融达期货宏观周报-中美领导人通话，带动宏观氛围回暖。20250609 国内外周度观察 国内： 消息面：6月5日晚，国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。此次会谈释放如下信 号：1.双方主要专注于经贸问题，讨论如何进行下一阶段的谈判。双方已经约定展开下一阶 段的谈判，具体时间和地点待定。2.中美领导人向对方递出橄榄枝，发出访问邀请，让中美 关系走向稳定发辉非常关键的作用； 生产端：2025年5月国内制造业PMI录得49.5，环比变动0.5。周内国内电炉开工率录得 64.74%，环比变动-0.64%。周内国内石油沥青开工率录得61.67%，环比变动0.25%。 需求端：社会消费品零售总额当月同比5.1%，环比变动-0.8%。2025年4月进口金额当月同比- 0.2%，环比变动4.2%。外需方面：4月出口金额当月同比8.1%，环比变动-4.2%。 高频数据：截至2025年6月08日30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值为124.75万平方米，大幅低 于季节性。国内乘用车当周日均销量95364辆。仍然处于季节性高位。截至2025年6月06日国 内猪肉批发价为20.46元/公斤，周同比变动-0.23元/公斤。截至2025 ...

建筑装饰 2025 年 06 月 08 日 三峡水运新通道开工，关注大型水利工程事件催化 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250603-20250606） 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.25%，沪深 300 指数+0.88%，相对收益为+0.37pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 基建国企（+3.22%）、家装（+2.85%）、专业工程（+2.34%），对应 行业内三个公司：重庆建工（+26.12%）、名雕股份（+7 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

科创债新规提出，在继续支持科技创新类、科创升级类、科创投资类和科创孵化类发行人发行科创债的 基础上，拟进一步拓宽发行主体和募集资金使用范围，扩大科技金融服务覆盖面。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，作为我国金融支持科技创新的重要工具， 债券市场"科技板"落地以来成效显著，通过债券市场引导长期资本精准投向硬科技领域，与银行信贷、 股权融资形成互补，完善了科技企业全生命周期融资体系。 6月7日，债券市场"科技板"落地实施满月。自5月7日以来，科技创新债券（下称"科创债"）发行规模持 续提升，金融机构、创投机构、科技型企业等密集发行。 Wind数据显示，截至6月6日，全市场发行科创债216只，累计发行规模4012.98亿元。此外，相关公告显 示，还有7只科创债待发行，计划发行规模为152.5亿元。 其中，新规新增了"支持金融机构发行科技创新债券"相关条款，将商业银行、证券公司、金融资产投资 公司等金融机构纳入科创债发行主体范围。 从发行人所处行业看，目前，银行业是科创债发行的绝对主力。新规实施以来，累计已有16家银行发行 了首期科创债，发行规模达到2010亿元。其中，建设银行的发行规模达300 ...

