Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is experiencing a bull market supported by strong fundamentals, particularly in manufacturing, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer spending [3][4][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market is the best-performing market globally this year, with expectations of profit-taking as the year ends [6][74]. - The stock market has diverged from real estate prices and ten-year government bond yields since January, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][31]. - The bull market is characterized by a significant wave structure over the past 30 years, with the fifth wave expected to be the most promising [6][70][73]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Industrial profits are expected to recover, which will positively influence the Shanghai Composite Index [7][58]. - The manufacturing sector remains robust, with the contribution of real estate to GDP declining from over 30% to around 10% [32][34]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes economic construction, a strong industrial system, and revitalizing consumption, with little focus on real estate [49][54]. Group 3: Inflation and Deflation - The long-term deflationary pressures in upstream industries are affecting downstream consumption, necessitating policy measures to alleviate these issues [8][14]. - The implementation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River project is seen as a significant step towards addressing overcapacity and price competition [12][16]. - There is an expectation that upstream price and consumption sentiment will begin to recover in the next 3 to 6 months [10][23]. Group 4: Commodity Trends - Gold has experienced a significant price increase, indicating potential historical changes in the market, with expectations for industrial metals to follow suit [35][47]. - The U.S. is projected to issue approximately $2.1 trillion to $2.2 trillion in debt by 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [39][48]. - The current pricing of industrial metals reflects a pessimistic outlook similar to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a potential for recovery [43][46].

Core Insights - The global demand for power batteries is expected to remain high in 2024, primarily driven by electric vehicles, with continued growth in demand from both China and the United States [1] - China's power battery production capacity continues to expand, with an increase in concentration among leading companies, and both LFP and energy storage batteries are experiencing significant growth [1] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a high-quality development cycle, with a shift in competitive logic from scale racing to quality improvement and technological upgrades [1] Industry Overview - Energy storage batteries have seen a year-on-year growth of 64%, making them the most promising segment within the industry [1] - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries continue to dominate the market, with a shipment volume exceeding 560 GWh, accounting for 72% of the total [1] Investment Vehicle - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which selects 50 securities related to the new energy vehicle industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering key areas such as lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The passenger car market in China is expected to achieve record sales in 2025, driven by policy support, increased penetration of new energy vehicles, and sustained export growth [1] - The market is projected to continue its transition towards high-quality development in 2026, with domestic brands maintaining a strong market share [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Seres' Aito brand has successfully navigated price wars and competition, establishing itself as a leader in the high-end new energy vehicle market, with total deliveries exceeding 900,000 units [1] - The Aito M9 model has set a new record for deliveries in the 500,000 yuan segment, breaking the dominance of foreign brands in the high-end market [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Seres reported revenue of 110.534 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.312 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year profit increase of 31.56% [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Analysts recommend focusing on Seres as a leading player in the domestic luxury SUV market, highlighting its investment value due to strong industry demand [2] - The successful listing of Seres on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks its entry into the "A+H" dual capital platform, enhancing its financing channels and supporting its global expansion strategy [2]

Group 1 - Fluence reported a positive outlook during its earnings call, highlighting 30 GWh of AIDC-related intention orders, primarily concentrated in North America, which positively impacted the US stock market [1] - CITIC Securities noted that the logic for AIDC energy storage in North America is becoming clearer, with a simple calculation indicating that the energy storage scale equals new AIDC power multiplied by penetration rate and storage duration [1] - The demand from potential clients is categorized into three types: Interconnection, Backup, and Power quality, with current focus on the first two types, which are peak-shaving in nature [1] Group 2 - As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy Index (000692) saw significant gains, with stocks like Yishitong (688733) up 20.00% and others following suit [2] - The New Energy ETF (588830) closely tracks the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy Index, which includes 50 large-cap stocks in solar, wind, and new energy vehicles [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the New Energy Index accounted for 49.07% of the index, including major companies like Trina Solar (688599) and JinkoSolar (688223) [2]

