Core Viewpoint - The event titled "土司贡礼香飘湾区" aims to promote the unique agricultural and cultural products of Xincheng County, particularly its glutinous corn, to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing local economic development and cultural exchange [6][7][18]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Xincheng Glutinous Corn Festival and Cultural Promotion Event" will take place on October 10 at the Guangzhou 1906 Science and Technology Park [7]. - The event will feature a combination of agricultural product exhibitions and cultural experiences, showcasing the rich history and unique offerings of Xincheng [8][12]. Group 2: Agricultural Significance - Xincheng's glutinous corn is a key agricultural product, with an annual planting area of 107,500 acres, benefiting approximately 80,000 farming households [15]. - The annual production of glutinous corn is 45,500 tons, generating a value of 450 million yuan, making it a vital pillar for local agricultural development [15][16]. Group 3: Brand Development - The event will officially launch the new branding and standards for Xincheng glutinous corn, aiming to ensure high quality and authenticity for consumers in the Bay Area [36][38]. - Xincheng glutinous corn has received multiple accolades, including the "China Brand Shennong Award" and recognition as a "National Agricultural Cultural Heritage" [23][26]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The event is part of a broader initiative to connect local agricultural products with market demand, enhancing brand recognition and consumer access [21][22]. - E-commerce channels are being utilized to expand the reach of Xincheng glutinous corn, with projected online sales exceeding 20 million yuan in 2024 [34][35]. Group 5: Cultural Promotion - The event will include cultural performances and interactive activities, allowing attendees to experience the unique heritage of Xincheng, including traditional songs and local crafts [44][46]. - There will be opportunities for visitors to engage with local products and learn about tourism routes that highlight the area's cultural significance [48][54].

Core Viewpoint - The garlic digital adoption project in Yongji City, Shanxi Province, represents an innovative approach in agriculture, breaking the traditional "produce first, sell later" model by utilizing online adoption and transparent traceability to enhance consumer trust and support cooperatives [1][14]. Group 1: Digital Adoption and Consumer Engagement - The cooperative in Yongji City has established a fully digital adoption system for garlic cultivation, allowing adopters to select land online and view soil fertility and past yields, thus eliminating the traditional barriers of distance and visibility in agriculture [2][3]. - The project incorporates a digital system that includes features like online land selection and visualized land information, which aligns with the needs of modern digital agriculture [5]. Group 2: Traceability and Assurance - The project ensures consumer confidence through a dual assurance system of real-time traceability and offline harvesting, where each garlic bulb is assigned a unique identity code that provides access to comprehensive data from planting to maturity [6]. - Regular offline harvesting events allow adopters to engage directly with the farming process, enhancing their experience and connection to the product [10]. Group 3: Smart Assistance and User Experience - The digital platform acts as an "agriculture assistant," providing automatic reminders and care tips based on the garlic growth cycle, enabling even inexperienced adopters to manage their crops effectively [7]. - The project fosters interaction through organized events where adopters can learn practical skills from local farmers, bridging the gap between urban consumers and rural producers [10]. Group 4: Impact and Transformation - The project not only facilitates garlic sales but also builds trust between urban consumers and rural producers, leading to repeat purchases and a loyal customer base [11]. - It signifies a shift in local agriculture from a traditional production model to a participatory service model, emphasizing consumer involvement in the cultivation process [11][14].

Core Insights - The recent soybean trade dynamics between the U.S. and Taiwan highlight the intersection of agricultural economics and geopolitical strategies [1][6][13] - The U.S. is attempting to mitigate its agricultural surplus by leveraging Taiwan as a new market for its soybeans, following China's cessation of imports [6][11][14] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Challenges - U.S. farmers are facing significant challenges due to a surplus of soybeans, exacerbated by China's halt on imports, which has led to a drastic price drop [1][11] - The U.S. government, under Trump, initially attempted to address these issues through tariffs and subsidies, but these measures have proven insufficient [1][6] Group 2: Taiwan's Role in U.S. Soybean Exports - Taiwan has committed to purchasing $10 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, over the next four years, which is seen as a political maneuver to gain U.S. support [6][8] - This procurement represents a significant increase in Taiwan's reliance on U.S. soybeans, posing potential risks to local farmers and the agricultural market [8][9] Group 3: Implications for Global Trade - The shift in soybean sourcing indicates a broader change in global agricultural supply chains, with South American countries like Brazil and Argentina filling the void left by China [14] - The U.S. may struggle to regain its market share in the soybean sector, as new supply chains are rapidly being established [14]