据央视新闻6月3日消息，美国政府近期将钢铝关税提至50%，并向多国施压要求限期提交贸易谈判方 案，引发国际社会广泛争议与担忧。 美国此轮关税政策呈现出鲜明的"极限施压"特征。自4月宣布面向全球的"对等关税"以来，特朗普政府 一方面将钢铝关税从25%翻倍至50%，另一方面以7月9日恢复高额关税为威胁，要求贸易伙伴在4日前 提交谈判方案。这种"软硬兼施"的策略，本质是试图通过制造紧迫感迫使各国在市场准入、供应链调整 等核心议题上让步。数据显示，美国当前实际关税水平已达1938年以来最高，若"对等关税"完全实施， 将创下19世纪90年代以来的峰值，这种突破历史区间的关税壁垒，直接冲击全球贸易体系的稳定性。 贸易往来（资料图） 从短期看，美国政策已对自身经济产生显著反噬。经合组织年内两次下调美国增长预期，将2025年经济 增速预测从年初的2.2%调至1.6%，2026年预测值也降至1.5%。制造业成为首当其冲的领域：5月制造业 PMI连续第三个月低于荣枯线，降至48.5%，企业信心指数更出现1976年有记录以来的最大单季跌幅， 从60点骤降至34点。小企业主普遍反映成本激增，俄亥俄州某电吉他踏板厂商因零部件进口成本上 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the economic vitality and industrial strengths of ten non-provincial cities in China, showcasing their unique contributions to regional economic development [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - Suzhou, with a GDP of 2.67 trillion yuan, has a significant industrial output of 4.7 trillion yuan and foreign trade volume of 2.62 trillion yuan, establishing itself as a leading industrial city [1] - Wuxi's economy, valued at 1.62 trillion yuan, is driven by a high-end equipment manufacturing sector contributing 66.3% to its industrial output, reflecting its high-quality development [1] - Foshan, known as the "Home Appliance Capital of China," has a GDP of 1.33 trillion yuan, with a strong private economy despite a slowdown in growth to 0.65% in 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Strengths - Quanzhou's economy, with a GDP of 1.31 trillion yuan, is characterized by a robust private sector, although it faces challenges due to limited financial deposits [2] - Nantong, with a GDP of 1.25 trillion yuan, showcases its strengths in construction and shipbuilding, benefiting from the Shanghai economic influence [2] - Dongguan's transformation from a "World Factory" to a "Smart Manufacturing City" is evident with a GDP of 1.22 trillion yuan and significant contributions from tech giants like Huawei and OPPO [2] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Yantai, with a GDP of 1.07 trillion yuan, emphasizes its marine economy, contributing one-third to its industrial output [2] - Changzhou, recognized as the "Capital of New Energy," has a GDP of 1.09 trillion yuan, with battery production accounting for 30% of the national capacity [2] - Tangshan, rebounding with a GDP of 1.0003 trillion yuan, shows an 8.3% growth in industrial added value, indicating a revival in northern industrial cities [2] Group 4: Overall Trends - The article notes that Jiangsu province leads with five cities, while Guangdong has two, highlighting the significant clustering effect in the eastern coastal regions [3] - The continuous efforts in industrial transformation and technological innovation are pivotal for these cities, contributing to the overall economic narrative of China's local economies [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant improvement in the nuclear power industry, with the State Council approving five nuclear power projects and ten units in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of approving ten or more units annually [1] - From January to April 2025, the completed investment in nuclear power reached 36.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.64%, significantly outpacing the 1.6% growth in power source investment, indicating a new boom cycle in nuclear power construction [1] - The third-generation nuclear power units are expected to enter a peak construction phase, with modular construction technology showing promising prospects for shortening construction periods and improving efficiency [1] Group 2 - In the construction and decoration sector, the cement shipment rate has continuously rebounded to 47.8%, reflecting an acceleration in physical construction work [1] - The article suggests focusing on investment opportunities in key industries such as infrastructure in central and western regions, nuclear power, and coal chemical industries, while also monitoring improvements in orders from central state-owned enterprises and the subsequent realization of physical work [1] - The Infrastructure ETF (code: 159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (code: 930608), which selects listed companies involved in infrastructure construction from the A-share market, covering industries such as construction, building materials, and engineering machinery [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月06日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-05 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3384.09 | 10203.50 | 3877.55 | 11566.37 | 2875.21 | 996.40 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.23 | 0.58 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1.08 | 1.04 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4982.41 | 7921.63 | 2317.49 | 2960.32 | 3700.15 | 216.30 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-本周特别国债发行 1760 亿 行业与公司 纺服行业专题:关税影响专题三：美国对等关税暂缓期，国际品牌表述与 供应链梳理 银行行业专题:稳定币步入大众视野——中国香港《稳定币条例》点评 建筑建材双周报（2025 年第 10 期）：长三角熟料价格推涨，化债进 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月05日 重点板块数据跟踪： 1）水泥：上周全国水泥价跌 0.8%，沪苏浙粤桂黔降 10-20 元/吨，云南 昆明涨 20 元/吨。5 月底需求略增，出货率升至 47.8%。需求偏弱致多 地价格续跌，但长三角熟料涨价，计划 6 月水泥涨价，鄂赣等地跟涨， 后期价格或企稳反弹。2）玻璃：上周国内浮法玻璃均价 1270.96 元/吨， 环比跌 0.58%，供应端新增产线加剧市场观望，需求受高温多雨抑制， 行业亏损扩大，短期价格或继续承压。光伏玻璃市场交投清淡，终端需 求疲软致组件开工率下滑，厂家库存累积，2.0mm/3.2mm 镀膜面板价格 分别跌至 13 元/㎡和 21 元/㎡，环比跌幅扩大。纯碱价格走弱使成本支 撑不足，利润空间进一步压缩，市场整体维持弱势运行态势。3）玻纤： 上周无碱粗纱市场延续跌势，2400tex 缠绕纱主流价 3500-3800 元/吨， 均价 3696.5 元/吨，周跌 0.62%，同比降 4.3%。北方低价成交增多，市 场灵活议价。电子纱 G75 报价 8800-9200 元/吨，电子布 3.8-4.4 元/米。 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧 ...

德国5月建筑业PMI 44.4，前值45.1。 ...