Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by deteriorating geopolitical conditions overseas. Most major indices fell, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 0.2%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.9%. Currently, the valuation of the Wind All A Index is at a historical medium level since 2010 [1][13][15] - In terms of industry performance, there was a divergence in the performance of the Shenwan first-level industries this week. Non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture-related sectors performed relatively well, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials sectors saw significant declines [1][15][24] Group 2 - Recent turmoil in the Middle East, particularly Israel's strikes against Iran, is not expected to have a significant impact on the A-share and Hong Kong markets. Historically, the impact of Middle Eastern tensions on these markets has been minimal. The low share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade also contributes to the limited effect on the domestic economy [2][3][21] - The short-term impact of the Middle East situation on industry performance is expected to be minimal. In the long term, the effect will depend on the duration of the conflict. A shorter conflict may benefit growth sectors, while a longer one could favor resource, transportation, and dividend sectors [2][3][39] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to maintain a consolidation state, with three main lines of focus: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds. The expansion of domestic demand is a key focus of recent domestic policies, which may lead to continued policy catalysts [4][18] - The historical data indicates that the average performance of major assets following conflicts in the Middle East shows that the A-share and Hong Kong markets do not experience significant declines. The average performance of the Wind All A Index and the Hang Seng Index remains stable, with a tendency for narrow fluctuations [24][25][29]

每周思考总第633期 《A股短期决定变量转为 海外地缘冲突 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至6 月15日累计收益3.97%。 主板择时观点： 国内外基本面延续走弱符合康波萧条期基本面特征，伊以冲突升级也在康波萧条期 基本预判内，唯独国内机构资金不惧利空继续流入的状态超预期，密切关注上述多空合力，短期遵循 客观模型信号维持低仓位回避不变； 中小市值板块择时观点： 板块于5月中旬开启相对主板的补涨行情，也是本轮机构资金流入的直接受 益者，但本次中东地缘冲突下同步走弱，建议参照主板节奏同样维持 低仓位 回避不变，风格维持主 板占优； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：石油石化。 基本面上，中美经济数据均不理想。 国内方面， 上周中国官方陆续披露了进出口、物价、银行 货币供应等5月经济运行数据，整体均延续走弱 ，其中出口再度走弱大幅低于市场预期，尤其是对美 出口同比跌幅继续加大与此前市场消息面感受出入最大，但符合我们长波周期下的基本预判，国内物 价方面也延续了双降格局，凸显消费疲弱趋势仍在延续中，银行货币方方面看似M1同比回升但主要 源于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market dynamics are influenced by overseas geopolitical conflicts, with a notable shift in investment sentiment observed in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25%, and the CSI 500 index down by 0.38% [3]. - Despite a brief period of stock and bond gains in the domestic market, the escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts led to a reversal in market performance [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Both China and the U.S. reported disappointing economic data, with China's exports significantly underperforming expectations, particularly in exports to the U.S., which saw a year-on-year decline [4]. - Domestic price levels continued to show a downward trend, indicating persistent consumer weakness, while the banking sector's monetary supply data suggested a marginal weakening despite a year-on-year increase in M1 due to a low base effect [4]. - In the U.S., the unexpected increase in the fiscal deficit raised concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies, and the labor market showed signs of weakening, reinforcing a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continued to increase their positions, which contrasts with the overall weakening of the index, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and fundamental data [5]. - The A-share market attempted to replicate the dual bull market of 2014, but current indicators do not confirm this trend, with the recent geopolitical events acting as a critical test for market resilience [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, reflecting the ongoing weak economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, a similar low position strategy is advised, as these sectors have also shown weakness in response to the geopolitical situation [5]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical industries as potential areas of interest [5].

