Supply and Demand - As of August 22, overseas PX operating rates have significantly rebounded, with domestic PX operating rates at 84.6% (+0.3%) and Asian PX operating rates at 76.3% (+2.2%) [2] - Demand has seen fluctuations, with Jia Tong's 3 million tons reducing load and then recovering, Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons restarting after a shutdown, and Yisheng Hainan's 2 million tons undergoing maintenance, while Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million tons faced unplanned shutdowns, leading to PTA operating rates at 72.9% (-3.1%) [2] Price Trends - On August 25, Asian PX prices increased by $2/ton to $859/ton, equivalent to a domestic price of 7046 RMB/ton, with PXN around $267/ton [1] - PX prices showed slight upward movement supported by cost, with October negotiations expanding to +8.5/+10 and November remaining in the +6/+8 range [1] Market Outlook - Domestic and international PX maintenance units are gradually restarting, leading to an expected increase in PX supply; however, the downstream PTA sector is experiencing many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees, resulting in a marginal weakening of PX supply-demand expectations [3] - Despite ongoing inventory reduction since Q2, PX absolute inventory pressure remains low, and the traditional demand peak season in September and October is expected to stabilize downstream polyester loads, providing strong support for demand [3] - Short-term PX price support is expected to remain strong due to rising oil prices, although rebound potential is constrained by weak oil prices and terminal demand expectations; a cautious bullish approach is recommended for short-term PX [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26% to 12441.07. The ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% to 2762.99, and the STAR Market 50 Index gained 3.20% to 1287.73. Overall, the market showed strong performance with a total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [6][7]. Company Tracking - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) reported a revenue of 148.63 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, with a net profit of 602 million yuan, down 29.82%. The company is focusing on new materials to offset the impact of falling oil prices [33][34]. - Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ) experienced a 14.31% decline in revenue to 5.964 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit drop of 28.31% to 763 million yuan, primarily due to decreased revenue from its traditional e-commerce segment [36][37]. - Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) reported a revenue of 44.864 billion yuan, up 7.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20.238 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.05% increase [39]. - Chongqing Bank (601963.SH) achieved a net profit of 3.394 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.73% increase year-on-year, with total assets reaching 983.365 billion yuan, up 22.01% [42][43]. - GoerTek (002241.SZ) announced plans to acquire 100% of Shanghai Aolai, enhancing its core competitiveness in optical components [44][46]. Industry Dynamics - The smart robotics sector is accelerating the commercialization of embodied intelligence, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [24][25]. - The 2025 China Computing Power Conference highlighted the rapid development of the computing power industry, showcasing a comprehensive results system that includes key reports and innovative achievements [27][29]. - The new policies in Shanghai aim to optimize housing fund withdrawal and loan policies, which may impact the real estate market positively [20][23]. Economic Dynamics in Hunan - Times New Materials (600458.SH) reported a revenue of 9.256 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 6.87% increase, with a net profit of 303 million yuan, up 36.66% [47]. - The large aircraft supply chain intelligent manufacturing base project has commenced in Hunan, with an investment of 5.1 billion yuan, focusing on the aircraft landing gear and related industries [49].

风险提示：炼化下游需求不及预期；能源原料价格剧烈波动；新材料项目建设不及预期等 最新盈利预测明细如下： 东海证券股份有限公司谢建斌,吴骏燕近期对恒力石化（600346）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司简评报 告：石化周期底部盈利暂时承压，"反内卷"下龙头优势有望凸》，给予恒力石化买入评级。 恒力石化 投资要点 2025上半年石化行业供需承压，公司业绩同比下降：2025年上半年，恒力石化实现营业总收入1038.87亿元， 同比下降7.69%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30.5亿元，同比下降24.08%。其中，第二季度的业绩压力更 为明显，营收同比减少13.5%，环比减少17.8%；归母净利润同比下滑46.8%，环比下滑51.3%。业绩下滑主要 受两方面因素影响：一是产品价差收窄。上半年，国际原油价格宽幅震荡，布伦特原油均价同比下跌约 15%，炼化企17.15业承受一定库存损失，同时，石化需求恢复缓慢，炼化产能仍在释放，周期底部产品价格 703,910价差承压。二是第二季度公司对乙烯装置进行了计划检修，短期内影响相关化工品的产量76.89%并推 高单位生产成本，对当季业绩造成了一定扰动。 经营性现金流净额同比大增 ...

