反内卷对利率中枢影响如何？20250720 摘要 反内卷政策作为一种综合治理手段，对供给侧和需求侧均产生影响，与 传统的供给侧结构性改革相比，更注重短期见效，但其长期效果和对经 济的深远影响仍需持续观察。 当前市场价格竞争失效，主要原因是市场结构转变为垄断竞争，降价难 以有效刺激需求增长。企业更多依赖营销手段，如明星代言和自媒体带 货，来创造需求，导致销售费用成为影响生产数量的关键因素。 内卷的根源在于个体生产规模与有效生产规模之间的差距迅速缩小，企 业为创造需求投入大量销售费用，导致利润压力增大，甚至出现亏本冲 量的现象，使得内卷从螺旋上升转为螺旋下降。 内卷对产品和服务质量的影响分为三个阶段：初期质量提升，中期质量 下降，后期质量降级。过度营销导致"柠檬市场"格局，企业减少研发 投入，产品质量受到影响，部分领域出现数字化退潮现象。 反内卷政策旨在引导企业摆脱销售费用白热化和缓解价格竞争，初期可 能导致利润转移，但长期来看，通过供给侧结构性调整，有望对整体经 济产生积极影响，并可能提升企业部门的盈利增速与资产回报率。 Q&A 反内卷政策的逻辑是什么？与供给侧结构性改革有何异同？ 反内卷政策的核心逻辑是防止内 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025 due to the interplay of U.S. foreign policy, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI technology revolution, leading to increased fluctuations in A-shares and U.S. stocks, while safe-haven assets like gold strengthened [1] - In the context of the U.S.-China competition and China's economic structural transformation, financial resources and policies are shifting from traditional sectors (real estate, infrastructure) to new economies (technology manufacturing), resulting in a gradual decline in the interest rate center [1] - The bond market is expected to face challenges in the short term, with asset allocation needing to consider more asset pricing perspectives, especially following potential global capital inflows after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a loose monetary policy, which will support Chinese asset prices, although the difficulty in enhancing yields is increasing [2] - The public REITs market has rapidly developed since its establishment in 2021, surpassing a market size of 200 billion yuan by June 2025, attracting significant inflows from insurance and brokerage firms [2] - In the current low-interest-rate environment, public REITs with special asset attributes, such as policy-driven rental housing and core consumer infrastructure in first- and second-tier cities, are viewed favorably [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the coordinated efforts of total control and structural tools to direct financial resources towards the weak links in the real economy, further consolidating the positive trend of economic recovery since May [1] - In May, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, releasing 1 trillion yuan in funds [2] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank market was 173.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month but an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The bond market saw a total issuance of 4.48 trillion yuan in May, a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% but a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.63% and 1.73% in May, with the yield curve showing an upward trend [4][5] - The average weighted rates for overnight repurchase agreements (DR001) and pledged repos (R001) decreased by 17 basis points to 1.5% and 1.54%, respectively [3] Group 3 - The overall liquidity in the market remained balanced and loose, with a net injection of 1.3998 trillion yuan throughout May [2] - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with the 1-year and 5-year Shibor 3M swap rates showing slight increases [6] - The net financing in the bond market reached 2.11 trillion yuan in May, a month-on-month increase of 68% [4]

Group 1 - The total market value of public REITs has surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 202.07 billion yuan as of June 6, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounting for 135.14 billion yuan, or 67% of the total [1] - The first public REITs in sectors such as data centers, tourist attractions, elderly care facilities, and ice and snow economy are expected to accelerate in the future [1] - Housing REITs, supported by national policies, have seen a favorable environment for issuance, with local policies also encouraging REITs in technology innovation projects [1] Group 2 - Housing REITs typically have underlying assets with rigid demand, especially in first-tier cities and rapidly growing population areas [1] - The annualized cash distribution rate of housing REITs is generally high, and their valuation levels are relatively low, making them attractive in a market environment characterized by asset scarcity [2] - Housing REITs are favored by long-term funds such as social security and pension funds due to their high dividend yield and moderate risk profile in the context of declining bond market interest rates [2]

