Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - New season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, putting pressure on the market. The 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to face import pressure in the third quarter due to the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR505 closed at 6073 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.85%, with a position of 13,644 contracts, a decrease of 2,518 contracts. SR509 closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 305,344 contracts, a decrease of 858 contracts. US sugar 05 closed at 17.38 cents/pound, down 0.24 cents or 1.36%, with a position of 30,343 contracts, a decrease of 14,074 contracts. US sugar 07 closed at 17.24 cents/pound, down 0.30 cents or 1.71%, with a position of 348,504 contracts, an increase of 2,994 contracts [7]. Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday, with the main July contract down 1.71% to 17.24 cents/pound. London ICE white sugar futures were closed for the UK public holiday. During the May Day holiday, foreign raw sugar maintained a weakening trend. The new season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, and the 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract showed a weak shock. The 09 contract closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a reduction of 858 contracts. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. After the rainfall in Guangxi, the market lost the impetus for speculation. The weak foreign raw sugar also dragged down Zhengzhou sugar, and the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China opened, so the import pressure in the third quarter is expected to be large. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 5: Industry News - As of April 30, India had produced 25.69 million tons of sugar, and about 19 sugar mills were still in operation. About 10 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh were still operating, and 8 of them were in western Uttar Pradesh. These sugar mills are expected to continue operating for 7 - 10 days. The increase in sugarcane production has improved the sugarcane supply in Uttar Pradesh, allowing some sugar mills to continue operating. In addition, the increase in sugar recovery rate in the second half of the season has also increased sugar production [9]. - From the Brazilian foreign trade secretariat's export data on April 28, Brazil exported 1,281,866.53 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of April, with an average daily export volume of 75,403.91 tons, a 12% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 85,875.17 tons in the whole of April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 1,889,253.72 tons [9]. - Ukraine will reduce its sugar beet planting area by 17% this year, resulting in a significant decline in sugar production and a sharp drop in exports, especially to the EU. It is expected that Ukraine's sugar production will drop to 1.5 million tons this year, down from 1.8 million tons last year, and the export volume will be reduced to 180,511 tons, compared with 746,000 tons in 2024 [9]. - According to a survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil in the first half of April is expected to be 694,000 tons, a 3.8% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach 671 million tons, of which 618 million tons will come from the central - southern region accounting for 91% of the country's production, and 53 million tons will come from the northeast and north regions. Brazil will continue to be the world's largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the next season [9][10]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][20].

国际食糖贸易流向恐将出现重大变化 2025年2月，美国新任总统特朗普上台后，开始推出一系列对外加征关税政策。受此因素影响，国内外食糖价 格出现波动。我国与美国的食糖贸易往来相对较少，因此国内糖市未受到关税加征的直接冲击，然而国际糖市 却受到了以原油为首的大宗商品市场波动、汇率变动以及国际食糖贸易流向改变等多重因素的间接影响。 图为国内外糖价走势 | 科学 | 总进 | 黑西哥 | | 巴西 | | 多米尼加 | | 其他国家 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 口景 | 进口量 | 出 | 进口量 | 占比 | 进口景 | 占比 | 进口量 | 占比 | | 2014/2015 | 286 | 140 | 49% | 34 | 12% | 17 | 6% | 80 | 28% | | 2015/2016 | 293 | 147 | 50% | 35 | 12% | 18 | 6% | 79 | 27% | | 2016/2017 | 270 | 127 | 47% | 35 | 13% | 16 | 6% ...

Core Insights - The USDA forecasts that rainfall will contribute to a 26% increase in India's sugar production for the 2025-26 planting season [1] Group 1 - The anticipated increase in sugar production is significant, indicating a positive outlook for the Indian sugar industry [1]

Core Insights - The USDA forecasts that rainfall will contribute to a 26% increase in India's sugar production for the 2025-26 planting season [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in sugar production is significant, indicating a potential boost in supply [1] - This growth in production may impact global sugar prices and trade dynamics [1] - The forecast highlights the importance of weather conditions in agricultural output [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

□ 本报记者 王薛淄 中国轻工联兼职副会长、中国缝制机械协会理事长杨晓京： 扩政策、优标准、强协同 巩固缝机强国地位 会上，多位兼职副会长、兼职副会长单位代表围绕会议主题，结合行业发展形势，交流座谈专项行动思 路、措施和建议。大家纷纷表示，要深刻领会党中央提振消费的战略意图，深入行业调研，汇聚各方智 慧，发挥引领作用，准确把握市场新需求、新动向，创新培育消费增长点，在学以致用、行以致远中推 动轻工业高质量发展。 缝制机械兼具装备、消费品双重属性，促进缝制机械消费、普及行业创新成果、服务人民美好生活一直 是中国缝制机械协会工作的重要抓手。2024年，协会通过七大举措推动高质量发展：一是围绕"两新"政 策开展宣贯引导，坚定行业信心；二是以线上线下结合形式普及缝艺文化，举办十余场技能培训；三是 制修订绿色、智能、适老化相关国家标准，驱动产品迭代升级；四是对标国家"三品"战略，遴选发布87 项创新产品，通过专项推介会对接产业链需求；五是联合兄弟协会举办智能化装备研讨会及行业峰会， 促进跨领域协同；六是组织海外参展及市场调研，拓展"一带一路"新兴市场；七是筹办CISMA2025国 际展会，打造全球行业风向标。2025年 ...

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The Trump tariff policy has severely impacted consumer confidence in the U.S., particularly among middle and low-income groups, leading to reduced spending [1] - Companies that primarily target middle-class consumers, such as McDonald's, General Motors, Harley-Davidson, and Hershey, are experiencing declining sales and profit pressures [1] - McDonald's reported its lowest sales in mature U.S. restaurants since the pandemic, attributing this to cautious spending by lower-income customers [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Impact - Harley-Davidson's motorcycle sales fell by 24% year-over-year, with the CEO citing economic uncertainty and high interest rates as key factors [2] - General Motors, despite initial sales growth, has lowered its annual profit forecast by $2 billion to $3 billion due to tariff costs of $4 billion to $5 billion [2] - GM plans to increase North American prices by up to 1%, reversing an earlier expectation of a price decrease [2] Group 3: Confectionery Sector Challenges - Hershey reported a 15% decline in sales of candy, mints, and gum, with executives noting a growing consumer focus on value [3] - The company anticipates a loss of $15 million to $20 million in the current quarter due to tariffs on key raw materials like cocoa, which cannot be grown domestically [3] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Apple reported strong second-quarter sales driven by increased iPhone demand, potentially due to panic buying before new tariffs took effect [4] - Analysts warn that ongoing economic uncertainty poses real risks to both domestic and global economies, with signs of declining business and consumer confidence [4]

印度2024-25年糖出口量预计为80万吨。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，印度2024-25年糖出口量预计为80万吨。 ...