Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a rebound on November 11, with significant gains in various sub-sectors including chemical pharmaceuticals, innovative drugs, weight loss drugs, and recombinant proteins [2] Group 1: Sector Performance - The chemical pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, contributing to the overall recovery of the pharmaceutical industry [2] - Innovative drugs also saw notable increases, indicating a positive market sentiment towards new drug developments [2] - Weight loss drugs and recombinant proteins were among the top gainers, reflecting growing consumer interest and demand in these areas [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Gendik rose over 15%, highlighting its strong market performance within the sector [2] - Hongyuan Pharmaceutical increased by more than 7%, indicating investor confidence in its growth prospects [2] - Other companies such as Nanjing New Pharmaceutical, Hendi Pharmaceutical, Haichen Pharmaceutical, and Tailong Pharmaceutical also experienced upward movements, suggesting a broader trend of recovery among pharmaceutical stocks [2]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, 2025, showcasing the latest innovations in the medical device and pharmaceutical sectors, which may accelerate domestic and international collaborations in the innovative drug industry [1] - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (520500) has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with an average daily turnover of 964 million yuan since November 2025, up 49% from October, and has achieved a net inflow of funds for eight consecutive trading days [1] - The innovative drug sector reported a 36% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with net profit turning from a loss of 500 million yuan in the same period last year to a profit of 1.5 billion yuan, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [2] Group 2 - A major collaboration was established between a leading Hong Kong innovative drug company and Takeda Pharmaceutical for three products, valued at 11.4 billion USD, adopting a profit-sharing model [1] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is expected to transition from a "research investment phase" to a "value realization phase," supported by improved policy frameworks and strong performance in Q3 earnings [3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, with a new commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs expected to be published in December 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the innovative drug sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Medical Innovation ETF (516820.SH) down by 1.05% in early trading on November 11. Some constituent stocks showed mixed performance, with Haikang (002653) leading gains at 0.84% and Kanglong Chemical (300759) leading losses at 2.36% [1] - The Medical Innovation ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 44.28 million yuan, totaling 74.16 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 12.36 million yuan [1] - The negotiation for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug Catalog and the price negotiation for commercial insurance innovative drug catalog has been completed, with 120 domestic and foreign companies participating, including 127 off-catalog drugs in the basic medical insurance drug catalog negotiations and 24 drugs in the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog price negotiations [1] Group 2 - Recent developments in innovative drug business development (BD) have led to rapid advancement in overseas Phase III clinical trials, with a recovery in sentiment within the innovative drug sector. The industry trend remains unchanged, and after a short-term adjustment, the sector's elasticity has further increased [2] - There is a positive trend observed in investment and financing data, orders, and performance within the innovative drug industry chain, indicating a recovery in the sector [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is likely to enhance global liquidity and the trend of technology stocks, providing an opportunity for investors who missed the initial rally in the pharmaceutical sector to invest in core pharmaceutical assets through the Medical Innovation ETF (516820) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index frequently surpassing 4000 points, leading to a critical decision-making moment for professional investors [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - There is an increase in the number of public and private funds facing restrictions, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among investors [1] - Despite some investors considering profit-taking, many are choosing to hold their positions, reflecting confidence in the market's upward trajectory [2][4] - The stock private equity position index reached 80.16% as of October 31, marking a new high for the year [4] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Strategies - The technology sector has been a significant contributor to excess returns for public and private funds, prompting a strategic focus on optimizing portfolios within this sector [6][7] - Fund managers are shifting their strategies from valuation expansion to performance verification, emphasizing the importance of profit-taking and rotation in investments [6][8] - Key areas of interest include AI hardware, semiconductor equipment, and sectors benefiting from global demand [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Directions - Looking ahead, fund managers are optimistic about sectors such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as foundational to national competitiveness and security [9] - The cyclical industry is expected to improve due to supply-side adjustments and increasing demand for materials like rare earths and lithium driven by AI development [9] - The market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing technological advancements [4][10]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 兴业证券表示，近期创新药板块情绪回落，随着BD持续落地，当前板块景气度可持续，"创新+国际 化"创新药产业趋势不变，短期调整后创新药板块弹性进一步提升。 