Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on lithium carbonate, suggesting to pay attention to the lower support level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2605 contract's closing price was 143,860, with a change of 1,260 compared to T - 1. The 2607 contract's closing price was 143,100, with a change of 960 compared to T - 1. The 2605 contract's trading volume was 258,276, a decrease of 30,295 from T - 1, and the 2607 contract's trading volume was 30,226, a decrease of 7,978 from T - 1. The 2605 contract's open interest was 276,578, a decrease of 6,167 from T - 1, and the 2607 contract's open interest was 100,896, an increase of 1,752 from T - 1 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 34,318, a decrease of 422 from T - 1 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and 2605 contract was 5,140, a decrease of 4,760 from T - 1; between the spot and 2607 contract was 5,900, a decrease of 4,460 from T - 1; between 2605 and 2607 contracts was 760, an increase of 300 from T - 1 [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,057, a decrease of 43 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,450, a decrease of 175 from T - 1 [3]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000, a decrease of 3,500 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 146,000, a decrease of 3,500 from T - 1 [3]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 53,290, a decrease of 850 from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 190,800, a decrease of 1,000 from T - 1 [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On the evening of March 19, Xiaomi officially announced that its new - generation SU7 received 15,000 locked orders within 34 minutes of its launch. The standard version is priced at 219,900 yuan, the Pro version at 249,900 yuan, and the Max version at 303,900 yuan [4]. - In 2025, China carried out 190 vehicle recalls, involving 6.846 million vehicles, a decrease of 18.5% and 39.1% respectively compared to the previous year. There were 105 new - energy vehicle recalls, involving 2.652 million vehicles, accounting for 38.7% of the total annual recall volume. There were 13 over - the - air (OTA) recalls, involving 1.756 million vehicles, accounting for 25.7% of the total annual recall volume. Recalls influenced by the State Administration for Market Regulation numbered 55, involving 2.934 million vehicles, accounting for 42.9% of the total annual recall volume. By the end of 2025, China had carried out a cumulative 3,265 vehicle recalls, involving 121 million vehicles [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 11.83 basis points to 3.902%[3] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 13.03 basis points to 4.006%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 13.23 basis points to 4.380%[3] Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2056.00, down 0.05%[4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 21647.61, down 2.01%[4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45577.47, down 0.96%[4] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6506.48, down 1.51%[4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25277.32, down 0.88%[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3957.05, down 1.24%[4]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,277.32, down 0.9%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.4% to 8,574.07[1] - Total turnover in Hong Kong stocks was HKD 342.5 billion, an increase of 11.9% from HKD 306.2 billion on Thursday, indicating heightened investor anxiety[1] - Energy, financial, and conglomerate indices rose by 1.6%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively, while consumer discretionary, information technology, and healthcare sectors declined by 3.0%, 2.2%, and 1.3%[1] Stock Performance - Li Ning (2331 HK) and CATL (3750 HK) led the gainers, rising 8.6% and 8.4% respectively[1] - Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) were the biggest losers, both down 8.6% and 6.3% respectively[1] Energy Prices and Geopolitical Factors - WTI crude oil prices fluctuated around USD 98, while TTF natural gas futures briefly surpassed EUR 60[1] - Mixed signals from the U.S. regarding military actions in Iran have increased uncertainty in capital markets[1] U.S. Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,577, down 1.0%[2] - The Hang Seng Index futures closed at 24,725, indicating a discount of 552 points[2] Industry Insights - In the automotive sector, Geely (175 HK) rose 6.4% to a three-month high, outperforming peers[4] - Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) maintained its leading position in the ADAS market despite reporting a net loss last year, with a stock price increase of 1.2%[4] Healthcare Sector Developments - Pharmaceutical stocks generally followed the Hang Seng Index down, with no negative news reported[5] - The National Healthcare Security Administration plans to release a new payment scheme by July 2024, aimed at improving efficiency and reducing patient burdens[5] Renewable Energy and Utilities - The renewable energy sector showed mixed performance, with Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and Flat Glass (6865 HK) rising 3.3% and 2.1% respectively[5] - Reports suggest that Elon Musk's team is procuring products from Chinese solar equipment manufacturers, with orders expected to start shipping in early May[5]

