Core Viewpoint - The current spring market is expected to favor technology growth and certain cyclical industries, with commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces emerging as key investment themes for the season [1][5]. Group 1: Spring Market Trends - The main phase of the spring market may witness a rebound, with industries benefiting from positive policies and trends likely to perform strongly [2]. - Historical data indicates that during the main phase of the spring market, sectors with low valuation sentiment and significant inflows of financing tend to experience a rebound [2]. - Industries such as communication, social services, and beauty care have shown strong performance during previous spring market phases due to favorable policies and industry trends [2]. Group 2: Technology and Cyclical Industries - Technology growth sectors like media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound in the upcoming spring market due to low valuations and sentiment [3]. - Supportive policies for technology growth and cyclical industries are likely to continue, with initiatives in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence being implemented [3]. - The upward trend in industries related to commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence is anticipated to persist in the short term [3]. Group 3: Economic and Liquidity Outlook - The economy is expected to continue its weak recovery, with profit growth likely to rebound, as indicated by the rising PPI year-on-year growth [4]. - Macro liquidity is projected to further loosen, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central banks [4]. - Risk appetite in the market may continue to improve due to the implementation of positive policies and limited overseas risks [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on technology growth and cyclical growth sectors, as theme indices typically outperform primary industry indices during the main phase of the spring market [5]. - Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are highlighted as key investment themes, with the space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 [5]. - Industries such as military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, gaming), and computing (AI applications, brain-computer interfaces) are recommended for low-cost allocation [5].

