Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper market has a weak current demand but an improving outlook. The fundamentals suggest a stage of gradually decreasing supply growth and temporarily weak demand, with positive expectations [4]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to tight copper ore supply, and the supply of refined copper in China may slow down. On the demand side, it is expected to gradually improve from the off - season to the peak season, with external demand weakening and internal demand being weak in the short - term and gradually improving in the long - term [4]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract had a weekly line that was oscillating weakly, with a weekly increase/decrease of - 1.07% and an amplitude of 1.7%. The closing price of the main contract as of this week was 78,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and disposable income remained flat in June after declining in May [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC fee for copper concentrates is still in the negative range, and domestic port inventories are continuously decreasing. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down due to policy guidance on the non - ferrous industry's production capacity and tight raw material supply. The downstream copper processing is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve in the future. In August, the US exempted copper raw materials from tariffs, but still imposed high tariffs on copper products, so external demand is expected to weaken [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai Copper main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from the previous week. The main contract price was 78,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 13,159 lots from the previous week [9]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 1, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: As of August 1, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Copper was 3,657 lots, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week [21]. - **Option Volatility**: As of August 1, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai Copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai Copper option open interest was 0.8671, an increase of 0.2260 from the previous week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3497 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from May, a decline of 1.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 936.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340.74 yuan/ton from the previous week [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of May 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 2,006 thousand tons, an increase of 97 thousand tons from April, an increase of 5.08%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.2%, an increase of 1.1% from April. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 421,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week [39]. 3.3.2. Supply - side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.43%. As of May 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, an increase of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [42]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 337,042.568 tons, an increase of 44,348.26 tons from May, an increase of 15.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.23%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 774.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 500.58 yuan/ton from the previous week [49][50]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 10,800 tons from the previous week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 7,096 tons from the previous week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,216 tons from the previous week. The total social inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58]. - **Power and Appliance**: As of June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction and power source construction increased by 14.6% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 466.5756 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611 thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [69]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of May 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of May 2025 was 84,200 tons [74].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the White House regarding a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to $4.33 per pound, reflecting a major shift in market expectations and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff [3][4]. - This targeted tariff approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [2][4]. - The announcement has caused a reversal in market sentiment, with many traders who anticipated a broader tariff now facing unexpected losses [4][6]. Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since February, U.S. copper inventories have surged from under 100,000 tons to approximately 250,000 tons by July 30, driven by preemptive imports in anticipation of tariffs [6][7]. - In contrast, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories have decreased significantly, from about 270,900 tons in February to around 90,000 tons by early July, indicating a stark divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [6][7]. - The influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue, with projections indicating that total copper imports for the year could reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruption - The new tariff policy is likely to disrupt global copper supply chains, pushing major copper-exporting countries like Chile to redirect their shipments towards Asia and Europe [8][9]. - The increased costs associated with tariffs may lead industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors, to seek domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [8][9]. - The overall impact of the tariff on the copper market could lead to a reevaluation of demand dynamics, particularly under the looming threat of a potential U.S. economic downturn [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products by the U.S. government has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to a low of $4.33 per pound, triggering a mass exit of bullish investors from the market [1][2][3]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices as market expectations shifted [2][3]. - The new tariff structure contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, resulting in a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper inventory surged to 250,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a significant shift in supply dynamics [7]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased by over 64% since mid-February, highlighting contrasting trends in global copper supply [7]. Price Fluctuations - The price of COMEX copper futures saw a year-to-date increase of over 40% before the tariff announcement, which has since narrowed to 8.87% as of July 31 [8]. - The volatility in copper prices is expected to continue, with potential downward pressure due to excess inventory and changing market conditions [12]. Supply Chain Disruption - The U.S. tariff policy is anticipated to disrupt global copper supply chains, with potential shifts in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies towards Asian and European markets, further affecting global copper supply and demand balance [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper import volume could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to an oversupply situation in the market [8]. - The long-term implications of the tariff on U.S. domestic copper demand and pricing strategies remain uncertain, as companies may seek to adjust their supply chains in response to the new tariff structure [10].

