Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wholesale and retail trade industry, expecting significant growth in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - Offline, Yonghui Supermarket is set to launch its first "717 Good Food Festival" from July 9 to July 20, 2025, aiming to enhance product exposure and transition from a "shelf logic" to a "lifestyle logic" approach [10][11]. - Online, Meituan has achieved a record of over 120 million daily orders, indicating intense competition in the instant retail sector [14][28]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance shows a year-on-year decline of 9.63% for Tmall and JD.com in the second week of June [16]. - The retail sector is experiencing slight pressure, with supermarkets and department stores underperforming, while e-commerce is stabilizing at the bottom [3]. Market Review - During the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.40% and 1.25%, respectively, while the retail sector saw a slight decline of 0.16% [20][24]. Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket is recommended for its transformative business model towards a selective retail approach, which is expected to drive long-term growth in the post-consumption era [26]. - Meituan is viewed positively for its established barriers in user perception, rider management, and merchant relationships, despite the competitive landscape [28].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in instant retail orders, with Meituan's daily orders surpassing 120 million, driven by seasonal demand and substantial subsidies from platforms like Taobao [1][8][9] - Taobao Flash Sale has initiated a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in a remarkable increase in order volumes for participating brands [2][9] - The report notes that the baby and personal care product sectors have seen a strong response in a recent recruitment drive, with over 13,000 companies signing up, indicating robust interest from major industry players [3][11] Group 2 - The report provides insights into the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 2.34% during the week [15][18] - It mentions the performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US market, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index showing a slight increase of 0.17% [23][24] - The report discusses the ongoing trends in the restaurant and tourism sectors, highlighting the expansion of various brands and the impact of new financing initiatives on the hospitality industry [34][41]

2025.07. 06 本文字数：3250，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 陈杨园 巨头相争 美团的加码或受竞争者的刺激。 7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布上线两月日订单突破6000万，并以巨大流量反哺线下，同时官宣将在12个月 内直补消费者及商家共500亿。对手加码后，美团在7月5日的冲击属于是对竞争对手的"接招"。 淘宝闪购在加速冲刺更高的日单量。4月30日正式上线以来，淘宝闪购六天实现了日订单超过1000 万单，6月23日，日订单又突破6000万单。 一位接近阿里的人士告诉第一财经记者，周末"冲锋"是淘宝闪购的惯用打法之一，日订单量的新高 峰常在周末达成。数据显示，7月2日补贴上线首日，淘宝闪购餐饮连锁品牌和中小商家生意分别环 比增长170%和140%，拉动咖啡、饮品、甜品、小吃、西式快餐等多品类美食订单量环比增长超过 150%，刺激下午茶、夜间等多场景订单增长超过170%。 知情人士对第一财经记者表示，7月5日，淘宝闪购的餐饮订单和零售订单的确突破了新高峰，已向 6000万单后的下一个台阶迈进。 有消息称，美团"闪击"阿里的决定是7月5日临时作出的。当日上午，美团外卖业务相关执行团队突 然接到通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic theme park bookings for the summer of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 70% in orders, particularly for major global players like Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland [2][3] - The report also notes that local IP parks, such as the Pop Mart City Park, have gained popularity, with a 600% increase in bookings in June, placing it among the top 10 summer theme parks [2][3] - The report discusses the strong performance of the AI creative tool Figma, which is preparing for an IPO with a projected valuation of $20 billion, showcasing a 48% revenue growth in 2024 [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Leisure - The summer theme park bookings have surged, with a 70% increase in orders compared to the previous year, and surrounding hotel bookings have also risen by approximately 40% [2][3] - The opening of the Shanghai Lego Park has further boosted regional hotel bookings by 350% [13][14] 2. Trendy Toys - The Sanrio 2025 Character Awards have seen record global voting numbers, indicating sustained popularity and engagement with the brand [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of anniversary celebrations for IP operations, with significant events planned for characters like Melody and Kuromi [25][27] 3. AI and Creative Tools - Figma, a leading AI creative tool, is set to go public, with a revenue of $749 million projected for 2024, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase [4][26] - The company has a strong customer base, serving 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, and has shown a net dollar retention rate of 125% [26][30] 4. Coffee and Tea - Luckin Coffee has expanded into the U.S. market with two new stores in New York, utilizing a digital-first approach to minimize costs [36][41] - The average monthly store efficiency for Luckin Coffee reached 247,000 yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase [41][44] 5. Instant Retail - The competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has intensified, with significant subsidies being offered to consumers [45][47] - On July 5, Meituan reported over 120 million orders in a