淮风入夜，北美腹地的田埂上堆着一垛一垛豆粒。割台刚过，潮气还没散尽，有的豆荚被碾碎，散出一股淡淡的青草味。农场主站在地头，盯着远处迟迟不 来的卡车。有人把手机举到脸前，眼眶发红，几乎哽咽地对镜头说：要把中国这个大客户争回来，否则今年真要血亏。视频发出去，许多人看了心里发紧 ——这些堆在地里的东西，是他们一年的汗水，若是卖不出去，可能真的会烂在泥土里。 农田的静默与短信的喧哗 与田间的沉默形成反差的，是一段在华盛顿走漏出来的短信。据传，有人拍到美国农业部长罗林斯发给财政部长贝森特的信息，话说得很直白：昨天我们救 助了阿根廷，作为回报，阿根廷取消了谷物出口关税，并向中国出售了一批大豆。紧罗林斯又提醒，这一整套价值200亿美元的救助计划，会伤害美国农 民。 短短几句，把一连串原本在幕后的因果关系摆在了明面上：美国放出援助，阿根廷松开出口税阀门，中国买到了更便宜的大豆，美国农民立刻感到被顶在了 价格墙边。政策在纸面上行走，最终却落在一粒粒豆子的去向上。 订单转向与价格的磁力 这背后还有一层结构性因素：美国自上世纪末以来，联邦层面不再维持庞大的公共谷物储备，更多依靠期货市场、保险制度与私人仓储来分摊风险。期货可 以锁定 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of China's shift to purchasing Argentine soybeans instead of U.S. soybeans, causing significant frustration among American farmers [1][3] - American farmers feel betrayed by the Trump administration's policies, particularly the $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, which they believe undermines their market [1][4] - The recent decision by Argentina to temporarily eliminate export tariffs on soybeans, corn, and wheat has led to a surge in soybean sales, further aggravating U.S. farmers [3][4] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade war has resulted in China halting soybean imports from the U.S., leading to a significant loss of market for American farmers [1][6] - American farmers are anxious as they typically sell a large portion of their soybean harvest to China during the fall season, but this year they have seen no orders [1][3] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Market - Argentina's recent policy changes have led to a $7 billion increase in soybean sales within just two days, highlighting the competitive advantage over U.S. soybeans [3] - The Argentine government's decision to cut export tariffs is seen as a direct threat to U.S. soybean farmers, who are struggling to compete [3][4] Group 3: Farmer Sentiment - Many American farmers express disappointment and regret for supporting Trump, feeling that they have been betrayed by his administration's actions [4] - Farmers are facing financial difficulties, with some resorting to selling equipment to pay off debts due to the loss of market access [4] Group 4: Political Response - Trump has acknowledged the difficulties faced by U.S. soybean growers but blames China and former President Biden for the current situation [6] - Critics argue that Trump's trade policies have backfired, harming the very farmers he aimed to protect, and call for a more sincere approach to negotiations with China [8]

