Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in February, with indices likely to perform better post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels [1][2] - The lack of clear catalysts before the Spring Festival is anticipated to reduce market activity, while policy catalysts are expected to accelerate after the holiday due to the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Fundamental Analysis - The period of January to February is characterized as a data vacuum, with market focus on marginal improvements in performance driven by industrial changes [2] - Key sectors include cyclical price increases, particularly in semiconductors and AI-related products, which are expected to maintain a positive trend [2][5] Liquidity and Capital Supply - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the holiday and financing likely to rebound afterward [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment through targeted measures, despite some liquidity tightening from government bond issuances [4] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical and technology sectors, with increased attention on discretionary consumption as the Spring Festival approaches [3][6] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic), basic chemicals, and social services [3][6] Performance Trends - In January, high-performing sectors included certain resource products, public utilities, and information technology, with notable price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6] - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for certain sectors, particularly in resource products and TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) driven by AI [5][6]

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

商品价格大涨推动下，开年以来，A股有色金属行业成为最闪耀的板块。数据显示，上周五（1月30 日）暴跌之前，有色金属板块个股1月平均涨幅39.9%，远超全A个股平均涨幅8.18%。有16只个股 的月涨幅超过50%，其中，湖南白银（002716.SZ）单月8次涨停，累计涨超200%，白银有色 （601212.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）也在1月股价翻倍，兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、西部黄 金（601069.SH）等个股涨幅超80%。 2026.02. 01 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 1月，A股市场以有色金属为代表的分化表现收尾，申万有色金属行业以22.59%的月度涨幅高居榜 首，成为开年最亮眼的主线。然而，有色行情在1月30日急转直下，板块内个股大面积跌停。与此同 时，开年以来持续飙升的国际黄金、白银，在当日出现史诗级暴跌，跌幅均创近40年以来最大日跌 幅。 这场由资金疯狂追捧黄金、白银现货，传导至股票市场催生的行情，在创下近十年同期最高涨幅纪录 后迅速释放情绪，背后折射出市场对极端估值与盈利兑现之间的重新权衡。随着2月行情拉开帷幕， 资金从"疯抢黄金股"转 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the importance of "rebalancing" in the investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the dual focus on AI technology, overseas equipment, and global pricing resources as the main consensus among institutional investors [1][2] - The report indicates that the share of technology and overseas sectors in A-share profits (excluding finance) is approaching 40% by Q4 2025, suggesting a significant shift in the profit structure towards high-end technology and manufacturing, which is expected to reshape the A-share profit landscape and drive a new upward cycle in 2026-2027 [1][2] - The report outlines a transition from "new triumphing over old" in 2025 to "new and old dancing together" in 2026, where "new" refers to AI technology moving downstream and "old" refers to traditional industries stabilizing and growing through overseas business [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that global pricing resources, particularly gold, are experiencing a shift in asset allocation due to narratives of de-globalization and financialization, with a notable increase in trading sentiment driven by interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [2][3] - It is noted that the pricing of resource commodities is becoming increasingly differentiated, with financial attributes of resource pricing outperforming those based on commodity attributes [2][3] - The report stresses the need to be cautious of the assumption that the dollar will remain weak throughout 2026, as there may be a return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes, making supply-demand fundamentals more critical for resource price increases [3] Group 3 - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a significant increase in institutional holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reductions were noted in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and power equipment [9][10] - The report identifies a divergence in institutional investment in the AI industry chain, with a decrease in holdings in sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings visibility, such as optical modules, saw increases [10][11] - The report also notes that institutional investors are increasingly favoring resource commodities that benefit from price increases, particularly in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards these areas [10][11]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's policies may lead to a stronger US dollar, impacting global asset pricing, with a notable reaction seen in precious metals [4][12][17] - The report highlights three main channels through which exchange rates affect equity markets: corporate cost and profit elasticity, capital flow and asset pricing, and macroeconomic expectations and risk appetite [20][21][22] - The report suggests that during the current phase of the global dollar cycle, Chinese equity assets are in a favorable revaluation window due to the transition to a mild appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital inflows [4][19][60] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a significant negative correlation between the US dollar and the S&P 500 index, where a weaker dollar often corresponds with a rising stock market [25][27][33] - The report discusses the unique "devaluation—foreign capital inflow—transaction expansion—valuation increase" model in Japan, where yen depreciation enhances export competitiveness and EPS for Japanese companies [39][42] - In the Eurozone, the report notes a weak coupling between the euro and European stock markets, with euro depreciation benefiting export-oriented sectors but being diluted by internal economic disparities [47][53] Group 3 - The report identifies specific industries that benefit from RMB appreciation, including aviation, paper manufacturing, basic chemicals, semiconductors, and banks, due to reduced import costs and improved financial conditions [21][22][60] - The analysis of Brazil's IBOVESPA index shows a high correlation with the Brazilian real, indicating that currency fluctuations significantly impact asset pricing in emerging markets [54][56][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of incorporating exchange rate logic into asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of RMB appreciation and its effects on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [59][63]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge in the non-ferrous metals sector in January, with a monthly increase of 22.59%, marking the highest growth in nearly a decade. However, this trend reversed dramatically on January 30, leading to widespread declines in the sector and a historic drop in gold and silver prices, reflecting a market reassessment of extreme valuations and profit realizations [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an average increase of 39.9% in January, significantly outperforming the overall A-share average of 8.18%. Notably, 16 stocks in this sector had monthly gains exceeding 50%, with Hunan Silver achieving over 200% growth [2][3]. - The sector's performance was driven by soaring international precious metal prices, with gold prices rising from $4,300 to $5,600 per ounce, a gain of over 30% in less than a month, and silver prices increasing by approximately 72% [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Adjustments - Following the extreme price increases, a sharp correction occurred on January 30, with gold and silver experiencing their largest single-day declines in 40 years, leading to a significant sell-off in the A-share non-ferrous sector [3][4]. - The market's focus shifted towards sectors with visible earnings potential and improved supply-demand structures as funds flowed out of the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6]. Future Investment Focus - As the sentiment in the non-ferrous sector cooled, attention turned to industries with clear earnings visibility and favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as AI applications and traditional sectors like chemicals and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from price recovery [5][7][8]. - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area for future investment, with expectations of significant developments in AI applications and semiconductor sectors, driven by major tech companies [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from the bottom [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenwan Chemical Index declining by 0.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.94%. However, price increases were noted in various products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which accelerated export activities [2] - The AI industry shows strong demand, positively impacting the entire supply chain. Notable performances include ASML's Q4 results, which exceeded expectations, and SK Hynix's Q4 operating profit doubling year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in history [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing as the "three red lines" policy ends, indicating a healthier market moving forward [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The chemical market saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Chemical Index down 0.86% while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.08%. The textile chemical products sector led gains with a 14.33% increase [11][12] - Key price movements included a rise in disperse dyes to an average of 19 CNY/kg and reactive dyes to 23 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.56% and 4.55% increase respectively [3][29] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing robust growth, with major players like ByteDance and Alibaba planning to launch new AI models around the Spring Festival, and significant investments in AI and cloud computing expected to rise from 380 billion CNY to 480 billion CNY over the next three years [2][4] Real Estate Sector Changes - The end of the "three red lines" policy is expected to lead to a more stable and resilient real estate market, as risks from the previous cycle are gradually cleared [3][4] Price Trends in Key Chemical Products - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with disperse dyes and reactive dyes showing notable upward trends due to rising raw material costs and limited supply [29][30] - The report also notes that the PA66 market is experiencing upward pressure, with prices rising to 14,954 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.48% increase [33][34]

Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, but institutions remain optimistic about the potential for upward movement in February, traditionally a strong month for the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% this week, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.62%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index declined by 3.54% [1]. - Historical data indicates that February has a 76% probability of positive returns, with an average increase of 3.4% and a median increase of 3.0%, making it a traditional window for bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Focus areas for investment include sectors with strong performance indicators such as AI hardware, storage chips, and industrial software, as well as the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and lithium battery supply chains [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace, 6G technology, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces, which are expected to receive policy support [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market's short-term fluctuations are attributed to natural digestion after high turnover rates and a peak in the proportion of transactions in non-ferrous metals, but the underlying logic for a spring rally remains intact [3]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with multiple factors such as increased insurance allocations, the maturation of fixed deposits, and foreign capital inflows contributing to a favorable market outlook [3]. Group 4: Sector Rotation - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with semiconductors, liquor, and real estate showing temporary gains, although the sustainability of these trends is uncertain [4]. - The report suggests that structural opportunities will continue to arise, particularly in technology innovation themes and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on recovery paths for profitability in resource sectors [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with technology and cyclical sectors reaching historical valuation highs, indicating that upward movement will depend on substantial industry trends and earnings growth [5]. - The focus remains on cyclical recovery and advanced manufacturing, with ongoing attention to sectors such as non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, which are expected to show resilience despite market fluctuations [6].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 春季行情有望延续 投 资 2026 年 2 月份投资策略报告 投资要点： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 上证指数 4117.95 深证成指 14205.89 | 涨跌幅 3.76% 5.03% 证 券 研 究 | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | | 沪深 300 4706.34 | 1.65% | | 创业板指 3346.36 | 4.47% | | 北证 50 1531.55 | 6.33% | | 科创 50 1509.40 | 12.29% | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 上证指数月线走势 | 报 | | 告 | | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 上证指数月线走势 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 月度策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind SAC 执业证 ...