证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：尚未形成合力 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 26 日，股债跷跷板仍在晃动，不过重心略向债市倾斜。权益资产在三连涨后，迎来休整，重要股指多 数小幅下挫；债市早盘举棋不定，午后情绪修复，各期限利率一致下行。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘板块跌幅较窄，上证指数、沪深 300 分别下跌 0.22%、0.35%，中证红利指 数小幅上涨 0.03%；小微盘跌幅同样不大，中证 2000 下跌 0.18%，万得微盘股指上涨 0.25%；科技类方面，科创 50 下跌 0.57%，恒生科技下跌 0.26%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp、1.5bp 至 1.64%、 1.85%；受到收盘时间影响，30 年国债期货主力合约仅上涨 0.10%，10 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.02%。 国际商品方面，原油和黄金价格亚盘时间连续第二日反弹。随着地缘政治风险逐步降温，市场对原油关注 点部分转向供需基本面。美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存全面下降 ...

2025.6.25 市场逻辑 市场热点 金融:国泰君安国际升级证券交易牌照 ◇驱动:2025年6月24日,国泰君安国际最新获香港证监会批准,将现有证券交易牌照升 级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务,以及在提供虚拟资产交易服务的基础上提供意见,港股国泰 君安国际大涨 198.39%。 ◇注:我们对以上信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,涉及的信息随时都可能会有新变 化,需谨 慎参考。 大涨分析 ◆牌照升级:此种做法在香港俗称"一号牌升级",牌照升级后,国泰君安可在其国际平台 为客户提供加密货币(比特币、以太币等)、稳定币(泰达币)。 相关公司: 国泰海通、弘业期货、众安在线、四方精创、京北方、中科金财、金证股份、华泰证券、 军工阅兵展示新质力量 令事件:2025年6月24日盘中消息,9月3日,中国将举行抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争 胜利 80周年纪念活动并举行阅兵仪式。1945年9月3日,中国人民经过14年浴血奋战, 取得抗日战争伟大胜利,宣告了世界反法西斯战争的完全胜利。在国庆 70 周年盛大阅兵式 中,公司 99A 坦克、15 式轻型坦克、8x8 轮式装甲无线电接入节点车等 4型 66 台套装备铁甲 雄风、威武雄壮通过 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The focus is on the A-share market and its potential for significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, particularly regarding the Shanghai Composite Index and various sectors within the market [1][5][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The A-share market is expected to experience a breakthrough rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,450 points, indicating a potential new high since October 2022 [1][4]. 2. **Free Cash Flow Improvement**: There is a notable improvement in free cash flow among listed companies, driven by enhanced operating cash flow and a systematic decline in capital expenditures. This trend is expected to be confirmed in the upcoming half-year reports [1][6]. 3. **External Factors**: The reduction of external headwinds, such as geopolitical conflicts and the U.S.-China tariff war, is anticipated to alleviate market uncertainties, thereby supporting market growth [1][7]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Key sectors expected to perform well include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), midstream manufacturing, and consumer services, with specific mentions of semiconductors, automotive, and food processing [19][27]. 5. **Profitability Trends**: Industrial enterprises are showing signs of profitability improvement, with revenue growth in various sectors, although profit margins remain under pressure due to price declines [13][14]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended sectors for July 2025 include computers, electronics, machinery, biopharmaceuticals, defense, and non-ferrous metals, based on quantitative scoring and performance forecasts [21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Data from January to May 2025 indicates a slowdown in production growth, particularly in midstream manufacturing, while consumer sectors like home appliances and communication equipment are performing well [9][10]. 2. **Inventory and Contract Liabilities**: High contract liability growth in sectors such as defense, basic chemicals, and electronics suggests potential for continued performance improvement [17][18]. 3. **Market Correlation**: There is a strong correlation between market performance and industry fundamentals, with high-performing sectors aligning with positive financial indicators [19]. 4. **Geopolitical Context**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding defense spending and military trade, is influencing market dynamics and sector recommendations [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the expected market trends, sector performance, and underlying economic indicators that could influence investment decisions in the A-share market.