Core Insights - The U.S.-China trade war has severely impacted American farmers, particularly in the soybean sector, which has seen a dramatic decline in exports to China, resulting in losses amounting to billions of dollars [3][10]. - Despite the hardships, many farmers continue to support the Republican Party, reflecting a complex relationship between political allegiance and economic reality [6][12]. Group 1: Impact on Agriculture - The trade war has led to a significant drop in soybean exports to China, which previously accounted for about 25% of U.S. soybean sales, creating a dire situation for American farmers [3][10]. - Farmers are attempting to mitigate losses through cost-cutting measures and crop rotation, but these efforts have not been sufficient to prevent severe income reductions and potential bankruptcies [6][10]. - The agricultural sector's competitiveness is declining, with U.S. soybeans becoming a casualty of the trade conflict, affecting the entire agricultural system [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is diversifying its import sources by increasing cooperation with countries like Brazil and Argentina, thereby reducing its reliance on U.S. agricultural products [8][10]. - The misconception in the U.S. that its large consumer market can pressure other countries is being challenged, as evidenced by the Federal Trade Commission's findings that export disruptions lead to price reductions for U.S. agricultural products [8][10]. - The global market dynamics are shifting, and even if a trade agreement is reached, the U.S. agricultural sector may struggle to regain its previous market position due to the changes in supply chains [10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing an "export crisis" with storage facilities nearly empty and farmers struggling to sell their crops due to a significant drop in demand, particularly from China, which has shifted its purchases to South America [1][3][5] - The impact of Trump's tariff policies is evident, as they have raised soybean prices, making U.S. soybeans less attractive to Chinese buyers, who are now diversifying their import sources [7][16] - The U.S. government has provided subsidies, but these are insufficient and do not address the underlying market issues caused by trade policies [5][18] Group 1 - The primary issue is the lack of buyers for U.S. soybeans, especially from China, which previously was the largest customer [3][5] - Farmers are experiencing significant distress as they have a good harvest but are unable to sell their crops, leading to a situation where soybeans are considered "unsold goods" [3][5] - China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is linked to the imposition of tariffs, which they view as unfair trade practices [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. administration is caught in a dilemma between maintaining a tough stance against China and the need to secure agricultural votes from farming states [11][20] - Trump's contradictory statements about the need for China as a market while simultaneously refusing to lift tariffs create confusion and undermine credibility [11][20] - The U.S. government's attempts to find new markets are unrealistic, as few countries can match China's purchasing power and stability [13][20] Group 3 - The core of the soybean issue lies not in supply and demand but in the policy approach and negotiation tactics employed by the U.S. [16][22] - China is open to purchasing U.S. soybeans but insists on the removal of tariffs as a prerequisite for any trade [18][25] - The future of U.S.-China trade relations hinges on the U.S. willingness to engage in fair negotiations rather than relying on pressure tactics [20][25]

Core Insights - Despite a record agricultural yield in the U.S. this year, farmers are experiencing a significant decline in sentiment due to market access issues and falling prices, primarily attributed to the ongoing trade war [1][2][3] Group 1: Farmer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Purdue University and Chicago Mercantile Exchange's agricultural economic index shows a continuous decline in farmer sentiment for July and August [1] - Farmers are facing record-high expenses before the harvest, while the prices they can sell their crops for are lower than previous years [2] - The trade war has led to increased costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further straining farmers' financial situations [1][3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The U.S. soybean exports to China have ceased since May, marking the first time in nearly 30 years that China has not purchased American soybeans [3] - Other countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, are capitalizing on the U.S. trade war by increasing their market share in China [3] - Farmers are expressing frustration with the government's trade policies, which they believe are detrimental to their market access and profitability [6] Group 3: Government Response and Farmer Needs - The U.S. government has made promises to farmers regarding trade agreements and subsidies, but these commitments have not been fulfilled [6] - Farmers are demanding market access rather than financial compensation, emphasizing the need for a stable market environment [6][5] - The political implications of the agricultural crisis are significant, especially in key Republican states ahead of the upcoming midterm elections [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight market information, including data on the US soybean harvest, export, and Brazilian soybean and corn sowing, as well as some price - related data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content US Soybean Information - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared to 9% the previous week, 24% last year, and a five - year average of 20% [1]. - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, higher than the expected 60%, compared to 61% the previous week and 64% last year [1]. - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean defoliation rate was 79%, compared to 61% the previous week, 79% last year, and a five - year average of 77% [1]. - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons, within the market forecast range of 450,000 - 900,000 tons, compared to a revised 565,630 tons the previous week [1]. - As of the current crop year (starting September 1, 2025), the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 2,246,104 tons, compared to 1,929,770 tons in the same period last year [1]. Brazilian Crop Information - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 3.2% of the expected total area, higher than 0.9% a week ago and 2% last year [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn sowing in the core south - central region was 32% of the expected area, compared to 30% last year [1]. Price Information | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/23 | 2870 | 2530 | 8250 | 8980 | 10180 | | 2025/09/24 | 2880 | 2490 | 8330 | 9050 | 10120 | | 2025/09/25 | 2890 | 2520 | 8330 | 9140 | 10330 | | 2025/09/26 | 2880 | 2500 | 8430 | 9160 | 10400 | | 2025/09/29 | 2880 | 2500 | 8390 | 9150 | 10340 | [1][10]