【 机构观点综评 】 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续。博时基金认为，存款 挂牌利率下移，汇率约束的缓解，货币市场以及短端利率补降可能会延续。 一、焦点锐评 1．LPR迎来年内首降，六大行同步调降存款利率 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：特朗普政策不确定性仍是大类资产配置主线 中信证券明明认为，大类资产配置方面，特朗普政策不确定性仍然是大类资产配置的主线，未来需要关 注外贸政策缓和或焦点转向内政的可能性。而在目前特朗普影响市场的模式中，"特朗普看跌期权"仍然 生效。在今年底至明年初之前，美债或为4%~5%区间震荡行情；黄金仍然是最具确定性的资产；特朗 普影响下美股的胜率仍然偏低；美元或偏弱震荡。但若特朗普政策焦点转向内部，美股和美债的拐点可 能提前到来。 2.方正证券：小微盘占优行情特征或延续 方正证券指出，展望后市，小微盘占优行情特征或将延续，主要判断依据包括：一是当前资本市场无系 统性风险，整体上A股风险偏好在不断回升。二是工业品价格持续收缩、上市公司盈利仍在筑底，经济 转型探索新方向过程仍在延续。三是流动性持续宽裕，无风险利率处于历史低位。四是新质生产力持续 发展，并购重组进一步释放市场活 ...

震荡区间下限：1. 5月政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶段，宽货币及时全面兑现，并与稳定资本市场 直接关联。2. 平准基金有力托底资本市场下行风险，并兼顾舆情管理，形成向上支撑力。 短期调整：1. 宏观上，短期美国不确定性增加。美债标售高利率，特朗普减税方案部分妥 协，"金穹"天基导弹系统引发了市场担忧。弱美元、弱美股、高美债利率的组合，指向资本市 场风险偏好回落。从基本面传导角度，美国经济下行风险增加，也会强化中期中国外需回落担 忧。2. 结构上，前期结构主线不清晰阶段，小微盘占优，短期微观结构恶化，触发调整。3. 博 弈公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢的行情，短期阻力也明显增加。我们认为，绝大部分基金经理 都有必要重新检视业绩比较基准的选择，但绝不是所有基金经理都应该向业绩比较基准靠拢。 基金持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢之下，潜在资金流入行业(非银、银行、建筑、公用事业、煤 炭)，实际流入资金占流通市值比例也偏低。这可能只是"买预期，卖兑现"的投资案件。另 外，市场预期6月业绩比较基准调整落地，彼时市场博弈的锚定基准和5月可能明显不同。我们 认为，这个短期博弈性价比已至低位，行情已经基本结束。 二、A股中期重回结构牛，仍依赖于 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish probability of 62% for the coal industry and 61% for the media industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant inflows in the food and beverage, as well as mechanical equipment sectors [5]. - The active equity funds have increased their positions notably in the beauty and personal care sector [5]. - The ETF share growth is particularly high in the military industry, while the automotive sector has seen a decrease in share [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry has a bullish probability of 62% and the media industry has a probability of 61% [4]. Fund Flow Insights - The food and beverage sector ranks first in net inflows, while mechanical equipment ranks second [4]. - Active equity funds have increased their positions in the beauty and personal care sector, indicating a positive outlook [5]. ETF Insights - The report identifies ETFs with high growth potential based on the AI model scoring above 0.8, focusing on those with a recent average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million [7]. - Specific ETFs highlighted include the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF and the Hong Kong Medical ETF [8].

Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of three key financial metrics—ROE, cash flow, and growth potential—as the foundational pillars for assessing a company's value and its ability to navigate market cycles [1][8]. ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for the A-share market decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [5][7]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [6][7]. - The coal industry saw its ROE plummet from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a significant drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource advantages diminished [7][8]. - The real estate sector is the only one with a negative ROE of -0.4%, driven by a -3.2% net profit margin and a high leverage ratio of 3.3, indicating unsustainable high-leverage models under declining demand [7][8]. Growth Potential - The electronics industry leads in revenue growth with a 17.4% increase, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor manufacturing [9][11]. - Nine industries, including electronics and automotive, reported net profit growth, with the electronics sector achieving a remarkable 35.8% increase in net profit [11][12]. - The computer industry has the highest R&D investment ratio at 12.9%, indicating a focus on building technological barriers for long-term value creation [12][13]. Cash Flow Insights - The coal industry has the highest operating cash flow, amounting to 2,111.3 million, with a strong profitability ratio of 1.6, indicating robust cash flow coverage [16][19]. - Only 44% of A-share companies have a healthy cash flow ratio, with 56% showing concerning profitability quality, highlighting potential funding shortages for many firms [19][20]. - The top five industries by operating cash flow (oil and petrochemicals, communication, public utilities, transportation, and automotive) demonstrate a trend of stable cash flow generation, supporting capital expenditures without excessive reliance on external financing [20][21].

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 市场成交缩量，上证50走势偏强 市场分析 政策支持小微企业。国内方面，金融监管总局正联合科技部研究制定科技保险高质量发展政策文件，并推动保险 资金参与国家重大科技任务。证监会将支持突破关键核心技术的科技企业适用"绿色通道"。央行表示，目前已有 近100家机构发行超2500亿元科技创新债券。海外方面，特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，将交由参议 院审议。该法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。该法案将把美国债务上限提高 4万亿美元，低于参议院所希望的5万亿美元。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数跌0.22%收于3380.19点，创业板指跌0.96%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，仅银行、传媒、家用电器行业收红，美容护理、社会服务、基础化工、环保行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额小幅回落在1.1万亿元。证监会发行监管司司长表示，证监会将持续优化科技企业境内上市 的环境，会实施更加灵活精准的新股发行逆周期调节机制，把握好新股发行的节奏。继续发挥好创新试点的相关 制度，支持优质红筹科技企业回归境内上市。海外市场，美联储理事 ...

