盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025年8月5日 市场降波 观点：波段交易，等待布局机会 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货全天震荡上行，斜率不算陡峭，但波动同样比较平稳。午后盘中转头回落，涨幅有所收窄，最终除 TS2509外，其余合约均收涨。期现两端表现一致，长端均强于短端，5Y以上现券收益率均小幅回落约 0.5bp，而短端则基本持平。此外，日内12合约普遍强于09，跨期价差向下小幅修正。公开市场到期4492亿 元，央行新做1607亿，日内净回笼2885亿元。资金利率保持平稳，隔夜匿名和DR001加权保持在1.31%附 近，非银尾盘资金需求增加，交易所隔夜下午逐步走高至1.54%附近。总体来看，流动性保持平稳。 日内消息： 1.央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。《意见》加强金融服务能力和长效机制建 设，促进保持制造业合理比重投入。健全金融机构服务制造业的内部机制安排，单列制造业信贷计划，针对 细分行业和企业成长阶段特点制定差异化授信政策。 行情研判： 债市日内稳步走强，结合周一的小幅上涨，目前对增值税恢复利好老券的逻辑的计价是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - Overnight, influenced by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the U.S. stocks soared due to the trading of economic expectation repair, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 1.33%. Affected by this information, the morning review suggested that the sentiment might be optimistically driven, which was basically verified by today's stock market trend. At the industry level, the robot concept has been strong in recent days, and the financial and real - estate sectors also led the rise. At the futures index level, after the small - cap futures index has been strong for many days, today's trading data shows that IF and IM tend to have long - position additions, while IC and IM tend to have short - position closures, and the subsequent strength may switch. In terms of trend, the previous view is maintained. Due to the lack of obvious positive pull, it is difficult to have continuous rises, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate around the current central level [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued to rise, and the small - cap stocks maintained their strength. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 97.31 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with increasing volume, while IC and IM rose with decreasing volume, and the sentiment of large - cap futures indexes was positive [3] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in July rose to 52.6, the highest since May last year. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The bank also said that if the next employment report shows a further rise in the unemployment rate, the Fed may cut interest rates by an additional 50 basis points [4] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.84 | 8.0521 | 0.3421 | 25.564 | 0.1005 | | IH | 0.83 | 4.0737 | 0.2218 | 9.2725 | 0.066 | | IC | 0.66 | 6.5859 | - 1.1728 | 21.5144 | - 0.1806 | | IM | 0.90 | 15.5305 | - 3.3934 | 32.9938 | - 0.711 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.96 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.59 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 3.12 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 15960.81 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 975.31 | [7]

Core Insights - The main contract for soda ash (contract 2509) closed at a price increase of 2.01% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 993,600 lots and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 109,594 lots [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all soda ash contracts reached 2,509,000 lots, with an increase of 58,500 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 1,098,100 lots, a decrease of 61,200 lots from the previous day, while short positions totaled 1,400,800 lots, a decrease of 45,600 lots [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 105,247), CITIC Futures (total position 83,012), and Dongzheng Futures (total position 69,631) [1]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 191,270), CITIC Futures (total position 178,585), and Yong'an Futures (total position 178,125) [1]. Changes in Positions - The top two long position increases were from Zheshang Futures (holding 10,995, increase of 2,285) and Yong'an Futures (holding 19,138, increase of 1,700) [1]. - The top three long position decreases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 26,779, decrease of 11,134), Guotai Junan (holding 51,087, decrease of 9,304), and Guangfa Futures (holding 17,311, decrease of 8,281) [1]. - The top three short position increases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 51,092, increase of 1,111), Guotou Futures (holding 10,925, increase of 991), and CITIC Jiantou (holding 11,792, increase of 717) [1]. - The top three short position decreases were from Guotai Junan (holding 97,325, decrease of 22,495), Yong'an Futures (holding 73,093, decrease of 10,406), and Guangfa Futures (holding 10,463, decrease of 6,574) [1].

