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市场多空因素交织 铜价陷入了高位震荡格局
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-21 08:33
Group 1 - The price index for recycled brass rods (Guixi) on August 21 is 52,728 CNY/ton, an increase of 65 CNY/ton, representing a 0.12% rise [1] - The current market prices for electrolytic copper are as follows: Shanghai Huatuo at 78,800 CNY/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 78,670 CNY/ton, and Shanghai YS at 78,745 CNY/ton [2] - The closing price for the main copper futures contract on August 21 is 78,540 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot market's Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import profit/loss of 234.81 CNY/ton, down from 354.75 CNY/ton the previous trading day [3] - As of August 21, LME copper registered warehouse receipts total 145,000 tons, with canceled receipts at 11,350 tons, an increase of 600 tons, while copper inventory remains unchanged at 156,350 tons [3] Group 3 - CICC's research report indicates that the collapse of a Chilean mine will prevent it from contributing additional output for several years, compounded by the lack of recovery at the Panama copper mine and U.S. actions against illegal mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening supply constraints [4] - The current market is experiencing a traditional off-peak consumption season, with decent performance in power grid investment orders, while real estate demand remains weak [4] - Downstream purchasing behavior is characterized by a "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality, leading to a mixed market sentiment in the Shanghai copper market [4]
港股收评:恒指跌0.24%,科技股普跌,苹果概念股走弱,基建医药强势
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 08:29
另一方面,再迎行业利好消息,医药类股全线拉升,互联网医疗股方向涨幅较大,叮当健康大涨近24% 领衔,券商指为完成全年预算,基建支出需加速,基建类全天强势,中国中车、时代电气涨超5%,影 视股、石油股、电信股、家电股、光伏股多数表现活跃。(格隆汇) (原标题:港股收评:恒指跌0.24%,科技股普跌,苹果概念股走弱,基建医药强势) 盘面上,作为市场风向标的大型科技股多数表现低迷,美团跌3%,百度跌2.58%,小米跌超2%,阿里 巴巴跌1.5%,京东跌超1%,腾讯勉强翻红,网易涨1%;昨日大幅上涨的苹果概念股跌幅明显,其中, 瑞声科技绩后大跌超13%,舜宇光学、鸿腾精密跌超3.5%,锂电池股、新消费概念股、汽车股、黄金 股、铜业股等有色金属齐跌,其中,新消费老铺黄金跌近4%,奈雪的茶、茶百道、蜜雪集团等饮料股 纷纷走低。 港股三大指数集体收跌,恒生科技指数午后一度跌至1.3%,最终收跌0.77%,恒生指数、国企指数分别 下跌0.24%及0.43%,午后市场情绪稍显弱势。 ...
云南铜业股份有限公司关于 2025年度第二期中期票据发行结果的公 告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-20 23:00
Group 1 - The company completed the issuance of the second phase of technology innovation bonds for the year 2025 on August 19, 2025 [1] - The total amount of funds raised from this bond issuance was fully received on August 20, 2025 [1] - Relevant documents regarding the issuance of the medium-term notes can be found on the China Money website and the Shanghai Clearing House website [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made by the board of directors of Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. on August 20, 2025 [2]
铜陵有色上半年营收增长6.39%,境外分红税费激增致净利下滑超三成
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-20 15:09
Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. reported a 6.39% year-on-year increase in revenue to 76.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 33.94% due to increased tax expenses from adjustments in overseas subsidiary dividend arrangements [2][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan, with copper product revenue at 63.736 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.31% increase, accounting for 83.78% of total revenue [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.441 billion yuan, down 33.94%, while the net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 1.432 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.19% [4][5] Market Conditions - Copper prices fluctuated between 71,320 yuan/ton and 88,320 yuan/ton, with an average price of 77,520.77 yuan/ton, marking a 3.98% year-on-year increase [4] - The increase in copper prices was supported by supply constraints and rising demand in the renewable energy sector, alongside traditional market policies [4] Tax and Dividend Adjustments - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a 147.74% increase in income tax expenses, amounting to approximately 2.495 billion yuan, resulting from changes in dividend arrangements from the overseas subsidiary Ecuacorriente S.A. [5][6] - The subsidiary's cash flow was better than expected, prompting adjustments in dividend distribution to ensure financial stability and risk management [5] Debt and Cash Flow - The company's asset-liability ratio increased to 54.54% from 47.80% in the previous period, with short-term borrowings rising by 54.38% and long-term borrowings increasing by 46.96% [6] - Cash flow from operating activities decreased by 83.35% to 379 million yuan, primarily due to increased inventory levels [6] Future Growth Prospects - The Mirador copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly support future growth, with annual copper production capacity projected to reach 310,000 tons [7][8] - The first phase of the Mirador mine has shown strong profitability, with net profits of 1.71 billion USD for the first five months of the year [7] - The expansion project is nearing completion, with a total investment of 3.37 billion yuan and a completion rate of 95% as of June [7][8]
铜陵有色:米拉多铜矿二期扩建项目试车工作顺利进行
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-20 10:45
Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. is currently progressing smoothly with the trial operation of the Mirador copper mine expansion project, focusing on light load debugging and optimization of system parameters as per the established plan [1] Company Summary - The company has confirmed that the trial operation of the Mirador copper mine phase II expansion project is proceeding as planned [1] - The ongoing work includes light load debugging and further optimization of relevant system parameters [1]
研报掘金丨民生证券:维持铜陵有色“推荐”评级,期待米拉多铜矿二期投产
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-20 09:29
格隆汇8月20日|民生证券研报指出,铜陵有色实际经营稳健,期待米拉多铜矿二期投产。冶炼端,铜 加工费大幅致冶炼利润下降明显,但冲击有限,下降幅度远小于加工费下降幅度,或主要是副产品贡献 较多。从冶炼子公司利润来看,25H1金隆铜业实现净利润3.23亿元,同比下滑30%;赤峰金铜实现净利 润1.90亿元,同比下滑36%。公司冶炼端利润韧性明显或主要是由于冶炼副产品,公司上半年化工及其 他产品毛利率55.04%,同比增长39.05PCT。围绕铜产业链上下游补链、强链。上游:米拉多铜矿注入 完成,2024年自产铜产量达到15.5万吨,且二期项目将于2025年投产,届时自给率还将进一步提升。中 游:铜基新材料项目有序推进,冶炼产能预计提升,得益于交通和区位优势,冶炼成本位于成本曲线左 侧,成本优势明显。下游:铜箔年产能8万吨。铜产业链一体化发展持续推进,产能建设稳步进行,米 拉多铜矿二期投产在即,未来增量可期。维持"推荐"评级。 ...
