Core Viewpoint - The establishment of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds can alleviate the fundraising difficulties in the equity investment market and enhance the ability of leading venture capital institutions to raise long-term stable funds [1] Group 1 - The first batch of projects utilizing technology innovation bond risk-sharing tools has officially launched [1] - The creation of risk-sharing tools is expected to significantly improve the accessibility and convenience of bond financing for private enterprises, especially those with weaker credit qualifications, such as early-stage and growth-stage technology companies [1] - The "technology board" in the bond market has initially connected "equity-debt-loan" through mechanisms like risk sharing and fund transmission chain design [1] Group 2 - Future potential measures may include innovations in equity-debt linkage tools and the design of bonds with special clauses, which could alleviate short-term debt repayment pressures for companies while providing value-added opportunities for investors [1]

Group 1 - The total scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 320 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 84% compared to the beginning of the year [1] - The number of newly issued bond ETF products has reached 8, with a total scale of 21.8 billion yuan [1] - There are currently 10 bond ETFs with individual scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards index-based investment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - Bond ETFs are favored due to their low cost, high efficiency, and strong liquidity, meeting investors' needs for bond asset allocation [1] - Regulatory improvements in the bond market have created a favorable environment for the rapid development of bond ETFs [1] - Financial institutions are actively launching various themed bond ETFs to capture market share and enhance competitiveness [1] Group 3 - The development of financial technology, including big data and artificial intelligence, is expected to enhance investment efficiency and risk management in the bond market [2] - The innovation in financial products, such as convertible bonds and credit bonds, is enriching the investment options in the bond market [2] - The trend of index-based investment in the bond market is expected to continue, leading to a more robust bond market [2]

Group 1 - Recent weeks have seen stagnation in the US stock market, following a rebound after tariff-related panic subsided, indicating that the recent rally may end under current conditions [1] - Global credit spreads have been widening, with the S&P 500 index's earnings yield declining significantly more than the corresponding decline in credit spreads [2][9] - The trend of widening credit spreads is observed globally, with similar patterns in Japan and Europe, where credit spreads have narrowed to pre-panic levels, reflecting a lack of confidence in the credit market [4] Group 2 - A notable change in Europe is the rise of the 10-year euro swap rate after it dipped into negative territory at the end of 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] - Cross-currency basis swap spreads for euro and yen relative to the dollar are also rising, suggesting a decrease in dollar financing costs, aligning with the trend of narrowing credit spreads expected in 2024 and 2025 [6] - The divergence between the recent rise in the 10-year euro swap spread and high-yield spreads indicates a potential shift in market sentiment [7] Group 3 - The widening of global credit spreads suggests a change in market participants' attitudes, which may lead to a contraction in the S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio [9][10] - Current trends indicate that credit spreads are moving in a different direction than the stock market, which could provide valuable warning signals for future stock market movements [10]

Group 1 - The UK's annual inflation rate for May reached 3.4%, aligning with economists' expectations, leading to a slight decline in UK bond yields and a 0.22% increase in the GBP/USD exchange rate to 1.345 [1] - The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the core inflation rate, excluding volatile items like energy and food, rose to 3.5% in May, down from 3.8% in April [1] - The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in the annual inflation rate came from transportation, while the largest upward contributions were from food, furniture, and household goods [2] Group 2 - The UK Treasury has taken necessary measures to stabilize public finances and control inflation, but acknowledges that more work is needed [2] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflation data, with expectations to maintain interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting, but a 25 basis point cut is anticipated in August [2][3] - Earlier this year, the Bank of England projected that the inflation rate would rise to 3.7% in the third quarter before beginning to decline next year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has issued a notice to strengthen the regulation of bond issuance and underwriting practices in the interbank bond market, addressing issues such as low underwriting fees and unfair competition to promote healthy market development [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Issues and Responses - The interbank bond market has faced intensified competition leading to problems like low-price underwriting, which distorts market prices and undermines fair competition [2][3]. - The notice aims to address these issues by establishing self-regulatory measures to enhance market discipline and improve the resilience and pricing capabilities of the bond market [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Prohibitions and Measures - The notice outlines seven key measures focusing on issues such as low-price underwriting, return fees, and self-financing practices, emphasizing the need for transparency and standardization in the issuance and underwriting process [3][4]. - It specifies the prohibition of self-financing and return fees, reflecting the evolving nature of these violations in recent years [3]. Group 3: Implications for Market Development - The implementation of the notice is expected to promote standardized practices in underwriting, maintain normal competitive order, and enhance the overall ecosystem of the bond issuance process [4]. - By reinforcing self-regulatory norms and clarifying the responsibilities of market participants, the notice aims to solidify the foundation for sustainable market development [4]. - The measures are designed to facilitate a more scientifically reasonable pricing mechanism, guiding resources to key areas and supporting the high-quality development of the real economy [4].