Group 1: Market Trends - The spring market's main rising phase may see a rebound in growth sectors, particularly those with low valuation sentiment and significant future financing inflows[1] - Historical data shows that during the main rising phases, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by approximately 4% to 22%, averaging around 19 trading days[10] - Key sectors that performed well during previous main rising phases include media, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which experienced substantial financing inflows[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the current spring market, technology growth sectors such as media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound due to low valuations and sentiment[2] - Financing inflows since December 17, 2025, have been significant in sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense, driven by ongoing industry trends[18] - The main rising phase typically sees theme indices outperforming primary industry indices, with notable gains in sectors like integrated circuits and digital marketing[42] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Short-term economic recovery remains weak, with CPI growth recorded at 0.8% and PPI at -1.9%, indicating a gradual improvement in industrial profitability[23] - The short-term liquidity environment is expected to loosen further, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central bank actions[31] - Risk appetite is likely to increase due to positive policy implementations and limited overseas risks, such as the anticipated Fed rate cut[38]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings forecast revisions, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15] - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the analyst-recommended stock pool using fundamental and technical dimensions to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15] - **Step 3**: The backtest period for the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio is from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025. Considering transaction costs in a fully invested state, the portfolio's annualized return is 19.08%, with an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong performance with significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection[15] Model Backtest Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.08%[15] - **Excess Return**: 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.19[20] - **Tracking Error**: 14.60%[20] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[20] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.76[20] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the momentum and trend-following strategies that are particularly effective in the Hong Kong market[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $Close_t$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[23] - **Step 2**: Screen stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[23] - **Step 3**: Select stocks with the following criteria: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in terms of price change over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Top 50% based on price displacement ratio and 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Top 50 stocks based on the 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures stocks with strong momentum and stable price paths, which are likely to continue their upward trends[21][23] Factor Backtest Results - **Stable New High Stocks**: - **Example Stocks**: J&T Express-W, China Eastern Airlines, Youran Dairy, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, China XLX Fertilizer, etc.[23][29] - **Sector Distribution**: Most new high stocks are in the cyclical sector, followed by finance, technology, consumer, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors[23][29]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant investment activities and developments in the LP market, particularly focusing on the growth of funds in the Chaoyang District of Beijing and other regions, emphasizing the importance of capital in fostering innovation and technology-driven industries [5][6][13]. Investment Activities - Chaoyang District has established a robust ecosystem for high-tech enterprises, with 3,649 national high-tech companies and 25 unicorns projected by mid-2025 [5]. - Two new RMB funds, each with a scale of 2 billion yuan, have been launched to invest in AI, advanced manufacturing, and biopharmaceuticals [6][13]. - Huaye Tiancheng's fifth fund raised 1.76 billion yuan, exceeding its initial target of 1.5 billion yuan, with a high market-oriented capital ratio of 80% [8]. - Lakesun Capital's new fund focused on AI and semiconductor industries raised 400 million yuan [9]. - Dongfang Jiafu's sub-fund for small and medium enterprises successfully completed a first close of 1.6 billion yuan, targeting advanced manufacturing and life sciences [10]. - Warburg Pincus raised 3 billion USD for its financial sector fund, exceeding its initial target by 20% [11]. Fund Establishments - The establishment of the Xi'an Semiconductor Industry Development Fund with a capital of 1 billion yuan aims to leverage Xi'an's technological advantages in the semiconductor sector [15]. - The AIC equity investment fund in Xi'an, with a scale of 1 billion yuan, focuses on high-end equipment manufacturing [17]. - The Huazhong Medical Industry Fund, with a scale of 1 billion yuan, targets chemical innovation drugs and high-end medical devices [23]. - The establishment of the "Laoshan Science and Technology Innovation Mother Fund" with a total scale of 3 billion yuan aims to support emerging industries in Qingdao [20]. GP Recruitment - Zhejiang's special merger and acquisition fund is seeking GP partners to enhance its investment ecosystem, focusing on new-generation information technology and advanced manufacturing [27]. - The Shanxi Jinchuang Technology Innovation Fund is recruiting GP partners to support strategic emerging industries in the province [28].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has significantly rebounded in 2025, with 99 companies listed by December 12, raising over 250 billion HKD, accounting for 67% of the total fundraising for Chinese stocks, marking a 10-year high [1][18][20] - The IPO success rate in Hong Kong reached 73% in 2025, with an apparent return rate of 34%, both significantly higher than previous years, although the average one-hand winning rate dropped to 20%, the lowest in nearly a decade [1][20][22] - Looking ahead to 2026, the IPO financing in Hong Kong is expected to remain active, with 314 listing applications currently in processing, and the Hang Seng Index having increased by over 30% in 2025, which historically correlates with a more than 30% explanation of the following year's IPO activity [1][23][28] Group 2 - Key characteristics of the Hong Kong IPO market include a low listing rate of 37% since 2016 despite the registration system, no market capitalization requirements for IPO participation, and a significantly higher winning rate compared to A-shares [2][41][45] - The relationship between primary market financing and secondary market performance is weakly positive, driven by common factors such as a weak US dollar and low Hibor rates, with IPO financing typically representing a small proportion of market capitalization and trading volume, limiting the "liquidity extraction effect" [2][8][72] - Historical data shows that large IPOs tend to have a 56% probability of strengthening the Hang Seng Index post-listing, with consumer discretionary and technology sector IPOs providing some uplift to their respective sectors [9][77][79] Group 3 - A multi-dimensional screening model for selecting IPOs can enhance returns, with a scoring system based on market sentiment, company fundamentals, and issuance characteristics, indicating that selecting stocks with scores above 2.5 can improve returns by approximately 15 percentage points [10][31][41] - The performance of IPOs varies significantly across sectors, with consumer goods, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals showing strong performance, while sectors like home appliances and oil and petrochemicals lag behind [10][49]

Group 1 - The State Council of China is implementing a package policy to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and supporting private investment [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to help stabilize foreign market prices and reduce trade friction risks [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting an investigation into the competitive status of the food delivery service industry, with major platforms like Meituan and JD Express expressing their willingness to cooperate [1] Group 2 - Baogang Co. announced an adjustment in the related transaction price for rare earth concentrate to 26,834 yuan per ton (excluding tax), reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter [3] - The company Tongfu Microelectronics plans to raise no more than 4.4 billion yuan through a private placement [3] - Zhongchao Technology expects a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% year-on-year for 2025 [3]

