun-Biotech, CanSino Biologics, and Innovent Biologics, among others [5][4] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a PE (TTM) of 46.97, which is at the 73.1% historical percentile over the past five years [20][19] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation has fully adjusted, with premium rates relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market being at their five-year averages [20][19] Recent Approvals and Applications - In June 2025, four innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including three domestic products and one imported product [22][23] - The report tracks NDA and IND applications for innovative drugs, highlighting several key products and their respective companies [24][25][26]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond futures index is fluctuating around the half-year line, consistent with previous assessments, suggesting that the weak adjustment in the stock market and the sluggish fundamentals will support high-level fluctuations in the bond market until the stock market strengthens again [4][16]. - Positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, such as the lifting of restrictions on Nvidia chips and partial easing of rare earth exports, combined with expectations of inflation stabilizing due to anti-involution policies, suggest a trend where stocks rise and bonds fall [4][16]. Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - The A-share market has seen trading volumes return above 1.5 trillion, with various sectors like banking, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry experiencing significant rallies, reflecting a "hundred schools of thought" phenomenon [5][20]. - The report maintains that the upward trend in the index is not over, with expectations that it will surpass the high point from October 8 of the previous year, and identifies 3420 points as a strong short-term support level for the index [5][20]. - Key observation points for potential trend reversals include oil price peaks, sustained trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [5][20][21]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights three main sectors for investment: anti-involution policies leading to recovery in sectors like photovoltaics, live pigs, and glass; significant turning points in industries such as solid-state batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals; and high-dividend sectors, particularly coal, which benefits from anti-involution policies [21][22]. - The report notes that the military industry stocks are performing well, with companies like AVIC Shenfei reaching historical highs, and the innovative pharmaceutical sector seeing a nearly 3% increase [21][22]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1806, showing an increase of 15 basis points from the previous day, with the offshore RMB breaking its downward trend [6][31]. - The report anticipates that the RMB will perform better than most non-USD currencies due to favorable trade negotiation outcomes compared to Europe and Japan [6][31]. Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The Wenhua Commodity Index has completed a bottom breakout, with a recommendation to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly in anti-involution related sectors [7][35]. - The report warns investors to be cautious of strong commodities like polysilicon due to potential short squeeze risks, while suggesting that geopolitical uncertainties may lead to continued volatility in oil and related products [7][35].

生物医药 创新药动态更新 领先大市-B(维持) PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 三抗 CS2009：剂量爬坡耐受性良好，冷肿瘤及 PD-(L)1 经治患者中观察到抗肿瘤活性 2025 年 7 月 17 日 行业研究/行业快报 生物医药行业近一年市场表现 药物点评： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 PD-1(L1)/VEGF 双抗：多项 NSCLC III 期临床达到 PFS 终点，结直肠癌等肿瘤 一线临床获益明显 2025.7.10 芦康沙妥珠单抗：在 NSCLC、乳腺癌多 种适应症及后线 UC 临床生存获益明显 2025.7.7 分析师： 魏赟 执业登记编码：S0760522030005 邮箱：weiyun@sxzq.com 邓周宇 执业登记编码：S0760524040002 邮箱：dengzhouyu@sxzq.com 邮箱：zhangzhiyong@sxzq.com CS2009 是基石药业自研的 PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 三特异性抗体。CS2009 具有单价 PD-1 和 CTLA-4 结合臂以及双价 VEGFA 结合臂，通过阻断 PD-1/CTLA-4、激活T细胞及中和VEGFA，实现多维 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a rebound trend and the Shenzhen market performing particularly strong, with almost all sectors rotating [1] - The market is reaching new highs, indicating a main upward trend, with previously mentioned strategies being validated [1] Investment Strategies - A model called "Old Duck Head" is suggested, which focuses on stocks where moving averages converge and then show signs of volume expansion, indicating potential for sudden price increases [1] - Different market phases require different models; for example, the "moving average flowering" model is particularly effective during upward trends [2] Market Outlook - Caution is advised for the next trading day due to the upcoming stock index futures settlement date, with a reminder to monitor this date [2] - Despite concerns about certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and robotics, there are still strong performances in innovative drugs and some robotics stocks [2] ETF Performance - Food and Beverage ETF (515170): Recent five-day change is +0.70%, with a PE ratio of 20.01 and a net inflow of 17.22 million [4] - Gaming ETF (159869): Recent five-day change is -3.16%, with a PE ratio of 43.26 and a net outflow of 11.49 million [4] - Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630): Recent five-day change is +8.58%, with a PE ratio of 108.74 and a net outflow of 1.76 million [5]