Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, with a focus on potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer demand during the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3]. Core Insights - Tariff expectations have eased, with indications from U.S. Treasury Secretary that there is no intention to decouple from China in textiles and related goods, leading to a significant reduction in tariff-related anxiety [3]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with leading manufacturers showing strong resilience and potential for market share growth, particularly companies like Zhejiang Ziran, Kairun, and Huali Group [3]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic consumption, particularly benefiting beauty and personal care brands, as well as discretionary consumer goods [3]. Industry Data Tracking Retail Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with clothing and cosmetics showing growth rates of 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively [17][18]. Raw Material Prices - The Cotlook A index for cotton increased by 0.9% to 13,899, while the Chinese cotton price index decreased by 0.4% to 14,122 [19]. - Polyester filament prices saw increases, with POY, FDY, and DTY rising by 4.0%, 3.1%, and 2.4% respectively [19]. Export Data - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports rose by 14.77% year-on-year in March, with footwear exports increasing by 15.77% [25]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies in high-growth sectors with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and 361°, and those with business adjustments leading to high elasticity, like Hailan Home and Semir Apparel [6]. - Retail sector companies like Steady Medical and Dekang Oral are highlighted for their potential dual benefits from consumption boosts and valuation adjustments [6].

2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业周报 看好/维持 纺织服装 纺织服装 纺服&零售周报:制造端有望企稳回升，关注 618 大促催化(2025. 5.5-5.11) ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/5/13 24/7/24 24/10/4 24/12/15 25/2/25 25/5/8 纺织服装 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<纺服&零售周报：美护品牌 Q1 表现 亮眼，个护景气度向上(2025.4. 28- 5.4)>>--2025-05-06 <<稳健医疗 24 年报及 25Q1 财报点 评：消费品业务加速成长，核心品类 增速亮眼>>--2025-04-29 <<健盛集团 24 年财报点评：业绩符 合预期，期待无缝利润弹性释放>>-- 2025-04-28 证券分析师：郭彬 电话： E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 报告摘要 本周核心观点：1）关税预期缓和：根据商务部新闻发布，5 月 10 日 上午中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，中共中央政治局委员、国 务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人。5 ...

Group 1 - In April 2023, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in Guangdong decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, with the month-on-month decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 0.1% in the previous month, indicating a change of 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a decline of 0.9% in the previous month, resulting in a difference of 1.2 percentage points [2] - Within food prices, pork prices decreased by 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Non-food prices shifted from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, influenced by increased travel demand during the Qingming Festival and the upcoming May Day holiday, as well as large exhibitions like the Canton Fair [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 2.7 billion by issuing 4.31 million shares at a price of HKD 630 per share, which will be used primarily for expanding and optimizing its store network [7] - The company has completed the expansion of 12 stores and the renovation of 7 stores since its listing, indicating a strong focus on enhancing its retail presence [7] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 19.59 billion, RMB 28.40 billion, and RMB 36.92 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 130.3%, 45.0%, and 30.0% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 3.50 billion, RMB 5.30 billion, and RMB 7.19 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 137.4%, 51.7%, and 35.6% [6][8] - The company is positioned as a leader in the traditional gold market, leveraging high-quality products, differentiated designs, and superior store service to enhance its luxury brand attributes [7] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately HKD 115.33 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of HKD 92.59 billion [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 38.13% [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 3.0 in 2023 to RMB 42.7 by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 27.5% in 2023, peaking at 47.1% in 2025 before declining to 36.1% by 2027 [6]