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]

在全球金融市场格局持续演变的当下，韩国债券市场正释放出巨大的投资潜力，吸引着全球投资者 的目光。前不久，彭博举办了 " 探索韩国债市，把握投资机遇"研讨会，有幸邀请到 韩国企划财政 部国债科长 Keunwoo Lee先生 与彭博韩国市场专家Ilhwan Kim对话，围绕 韩国债市政策改革、 潜在机遇和热门话题 进行深入剖析。让我们一起回顾精彩瞬间！ 彭博电子交易解决方案，凭借透明高效的交易流程、更深更广的流动性、整合一体的数据与分析， 以及赋能整个交易流程的全面解决方案，助您把握市场先机！ 终端用户运行 KORE 可查看韩国债券、股票、外汇等市场概况与最新资讯，把握机遇。 非终端用户可点击 "阅读原文" 联系我们查看功能演示。 在政策改革方面，韩国政府采取了哪些举措？ Keunwoo Lee表示，韩国政府致力于打造更透明、高效、便捷的市场环境，提升韩国债券的全球 吸引力，为此采取了多种关键举措，涵盖政策改革、市场开放以及交易便利化。 他举例指出，去年，韩国预托决济院(KSD)与国际中央证券存管处(ICSD)建立连接，正式开通国 债综合账户系统，并对其运营所需的各项制度进行改进，这对于活跃的离岸交易而言意义重 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: Bond Market Investors Shift from Bullish Sentiment to Active Buying - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 3 of June)" [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [3] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market is experiencing a bullish and active buying trend due to three marginal changes: optimistic market sentiment, increased long - term positions and leverage by institutions, and favorable fundamental data. However, there are also three points to note, including low return odds, risks associated with extending duration, and the need to monitor signals of loose monetary policy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Three Marginal Changes in the Bond Market** - Bond market sentiment is approaching the most optimistic level of the year [14]. - Institutions are not only bullish but also actively buying. Near the end of the half - year, the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has increased, and funds are buying long - term bonds and increasing their purchases of medium - term notes [14]. - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market is rising and has exceeded last year's level. The liquidity in June is not tight, which has spurred institutions to increase leverage [6]. - **Three Points to Note** - In the environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, the return odds are low. The current yield curve is extremely flat, and the space for long - term bonds to reach historical lows is small [6]. - Extending duration presents both opportunities and risks. Although it is a way for institutions to seek higher returns, historical data shows that the bond market in June is often volatile [7]. - Large banks' preference for short - term bonds has become a trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent signals of loose monetary policy [16]. 1.1 Yield Curve - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields generally declined. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y yields declined by 1bp, and the 15Y and 30Y yields declined by 3bp. The 1Y yield dropped to the 8% quantile, while 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y dropped to the 2% quantile [17]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: Short - term yields rose slightly, while long - term yields declined. The 15Y yield declined by 3bp, and the 30Y yield declined by 4bp. The 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y yields were at different quantiles [18]. 1.2 Term Spreads - **Treasury Bonds**: The spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads widening and long - term spreads narrowing. The 1Y - DR001 spread increased by 1bp, and the 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion deepened by about 1bp [19]. - **China Development Bank Bonds**: The spread inversion eased, and long - term spreads narrowed. The 1Y - DR007 spread's inversion eased by 3bp [20]. 2. Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It rose to 107.51%. From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated upward. As of June 13, it increased by 0.37 percentage points compared to last Friday [23]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover this week was 7.9 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.39%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [30]. - **Liquidity**: Bank lending showed a fluctuating upward trend. DR007 fluctuated downward, while R007 fluctuated upward [35]. 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It rose to 2.78 years (ex - leverage) and 2.96 years (including leverage). As of June 13, the ex - leverage median duration increased by 0.02 years compared to last Friday [45]. - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.67 years, while the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.73 years [48]. 4. Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall inversion has eased. The inversion of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y has decreased by 4bp, 7bp, 11bp, 11bp, 10bp, 9bp, and 4bp respectively [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: It has generally widened. The spreads between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y have widened, while the 15Y spread changed slightly and the 30Y spread narrowed [53]. 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balances - On June 13, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, the second - most active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while the concentration of the second - most active 10Y treasury bonds declined. All institutions showed an upward trend [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that dialogue with market participants is essential for ensuring stability in bond trading [1]

日本财务省：将于6月20日与债券市场参与者举行会议。 ...