股票名称["中毅达","三生国健","锦波生物","江天化学","苏州龙杰","红墙股份","郑中设计","丽人丽 妆","保龄宝","源飞宠物","百利电气","湖南天雁","宁新新材","灵鸽科技","一致魔芋","南京港"] 板块名称["银行","军工","新消费","固态电池","游戏","保险","美容护理","代糖概念","宠物"] 监管压力、银行股走强、情绪退潮 看多看空（看空）市场多数个股下跌，高位股重挫，短线情绪退潮，北证50大跌等 锤死我了！ 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 以下是为您生成的中文快讯：今日沪指跌 0.22%，深成指跌 0.72%，创业板指跌 0.96%，北证 50 大跌超 6%。全市场超 4400 只个股下跌，两市成交额 1.1 万亿，较上个缩量 708 亿。中毅达尾盘跌停，多只高 位股重挫。银行股逆势走强 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index shows an oscillating pattern, suggesting an interval trading approach [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Index Data Tracking - On May 22, 2025, the closing prices of the four major futures index contracts showed mixed trends: IF fell 0.05%, IH rose 0.1%, IC fell 0.7%, and IM fell 0.81% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices rebounded, with IF's total trading volume decreasing by 5,644 lots, IH's increasing by 964 lots, IC's increasing by 18,347 lots, and IM's increasing by 52,241 lots [2] - Regarding positions, IF's total positions decreased by 1,805 lots, IH's increased by 817 lots, IC's increased by 7,568 lots, and IM's increased by 23,866 lots [2] b. Basis - Basis data for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in graphical form, showing the basis trends of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts over a period [4] c. Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - For IF contracts, the long - positions of IF2506 decreased by 2,557 lots, IF2509 increased by 335 lots, and IF2512 decreased by 22 lots; the short - positions of IF2506 decreased by 2,713 lots, IF2509 increased by 78 lots, and IF2512 increased by 37 lots [5] - For IH contracts, the long - positions of IH2506 increased by 875 lots, IH2509 increased by 143 lots; the short - positions of IH2506 decreased by 68 lots, IH2509 increased by 205 lots [5] - For IC contracts, the long - positions of IC2506 increased by 3,227 lots, IC2509 increased by 788 lots, and IC2512 increased by 1,028 lots; the short - positions of IC2506 increased by 2,927 lots, IC2509 increased by 780 lots, and IC2512 increased by 1,500 lots [5] - For IM contracts, the long - positions of IM2506 increased by 11,520 lots, IM2509 increased by 3,538 lots; the short - positions of IM2506 increased by 11,222 lots, IM2509 increased by 3,445 lots [5] d. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [6] e. Important Drivers - The selling of US Treasuries has temporarily paused, the Nasdaq has rebounded with difficulty, the tax - cut bill has hit photovoltaic stocks, Bitcoin has reached a new high again during the session, and crude oil has fallen by more than 2% [6] - Fed Governor Waller said that the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if the tariff policy stabilizes around 10%, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [6] f. A - share Market Summary - On the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.22% at 3,380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.72%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 6.15%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.48%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.63%, the Wind A500 Index fell 0.28%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 0.3% [7] - A - share trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan, down from 1.21 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - Military stocks led the gains, with Guoke Tiancheng and Sichuang Electronics hitting the daily limit; innovative drug concept stocks were active, with Sansheng Guojian having four consecutive daily limits; bank stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, with many stocks such as Everbright Bank and China CITIC Bank reaching new highs; pet economy concept stocks led the decline, with Yuanfei Pet hitting the daily limit down; beauty care concept stocks tumbled, with Marubi and Jieya Co., Ltd. falling more than 8%; solid - state battery concept stocks retreated, with many stocks falling more than 5% [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.1%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.0%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2% on Thursday [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were banking (+1%), media (+0.1%), and home appliances (0%), while the worst-performing sectors included beauty care (-2.0%), social services (-1.8%), basic chemicals (-1.7%), environmental protection (-1.5%), and real estate (-1.4%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,102.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.88 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Fixed Income Credit Bonds - The core viewpoint indicates that the main value of sci-tech bonds lies in contributing incremental value to the bond market, with an expected annual issuance close to 1.9 trillion yuan, which alleviates asset scarcity issues [5] - In terms of pricing, sci-tech bonds have an average yield spread of approximately 10 basis points compared to ordinary bonds issued by the same entity, suggesting that the market pricing for sci-tech bonds has not changed due to policy shifts [5] Macroeconomic Analysis - The core viewpoint highlights that the fiscal situation in April 2025 showed improvement, with national public budget revenue increasing by 1.9% year-on-year (compared to 0.3% in March), and public budget expenditure rising by 5.8% year-on-year (compared to 5.7% in March) [6] - The second budget also improved, with government fund budget revenue growth recorded at 8.1%, returning to positive growth [6] - The report suggests that to address potential uncertainties, the central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space, including the possibility of issuing special government bonds and special bonds [6]

A股复盘 | 银行科技 / 2025.05.22 恰逢今天周四，A股跌了， 银行又逆势上涨 ！ 恰逢今天又有发布会，主题是科技金融政策！ 于是乎，银行科技诞生，哈哈哈 今天微盘股、北证50崩了！昨天晚上，群里流传着卖方的研究成果——微盘股交 易太拥挤！这好像给了市场一种信号，卖！ 北证50直接大跌6%。 不过今天A股下跌还有外围因素，近期日债、美债风险大爆发，隔夜20年期美债 标售爆冷，直接带崩了股债汇！收盘美股三大指数均创一个月来的最大跌幅。30 年期国债收益率升至5.09%；十年期也升至4.60%。 而现在，避险 资产已经不单单是黄金了，比特币表现更优。 周四早盘，比特币涨破11万美元，再创历史新高，自特朗普当选总统以来已上涨 超过 60%。自"解放日"以来，虽然黄金也出现了稳健反弹，但比特币似乎成为 了全球应对不确定性的首选资产。 德意志银行比较悲观，首席外汇策略师George Saravelos指出，美元兑日元与 10年期美债收益率之间不断扩大的背离，是财政风险上升的信号。而美债拍卖结 果更是明确无误地显示出： "外国买家正在集体罢工，拒绝购买美国资产，这正 是我们一直以来所警告的美国财政风险。" 外 ...