Group 1: Deep Sea Technology and Situational Awareness - The report highlights the increasing focus on "Deep Sea Technology" due to the upcoming military parade on September 3, which will showcase new combat forces including unmanned systems and underwater equipment [2][8] - The core of "Deep Sea Technology" revolves around resource security, national defense construction, and blue economy, with situational awareness being a key component [2][9] - The challenges in situational awareness construction lie in underwater signal processing, which is deemed critical for effective underwater operations [9][10] Group 2: Huaren Microelectronics (华润微) - Huaren Microelectronics operates a fully integrated supply chain model, focusing on power semiconductors and smart sensors, with a recovery expected in the power semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has a significant market share in IGBT products, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, with plans to expand into new customer segments [11][12] - The report projects a steady increase in net profit for Huaren Microelectronics from 9.59 billion to 16.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio decline [13] Group 3: Zhongyuan Expressway (中原高速) - Zhongyuan Expressway focuses on the construction and operation of toll roads, with a projected revenue of 6.969 billion CNY in 2024, where toll income constitutes approximately 63.98% [15][16] - The company has a young asset structure with an average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, indicating potential for value reassessment [16][18] - The report anticipates net profits to grow from 10.02 billion to 11.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a favorable PE ratio [18] Group 4: Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) - Dekang Agriculture is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a platform and technology-driven enterprise, aiming to create a "value symbiosis" ecosystem [5][22] - The company has demonstrated significant profitability advantages, with a projected average income of 770,000 CNY per modern pig farm in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 48% [29][30] - The report forecasts Dekang's net profit to reach 36 billion CNY by 2027, with a PE ratio of 7.69, reflecting its strong growth potential in the agricultural sector [30]

金十数据6月26日讯，Shore Capital分析师杰米·默里表示，北约成员国在周三举行的年度峰会上达成的 新的国防支出目标，标志着欧洲国防股所经历的情绪驱动上涨行情达到顶峰。北约国家设定了一个新目 标，即到2035年将各自GDP的3.5%用于国防，并再将1.5%用于与安全相关的事项。默里表示，从此次 峰会开始，欧洲国防股的表现将由基本面驱动。他补充称，北约的支出激增为国防企业创造了强劲的增 长环境。 分析师：北约新国防支出目标标志着欧洲国防股上涨行情达到顶峰 ...

Group 1 - 11 industries experienced net inflows of main funds, with the communication industry leading at 21.57 billion yuan [1] - The food and beverage, and transportation industries also saw significant inflows of 3.21 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively [1] - The computer industry had the highest net outflow of main funds, totaling 50.62 billion yuan, followed by non-bank financials, electric equipment, automotive, electronics, and defense industries, each exceeding 20 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Six stocks had net inflows exceeding 3 billion yuan, with Chutianlong receiving 6.34 billion yuan, leading to a rapid rise and subsequent halt in trading [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang saw a net inflow of 5.5 billion yuan, with expectations of significant market share in the 2024 global 800G optical module market [2] - 85 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with BYD and Dongfang Caifu facing substantial outflows of 19.48 billion yuan and 17.16 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 43.45 billion yuan, with only the banking sector showing a net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - High Weida had a net inflow of 66.27 million yuan, focusing on providing comprehensive technology services for financial institutions [3] - BYD, Zhongbing Hongjian, and Dongfang Caifu had the largest net outflows at the close, each exceeding 1 billion yuan [3]

6月26日，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数早盘探底回升，随后快速回落，之后再度回升，午后震荡回落。截至收盘，上证指数报3448.45点， 跌0.22%，成交额6030.95亿元；深证成指报10343.48点，跌0.48%，成交额9800.83亿元；创业板指报2114.43点，跌0.66%，成交额5101.82亿元；科创50指数 报989.97点，跌0.57%，成交额307.35亿元。沪深两市合计成交15831.78亿元，成交额较上一交易日减少196.1亿元。 银行、国防军工等行业走强新通联、*ST亚振均5连板 盘面上来看，行业板块、概念跌多涨少。其中，银行、国防军工、通信、石油石化、计算机等行业涨幅靠前；油气设服、数字货币、海洋经济、海工装备、 跨境支付等概念走势活跃。汽车、医药生物、保险、美容护理、钢铁、电力设备、证券、食品饮料等行业跌幅居前；共享经济、人脑工程、创新药、轮毂电 机、重组蛋白、稀土永磁、化妆品、AI眼镜等概念走势较弱。涨停个股主要集中在计算机、国防军工、汽车、化工、电子等行业。 个股涨跌情况，截至收盘，沪深两市合计1520只个股上涨，3446只个股下跌，平盘个股176只，停牌的个 ...