根据美国白宫网站当地时间7月30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当天签署公告，从8月1日起将对进口的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的 关税。7月30日当天，纽约商品交易所的铜期货价格一天内暴跌20%。 根据白宫网站发布的事实清单，从8月1日起，将对包括铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板等进口的铜半成品以及包括管件、电缆、连接器、电气元件等铜含量高的衍 生品统一征收50%的关税。但铜矿石、精矿、阴极铜等主要产品不在加税范围内。白宫表示，这些进口铜产品关税不会与输美汽车的额外关税叠加。如果相 关产品同时属于汽车类别，将适用的是汽车进口税，而非铜关税。 彭博社指出，特朗普政府虽然努力推动重振美国制造业，但征收高额铜关税将给自身制造业带来沉重的打击，因为美国工厂购买的近一半铜依赖海外供应 商。美国政府相关数据显示，智利、加拿大和墨西哥是2024年美国精炼铜、铜合金和铜产品的最大供应商。 美媒记者：对铜征收关税影响美消费品价格 美媒分析称，这一决定是美国政府给铜市带来的最新一次重大冲击。今年年初，当美国总统特朗普首次提及可能征收关税时，导致美国铜价大幅上涨，并引 发了各方争相将铜运往美国以避开关税的热潮。7月早些时候，特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to the U.S. government's unexpected tariff policy, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices and a mass exit of long positions from the market [1][2][4]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined copper and scrap copper, which contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products [2][3][4]. - This targeted approach has led to a rapid liquidation of previously accumulated copper inventories in the U.S., as the market adjusts to the new tariff structure [4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a 21% drop from the previous close, while London and Shanghai copper prices also fell by 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively [1][2]. - The market had previously anticipated a broader tariff application, leading to a surge in copper imports into the U.S. to capitalize on expected price increases [10][12]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventories reached 250,000 tons, a significant increase from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a major shift in supply dynamics due to tariff expectations [9][10]. - In contrast, LME copper inventories have decreased sharply, highlighting a divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper market will face downward pressure on prices due to the potential for excess inventory to be re-exported to international markets [10][12]. - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt global copper supply chains, with major copper-exporting countries potentially redirecting their shipments to Asia and Europe [12][13]. Industry Implications - The tariff's impact on copper prices may increase costs in sectors such as automotive and renewable energy, prompting companies to consider domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [12]. - The long-term effects of the tariff policy on the copper market will depend on how well downstream industries can adapt to the new pricing environment and whether they can mitigate the impact of increased costs [12][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - **Power Grid and Power Source**: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - **Air - conditioning Market**: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - **Automobile Market**: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - **New - energy Vehicles**: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, which has surprised the market and led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [2]. - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs, indicating that the cost of copper imports may not increase [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowing sharply [2][5]. - The abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper has collapsed, reducing the incentive for traders to import copper from other regions [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, imports may be limited, potentially leading to re-exports [5]. - Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with a phased approach suggested for 2027 and 2028 [6]. - The U.S. administration is also taking measures to support the domestic copper industry, including requirements for domestic sales of high-quality scrap copper [6].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has shifted from a "premium frenzy" to a "sell-off for safety" as traders exit their long positions in response to unexpected tariff policies from the U.S. government [1][3]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined cathode copper and scrap copper [3][4]. - This targeted approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated inventories in the U.S. [4][5]. Market Reactions - COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a drop of 21% from the previous close [2]. - The London and Shanghai copper markets also experienced declines of 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively, indicating a widespread market reaction [3]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventory reached 250,000 tons, a significant increase from less than 100,000 tons in February [9]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a sharp decline in copper inventory, dropping over 64% from mid-February to early July [9]. Future Supply Chain Adjustments - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt global copper supply chains, potentially leading to a shift in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy [11]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies to Asian and European markets, further affecting global supply-demand balance [11]. Price Forecasts - Analysts predict that the influx of copper into the U.S. could lead to downward pressure on prices, with potential re-exports of the accumulated inventory back to international markets [10]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. copper imports for the year is projected to reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [10]. Market Volatility - The copper market is experiencing high volatility, with the Shanghai bonded zone's copper price dropping to 69,768 yuan per ton, a decrease of 893 yuan [12]. - Companies are advised to closely monitor price differentials between COMEX, LME, and Shanghai copper to manage risks effectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].