新发：固收+产品发行占主导，业绩基准延续下行。 4月理财公司新发产品规模环比回落，与3月 季末冲量窗口期形成的发行高峰形成鲜明对比。 产品谱系呈三大特征： 固收+产品、封闭式产 品、1-3年期产品占据主导地位。新发理财产品业绩基准多数延续下调趋势，凸显理财机构对利率 中枢长期低位运行预期的定价共识，后续或与存款利率调降形成联动，延续下行通道 。 到期：达标率74.75%，较3月环比增加7.05%。 4月全市场理财产品达标率为74.75%，较3月环 比增加7.05%。 分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号： S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编码：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管政策及资管市场要闻解读：4月21日，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布《银行间债券市场债券 估值业务自律指引（试行）》： 再次明确"应规范开展产品净值计量，不得利用估值运用规则的差 异规避产品净值化要求"，或预示未来银行理财通过"估值技术"平滑收益、控制回撤的操作空间进 一步受限。 5月7日国新办新闻发布会，央行推出一揽子货币政策措施： 面对资产端利率中枢不断 下移、银行净息差持续承压，监管机构通过利率自律机制，引导商业银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market experienced a significant seasonal rebound in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 7.58% to reach 31.09 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.05% year-on-year growth [4][19] - The issuance of fixed income plus (固收+) products dominated the new product offerings, indicating a shift in investor preference towards products that balance liquidity and yield [5][35] - Regulatory changes are expected to limit the operational space for banks to smooth returns through valuation techniques, impacting future product offerings [12][10] Regulatory Policies and Asset Management Market News - On April 21, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association released self-regulatory guidelines for bond valuation, emphasizing the need for standardized net asset value measurement [10][11] - On May 7, the central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing market expectations, which may have a dual effect on the banking wealth management market [13][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced an action plan for the high-quality development of public funds, indicating a shift towards long-term performance evaluation and transparency [15][16] Market Performance - The total market for wealth management products saw a significant recovery in April, with cash management products experiencing a decline in yield, while fixed income products saw an increase [22][26] - The annualized yield for cash management products fell to 1.49%, while fixed income products rose to 2.74%, indicating a divergence in performance [22][26] - The market's overall performance is influenced by the ongoing low interest rate environment and regulatory changes affecting product structures [26][31] New Product Issuance - In April, the issuance of new wealth management products decreased compared to March, with fixed income plus products leading the market [35][36] - The new issuance of fixed income plus products amounted to 272.99 billion yuan, significantly higher than pure fixed income products [35][36] - The majority of new products were in the 1-3 year maturity range, reflecting a trend towards medium-term investments in a declining interest rate environment [35][36] Product Maturity and Compliance - The compliance rate for wealth management products reached 74.75% in April, an increase of 7.05% from March, attributed to the recovery in the bond market [44][48] - Short-term products maintained higher compliance rates due to their flexibility in adjusting performance benchmarks in response to market fluctuations [44][48]

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit interest rates by multiple small and medium-sized banks indicate a significant shift towards lower rates, with many long-term fixed deposit products falling below 2% following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks, including Hami City Commercial Bank and Liaocheng Hunan Rural Commercial Bank, have lowered their deposit rates, with some long-term fixed deposit rates now entering the "1 era" [1][2]. - As of May 8, Hami City Commercial Bank's new deposit rates for personal fixed deposits are 1.5% for 1-year, 1.6% for 2-year, 1.8% for 3-year, and 1.85% for 5-year, reflecting a decrease of 10 to 15 basis points [1]. - Liaocheng Hunan Rural Commercial Bank's adjusted rates for 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits are now 1.89%, 1.98%, and 1.98%, respectively, down from previous rates of 2.1% and 2.16% [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Rate Cuts - The recent rate cuts are primarily driven by the pressure on banks' net interest margins, which have reached historical lows of 1.38% for city commercial banks and 1.73% for rural commercial banks as of Q4 2024 [2]. - The adjustments are a direct response to the PBOC's recent monetary policy actions aimed at reducing banks' funding costs and alleviating the pressure on net interest margins, thereby creating room for banks to offer lower loan rates to the real economy [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market interest rates are expected to continue on a downward trend, suggesting that deposit rates may further decline in the near future [3]. - Financial analysts recommend that ordinary savers adjust their asset allocation strategies in light of the diminishing high-yield assets, suggesting diversification and a focus on different liquidity and risk profiles in investment products [3].

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 501.9 billion yuan, with a significant tightening observed at the beginning of the week[3] - The DR007 rate fell to approximately 1.7%, marking the lowest level since mid-January 2025[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.28 trillion yuan to 6.08 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing remained stable above 3.1 trillion yuan, while joint-stock banks showed fluctuations until a decline on Thursday[3] - Non-bank institutions' rigid financing increased, but money market fund financing hit a year-to-date low[3] - The adjusted funding gap index dropped to 1,103 on Thursday, down from 2,452 the previous week[3] Government Debt Issuance - The overall government debt payment scale is expected to decrease to 1 billion yuan next week, with a net repayment scale dropping from 546.1 billion yuan to -390.6 billion yuan[21] - The total issuance of new general bonds reached 279.1 billion yuan, while new special bonds amounted to 960.2 billion yuan this week[21] - The estimated net financing scale for government bonds in April is approximately 860 billion yuan, a decrease of about 610 billion yuan compared to March[21] Future Outlook - The central bank may reassess the economic environment due to escalating global trade tensions, potentially accelerating the decline in funding rates[19] - The possibility of a reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates may arise if external pressures on the equity market or foreign demand increase[19] - Next week, only three discount treasury payments are expected, with a significant repayment on Wednesday reaching 350.3 billion yuan[21]