近期，海洋经济政策利好频出，发展势头强劲。 6月26日，广东省召开全省海洋经济工作会议。作为全国海洋经济发展的"领头雁"，广东海洋生产总值已连续30年位居全国首位。2024年，广东海洋生产总 值突破2万亿元大关，约占全国海洋生产总值的1/5。在"十四五"规划收官之年，广东正以新质生产力重塑海洋经济版图——传统产业升级焕新，新兴产业集 群成势，更前瞻布局深海矿产、可燃冰开发、海水制氢等未来产业。 6月25日，《上海市海洋产业发展规划（2025—2035）（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。根据总体布局，上海将进一步筑牢两大海洋产业发展核。打造长兴 岛海洋产业发展核和临港新片区海洋产业发展核。到2030年，船舶与海工装备产业增加值超450亿元，大型LNG运输船本土化率提升到85%以上，基本建成 原创技术策源和绿色智能引领的世界级船舶与海洋工程装备产业体系。 从"向海而生"到"向海图强" 海洋经济是拓展全球经济发展空间的必然选择。 根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）发布的《2030年的海洋经济》报告，当前全球海洋经济产值已突破2.5万亿美元大关，预计至2030年，这一数字将攀升至 3万亿美元，届时海洋经济规模将可媲美全球 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined on June 26, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.48% to 10343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.66% to 2114.43 points [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 158.29 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 19.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Market Performance - The market experienced a high and then a pullback throughout the day, with all core broad indices declining. The micro-cap index and dividend index led the gains, while the Sci-Tech 100 and Shenzhen Innovation 100 indices were the biggest losers [2] - Over 3600 stocks in the market declined, indicating poor overall performance [2] Sector Performance - The banking, communication, and national defense sectors saw gains, while the automotive, non-bank financial, and pharmaceutical sectors experienced declines [5] - The banking sector rose by 1.0%, with a 5-day increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 16.9% [6] Concept Themes - The electronic ID, domestic aircraft carriers, and military information technology sectors saw increases, while sectors like photolithography machines, shared bicycles, and cell immunotherapy experienced declines [7] Key Industry Insights - The banking sector is seeing a recovery in institutional investor allocations, with significant increases in passive fund sizes and stable holdings from active funds. The demand for stable return equity assets from insurance capital is also increasing [8] - The macro policies and micro data are indicating a reduction in sector risk positions, which may help investors re-evaluate the net assets of banks, driving industry valuation upward in 2025 [8]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%. Several computer sector ETFs saw increases, including the Cloud 50 ETF (560660.SH) which rose by 1.64% and the Cloud Computing Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF (517390.SH) which increased by 1.05%. Conversely, multiple pharmaceutical and biotechnology ETFs declined, with the Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380.SH) down by 2.11% and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug ETF (159622.SZ) down by 2.03% [1][2]. - The total scale of stock ETFs has returned to over 3 trillion yuan, with the number of stock ETFs reaching 975 and a total net asset value of approximately 3.05 trillion yuan, accounting for 70.76% of the entire ETF market [1][2]. Market Overview - On June 26, the three major indices collectively fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2114.43 points. The highest intraday points were 3462.75, 10440.73, and 2142.21 respectively. The Nikkei 225, CSI 300, and CSI A500 ranked higher in performance, with daily changes of 1.65%, -0.35%, and -0.36% respectively [3]. Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, banking, telecommunications, and defense industries ranked higher with daily increases of 1.01%, 0.77%, and 0.55% respectively. In contrast, the automotive, non-bank financial, and pharmaceutical sectors lagged behind with declines of -1.37%, -1.2%, and -1.05% respectively. Over the past five trading days, non-bank financial, computer, and defense industries showed strong performance with increases of 7.69%, 6.15%, and 4.75% respectively [6]. ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs was analyzed based on their scale and daily changes. Commodity ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 0.11%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decrease of -0.72% [8]. - The top five performing ETFs today included the Communication Equipment ETF (159583.SZ), Cloud 50 ETF (560660.SH), and Gold Stock ETF (159322.SZ), with returns of 1.83%, 1.64%, and 1.44% respectively [10]. Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The trading volume of various ETF categories was reported, with the top three stock ETFs by trading volume being the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) at 3.746 billion yuan, A500 ETF (512050.SH) at 3.740 billion yuan, and A500 ETF by Harvest (159351.SZ) at 3.324 billion yuan [12].