Industrial Production - Steel production continues to recover, with major varieties showing improved apparent demand[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, while some chemical products' operating rates improved month-on-month[1] - The operating rate of polyester in the textile industry increased, and the operating rate of automotive tires continued to recover[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a slight recovery compared to earlier months[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.50% compared to the previous value[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in March (1-15) were 561,000 units, down 21% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, a drop of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 19%[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with container throughput up by 11.1%[1] - The export container freight index rose by 4.5% month-on-month[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.9%, while the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose by 3.1%[1] - The price of rebar futures decreased by 0.6%, while the spot price fell by 0.2%[1] - The agricultural product wholesale price index dropped by 0.9%[1]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights the ongoing high oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising nearly 40% from $70 to $95.5 per barrel, and currently exceeding $110 per barrel, indicating a significant impact on asset prices due to geopolitical tensions [6] - There is a noted improvement in real estate sales, with new residential sales area declining by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February, a smaller drop compared to the 18.0% decline in Q4 2025, suggesting a trend of gradual recovery [6] Group 2: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% over the week, confirming a daily downtrend across major indices including the CSI 300 and CSI 500, indicating a broad market decline rather than a structural one [7] - Despite the overall downtrend, 12 out of 28 sectors are still showing daily uptrends, suggesting potential opportunities for selective investments [7] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The textile and apparel sector, particularly Mercury Home Textiles, is expected to benefit from the growing sleep economy, with projected revenue growth of 10% annually from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately 56.42 billion yuan by 2027 [15][16] - The construction materials sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.46% decline in the SW construction materials index, and a focus on raw material price fluctuations is advised [19] - The coal industry is witnessing a significant rebound, with domestic coal prices rising sharply due to increased demand and geopolitical factors affecting LNG supply [20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach to investments in the current market environment, recommending defensive strategies and selective sector exposure, particularly in high-dividend yielding assets and growth-oriented companies [28][29] - In the non-bank financial sector, companies like China Pacific Insurance and Huatai Securities are highlighted as having strong performance potential due to favorable market conditions and valuation metrics [14]

Economic Trends - The cement dispatch rate improved significantly, reaching 30.6% as of March 20, up 11 percentage points from March 13, but down 7.6 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude closing at $112.2 per barrel, an increase of 8.8%[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger cars declined by 21.3% year-on-year in the first half of March, following a 25.4% drop in February and a 13.9% decrease in January[2] - The construction resumption rate for major construction companies was 62% as of March 18, up 19.5 percentage points from the previous week but down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year[2] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.5% as of March 15, down from 16.5% last year[2] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decrease of 26.4% as of March 20, compared to a 3.1% increase in January-February[27] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell to $4,576.3 per ounce, down 8.9%, while copper prices dropped to $12,128 per ton, down 5.6%[3] - The domestic coal price showed a slight rebound, with Shanxi power coal priced at 735 yuan per ton, up 0.8%[36] Financial Indicators - The yield curve steepened, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2568%, 1.5625%, and 1.8299%, respectively[59] - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 2.16, indicating better relative value for stocks compared to bonds[10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The online retail sector is experiencing a recovery in growth rates, with significant improvements expected in e-commerce GMV and profits due to reduced impacts from government subsidies, e-commerce taxes, and delivery price increases [4][14] - Major companies are increasing investments in AI, with a focus on integrating multiple business lines and optimizing model inference costs, which may drive performance and valuation [4][16] - The AI application landscape is evolving from Chat to Agent, leading to increased complexity in tasks and a significant rise in token consumption, which is expected to accelerate cloud computing growth [5][22] Summary by Sections Internet Sector - Online retail sales have shown a year-on-year growth of 10.3% in early 2026, indicating a structural recovery in consumption [14] - Major companies like Alibaba and Tencent are expected to leverage their ecosystem advantages to enhance their competitive positions in AI applications [4][16] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more refined and profitable global expansion strategies [4] AI and Cloud Computing - The demand for AI is projected to drive the cloud computing industry out of low-price competition into a new phase centered around AI computing power premiums [5][22] - Alibaba Cloud announced price adjustments for AI computing and intelligent storage products, with increases ranging from 5% to 34% [17][19] - By 2031, the number of active intelligent agents in Chinese enterprises is expected to exceed 350 million, with a compound annual growth rate of over 135% [5][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Pinduoduo, and Baidu Group-SW, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [6][35] - In the computer sector, companies like Kingsoft Cloud and MiniMax are highlighted as beneficiaries of increased IT spending from state-owned