Group 1 - Jinguang Electric won a bid for a State Grid procurement project worth 66.6956 million yuan, accounting for 8.97% of the company's projected 2024 revenue [1] - Yian Technology's biodegradable magnesium bone fixation screws received acceptance from the National Medical Products Administration [1] - East China Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for clinical trials of HDM2005 for treating diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [1][2] Group 2 - New Hope reported April pig sales of 1.596 million heads, with revenue of 2.278 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.92% [3] - Yingfang Software received a government subsidy of 5.4 million yuan related to its earnings [4] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary's liraglutide raw material received acceptance from South Korea's MFDS [5] Group 3 - Tianshan Co. announced that its controlling shareholder pledged not to reduce holdings for 12 months [6] - Huaren Pharmaceutical's subsidiary obtained a medical device registration certificate for a disposable sliding mat [8] - Hanma Technology reported April truck sales of 1,127 units, a year-on-year increase of 56.96% [9] Group 4 - Huatai Co. successfully commissioned a 700,000-ton chemical wood pulp project [10] - Green Ecology's subsidiary won a bid for a tourism infrastructure project in Sanqingshan, with a bid amount of 238 million yuan [12] - Zhonghua Rock and Soil's subsidiary won a bid for the Urumqi Airport expansion project worth 181 million yuan [13] Group 5 - Aohua High-tech signed a contract for an optical system development worth 297 million yuan, representing 39.84% of its projected 2024 revenue [15] - Linglong Tire's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by 200 to 300 million yuan [17] - Tianbang Food reported April sales of 470,900 pigs, generating revenue of 691 million yuan [20] Group 6 - Weisheng Information won a project from State Grid Hebei Power Company worth 15.4587 million yuan [21] - Haon Automotive received a product designation letter from a leading new energy vehicle brand, with an estimated total revenue of 619 million yuan over the project's lifecycle [22] - Mingpu Optical Magnetic's subsidiary obtained a patent for an inductance testing machine [23] Group 7 - Dongni Electronics received a government subsidy of 3.82 million yuan, accounting for 33.17% of its projected 2024 net profit [24] - Xibu Animal Husbandry reported April fresh milk production of 3,024.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.47% [25] - Jianke Intelligent obtained multiple patent certificates and an international trademark registration [26] Group 8 - Roman Co. won a bid for a 100MW photovoltaic power station project worth 403 million yuan [26] - Chenguang Biological obtained several patent certificates, including one in Europe [26] - Hengxing Technology's subsidiary received a government subsidy of 2 million yuan [27] Group 9 - Guanshi Technology's executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 359,400 shares [28] - Softcom Power's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% [29] - Fuchuang Precision's major shareholder plans to increase its stake by 120 to 240 million yuan [29] Group 10 - Laofengxiang's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Jiushi Sports [31] - Xingye Silver Tin plans to issue up to 300 million USD in overseas bonds [32] - *ST Gongzhi faces delisting due to financial report issues [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% [1]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, up 7%, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. - Fashion jewelry product revenue is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold product revenue is projected to be 2.9 billion, an increase of 30% [2]. User Base and Digital Management - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 26.1% in 2025, followed by 25.9% in 2026 and 27.2% in 2027 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [8][21]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% year-on-year [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, a 7% increase, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from fashion jewelry products is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold products are projected to generate 2.9 billion, a 30% increase [2]. - The company has successfully integrated cultural elements with modern fashion in its product offerings, creating a strong market presence with unique designs [4]. User Base and Digital Strategy - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being post-80s, 90s, and 00s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][13] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure due to rising gold prices, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. Revenue for 2024 was 13.89 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and net profit was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, down 47.3%, and net profit was 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.4, 10.5, and 9.0 for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand matrix and channel structure to enhance growth potential, despite current challenges [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 138.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.10 billion yuan, down 23.2% [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 26.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.3%, and a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin gold products [5][6] Channel and Brand Strategy - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and brand matrix in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales channels, which have shown resilience. In 2024, the company opened 663 new stores, ending the year with a total of 5008 stores [6][7] - The brand strategy includes the rebranding of multiple brands and strengthening partnerships, such as "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure" and "Zhou Dasheng Classic" [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure due to rising gold prices, with revenue for 2024 expected to be 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.67 billion yuan, a significant decline of 47.3%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [4] - The company is expected to reshape its multi-brand positioning, which is anticipated to drive future growth momentum, with a reasonable current valuation [4] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 142.80 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 141.97 billion yuan [1] - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 16.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5% [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 15.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [7] - The company's EPS for 2025 is expected to be 1.05 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 12.4 times [4][7] Channel and Brand Strategy - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and brand matrix in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales channels [6] - In 2024, the company opened 663 new offline stores, bringing the total to 5,008, although the franchise channel faced challenges [6] - The company is actively working on its multi-brand positioning, including collaborations with "National Treasure" and strengthening its brand matrix [6]