利润增速有所回升，但改善基础有待夯实。 3月利润增速录得2.6%，较上月上行约3个百分点，主因基数走低 推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。 分 企业类型来看 ，私营和股份制企业利润改善明显，国企和外商企业均有回落。 从两年平均增速来看 ，仅私营 报 告 正 文 3 月收入、利润增速双双回升。 2025 年 3 月，规上工企营业收入录得 4.2% ，较上月有所回升。工企利 润增速录得 2.6% ，较上月上行约 3 个百分点，主因基数走低推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结 合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。从 工企利润 的构成 来看， 3 月工企的 营收增速有所回升，主因当月 生产大幅改善 。 同时 营收利润率 增速略有上升，共同带动 本月利润增速 上行 。本月成本费用较上月微升， 利润率增速上行或受到春节前置的一定扰动。 往后看 ， 随着外部冲 击影响逐渐显现，叠加去年同期基数走高 ， 利润或将再度承压 ， 静待稳增长政策进一步加码显效 。 此外，有三点值得关注。 一是企业经营压力仍较高 。工企产销率续创近十年来同期新低，而同时其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight recovery, indicating a mixed economic outlook with strengths in the manufacturing sector and weaknesses in the construction industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.5%, an increase from the previous value of 50.2% [2][16]. - The production index stands at 52.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from 52.5% [16]. - The new orders index has risen to 51.8% from 51.1%, while the new export orders index is at 49.0%, slightly up from 48.6% [16]. - The employment index is at 48.2%, down from 48.6%, indicating a contraction in employment [16]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, down from 51.0%, and the raw material inventory index is at 47.2%, slightly up from 47.0% [16]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 53.4%, down from 56.2% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown [5][10]. - The construction employment index has dropped to 41.4% from 45.6%, reflecting a significant decline in workforce [10]. - The new orders index for construction is at 43.5%, down from 46.8%, highlighting ongoing demand concerns [10]. - The basic raw materials PMI is at 49.3%, down from 49.8%, influenced by the weak construction sector [10]. Group 3: Economic Assessment - The comprehensive PMI index for Q1 is at 50.9%, higher than Q4 2023 and Q3 2024, but lower than Q4 2024 and Q1-Q2 2024 [3][13]. - The manufacturing sector shows strength, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing, with a PMI of 52% [4][9]. - The EPMI index for March is reported at 59.6%, indicating robust performance in the equipment manufacturing sector [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The economy is continuing to improve, with March manufacturing PMI at 50.5, service PMI at 50.3, and construction PMI at 53.4, all showing month-on-month increases [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.3 points from the previous month, while service PMI also rose by 0.3 points, and construction PMI saw a 0.7 point increase [1][4]. - The export order index has shown resilience, rising slightly, indicating external demand remains stable despite tariff pressures [1][5]. - Small enterprise PMI improved significantly by 3.3 points in March, reflecting better financial conditions [1][5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.3, indicating relative strength compared to previous periods [5]. Group 2: Recovery Characteristics - Despite some positive indicators, the overall data reflects a weak recovery, with manufacturing PMI lower than the previous year's value of 50.8 and below the historical average of 0.7 points for March [2][5]. - Service sector performance is also lagging, with March values lower than seasonal expectations, showing a cumulative decline compared to similar periods in previous years [5][6]. - The construction sector's performance is being hindered by insufficient support from infrastructure investments, as indicated by the lower demand from this sector [2][7]. Group 3: Price Indices and Employment - Both price indices showed a month-on-month decline, with expectations for March PPI indicating slight negative growth [10][12]. - Employment indicators in manufacturing, services, and construction sectors showed a decline in March, although the overall trend since September has been upward [12][13]. - The BCI enterprise hiring index also decreased, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring amid structural changes in labor demand [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the economic trajectory in 2025 may resemble that of 2016, with gradual improvements expected in consumer spending, local investment, and price indices [12][13]. - The overall economic growth is anticipated to experience fluctuations throughout the year, with a focus on validating the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth [14].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue and profit growth rates have both declined in the first two months of 2025, indicating a deterioration in profitability and operational pressure on companies [1][7][14]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In January-February 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8%, a decrease from the previous month [1][9]. - Profit growth recorded a decline of -0.3%, dropping over 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a two-year average growth rate also showing a downturn [1][7]. Production and Sales Performance - The production and sales rate of industrial enterprises reached a ten-year low for the same period, influenced by the early Spring Festival holiday [3][14]. - The asset-liability ratio of enterprises hit a ten-year high, indicating increased operational pressure [3][14]. Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory growth rate increased to 4.2%, while the actual inventory growth rate rose to 6.5%, reflecting a recovery in inventory levels [5][14]. - Certain midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries are still in the process of restocking, while industries like paper, chemicals, and synthetic fibers are actively reducing inventory [5][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer goods sector, particularly in automotive and home appliances, showed significant improvement, driven by government policies such as vehicle replacement subsidies [8][9]. - The mining industry experienced a substantial decline in profit growth, while the raw materials sector continued to recover, and consumer goods industries saw notable profit increases [7][8]. Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.11 yuan, with expenses at 8.56 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [9]. - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 4.53%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors [9].

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...