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for A-share market timing, such as "Volume Model," "Low Volatility Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart CSI 300 Model," "Smart CSI 500 Model," "Limit-Up/Down Model," "Calendar Effect Model," "Long-Term Momentum Model," "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model," and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model"[1][10][11][12][13] - The report also includes a Hong Kong market timing model, specifically the "Turnover Inverse Volatility Model"[14][73] - The construction of these models is based on principles such as price-volume relationships, acceleration and trend analysis, momentum, limit-up/down patterns, and calendar effects. The models are designed to cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term cycles, forming a multi-strategy system[8][10][11] - The report evaluates the models qualitatively, stating that timing strategies should be simple and universal, emphasizing the importance of coupling signals from different models or cycles to achieve a balance between offensive and defensive strategies[8][10][11] - The latest signals from the models indicate mixed results: some models are bullish (e.g., Volume Model, Feature Volume Model, Limit-Up/Down Model, Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model, Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model), while others are neutral or bearish (e.g., Low Volatility Model, Feature Institutional Model, Smart CSI 300 Model, Smart CSI 500 Model)[10][11][12][13] - Backtesting results for specific models or factors are not explicitly detailed in the report, but the report mentions that the "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are bullish overall[13][72] - The Hong Kong market model, "Turnover Inverse Volatility Model," continues to show bullish signals for the Hang Seng Index[14][73]

特朗普施压美联储降息，称鲍威尔为"笨蛋" 美国总统特朗普周四将矛头对准美联储主席鲍威尔，称其为"笨蛋"，并要求降息2个百分点，称这样每 年能为美国节省6000亿美元。此前美国劳工部报告5月生产者价格涨幅低于预期，缓解了通胀担忧，特 朗普及其盟友加大对美联储的压力。市场对特朗普言论反应平淡，交易员认为下周美联储降息可能性 小，9月降息概率约76%。详情>> 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上今日财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及政策更 新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 以伊冲突升级致全球市场巨震，金融与地缘风险交织 当地时间6月13日，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，伊朗进行报复，双方冲突导致全球市场巨震。国际油价一 度暴涨，美股股指期货跳水，全球股市集体下挫，加密货币市场也受冲击，24万人爆仓。分析认为，冲 突可能扰乱中东石油供应，极端情况下伊朗或封锁霍尔木兹海峡。市场避险情绪高涨，黄金等避险资产 受追捧。后续局势发展及对市场的影响仍不确定。详情>> A股放量走低，受以伊冲突和关税摩擦影响 ...

6月13日，A股市场震荡调整，上证指数跌破3400点，深证成指、创业板指均跌逾1%，石油石化、国防 军工、公用事业行业逆势上涨。整个A股市场仅有849只股票上涨，逾60只股票涨停。市场成交放量， 成交额达1.50万亿元。 本周，A股市场震荡分化，上证指数、深证成指分别累计下跌0.25%、0.60%，创业板指累计上涨 0.21%。领涨概念板块从创新药、种业、稀土永磁、新消费到石油和军工，题材板块快速轮动，结构性 行情持续演绎。 分析人士认为，市场下方具有较强支撑，短期可能延续震荡偏强走势，因为短期经济延续修复趋势，流 动性维持宽松态势。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 A股市场震荡调整 6月13日，在外部扰动因素影响下，A股市场震荡调整。截至收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、 科创50指数、北证50指数分别下跌0.75%、1.10%、1.13%、0.51%、2.92%，上证指数报收3377点，创业 板指报收2043.82点。 大小盘股均出现调整，大盘股集中的上证50指数、沪深300指数分别下跌0.55%、0.72%，小微盘股集中 的中证1000指数、中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数分别下跌1.39%、2.03%、2.0 ...

盘后数据出炉。 6月13日，A股市场整体下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3377点，下跌0.75%；深证成指报10122.11点，下跌1.1%；创业板指 报2043.82点，下跌1.13%；北证50指数下跌2.92%。A股市场合计成交15041.29亿元，较上一交易日增加2003.68亿元。 1. A股市场主力资金净流出378.91亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出133.57亿元，尾盘净流出30.91亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出378.91亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2025-6-13 | -378. 91 | -133.57 | -30. 91 | -156.98 | | 2025-6-12 | -92. 69 | -48.78 | -3.05 | -5.42 | | 2025-6-11 | -49.92 | 2. 07 | -4. 27 | -5. 39 | | 2025-6-10 | -359.72 | -100 ...