single day, indicating a surge in demand [47][53] 6. Beauty and Personal Care - The report highlights the dominance of the domestic brand Han Shu in the Douyin platform, achieving over 700 million yuan in sales in June [53][54] - The beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan in June, with Han Shu leading the market [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery and instant retail market, particularly focusing on Meituan's strategies and challenges amid aggressive subsidies from competitors like Taobao and JD.com [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-June, Meituan's daily payment orders have remained above 90 million, but its market share in terms of order volume has dropped from over 70% to below 60% due to faster growth from competitors [4][6]. - Taobao Shanguo has launched a 500 billion subsidy, marking the largest subsidy war in the history of food delivery, while JD.com has also committed significant resources to compete [5][8]. - The total daily order peak in the competitive landscape has exceeded 180 million, with tea and coffee orders making up a significant portion of the growth [10][11]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Meituan is expected to increase its subsidies by at least 10 billion yuan compared to last year, with potential additional spending of 15 to 20 billion yuan if competition intensifies in the second half of the year [4][8]. - Meituan's core local business, which includes food delivery, is projected to generate an operating profit of 524 billion yuan in 2024, with food delivery contributing approximately 325 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the profit [10][11]. - The total subsidy expenditure for Meituan in food delivery could reach 40 to 50 billion yuan this year, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Meituan's main competitors, JD.com and Alibaba, are not reliant on food delivery for profitability, which differentiates them from Meituan, where local services are a primary profit source [10][13]. - The competition has evolved into a battle for online retail growth, with Taobao Shanguo emerging as Meituan's primary rival [12][14]. - Meituan is closely monitoring potential threats from Douyin and Pinduoduo, which are also exploring opportunities in instant retail and food delivery [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Meituan's leadership has indicated a commitment to win the competition at all costs, reflecting a strategic pivot towards aggressive market engagement [16][17]. - The company is adapting its subsidy strategies dynamically based on competitor actions, indicating a responsive approach to market changes [8][10]. - Meituan's management is focused on maintaining order volumes despite competitive pressures, with internal assessments suggesting that the battle may last one to two years [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is launching a massive subsidy plan of 50 billion yuan for Taobao Flash Sale, aiming to strengthen its position in the instant retail and food delivery market, with a goal to surpass Meituan in order volume within 2-3 months [3][5][19]. Group 1: Subsidy Plan Details - The 50 billion yuan subsidy plan is one of the largest in the history of the food delivery sector, targeting both consumers and merchants [5][6]. - For consumers, the plan includes large red envelopes, free meal cards, and official subsidized products across high-frequency categories like electronics, beauty, and fresh produce [5][6]. - For merchants, Taobao Flash Sale will offer store subsidies, product subsidies, delivery subsidies, and commission reductions to lower operational costs and ensure profit margins [5][6]. Group 2: Growth and Market Impact - Taobao Flash Sale has seen explosive growth, with daily orders increasing from 40 million on May 26 to 60 million by June 23, representing a year-on-year increase of 179% [6][7]. - The overall order volume in the instant retail market has risen from 100 million to 160 million daily, marking a 60% increase [6]. - The platform's success has created new growth opportunities across various categories, including beverages, apparel, and home goods, with some brands experiencing order increases of over 200% [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - The subsidy plan is part of Alibaba's broader strategy to transition from a comprehensive e-commerce platform to a "big consumption platform" [9][14]. - Recent organizational changes, including the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's e-commerce division, aim to create a seamless shopping experience across different consumption scenarios [11][12]. - Alibaba's ultimate goal is to enhance user engagement and frequency of purchases by building a closed-loop ecosystem of "product retail + lifestyle services" [15]. Group 4: Merchant Benefits - The subsidy plan is expected to provide a new business opportunity for merchants, encouraging a shift from price competition to quality and brand development [17][18]. - The plan will lower the entry barriers for small and medium-sized brands into the instant retail market, allowing them to expand their service radius and increase sales [18]. - If Taobao Flash Sale successfully matches Meituan's order volume, merchants could see significant growth in revenue and profits [19].

