新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 高价抑制下游需求 但操作仍可持续逢低买入套保 市场要闻与重要数据 1. 矿端供应方面，12月铜矿供应围绕"零加工费"与潜在罢工两条主线展开。12月25日CSPT正式将2026年Q1现货TC 指导价空缺，长单Benchmark定格在0美元/吨，较2025年的21.25美元/吨"腰斩再归零"，凸显精矿持续紧张。现货 TC结算-44.98美元/干吨，环比再跌1.3美元。矿企动态方面，Kaz Minerals缩减对中国直供、转向贸易商招标，中标 价-50美元，进一步压缩中国冶炼厂原料选择。刚果Kamoa 50万吨粗炼产能12月29日产出首批阳极板，增量预期落 在2026年Q2之后，短期无实质舒缓。智利Mantoverde（年产3万吨铜）工会12月24日进入5+5天调解期，罢工窗口 覆盖1月上旬，供给扰动概率高。综合来看，矿端维持"极紧+高扰动"格局，1月若无罢工兑现，TC或继续横盘-40~-45 美元区间；一旦Mantoverde停产，干净矿现货或再收紧，TC不排除下探-50美元。 2. 粗铜供应方面，12月全球粗铜与阳极板贸易维持"长单锁定、现货稀缺"格局。国内南方粗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, China Railway Construction Copper Crown Investment Co., Ltd., reported a delay in the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project, which is expected to impact the company's operating performance in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The second phase of the Mirador copper mine project has an uncertain official production start date [1] - The delay in the project is anticipated to have a certain impact on the company's financial results for the year 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) experienced a stock price increase of 3.64% on the first trading day of the new year, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1] - The rise in global copper demand, particularly due to the recovery of major economies, has positively impacted the company's earnings outlook [1] - Recent financial reports indicate improvements in production efficiency and cost control, enhancing investor confidence in the company's future prospects [1] Group 2 - Investments in environmental technology and sustainable development have improved the company's image among investors, potentially driving further stock price growth [1] - The expanding application of copper in the renewable energy sector, especially in electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment manufacturing, supports a long-term optimistic outlook for copper demand [1] - Political uncertainties and commodity market volatility have led investors to favor stable investment options like Southern Copper, providing additional support for its stock price [2]

在市场供应将趋紧的前景下，铜价在2026年的第一个交易日恢复上涨。 摩根大通全球研究预计，LME铜价将在2026年第二季度达到每吨12,500美元，最终全年平均每吨12,075美元左右。花旗同样看涨铜价，该行分析师 Max Layton等人表示："我们确信铜价在2026年前将继续上涨，这受到多重看涨催化剂的支撑，包括逐渐向好的基本面和宏观背景。"他们预测，受低 利率环境和美国财政扩张推动经济增长，以及欧洲重整军备和能源转型的带动，明年全球终端铜消费将增长2.5%。 编辑/jayden 2025年，全球最大的几个铜矿并不太平。5月下旬，位于刚果(金)的全球第四大铜矿卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿发生矿震事件，并导致其2025年产量指引由从 52万-58万吨下修至37万-42万吨。7月底，全球最大地下铜矿智利埃尔特尼恩特矿因地震造成矿井坍塌。运营这座矿山的智利国营铜业公司表示，今 年的产量将缩减30万吨，较此前预期低约11%。美国矿业巨头自由港-莫克莫兰在9月8日印尼Grasberg矿山发生山体滑坡后暂时中止运营。该公司已宣 布启动不可抗力条款，并预计其产量将受到重大影响并持续至2027年。自由港-莫克莫兰已将2026年Gr ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline on December 31, with significant drops in companies such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum, both falling over 2%, while Kaiser Aluminum and Southern Copper saw declines exceeding 1% [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time this week, aiming to cool down the recently surging precious metals market [1] - As a result of the increased margin requirements, precious metals experienced a substantial drop, with New York silver futures falling over 9% and dropping below $71 per ounce [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - On December 31, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 34.49 billion HKD from northbound funds, with 30.97 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 3.51 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect. This marks a record high net inflow of 1.41 trillion HKD for the year, significantly up from approximately 807.9 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Key Stocks - The most net bought stocks by northbound funds included China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with 7.24 billion HKD, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (工商银行) with 5.88 billion HKD, and China Construction Bank (建设银行) with 5.61 billion HKD [6]. - The most net sold stocks were Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) with a net outflow of 6.82 billion HKD and Tencent (腾讯) with a net outflow of 6.46 billion HKD [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a stable macro-financial environment, with projections indicating that bank interest margins may have bottomed out and risks in the real sector are easing. This is anticipated to lead to income and profit recovery in the banking industry [6]. - Semiconductor stocks, particularly SMIC (中芯国际), received significant net buying, with 3.91 billion HKD, driven by price increases in the 8-inch BCD process platform by approximately 10% [6]. Group 4: Specific Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper (江西铜业) saw a net inflow of 1.58 billion HKD, while Zijin Mining faced a net outflow of 6.82 billion HKD. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for optimizing the management of the copper smelting industry, which may impact future production levels [7]. - Xiaomi Group (小米集团) received a net inflow of 2.37 billion HKD, supported by government policies promoting consumer electronics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2025, with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and military industries, indicating a positive outlook for 2026. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved the highest annual growth rate in 2025, with the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) rising by 91.67%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18.41% [10][19]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector, such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum, saw substantial price increases, with Zijin Mining up by 133.09% and Jiangxi Copper up by 176.92% [10][6]. - The sector's strong performance is attributed to a combination of global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [8][10]. Military Industry - The military sector, particularly the commercial aerospace segment, has gained significant traction, with the military ETF Huabao (512810) rising over 32% in 2025, marking its second-best annual performance since its inception [13][16]. - Major stocks in the military sector, including GuoBo Electronics and China Satellite, experienced notable gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [14][13]. - The military industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, driven by increased military demand and advancements in commercial aerospace [16][13]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector also performed well, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a 41.09% increase in 2025, outperforming major indices [20][19]. - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a significant rise in both price and demand, with prices for lithium carbonate reaching 116,000 yuan per ton, indicating a robust market outlook [22][20]. - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic recovery and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on key areas such as phosphates and semiconductor materials [22][20].

