Report Title Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report, July 9, 2025 - Spot Price of Taicang Delivery Goods Weakens [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current cost of logs has support, but the spot digestion ability may face certain pressure, and the log futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: With high log import volume and high inventory, and concerns about price drops, enterprises with long - spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short - spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions in Delivery - The first - month delivery of the 07 contract is in progress. Manual and intelligent measurement are randomly matched. The intelligent measurement has a larger over - measurement rate, estimated at a 2% range. The delivery efficiency has gradually improved, with manual measurement achieving a pre - measurement mechanism, increasing the delivery rate to about 40 - 45 minutes per lot. The actual delivery cost at Taicang Xinhai Wharf is 7 yuan per cubic meter. Sellers may face friction costs due to non - standard log shapes, which can be reduced by paying sorting fees or accepted as random costs. If the goods are of good quality, the random cost can be less than 10 yuan per cubic meter. Buyers without direct processing ability need to sell the received logs at a discount to processing plants [3]. Spot Market - The price of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang dropped by 20 yuan to 750 yuan per cubic meter. The latest CFR quote has a maximum of 117 US dollars, increasing import costs, but the possibility of weakening ocean freight makes the sustainability of this quote uncertain. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume remains high. Although the real estate market is weak, furniture consumption provides support, and the national subsidy policy boosts the demand for pallets in related fields. The ongoing delivery process allows downstream processing plants to continuously absorb delivery goods for replenishment. If the absorption willingness weakens in the future, the spot price may continue to decline. Overseas shipment volume shows no obvious weakening, and there is still pressure on future arrivals [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the continuous increase in foreign shipment volume [8]. Spot and Basis - The report provides spot prices, price changes, spot over - measurement conversions,主力 contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, and basis calculations for different log specifications in different ports on July 9, 2025. The formula for the converted basis is: Converted basis = Spot price after over - measurement (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [8][9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The imported volume of radiata pine in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 million cubic meters and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port inventory was 323 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 13 million cubic meters. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,926,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 85,000 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,093,911 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20,589 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 40%. - **Demand**: As of July 4, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 6.69 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 32.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.9 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 60.5%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.15 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. - **Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was - 73 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan. The import profit of spruce was - 38 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the high supply of pure benzene both domestically and overseas, the inventory at East China ports has increased, and the profit of pure benzene is lower than the same period in previous years. The supply of domestic pure benzene exceeds demand, and the increase in overseas pure benzene export this year further exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. Although the recent rise in international oil prices may support the cost side, in the short term, the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the upward space of BZ2603 futures may be restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of pure benzene 03, 04, 05, and 06 contracts are 6070 yuan/ton (up 139), 6080 yuan/ton (up 154), 6079 yuan/ton (up 151), and 6050 yuan/ton (up 132) respectively. The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 31,731 lots, and the open interest is 9,140 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6,866 yuan/ton, 4,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton (down 150), and 5,800 yuan/ton (down 20) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 5,975 yuan/ton (up 50) and 5,675 yuan/ton (up 40) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 717 US dollars/ton (up 5) and 730.5 US dollars/ton (up 3) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 72.04 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 586.5 US dollars/ton (up 9.5) [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14% (up 0.13), the weekly output is 43.33 tons (up 0.07), the port inventory is 17.7 tons (up 0.6), the production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton (down 118.2), and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton (up 76) [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 80.03% (down 0.05), the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (up 6.41), the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54% (down 0.46), the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24% (down 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3% (up 2) [2]. Industry News - The GDP scale of China in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan [2]. - From June 27 to July 3, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 7, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 17.4 tons, a decrease of 1.69% compared with the previous period and an increase of 480.00% year - on - year. BZ2603 rose 2.50% to close at 6,070 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

Report Overview - Report title: Nanhua Precious Metals Daily Report: Gold Down, Silver Stable [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but London gold has been range - bound since late April. In the short term, attention should be paid to the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market saw gold decline and silver remain stable. The tariff trade war situation became clearer before July 9, and the negotiation window was extended to August 1, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. COMEX gold 2508 closed at $3311 per ounce, down 0.95%; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.43%. COMEX silver 2509 closed at $36.925 per ounce, up 0.06%; SHFE silver 2510 closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22%. The US trade policy has drawn responses from many countries [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and 4.7% for a 25 - basis - point cut. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 34.3%, 62.8% for a 25 - basis - point cut, and 3% for a 50 - basis - point cut. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 946.51 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons to 14935.15 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1334.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons as of July 4 [3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Key events include the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes at 2:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem on the US economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, and a speech by 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly on the US economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday [4] Precious Metals Price Table - SHFE gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64%; CME gold main contract closed at $3311 per ounce, down 1.06%. SHFE silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.91%; CME silver main contract closed at $36.925 per ounce, down 0.04%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 89.6682, down 1.02% [7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 21,558 kilograms, up 0.48%; CME gold inventory was 1146.9974 tons, up 0.43%. SHFE gold positions were 179,131 lots, up 1.92%. SHFE silver inventory was 1334.731 tons, up 0.3%; CME silver inventory was 15487.4574 tons, down 0.07%. SHFE silver positions were 338,144 lots, up 47.35% [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 97.5101, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1803, up 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,406.36 points, down 0.94%. WTI crude oil spot was $67.93 per barrel, up 2.15%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, up 1.15% [23]