科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）聚焦科创板创新药企业，跟踪汇聚30家代表性优质公司的上证科创板创 新药指数，以高成长biotech为主，产品20%涨跌幅限制使其更贴合板块波动。 近期，创新药延续回调态势，科创创新药ETF（589720）近两个月跌近15%。回调期间，资金逢低买 入，连续5日净流入额超2.6亿元，近10日净流入额超3.5亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO of BaiLi Tianheng in the Hong Kong market is expected to fill a gap in the ADC drug sector, driven by technological advancements, surging demand, and supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - BaiLi Tianheng plans to launch its H-share global public offering with a base issuance of 8,634,300 shares, including 863,500 shares for public sale in Hong Kong [1]. - The price range for the shares is set between 347.50 HKD and 389.00 HKD, with trading expected to commence on November 17 [1]. - The H-shares are eligible for inclusion in the Stock Connect program on the listing date [1]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The IPO has attracted significant interest from major investors, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and notable cornerstone investors like Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) [2][3]. - BaiLi Tianheng's strong market position is attributed to its robust ADC drug development, independent global clinical capabilities, and innovative commercialization strategies [2]. - The partnership with BMS involves a groundbreaking deal worth 8.4 billion USD for the ADC product Iza-bren, marking a significant milestone in the ADC sector [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development and Clinical Trials - Iza-bren is the first-in-class dual-target ADC drug, currently in Phase III clinical trials, showing promising efficacy with a 55% overall response rate in late-stage cancer patients [5][6]. - The drug's potential peak sales could exceed 20 billion USD, indicating a strong commercial outlook [5][6]. - BaiLi Tianheng is also advancing another ADC, T-Bren, which has shown superior efficacy and safety compared to competitors, with a clinical objective response rate of 82.2% [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Strength and Future Prospects - As of June 30, BaiLi Tianheng had over 5 billion CNY in cash reserves, bolstered by a recent 3.764 billion CNY A-share placement and potential future payments from BMS [12]. - The company is positioned for significant growth in the global market, with a focus on building a comprehensive R&D and commercialization framework [10][11]. - The overall market sentiment towards innovative biopharmaceuticals is improving, with BaiLi Tianheng expected to be a key player in the sector [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, characterized as a bull market driven by industry trends (AI), fundamental improvements, and liquidity narratives [1][2] Macroeconomic Environment - The concept of "excess liquidity" is driving the pursuit of "scarce assets," with liquidity remaining abundant but the credit cycle shifting to oscillation or even slowdown [2] - The recognition of "scarce assets" changes with the credit cycle, impacting the types of assets that attract investment [2][3] Liquidity and Scarcity - The current situation in China is characterized by a coexistence of deflation and localized inflation, with excess liquidity leading to significant asset price differentiation [3][4] - The key questions for future market judgments are whether the liquidity environment has been damaged and if scarce assets can expand to a broader range [3][4] Credit Cycle and Asset Expansion - The credit cycle is expected to oscillate and slow down, making it difficult for scarce return assets to expand significantly [5][6] - The government’s role in stimulating credit expansion is limited, and structural issues remain a challenge for long-term growth [6][7] Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic valuation is currently at 11.4 times, indicating that the market is not "cheap" and future index space will require earnings recovery rather than relying solely on valuation expansion [8][9] - The overall earnings growth is projected to be modest, with a baseline scenario estimating a 3% growth in 2026 [9] Investment Strategy - The company suggests maintaining a moderate allocation to dividend assets to counterbalance the weak credit cycle expansion [10] - Focus on sectors that can still expand credit, such as AI technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while underweighting real estate and consumer goods [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market in 2025 is characterized as a bull market driven by industry trends (AI), fundamental improvements, and liquidity narratives, with significant contributions from risk premiums and structural performance [2][17]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's performance is influenced by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, leading to significant structural changes and asset rotation [25][26]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index saw a 30% increase, primarily driven by risk premiums rather than earnings growth [17][18]. - Structural characteristics include significant contributions from a small number of stocks, with 15 stocks accounting for 70% of index gains, while many others underperformed [2][19]. Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment remains abundant, with macro, micro, and external liquidity factors contributing to the current state [28][30]. - Macro liquidity is characterized by low interest rates and a loose monetary policy, while micro liquidity reflects a lack of effective demand leading to capital stagnation [28][30]. - External liquidity is expected to remain loose in the first half of 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and the ongoing "de-dollarization" narrative [34][35]. Group 3: Scarce Assets and Credit Cycle - The concept of "scarce assets" is determined by the credit cycle, with different phases affecting asset preferences, such as fixed-return assets during credit contraction and growth assets during recovery [3][36]. - The current credit cycle is expected to experience fluctuations, making it challenging for scarce return assets to expand broadly across the market [40][41]. - The government’s fiscal policies are limited in scope, with structural preferences affecting the ability to stimulate traditional demand sectors [45][46]. Group 4: Sector Outlook - Emerging demand sectors, particularly in technology and AI, are projected to maintain high growth, although expectations may be overly optimistic [41][42]. - Traditional demand sectors, such as real estate and consumer goods, are likely to weaken again after a brief recovery, primarily due to low income expectations and cost-return mismatches [43][44]. - Fiscal spending is expected to be limited but may shift structurally to support sectors with higher growth potential, such as technology and innovation [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have significantly increased their investment in Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases reaching record highs, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Inflows - On November 10, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 6.653 billion, marking the 14th consecutive trading day of net buying [1]. - Year-to-date, the total net inflow from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks has exceeded HKD 1.3 trillion, surpassing the previous year's total [1]. - Cumulatively, since the launch of the southbound trading scheme, net purchases have historically exceeded HKD 5 trillion for the first time [2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market has seen impressive gains this year, driven by opportunities in AI asset revaluation, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumption [3]. - Major indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have risen over 30% year-to-date, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceutical Index has surged over 80% [3]. - Despite market fluctuations, the inflow of southbound funds remains robust, supported by a growing number of quality IPOs and secondary listings from US and A-share companies [3]. Group 3: Role of ETFs in Investment - The rise of passive investment strategies has made ETFs a key tool for buying Hong Kong stocks, with significant inflows into various ETFs [4]. - The China Universal Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF has attracted HKD 55 billion this year, leading the inflow rankings among ETFs [4]. - Other notable ETFs, such as the ICBC Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and the E Fund Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, have also seen inflows exceeding HKD 20 billion [4]. Group 4: Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - The influx of southbound funds is gradually enhancing their pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with foreign capital starting to dominate trading volumes [5][6]. - Southbound funds are increasingly influencing the pricing dynamics in sectors like new consumption, dividends, and finance [6]. - ETFs have played a significant role in this shift, with substantial increases in holdings of Hong Kong brokerages by various ETFs [6]. Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - Current valuation levels in the Hong Kong market are considered attractive, with expectations of continued foreign capital inflows and enhanced pricing power for southbound funds [7]. - Analysts predict that the market will see a clearer influx of new capital in 2026, potentially exceeding HKD 1.5 trillion due to favorable conditions such as low allocation and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Hong Kong technology ETFs have attracted over 140 billion yuan in inflows this year, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [4][12]. - The overall net inflow for ETFs this week was 24.53 billion yuan, with significant contributions from cross-border ETFs focusing on the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals [12][18]. - The report notes a clear market focus on the energy sector, with both traditional and renewable energy stocks performing well, particularly coal and photovoltaic industries [15][19]. Group 2 - The stock ETFs showed a significant divergence in performance, with the best-performing funds centered around the photovoltaic sector, while the worst were in the innovative pharmaceuticals sector [4][11]. - The report indicates that insurance funds have been increasing their holdings in securities ETFs, suggesting a strategic reallocation in response to a declining interest rate environment [18][23]. - In the bond ETF segment, convertible bond ETFs performed well, with an average weekly increase of 0.86%, while pure bond ETFs lagged behind [19][22]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the consumer sector, particularly in light of recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [23][24]. - The report also discusses the potential for short-term style shifts in the market, with a focus on consumer stocks as the economic emphasis remains on supply-side reforms [23][24]. - The bond market is expected to have a positive outlook despite current pressures from the stock market, with reasons to remain optimistic about future performance [19][22].