Group 1: Market Competition in Food Delivery Platforms - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee has initiated an investigation into the market competition status of the food delivery platform service industry, based on the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [2][3] - The investigation aims to address issues such as excessive subsidies, price wars, and traffic control that have been reported in the food delivery sector, which are seen as squeezing the real economy and intensifying "involution" competition [2][3] - The committee will employ methods such as on-site verification, face-to-face interviews, and surveys to gather comprehensive insights into competitive behaviors within the food delivery platforms and will solicit opinions from various stakeholders including operators, new employment groups, and consumers [3] Group 2: Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Regulations - The National Healthcare Security Administration has drafted a consultation document regarding the adjustment of the medical insurance drug catalog, which includes a new communication process for reference drugs [4] - This new process aims to enhance the scientific, fair, and standardized selection of reference drugs, starting with Class 1 new drugs as classified by the National Medical Products Administration [4] - Pharmaceutical companies can voluntarily apply for pre-communication regarding reference drugs, which will be verified for authenticity and completeness before feedback is provided [4][5]

Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual CPI remaining flat compared to the previous year [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's derivatives market reached 1.6628 million contracts in 2025, a 7% increase from 2024, setting a new record [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock options in 2025 was 879,800 contracts, marking a 22% increase from 2024 and also a record high [1] New Indices and Market Developments - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the launch of three new indices: the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Technology Index, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Index, all calculated and published in real-time every two seconds [2][3] - The Hang Seng Dual Technology Index combines components from the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, covering technology and biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong [2] Corporate News - Transportation Company announced plans to swap assets with its controlling shareholder, Jiushi Group, involving significant assets in the entertainment and tourism sectors, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6][7] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to issue shares to acquire 100% equity of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Blue Star North Chemical, with a transaction price of 1.202 billion yuan, which is also expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [8] - Farson intends to sell a 10% stake in Beikaerte Steel Wire to a Hong Kong company for 161 million yuan, marking another significant asset restructuring [8] - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend distribution plan of approximately 2 billion yuan, with a payout of 13.58 yuan per 10 shares [8] Market Regulations and Policies - The National Medical Insurance Administration and the Ministry of Finance released a notice to optimize the personal account mutual aid policy for employee basic medical insurance, expanding the mutual aid scope from provincial to national levels [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, including the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products [1] Company Performance - Shaanxi Guotou A reported a net profit of 1.439 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.70% [12] - China Shipbuilding Defense expects a net profit of 940 million to 1.12 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.61% to 196.88% [12] - Chipong Micro expects a net profit of approximately 185 million yuan for 2025, an increase of about 66% year-on-year [12]

证券日报网讯 1月9日，北大医药（000788）发布公告称，公司将于2026年1月28日召开2026年第一次临 时股东会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has entered the 10 trillion yuan economy club, with a focus on high-quality development and the strategic goal of building Linyi into a trillion-yuan city as part of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][3] Economic Development - Linyi is positioned as a key economic city in Shandong, aiming to accelerate its growth towards becoming a trillion-yuan city [2] - In 2024, Linyi's GDP reached 655.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [3] - By the end of 2025, Linyi's GDP is projected to approach 700 billion yuan, maintaining a steady growth trend [3] Trade and Logistics - Linyi's commerce and logistics sector is crucial for its economic growth, with a market transaction volume of 645.61 billion yuan and a logistics total of 1.01196 trillion yuan in 2025 [4][5] - The city aims to enhance its logistics capabilities, targeting a market transaction volume of over 1 trillion yuan and logistics total exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [5] Industrial Development - Linyi is focusing on building a modern industrial system, with significant investments in eight key industries including food, wood, metallurgy, and chemicals [6] - By the end of 2025, Linyi's industrial output value is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, supported by the development of 13 key industrial chains [6] Cultural and Tourism Sector - The cultural and tourism industry has become a pillar of Linyi's economy, with tourism revenue reaching 870.84 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 13.88% increase [8][9] - Linyi's tourism strategy includes integrating cultural resources with consumption to stimulate economic growth [9][11] Strategic Goals - Linyi aims to become a regional center with a strong economy, vibrant culture, and a high quality of life, as outlined in its "14th Five-Year Plan" [12][13] - The city is committed to rural revitalization and enhancing its agricultural sector, with over 190 rural revitalization demonstration areas established [14][15] Implementation and Future Outlook - Linyi plans to implement twelve major projects to enhance industrial capacity, innovation, and domestic demand, ensuring sustainable economic growth [15][16] - The city is focused on practical actions and a spirit of innovation to achieve its trillion-yuan city goal [16]