Core Insights - The Chinese food delivery industry experienced a historic surge in orders, with Meituan surpassing 120 million orders in a single day, driven by a subsidy war between Meituan and Alibaba [1][2] - The competition is characterized by significant promotional activities, including large discount coupons, which have stimulated consumer demand and led to temporary service disruptions on Meituan's platform [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing price war will reshape the industry landscape, with substantial investments expected to continue until at least September 2025, ultimately benefiting the market in the long term [3] Company Developments - Meituan reported over 100 million food delivery orders on July 5, accounting for more than 80% of total orders, indicating a strong market presence [1] - Alibaba's Taobao Shanguo launched a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan aimed at boosting consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in significant order volume increases for restaurants and small businesses [2] - JD.com has also seen growth in its food delivery service, with daily orders exceeding 25 million since its launch, covering 350 cities and over 1.5 million restaurants [2] Market Trends - The competition among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is expected to evolve, with potential scenarios ranging from Meituan maintaining its leadership to a duopoly or fragmented market [2][3] - The current price war aims to capture user traffic through frequent delivery services, which may enhance profitability in e-commerce and travel sectors in the medium term [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the food delivery market could reach 2.4 trillion yuan and the instant retail market could reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by improved supply chains and new business models [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's current "Cloud + AI" strategy focuses on becoming a "water seller," providing computing power and AI resources to other clients, which allows it to avoid addressing specific AI commercialization issues [1][16]. Financial Performance - In May 2025, Alibaba reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 125.976 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year surge of 77%, marking a historical high [2]. - The CFO highlighted significant progress in enhancing the competitiveness of e-commerce and cloud businesses, with Taobao and Tmall achieving steady growth [2]. E-commerce Strategy - Alibaba's e-commerce sector faced pressure due to the decline of mobile internet traffic and competition from Pinduoduo, leading to concerns about its business moat [2]. - The company has shifted focus back to users, moving away from extreme price competition, and is now emphasizing quality and operational efficiency [6][4]. - The Taobao platform's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 449.827 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [6]. AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba is investing heavily in AI, with plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15]. - The cloud computing segment generated revenue of 118.028 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, driven by soaring AI demand [13]. - The company has released over 200 open-source models, with global downloads exceeding 300 million, establishing a significant presence in the AI space [13]. Instant Retail Development - The instant retail market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 650 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.89% [11]. - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me into its e-commerce division to capitalize on the instant retail trend, launching "Taobao Flash Purchase" to leverage its vast user base [12][8]. - The daily order volume for Taobao Flash Purchase exceeded 6 million, indicating strong market penetration [12]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising financial results, Alibaba faces challenges in achieving profitability in its local lifestyle business, which reported an adjusted EBITA loss of 3.689 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [12]. - The company needs to effectively integrate its new business models with its existing e-commerce operations to create synergies and enhance overall value [16].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase has launched a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer spending and support merchants in the instant retail market [2][3] Group 1: Subsidy Strategy - Taobao Flash Purchase will implement a "direct subsidy" plan over the next 12 months, with a total subsidy scale of 500 billion yuan [2] - The platform aims to enhance consumer engagement by offering large red envelopes, free order cards, and official subsidized products [2] - Merchants will receive various subsidies, including store, product, and delivery subsidies, to ensure profit margins and promote business growth [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Taobao Flash Purchase has achieved a daily order volume exceeding 60 million, with a punctuality rate of 96% [3] - Retail orders have seen a year-on-year growth of 179%, with some brands experiencing over 10 times growth in order volume [3] - The initial day of the subsidy saw 589 retail brands doubling their daily order volume compared to the launch date [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The instant retail market is characterized by intense competition, with platforms like Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com also engaging in aggressive subsidy strategies [2][6] - Meituan's daily order volume exceeds 90 million, while JD.com has surpassed 25 million [6] - The competition has led to increased pressure on merchants, who are compelled to participate in subsidy schemes [5] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The effectiveness of Taobao Flash Purchase's subsidy strategy will be evaluated based on merchant retention rates, user repurchase rates, and market share changes [3][7] - The strategy is seen as a defensive measure against low-price competition, aiming to reduce operational costs for merchants [6] - Future success will depend on converting subsidy advantages into enhanced digital operational capabilities for merchants [7]

Core Insights - The explosive growth of instant retail is evident, with JD.com handling an average of 25 million orders daily and Meituan's flash purchase orders increasing over 60% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [1] - The gap between daily order volumes in instant retail and e-commerce logistics is narrowing, indicating a structural transformation in the supporting logistics system [1] Group 1: Logistics Models - Instant retail mirrors the e-commerce era with two logistics models: platform self-operated and third-party delivery, with the latter gaining prominence due to its efficiency and resource utilization [1][2] - Third-party delivery services are increasingly being utilized by platforms like Meituan and Ele.me to alleviate the cost pressures associated with self-operated logistics [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Merchants are diversifying their platform presence to reduce dependency on single platforms, leading to a demand for third-party delivery services that can facilitate multi-platform operations [3] - The competitive landscape among platforms is driving the need for cost reduction and efficiency, positioning third-party delivery as a core infrastructure in the instant retail ecosystem [3] Group 3: Profitability and Business Models - SF Express has successfully implemented a full-scenario delivery model, achieving profitability and establishing a competitive edge through efficient resource allocation and collaboration with various platforms [4] - The increasing demand for cross-platform traffic integration and high fulfillment costs are expected to enhance the scale economy of third-party delivery services [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third-party delivery network enables brands to reach a broader consumer base while optimizing fulfillment costs and improving service quality, creating a win-win situation for all parties involved [5] - The instant retail market is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with third-party delivery potentially sharing the market with e-commerce logistics, indicating a promising future for this sector [5]