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the completion of the Dasha Petrochemical integrated refining and chemical project in Ningbo, Zhejiang, marking it as the largest world-class petrochemical base in China, which is significant for enhancing the efficient conversion of heavy oil and improving the self-sufficiency of high-end chemical materials [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Dasha Petrochemical project is 21 billion yuan, making it the largest newly constructed petrochemical base project in China [1] - The core production units utilize domestically developed technology for direct cracking of heavy oil into chemical products, achieving a 100% domestic production rate [1] - The project is part of a broader strategy to develop seven world-class petrochemical bases across China, focusing on integrated refining projects and the production of basic petrochemical products [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The petrochemical industry in China is experiencing optimized spatial layout, forming industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim regions, with continuous improvement in technology and equipment levels [2] - The domestic production rate for large-scale refining and ethylene units has exceeded 95% and 80%, respectively, indicating a significant advancement in deep refining integration [2] - The Dasha Petrochemical project aims to enhance resource utilization efficiency and value along the industrial chain, transitioning from traditional fuel production to high-end chemical new materials [2] Group 3: Environmental Impact - The new production process of the core unit can reduce unit product energy consumption by over 30% compared to traditional methods, leading to a reduction of 200,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually [3] - This improvement significantly enhances the efficiency of heavy oil resource utilization and has profound implications for optimizing the structure of petrochemical raw materials and reducing carbon emissions from single units of olefin products [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both the pure benzene and styrene markets show characteristics of being "strong in the short - term and pressured in the medium - term." Pure benzene may face dual pressure from domestic production and imports after September, leading to a mid - term decline. Styrene's mid - term price increase is limited due to supply surplus [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On August 22, the styrene main contract closed up 1.22% at 7378 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 (- 29 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.13% at 6208 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On August 22, Brent crude oil closed at 63.5 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 67.7 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6090 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), an 8.5% month - on - month increase. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 million tons (-0.2 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Supply**: There will be styrene plant maintenance at the end of August, and supply may decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 million tons (+0.2 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+0.3%) [2] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS is 71.1% (+0%), and PS is 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous recovery [2] (2) Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short - term, it is relatively firm due to supply - side disturbances and low imports. However, after September, the market may decline due to domestic and import pressures [3] - **Styrene**: It shows short - term strength but medium - term pressure. Although there are some bright spots in demand, it cannot fully offset the pressure from new production capacity [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot have different changes, and the prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil have increased [6] - **Output and Inventory**: The outputs of styrene and pure benzene in China have increased, styrene port inventory has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and pure benzene port inventory has decreased [7] - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed. For example, the capacity utilization rate of styrene has increased, and the capacity utilization rates of EPS and PS among styrene downstream products have increased [8] 3. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced resistance, causing international oil prices to rise; global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains; India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides various data charts related to the prices, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and styrene [14][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices fluctuated upward this week due to cost support. International oil prices showed a slight upward - fluctuating trend, and the domestic PX devices operated stably. The demand side of PTA performed well, and the polyester industry maintained high - level operation. Also, news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea and petrochemical industry policy news boosted the PX price [9]. - PTA prices went up due to cost support and unplanned device shutdowns. The news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea pushed up the PX market, which was beneficial to PTA. A 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China shut down unexpectedly, leading to inventory reduction from August to September. Traders were reluctant to sell, and the spot basis strengthened. Meanwhile, the polyester industry gradually increased its operation rate in anticipation of the peak demand season [9]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines. - Crude oil: Geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and the market will mainly choose to wait and see. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. - PX: A total of 1.6 - million - ton PX devices in South China are planned to start operation successively this week. The rigid demand for spot purchases from newly - put - into - operation PTA devices will support PX demand. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China will restart, but it cannot offset the impact of the shutdown of a 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China. In addition, the low processing fees of PTA continue, and there may be other unplanned device overhauls. - Polyester: There is no clear plan for polyester device overhauls next week. As the traditional peak demand season approaches, manufacturers' tolerance for inventory increases, and the market supply pressure of polyester factories will be low in the future. - Weaving: Demand is marginally improving, and there are expectations for the peak season. - Overall: PX will fluctuate strongly in the range of 6,850 - 7,050 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate strongly in the range of 4,750 - 4,950 yuan/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Main Sections of the Report 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX Futures - The news of naphtha production cuts in South Korea boosted the PX futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PX main contract rose from 6,688 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 278 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.16%. The settlement price rose from 6,682 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.25%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 171 yuan/ton; the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,689.