Core Viewpoint - This week, copper prices experienced volatility, reaching a yearly high on Monday, followed by a decline on Tuesday due to the performance of precious metals, and stabilizing with a gain of over 2% on Wednesday. The rebound is attributed to the dovish tone from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, indicating potential interest rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [3][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Monday, copper prices hit a new high for the year, but faced a pullback on Tuesday as the precious metals market negatively impacted overall market sentiment [3][9]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most participants support a potential interest rate cut in December, citing increased risks to employment in recent months [3][9]. - The dovish atmosphere from the Fed has contributed to a recovery in non-ferrous metal prices, leading to a strengthening of copper prices [3][9]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - Recent policy measures in China have been introduced to boost market confidence [4][10]. - Inventory levels show a decrease in LME copper stocks by 5,100 tons to 149,475 tons, while Comex stocks increased by 2,177 tons to 445,180 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,053 tons [4][10]. - Despite rising copper prices, downstream enterprises are adopting a cautious approach to procurement, focusing on essential needs. However, strong demand from the renewable energy sector, AI data center construction, and grid renovation cycles are expected to support global copper consumption [4][10].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.87% at 25,630.54 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.12% to 5,515.98 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.86% to 8,913.68 points [1] - The overall market saw declines in tech stocks, with Alibaba down 1.18%, Tencent down 0.17%, and JD Group down 1.76%, while Bilibili and Baidu saw gains of 0.42% and 1.39% respectively [1] - The annual performance of the Hang Seng Index increased by 27.77%, marking the best performance since 2017, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 23.45%, the best since 2020 [2] Sector Performance - The gold and precious metals sector showed significant gains, with Zhu Feng Gold rising over 1200% and Lingbao Gold increasing by over 570% throughout the year [2] - The semiconductor sector performed well, with Huahong Semiconductor up over 240% and SMIC up over 120% [2] - The aviation sector saw strong performance, with Southern Airlines rising over 4% [1] Company Updates - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) expects a net profit of approximately RMB 51-52 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% due to increased production and sales prices [3] - Xingqian Development (00640.HK) reported a revenue of approximately HKD 835 million for the year ending September 30, 2025, a 13.4% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 21.7% to approximately HKD 122 million [3] - Shanghai Electric (02727.HK) plans to sell a 47.4% stake in Electric Guoxuan and waive the right of first refusal for an additional 3.6% stake [4] Investment Insights - Everbright Securities noted that the overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with relatively low valuations despite recent increases, suggesting long-term investment opportunities [13] - Founder Securities highlighted positive signals from government policies aimed at optimizing the automotive industry, indicating potential for improved market conditions and value in leading automotive companies [14] - CITIC Securities projected a 7.9% increase in private residential transactions in Hong Kong for 2026, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and increased asset allocation demand [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.1% at midday [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 176 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,000 stocks declining [6] Sector Performance - The computing hardware industry chain experienced a pullback, particularly in the CPO sector, while humanoid robots, energy storage, consumer electronics, and cross-strait integration concept stocks weakened [5] - Conversely, e-commerce and AI application sectors showed strength, with commercial aerospace concept stocks remaining active in certain areas [5] Notable Stocks - The commercial aerospace concept stocks saw significant gains, with Aerospace Morning Glory hitting the daily limit, alongside other stocks like Tailong Co., Shunhao Co., and Beidou Star Communication also reaching their daily limits [7] - The education sector was active, with Kevin Education hitting the daily limit following announcements from the Ministry of Education regarding the promotion of AI in education, with plans to issue related policy documents by 2026 [15] New Listings and IPOs - Longxin Technology, a major DRAM manufacturer, has submitted an IPO application to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, with projected profits exceeding expectations by Q4 2025 [15] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices fell by $20 to $4,354 per ounce, while spot silver dropped by 3% to $73.86 per ounce [9] Currency and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan for 7-day terms at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 260 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [20]