enterprises [6][35] - In the automotive and autonomous driving sectors, companies such as XPeng Motors-W and Tesla are expected to benefit from advancements in high-level autonomous driving technology [6][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of Geely Automobile is generally in line with expectations, with total revenue of 105.76 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately 3.74 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.9% year-on-year and 2.0% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company aims for a sales target of 3.45 million vehicles in 2026, which is a year-on-year increase of 14%. The new vehicle lineup includes models such as Zeekr 8x and Lynk & Co 07 [8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026 has been raised to 20.8 billion yuan, up from the previous estimate of 19.5 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance in high-end models and exports [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2024: 240.19 billion yuan - 2025: 345.23 billion yuan (up 43.73% year-on-year) - 2026: 412.87 billion yuan (up 19.59% year-on-year) - 2027: 476.83 billion yuan (up 15.49% year-on-year) - 2028: 518.64 billion yuan (up 8.77% year-on-year) [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2024: 16.63 billion yuan - 2025: 16.85 billion yuan (up 1.32% year-on-year) - 2026: 20.80 billion yuan (up 23.44% year-on-year) - 2027: 24.44 billion yuan (up 17.51% year-on-year) - 2028: 28.19 billion yuan (up 15.33% year-on-year) [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2024: 1.54 yuan - 2025: 1.56 yuan - 2026: 1.92 yuan - 2027: 2.26 yuan - 2028: 2.60 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing trend of Chinese companies going global, driven by the need for higher profits, larger markets, and more opportunities, marking a shift from being pushed to proactively seeking international expansion [3][10][11]. Group 1: Current Trends in Global Expansion - In 2024, China's foreign direct investment reached $192.2 billion, with 34,000 domestic investors establishing 52,000 overseas entities across 190 countries and regions [3]. - By 2025, the import and export volume of private enterprises reached 26.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, accounting for 57.3% of the total import and export volume [4]. - The article highlights the diverse products and services that Chinese private enterprises are exporting, including clothing, cosmetics, photovoltaic panels, and electric vehicles, contributing to significant growth figures [5]. Group 2: Shifts in Entrepreneurial Mindset - Three years ago, the sentiment among entrepreneurs was largely reactive, with many feeling compelled to go global due to external pressures such as trade wars and market demands [8][9]. - By 2025, the mindset shifted to a more proactive approach, with entrepreneurs actively seeking international opportunities for growth and profitability [10][11]. Group 3: Insights from Global Markets - The article discusses various international markets, such as Indonesia, where a young consumer base presents significant demand, and Ethiopia, where there are supply gaps in essential goods [11][12]. - In regions like the Middle East, ongoing infrastructure projects create a continuous demand for construction materials and home furnishings, indicating potential growth areas for Chinese companies [12]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and New Business Models - The narrative highlights a transformation in China's global economic role, moving from a "world factory" to a leader in technology and innovation, with companies now exporting technology, patents, and operational services [16]. - The article references a historical perspective on China's economic positioning, illustrating how the country has evolved from a low-margin manufacturing base to a more sophisticated global player [15]. Group 5: Upcoming Global Summit - The third "Born to be Global" summit will focus on the theme "Go Global for Growth," aiming to explore growth paths and strategies for Chinese companies in a multipolar world [20][21]. - The summit will feature discussions on various topics, including supply chain restructuring, AI empowerment, and brand globalization, providing a platform for sharing experiences and strategies [21][22].

Key Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China, aiming to maintain ample liquidity in the market [4][7] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with various sectors such as photovoltaic, energy, and communication semiconductors showing strong performance, while others like IT services and consumer goods are lagging [4][8] - The semiconductor industry is projected to continue its upward cycle, driven by AI demand, with significant growth expected in DRAM and NAND prices [21][22] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,957.05, down 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,866.20, down 0.25% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.56 and 47.78, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a focus on governance to combat "involution" and improve market dynamics [36] - The communication sector is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% in the optical communication market from 2025 to 2030, driven by increasing demand for AI computing power [13][14] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an emphasis on quality and safety, as indicated by recent legislative changes [23][25] Investment Opportunities - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as power generation, photovoltaic equipment, and communication devices, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8][12] - The semiconductor market is anticipated to benefit from rising AI-driven demand, with specific attention to domestic storage and chip manufacturers [21][22] - The food and beverage industry is advised to consider upstream raw material companies, as inflationary pressures may create investment opportunities [30][31]