Core Insights - The main contract for the 30-year Treasury futures closed at 2509 on August 5, with a slight increase of 0.06% and a trading volume of 100,100 contracts, indicating a net long position among the top 20 holders with a difference of 3,543 contracts [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts was 120,200, which is a decrease of 3,460 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 holders had a total long position of 125,900 contracts, down by 3,184 contracts, while the total short position was 125,700 contracts, a decrease of 1,942 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (27,833 contracts), Guotai Junan (17,150 contracts), and Ping An Futures (9,487 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by CITIC Futures (16,180 contracts), Guotai Junan (15,641 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (10,917 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 holders, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Zhongtai Futures (2,126 contracts, up by 467), CITIC Futures (16,480 contracts, up by 347), and GF Futures (4,094 contracts, up by 96) [1][3]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by Guotai Junan (10,876 contracts, down by 2,125), Guojin Futures (2,552 contracts, down by 638), and Hongyuan Futures (6,986 contracts, down by 367) [1][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Information - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5168.00, showing a -0.34709% change from the previous day [3] - The discount to US dollars was 628.64 on August 4, 2025 [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 682, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 757 on August 4, 2025 [3] Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Canadian Lion was -342.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -61.65 on August 4, 2025 [4] - The port US - dollar price of Canadian Golden Lion was 780, Canadian Lion was 730, and Chilean Yinxing was 720 [4] - The RMB price in Shandong area of Canadian Golden Lion was 6450, Canadian Lion was 5635, and Chilean Yinxing was 5850 [4] Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong area [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from July 30 to August 4, 2025 [4] - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper showed some positive changes from July 30 to August 4, 2025, with changes of 0.1286, 0.1121, 0.0975, and 0.1528 respectively [4] Pulp Price Difference Information - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper all showed a decreasing trend [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The mid - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, although the multi - short game is intense, the bulls are mainly in control. Precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rebound. The support for London gold is 3340, with resistance at 3400 and 3450; the support for London silver is 37, with resistance at 38. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metal market stopped falling and rebounded. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 781.42 yuan/gram, up 1.36%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 1.3%. The main reason for the price increase was the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI and import - export data on Tuesday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy; on Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. [南华观点] - The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the multi - short game is fierce, but the bulls control the rhythm. The precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rise. For London gold, the support level is 3340, and the resistance levels are 3400 and 3450; for London silver, the support level is 37, and the resistance level is 38. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - SHFE gold main continuous contract: 781.42 yuan/gram, up 10.7 yuan, or 1.39%. SGX gold TD: 775.55 yuan/gram, up 8.37 yuan, or 1.09%. CME gold main contract: 3428.6 dollars/ounce, up 12.6 dollars, or 0.37%. SHFE silver main continuous contract: 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 121 yuan, or 1.36%. SGX silver TD: 8999 yuan/kilogram, up 111 yuan, or 1.25%. CME silver main contract: 37.445 dollars/ounce, up 0.34 dollars, or 0.92%. SHFE - TD gold: 5.87 yuan/gram, up 2.33 yuan, or 65.82%. SHFE - TD silver: 40 yuan/kilogram, up 10 yuan, or - 37.5%. CME gold - silver ratio: 91.5636, down 0.4995, or - 0.54% [5]. [库存持仓表] - SHFE gold inventory: 35889 kilograms, up 144 kilograms, or 0.4%. CME gold inventory: 1206.6166 tons, up 2.426 tons, or 0.2%. SHFE gold position: 217696 lots, down 1072 lots, or - 0.49%. SPDR gold position: 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons, or 0.18%. SHFE silver inventory: 1174.273 tons, down 9.684 tons, or - 0.82%. CME silver inventory: 15757.0987 tons, down 1.8489 tons, or - 0.01%. SGX silver inventory: 1368.435 tons, up 56.415 tons, or 4.3%. SHFE silver position: 371051 lots, up 5858 lots, or 1.6%. SLV silver position: 15021.873699 tons, down 34.7912 tons, or - 0.23% [14]. [股债商汇总览] - US Dollar Index: 98.757, up 0.0664, or 0.07%. US Dollar to Chinese Yuan: 7.1842, down 0.0093, or - 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44173.64 points, up 585.06 points, or 1.34%. WTI crude oil spot: 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or - 2.79%. LmeS copper 03: 9708.5 dollars/ton, up 75.5 dollars, or 0.78%. 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.22%, down 0.01%, or - 0.24%. 10 - year US real interest rate: 1.85%, down 0.05%, or - 2.63%. 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread: 0.54%, up 0.11%, or 25.58% [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an August 4th risk management daily report on nickel and stainless steel, written by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [4] - **Procurement Management**: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [4] Group 4: Core Contradictions - For nickel, the macro - level sentiment has faded. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore arriving at ports is stable, with a loosening price expectation. The August premium adjustment in Indonesia is limited. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and iron mills have a certain price - holding sentiment. The new energy salt factories have some support, and the demand of some downstream precursor factories has increased [5] - For stainless steel, the spot price has increased, and the transaction has improved. Some steel mills have adjusted their production schedules in August, with some resuming production for the peak seasons in September and October. Attention should be paid to downstream demand trends [5] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction - Pure nickel inventory is high - Nickel ore seasonal inventory rises, weakening the bottom support - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [7] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - The latest value of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The LME nickel 3M is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.05% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 120,522 lots, and the open interest is 95,467 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 21,170 tons, with a - 0.95% month - on - month change [7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 209,082 tons, unchanged; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [9] Stainless Steel Market - The latest value of the stainless steel main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 122,249 lots, and the open interest is 87,475 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, with a - 0.06% month - on - month change [8] - The stainless steel social inventory is 966,200 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous period [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Index closing prices and changes: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.37% at 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.24%, the Northbound 50 Index declined 0.23%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 1.06%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.13%, the Wind A500 Index dropped 0.45%, and the CSI A500 Index declined 0.44% [4][11]. - Index trading volume: A - share trading volume was 1.62 trillion yuan for the day, compared to 1.96 trillion yuan the previous day [11]. - Index performance details: The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2754.1302, down 0.79%, with a trading volume of 940.74 billion yuan and a turnover of 48.96 billion; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4054.9286, down 0.51%, with a trading volume of 3596.85 billion yuan and a turnover of 196.22 billion; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6670.472, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 3490.71 billion yuan and a turnover of 232.48 billion [4]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume: The trading volume of Shanghai 50 index options was 3.80 million contracts (2.58 million for call options and 1.22 million for put options, PCR = 0.47), the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 10.99 million contracts (6.79 million for call options and 4.21 million for put options, PCR = 0.62), and the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 22.65 million contracts (12.52 million for call options and 10.13 million for put options, PCR = 0.81) [4]. - Option open interest: The open interest of Shanghai 50 index options was 7.30 million contracts (4.70 million for call options and 2.60 million for put options, PCR = 0.55), the open interest of CSI 300 index options was 20.18 million contracts (12.01 million for call options and 8.17 million for put options, PCR = 0.68), and the open interest of CSI 1000 index options was 27.13 million contracts (14.07 million for call options and 13.06 million for put options, PCR = 0.93) [4]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - Shanghai 50 volatility: Historical volatility and current value comparison are presented, along with the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [11]. - CSI 300 volatility: Historical volatility and current value comparison are shown, as well as the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [11]. - CSI 1000 volatility: Historical volatility and current value comparison are provided, along with the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report After two consecutive days of significant corrections last week, the sentiment in the stock market has recovered today. However, although the market has moved upward, the trading volume remains in a contraction state. The leading industries are mainly related to military (Pakistan's defense layout information), robotics (mass production of robot orders and accelerated corporate financing), and precious metals (due to the unexpected US non - farm data, the US dollar index declined, and the risk - aversion sentiment increased), all driven by short - term information changes, and their sustainability is expected to be limited. From the perspective of stock index futures indicators, the market shows short - sellers leaving, which mainly reflects that investors believe the possibility of short - term corrections has decreased. Without obvious bullish factors, the possibility of a continuous upward trend is low. It is expected that the stock index will fluctuate within the week, so it is not advisable to chase high in operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review The stock index generally moved upward today, with small - cap stocks showing stronger performance. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 99.8 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all stock index futures increased in price with reduced volume, indicating that the market was mainly driven by short - covering [2]. Important Information - HSBC raised its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [3]. Strategy Recommendation It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.42 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.71 | 3.8519 | 7.7587 | 18.9239 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.2338 | - 1.2314 | - 1.1855 | - 2.3743 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.4635 | 9.2065 | 21.695 | 33.7048 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.7234 | - 0.4835 | - 0.3294 | - 0.1172 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.66 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.46 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.08 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 14985.50 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 998.00 | [6]