国债期货日报 2025年7月8日 反内卷 观点：波段思路，逢低入场 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘跳水，全天震荡下行跌幅深化，明显收跌。资金依旧宽松，盘前大额隔夜匿名资金1.3%，银行 间和交易所资金价格平稳。 日内消息： 1.国家发改委等七部门联合发布《关于加快推进普惠托育服务体系建设的意见》。其中提出，支持用人单位 利用存量土地或设施规划建设托育服务设施，在符合国土空间规划要求并确保安全的前提下，可暂不变更土 地用途。 行情研判： 反内卷成为国内资本市场全天的主线，"反内卷"逻辑下，大宗商品整体走强，A股全天持续走高，500指数成 分中大宗相关更多，中小盘日内明显强于大盘，领涨市场。受风险资产影响，债市在连续盘整后终于下跌， 也算是为反内卷做出贡献。 | | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-07 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-07 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

文章来源:新浪期货 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月08日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.22%,成交量8.44万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净多，差额头寸为586手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交9.09万手，比上一日新增3.13万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓12.29万手，比上一日减少117 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.50万手，比上一日减少2024手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓27092、国泰君安，总持仓19119、东证期货，总持仓12674；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓15487、银河期货，总持仓14674、中信期货，总持仓13424； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：平安期货、持仓5379、增仓938，国金期货、持仓3448、增仓671，宏源期货、持 仓4252、增仓371；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓3270、减仓-961，国泰君安、持仓14903、减仓-597，申银万国、持 仓1208、减仓-454； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓5884、增仓374，中信建投、持仓1327、增仓248 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, London gold has been trading in a range. For London gold, short - term support levels are at 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market was highly volatile. The U.S. stock market declined, while the U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index both rose. Bitcoin fell, crude oil rose, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.1%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 61.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 39.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14868.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 1330.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's economic data is relatively light. The main focus is on the determination of U.S. tariff rates on other countries before the end of the U.S. reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9. Key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday at 12:30, the Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday at 2:00, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly on the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday. Also, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will visit Japan this week [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.74%. SGX gold TD is at 767.8 yuan per gram, down 0.49%. CME gold main contract is at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.31%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.53%. SGX silver TD is at 8860 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28%. CME silver main contract is at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.53%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.5 yuan per gram, down 36.25%. SHFE - TD silver is at 12 yuan per kilogram, up 126.67%. CME gold - to - silver ratio is 90.5901, up 0.58% [6][7]. 5. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory is 21456 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1142.0304 tons, down 0.19%. SHFE gold position is 175760 lots, up 0.41%. SPDR gold position is 947.66 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory is 1330.695 tons, down 0.68%. CME silver inventory is 15499.0707 tons, down 0.2%. SGX silver inventory is 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position is 229481 lots, down 8.47%. SLV silver position is 14868.735488 tons, unchanged [17][18]. 6. Other Market Data - The U.S. dollar index is at 97.5464, up 0.58%. The U.S. dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1741, up 0.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44828.53 points, up 0.77%. WTI crude oil spot is at $66.5 per barrel, down 0.75%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9852 per ton, down 1%. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.35%, up 1.16%. The 10 - year U.S. real interest rate is 2.05%, up 1.49%. The 10 - 2 year U.S. Treasury yield spread is 0.47%, down 9.62% [23].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [3][4]. Key Points by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Important News - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, resumption of production in Myanmar, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are all 263,520 yuan/ton, 263,520 yuan/ton, and 263,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars (-0.1%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, down 0.02 (-0.25%) [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan (-0.15%). The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-33.33%). The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates are 254,800 yuan/ton and 258,800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 400 yuan (-0.16% and -0.15% respectively). The prices of various types of solder bars and lead - free solder also show declines [8][11]. 4. Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 17,666.1 yuan/ton, down 2,311.69 yuan (15.06%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively [13]. 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,868 tons, up 61 tons (0.9%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,343 tons, up 105 tons (2.48%), and in Shanghai is 1,600 tons, down 44 tons (-2.68%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,085 tons, down 25 tons (-1.18%) [18].

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