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.44% [15][17][19]. 3.1.2 PTA Futures - The unplanned device overhauls boosted the PTA futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PTA main contract rose from 4,716 yuan/ton to 4,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.20%. The settlement price rose from 4,708 yuan/ton to 4,864 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.34%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.55%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,744.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.35% [21][23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Device - Domestic PX device operation: Devices of many enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical are operating at different loads. Some devices have experienced load changes, shutdowns, and restarts. - Asian other PX device operation: Devices of enterprises in many countries and regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea have different operation statuses, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and load changes. - The domestic PX device operating rate has recovered. From August 18th to August 22nd, it was 85.22%, compared with 84.97% from August 11th to August 15th [31][33][35]. 3.2.2 PTA Device - Multiple PTA devices are under maintenance, including those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Fuhai Chuang. The planned maintenance period ranges from several months to more than a month. - Unplanned device overhauls have led to a slight price increase, and the weekly operating rate has decreased by 1.21% [38][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, international oil prices fluctuated this week. On August 22nd, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 63.66 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.86 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.37 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th. - Naphtha: The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.45 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 49.78 US dollars/ton. The supply in Asia has generally shrunk, and demand has been supported, leading to an increase in prices. - PX spot: The average weekly CFR price of PX in the Chinese main port was 843.36 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.55% compared with the previous period; the average weekly FOB price in South Korea was 819 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.61% compared with the previous period. The trading volume increased by 65,000 tons compared with the previous period [46][54][57]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The weekly average value of PXN was 265.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 2.13%. The PX - MX continued to rise, with a weekly average value of 135.50 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: From August 18th to August 22nd, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 202.93 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the previous week's average of 206.76 yuan/ton. It has not returned to the industry's average break - even point. - Inventory: As of August 22nd, the PTA social inventory was 4.468 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons compared with the previous week, with a change rate of - 0.58%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have increased. As of August 21st, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.71 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days [60][64][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The prices of some polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 18th to August 22nd was estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.17%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.45%. - Weaving: The downstream has replenished inventory due to price expectations. The inventory of filament yarn has continued to transfer downward. As of August 21st, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 13.80 days, 22.70 days, and 27.80 days respectively. The domestic weaving market has gradually started, but the export orders are still relatively dull. The profit of grey fabric production has been compressed, but it is expected to improve in the future [76][82][90].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant infrastructure projects and industrial upgrades in Dalian, Liaoning, emphasizing the city's commitment to high-quality development through modern infrastructure and strategic industrial transformation [1][2][3][4][5] Infrastructure Development - Dalian is constructing the first offshore artificial island airport in China, with all 2,256 foundation piles completed, the deepest being 99.6 meters [1] - In the first seven months of the year, Dalian has initiated 2,090 projects, marking a 31.5% increase year-on-year, with total investment up by 18.6% [1] - The Taiping Bay cooperation innovation zone is enhancing its public navigation infrastructure, with dredging operations equivalent to filling 20 standard football fields by 1 meter daily [2] Industrial Transformation - The Dalian Changxing Island petrochemical base is seeing a new materials project with over 12 billion yuan in total investment, aiming to fill domestic gaps and replace some imports [3] - Dalian is focusing on high-end equipment manufacturing, clean energy, and green petrochemicals, with over half of the projects resumed in the first half of the year being industrial projects [3] - The city's industrial output value increased by 12.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with high-tech industry investment up by 23.7% and manufacturing investment by 12.8% [3] Business Environment Optimization - Dalian has implemented a closed-loop service system for project management, significantly reducing the time for project approvals and enhancing business confidence [4][5] - The city has introduced 397 measures to optimize the business environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to over 1 million business entities established last year [5] - The "Five Ones" initiative provides strong support for major project construction, ensuring accountability and streamlined processes [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - **Standard Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Non - standard Basis**: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - **Production Profits**: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price**: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - **Import Profit**: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) is given a "buy" rating by Xinda Securities due to its potential despite facing challenges in the aromatics sector [1] - The company's performance in the first half of the year was significantly pressured, primarily due to the drag from the aromatics segment [1] - The report highlights the arrival of a competitive era, suggesting optimism regarding the performance elasticity of advanced private refining capacities [1] Group 2 - The report mentions several risks that could impact the company, including significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and potential delays in new capacity construction [1] - There are concerns regarding the oversupply of refining capacity and the slow recovery of downstream product profits [1] - The report also notes the increasing risks associated with "carbon neutrality" policies and the possibility of a slower-than-expected global economic recovery [1]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]