点击按钮▲立即预约 工信部组织开展卫星物联网商用试验 11月26日消息，工业和信息化部发布关于组织开展卫星物联网业务商用试验的通知。通过开展卫星物联网业务商用试验，丰富卫星通信市场供 给、激发市场主体活力、提升行业服务能力、建立安全监管体系，形成可复制可推广的经验和模式，支持商业航天、低空经济等新兴产业安全健 康发展。 美国消费者信心跌至五年来次低水平 11月26日消息，美国商务部数据显示，美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%，远低于华尔街预期，结束了此前数月的加速势头。世界大型企业联合会 11月消费者信心指数从上月的95.5骤降至88.7，为五年来第二低读数，仅高于今年4月水平。此前公布的通胀数据显示，美国批发价格在截至9月 的12个月中上涨2.7%，高于市场预期。劳动力市场显示出越来越明显的疲软迹象。失业率在9月触及4.4%的四年高点，而今年大部分时间招聘活 动 一直疲软。 特朗普总统周二在白宫的火鸡赦免仪式上坚称物价正在下降，尽管数据显示情况恰恰相反。"这个感恩节，我们也在让美国重新变得负担得起方 面取得了令人难以置信的进展，"特朗普说，"我们已经降到了很长时间没见过的水平。"（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ 就业 ...

Group 1: Currency and Economic Factors - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD is 7.0796, marking a nearly one-year high for appreciation [2] - The RMB is approaching the critical level of "7", with the possibility of breaking this level if the strong trend continues [2] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to three main factors: positive progress in China-US trade negotiations, narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, and increased inflow of hot money driven by rising RMB-denominated assets [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - International investment banks are optimistic about A-shares, with Morgan Stanley predicting further increases by 2026, and UBS expecting another fruitful year for Chinese stocks [3] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the rise of Chinese stocks is driven by artificial intelligence (AI) applications, contrasting with the US focus on computing power [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Market Potential - China has demonstrated strong competitiveness in technology applications, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and mobile payments, which are expected to foster growth in AI [4][5] - The application of AI, particularly in robotics, is anticipated to create significant market opportunities, with ETFs tracking the robotics sector showing promise [5][6] - The transition of robots from laboratories to everyday life is expected to expand market space, supported by advancements in chips and optical modules [6] Group 4: Future Projections for AI and Technology Stocks - Concerns about an AI bubble are deemed premature, especially for Chinese tech stocks, which are considered undervalued compared to US counterparts [6][7] - Alibaba's CEO suggests that there will be a supply-demand imbalance in AI resources over the next three years, indicating continued opportunities for global tech stocks [7] - The influx of hot money into China is expected to further support the appreciation of the RMB [7]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for XPeng Motors (09868), citing the launch of new vehicles, exceeding expectations in external collaborations and internal reforms, and significant improvements in profitability, along with potential breakthroughs in robotics and flying car businesses [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%; gross margin at 17.9%, up 3.7 percentage points; and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.52 billion, a reduction in loss by 2.94 billion year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%; gross margin at 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net loss attributable to shareholders was 380 million, a reduction in loss by 1.43 billion year-on-year and 100 million quarter-on-quarter [1] Sales Structure and Margin Analysis - The launch of the XPeng G7 in Q3 2025 accounted for 13% of total sales; however, the sales proportions of G6, G9, and X9 declined due to pre-launch hesitation regarding the range-extended platform, leading to a decrease in automotive gross margin [2] - The company achieved significant growth in service and other revenues, reaching 2.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%, which positively impacted overall gross margin [2] - The delivery guidance for Q4 is set at 125,000 to 132,000 units, indicating a potential return to profitability in the quarter [2] User Base Expansion - The introduction of MONA M03 and P7+ has increased monthly sales from 10,000 to 30,000 units, with the G7 pushing XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities to Level 3, marking a new era in smart driving [3] - The X9 range-extended version is expected to launch at the Guangzhou Auto Show, with significant sales growth anticipated in Q4, supported by the addition of range-extended systems across various models [3] AI and Robotics Transformation - The company is redefining future vehicles as next-generation robots, integrating internet platform capabilities, with software expected to account for 50% of the value [4] - The seventh-generation humanoid robot focuses on full-stack self-research and cross-domain integration, with plans for orderly production in the coming months, aiming for a sales price comparable to vehicles [4] - The introduction of a high-efficiency L4 fully shared robotaxi model is expected to enhance commercial competitiveness, indicating a strong potential for monetization as the company transitions into an AI enterprise [4]