6月13日财咨道收盘点评：今日，A 股市场走势低迷，呈现出全天震荡调整的态势。创业板指和深成指跌幅均超 1%，沪指也未能幸免。市场氛围冷清，资 金避险情绪浓重，油气、黄金、军工等避险方向成为市场热点。个股方面惨不忍睹，全市场超 4400 只个股下跌，上涨个股寥寥无几，市场赚钱效应近乎消 失。(财咨道投顾刘露文A0940624070007 观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。) 三、关注周末消息面，把握市场新动向 一、谨慎等待大盘企稳，避免盲目入场 当前大盘因地缘政治等因素出现放量调整，这种调整往往意味着市场处于不稳定状态，多空双方博弈激烈。此时盲目入场，就如同在波涛汹涌的海面上贸然 起航，极易遭遇风险。财咨道认为大盘企稳并非一蹴而就，需要一系列指标的验证。例如成交量的持续萎缩并稳定在一定水平，这意味着市场恐慌情绪得到 缓解，抛压逐渐减轻。同时，指数需要在某个区间内持续震荡整理，形成有效的支撑位。财咨道认为在这个过程中，市场会逐渐修复自身的运行节奏，投资 者应保持耐心，密切关注大盘的走势变化。过早入场可能会陷入深套的困境，而等待大盘企稳后再行动。就像在暴风雨过后，海面恢复平静时再出海，才能 更顺利地抵达目的地 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3377.00 points, down 0.75%, with a trading volume of 605.39 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10122.11 points, down 1.1%, with a trading volume of 861.86 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2043.82 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 410.51 billion yuan [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 972.94 points, down 0.51%, with a trading volume of 34.04 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was 1467.25 billion yuan, an increase of 195.46 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and precious metals [2] - Weak sectors included beauty and personal care, media, food and beverage, light industry manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, automotive, education, and computer industries [2] - The top gainers in the market were concentrated in chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and national defense industries [2] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 795 stocks rose, while 4264 stocks fell, with 72 stocks remaining flat and 20 stocks suspended [2] - 63 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 21 stocks hit the daily limit down [2] - The most popular stock with a limit up was Yingli Automotive, with a closing limit up order of 38.51 million shares [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 37.89 billion yuan [6] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 17.09 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 7.94 billion yuan [6] - The national defense and military industry had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 2.12 billion yuan [7] - The computer industry had the largest net outflow, totaling 6.57 billion yuan [7] Notable Stocks - Hai Neng Da had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 852 million yuan, with a price increase of 10.03% [11] - BYD experienced the largest net outflow of main funds, totaling 1.381 billion yuan, with a price decrease of 2.05% [14] - 48 stocks had a net inflow of over 100 million yuan, while 104 stocks had a net outflow of over 100 million yuan [10][13] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net selling of approximately 244 million yuan, with New Jin Power being the top net buyer at 45.15 million yuan [16] - The top net selling stock by institutions was Zhongman Petroleum, with a net selling amount of approximately 142 million yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net capital inflow and outflow across various industries, indicating a significant divergence in market performance, with defense and military industries seeing substantial inflows while the computer industry faced the largest outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary Positive Capital Inflow - The defense and military industry experienced a net capital inflow of 2.57 billion, with a price change of 1.72% and a trading volume increase of 124.60% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The oil and gas industry saw a net inflow of 1.51 billion, with a price increase of 2.05% and a trading volume increase of 163.08% [1]. Negative Capital Outflow - The computer industry had the largest net capital outflow of 7.04 billion, with a price decline of 1.89% and a trading volume increase of 16.53% [2]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector faced a net outflow of 3.78 billion, with a price drop of 2.04% [2]. - The media industry recorded a net outflow of 5.72 billion, with a price decrease of 2.53% [2]. Other Notable Industries - The banking sector had a slight net inflow of 0.83 billion, with a price decline of 0.92% [1]. - The real estate industry experienced a net outflow of 4.62 billion, with a price drop of 1.55% [1].