“金九”旺季即将来临 沪铜能否打破震荡僵局?
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 08:18
Group 1 - Recent domestic copper concentrate processing fees have rebounded, indicating a significant easing of supply tightness due to additional concentrate supply entering the market [2][3] - The domestic refined copper supply for the first half of the year was approximately 7.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, driven by production growth [5] - The overall refined copper supply in China is expected to remain sufficient, with domestic smelters maintaining high production levels despite seasonal maintenance [6] Group 2 - Domestic copper social inventory has shown signs of recovery, primarily due to increased imports, while U.S. copper inventory continues to rise [7][8] - The copper price is expected to experience a downward adjustment in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to underlying support factors [9][10] - The demand for copper in the second half of the year is anticipated to remain strong in China, while overseas demand may follow a high-low trend [7]
铜冠铜箔:公司向控股股东铜陵有色采购铜原料,供应稳定,铜品质较高且具有地域优势
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-20 06:25
每经AI快讯,有投资者在投资者互动平台提问:贵公司铜属于铜色有陵提供吗? 铜冠铜箔(301217.SZ)8月20日在投资者互动平台表示,公司向控股股东铜陵有色采购铜原料,供应稳 定,铜品质较高,且具有地域优势,采购价格参照市场公开报价。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
冶炼产量仍偏高,铜价暂时难有靓丽表现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - **Mine End**: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]
矿端扰动带动供应收缩预期,铜延续高位区间波动
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The core drivers are the continuous fermentation of supply - side disturbances and the support from the home appliance sector in the demand side. However, the macro - sentiment is cautious, and the risk of fluctuations caused by unexpected events should be vigilant [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis 3.1.1 Main Contracts and Basis - On August 15, the SHFE copper futures main contract closed at 79,080 yuan/ton, slightly down from August 12. The LME copper price also slightly declined to $9,760/ton during the same period. The domestic spot premium - discount structure was differentiated. The premium of premium copper dropped from 260 yuan/ton on August 12 to 210 yuan/ton on August 15, and the premium of flat - water copper shrank synchronously. But in North China, the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper was boosted due to logistics restrictions near the Tianjin SCO Summit. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to -$93.75/ton, indicating short - term supply pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - The LME copper position increased to 271,444 lots on August 15, an increase of 2,867 lots compared to August 12. The domestic spot trading sentiment was relatively stable, and the procurement and sales sentiment indices in Shanghai were both around 3.1, with strong wait - and - see sentiment from both supply and demand sides [2]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensified. The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru may face operational interruptions due to the presidential election. Although MMG maintained its annual production forecast of 360,000 - 400,000 tons, transportation disruptions and inventory clearance indicated short - term supply constraints. Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, mainly due to production problems of four enterprises. The annual production target of 1 million tons was under pressure. In China, policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry affected the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises, potentially suppressing recycled copper supply. However, Minmetals Resources' copper sales in the first half of the year increased by 51% year - on - year, partially offsetting supply - side disturbances [3]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Downstream demand showed differentiation. The market quotation of brass rods remained flat. The production of recycled copper rod factories was suppressed by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and the overall production enthusiasm was average. However, the refrigeration and air - conditioning valve market continued to grow, with sales increasing by 5.7% year - on - year in the first half of the year. Policy stimulus for home appliances in the second half of the year may further boost copper consumption. Overall, the demand in the power and home appliance sectors remained stable, but the demand in the construction and industrial sectors was still weak [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - On August 15, the LME inventory slightly increased to 24,560 tons, the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,800 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 267,195 short tons. The global visible inventory generally fluctuated at a low level. The concentrated arrival of imported sources in Shanghai increased the inventory, but with the active shipment of holders, the spot premium remained firm, and inventory accumulation did not form obvious pressure [5]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From August 12 to August 18, the prices of SMM:1 copper, SHFE, and LME showed slight fluctuations. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper changed, with the wet - process copper having a large change rate of 566.67%. The LME (0 - 3) discount increased by - 3.20%. In terms of inventory, the LME inventory increased by 3.82%, the SHFE inventory decreased by - 0.13%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.00% [8]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **MMG's Production**: MMG's annual production forecast for the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru remains unchanged at 360,000 - 400,000 tons, but the presidential election may cause operational interruptions [9]. - **Qingyuan Jiangtong's PV Project**: On August 15, Jiangxi Copper (Qingyuan) Co., Ltd.'s 2540.65 - kilowatt distributed photovoltaic power generation project was officially connected to the grid, with an annual power generation of 2.5 million kilowatt - hours, saving 1,000 tons of standard coal and reducing 2,492 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually [10]. - **SMM Copper News**: Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, logistics restrictions in North China boosted the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper [10]. - **Zambia's Copper Production**: Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, and the annual production target of 1 million tons is at risk [11]. - **Recycled Copper Policy**: Policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry may affect the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises [12].