本文字数：1966，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 "今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全 球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 洪灝是在11月21日举办的"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上作出上述表述的。对于今年中国股市的上 涨，有观点认为没有基本面支撑，但洪灝持反对意见。他认为，中国股市的运行有基本面支撑，支撑经 济基本面的核心力量由房地产转变为新能源、半导体、高端制造等新兴产业。 2025.11. 25 在洪灝看来，"9.24"以来的行情没有修复完，随着工业利润不断修复，将支持上证指数继续创新高。 中国股市最值得期待的"第五浪"刚刚开始，涨幅可能超出普遍预期。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内 卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导 致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market is currently the best-performing market globally, with expectations of profit-taking pressure as the year ends. The upward trend is supported by the rising global status of Chinese companies [1] - There is a belief that the recent market rally lacks fundamental support; however, it is argued that the fundamentals have shifted from real estate to emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [1][6] - The ongoing recovery of industrial profits is expected to support the Shanghai Composite Index in reaching new highs, indicating that the anticipated "fifth wave" of the market has just begun, potentially exceeding general expectations [3][7] Group 2 - The past three years have seen deflationary pressures in China's upstream industries, which are now beginning to transmit to downstream sectors, manifesting in weak demand and increased competition [4] - Recent improvements in industrial metal prices and pork profit margins suggest that the deflationary pressures are easing, with expectations of a recovery in upstream prices and consumer sentiment in the next 3 to 6 months [5] - The contribution of real estate to GDP has decreased to around 10%, indicating a shift in the economic fundamentals, with strong performance expected from sectors outside of real estate, particularly in manufacturing and emerging technologies [6][7] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that each economic cycle in China lasts approximately 3 to 4 years, with the current economic indicators suggesting a return to relative cyclical highs [7] - The correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and industrial profits suggests that as industrial profits recover, the index will continue to rise, with long-term trends indicating a steepening yield curve for long-term bonds [7] - The recent surge in precious metals prices, including gold and silver, signals significant historical changes in the economic landscape, with expectations that industrial metals will follow suit after the recent rally in gold prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The fundamental support for the Chinese stock market has shifted from real estate to emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a robust market outlook despite potential profit-taking pressures by year-end [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Chinese stock market is currently the best-performing market globally, with expectations for continued growth driven by the rising global status of Chinese companies [1]. - The ongoing market rally since September 24 has not fully recovered, but industrial profit recovery is expected to support the Shanghai Composite Index in reaching new highs [4]. - The anticipated "fifth wave" of the stock market is just beginning, with potential gains exceeding general expectations [4][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent years have seen upstream industries in China experiencing deflation, with this pressure now beginning to affect downstream sectors, leading to weak demand and increased competition [5]. - The recovery of upstream inflation is expected to gradually transmit to downstream sectors over the next 3 to 6 months, potentially improving consumer sentiment and spending [5][6]. - Industrial profits have shown significant growth, exceeding 20% in September and October, indicating a positive trend in upstream enterprises [6]. Group 3: Fundamental Support for the Stock Market - The previous reliance on real estate as a fundamental indicator has diminished, with its contribution to GDP now around 10%, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing are gaining prominence [7]. - The performance of gold and silver has reached historic highs, suggesting significant changes in the economic landscape, including rising U.S. national debt and aggressive fiscal policies in Japan [7]. - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that each economic cycle lasts approximately 3 to 4 years, with current indicators reflecting a return to relative cyclical highs [8]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and industrial profits indicates that as industrial profits recover, the index is likely to continue reaching new highs [8]. - The long-term trend suggests that the yield curve for long-term bonds will continue to steepen, which is a key economic indicator [8]. - The wave theory applied to the Chinese stock market suggests that the current phase is just beginning, with expectations for substantial growth ahead [9].