投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 论 逻辑: 从现货运价端来看,马士基已发布 3 月第一周欧洲航线运价,报价维持 2000 美元，维持 2 月水平,船司此前 提出的 3 月涨价预期并未兑现。马士基延续稳健务实的定价策略,行业内其余船司及航运联盟大概率初期同步跟进 该定价水平;若春节后货量复苏力度偏弱,现货运价存在进一步下调可能,整体运行节奏或与 2025年同期相仿。 本周春节前最后一个交易周,新挂牌合约成交活跃度偏低。后续需重点关注其他船司 3 月运价的跟进情况、节后货 量修复进度,以及前期港口拥堵所引发的运力被动空班变动。短期盘面维持区间震荡格局。 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/12 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector is experiencing a strong performance, with the shipbuilding ETF (560710) showing significant gains due to heightened geopolitical tensions and increased demand for shipping services, particularly in oil transportation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, the shipping sector strengthened, with the shipbuilding ETF (560710) reaching an intraday increase of 3.15%, closing with a gain of 2.20% [1] - Key stocks in the index, such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy, hit the daily limit, while China Merchants South Oil and China Shipbuilding Defense saw increases exceeding 4% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Since 2026, geopolitical tensions have escalated, leading to increased optimism among shipowners and a rise in overseas shipowners controlling the market [1] - Recent oil shipping rates have remained high, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE maintaining above $120,000 [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Research institutions suggest that the aging global fleet and structural changes due to decarbonization in the shipping industry will provide long-term support [1] - In the short term, the synergy between oil and bulk shipping is expected to elevate freight rates, which may benefit the upstream shipbuilding industry [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in the shipping-related industry are encouraged to consider the shipbuilding ETF (560710), which tracks the CSI Selected Shipping Industry Index (932420) [1] - This ETF includes 40 representative listed companies involved in ship materials, ship supporting, ship manufacturing, and shipping, facilitating investment in the marine economy sector [1]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-12 主力合约短期走势震荡，关注节后马士基3月第二周开价态 度 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价 1205/1910（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期报价1135/1835，2月下半 月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1359/229 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Qianhai has achieved significant economic growth, with GDP nearly doubling and modern service industry value increasing over 100% [1][2] - The region's focus on reform, innovation, and deepening cooperation with Hong Kong has led to substantial improvements in key economic indicators [2][3] Economic Growth - Qianhai's GDP is projected to grow from 175.57 billion yuan to 331.81 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, nearly doubling [2] - The added value of the modern service industry is expected to rise from 96.41 billion yuan to 218.20 billion yuan, representing over 100% growth [2] - The region's import and export volume is anticipated to increase from 378.05 billion yuan to 757.43 billion yuan, achieving a doubling effect [2] Investment and Foreign Capital - Over the past five years, Qianhai has completed fixed asset investments exceeding 700 billion yuan [2] - Actual foreign capital utilization reached 157.52 billion yuan, with 29.32 billion yuan utilized in 2025, accounting for 58.1% of Shenzhen's total [2] Institutional Innovation - Qianhai has replicated and promoted 105 institutional innovation achievements nationwide over the past five years [2] - The region's institutional innovation index has ranked first among national free trade zones for four consecutive years [2] Modern Service Industry Development - Qianhai has established 18 specialized industrial clusters, with ship leasing assets exceeding 20 billion yuan, ranking first in South China and third nationally [3] - The area has attracted 183 Fortune Global 500 companies and 42 regional and functional headquarters of global service providers [3] Deepening Hong Kong Cooperation - There are 11,065 Hong Kong-funded enterprises in Qianhai, with over 10,000 Hong Kong residents employed in the area [3] - 26 categories of Hong Kong and Macau professionals can practice in Qianhai without taking mainland qualification exams, facilitating cross-border professional services [3] Living Standards and Healthcare - The Qianhai Hong Kong-Macau Youth Dream Factory has incubated 1,632 entrepreneurial teams, raising a total of 7.2 billion yuan in financing [4] - The "Hong Kong-Macau Drug and Medical Device Access" initiative has achieved full coverage in local hospitals, benefiting over 1,700 patients [4] Business Environment Optimization - Qianhai has implemented "instant approval" for business establishment and introduced reforms that save companies approximately 38 million yuan annually [5] - The region has launched a provincial-level service platform for enterprises going abroad, offering 70 public services [5] Internationalization and Urban Development - The "Qianhai Land Space Planning (2025-2035)" has been implemented, establishing a spatial pattern that promotes connectivity and urban development [6] - Major infrastructure projects, including the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor and various rail lines, are enhancing transportation networks [6] Future Development Plans - In 2026, Qianhai will focus on six key tasks, including building a modern industrial system and enhancing international competitiveness [7] - The region aims to implement new measures to boost trade and investment, targeting a 6% growth in total imports and exports [8] Regional Cooperation and Talent Attraction - Qianhai plans to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong, including the establishment of a dual-headquarters base and facilitating cross-border logistics [8] - New policies will support Hong Kong youth and provide high-quality services for talent from Hong Kong and Macau [8] Urban Center Development - Qianhai aims to create a future urban center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, emphasizing internationalization and cultural integration [9] - The region will implement various urban development projects to enhance its appeal as a modern coastal city [9] Political and Organizational Support - Qianhai is committed to strengthening political foundations for development through innovative party-building efforts and governance [10] - The region aims to align its development with national and local policies, ensuring comprehensive and coordinated growth [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.89%, down 242 points, closing at 27,024 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.68% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 127.3 billion [1] Company Highlights - Zhizhu (02513) saw its stock price increase by over 24% as its new flagship model GLM-5 has been adapted to major domestic chip platforms like Huawei Ascend [1] - MiniMax (00100) experienced a rise of over 14% [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) refuted rumors regarding CSP order cancellations, with strong capital expenditure growth in North American CSPs, leading to an 11% increase in its stock price [1] - Oriental Electric (600875) rose by over 11% as Citigroup noted a higher likelihood of new orders from Southeast Asian data centers or utility customers [1] - Harbin Electric (01133.HK) increased by 7.8% [1] - Tianyu Semiconductor (02658) gained 4.9% after forming a strategic partnership with EYEQ Lab, focusing on silicon carbide epitaxial wafer supply and applications [1] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) (03986) rose by over 7% following a surge in the U.S. memory sector, with strong demand expected to continue into next year [2] - CIMC Enric (03899) increased by 2.8% as JPMorgan expressed positive expectations for its Indonesian coke oven gas project, marking a step forward in the company's overseas expansion [3] - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) (01138) surged by over 10%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 80%, amid reports of the U.S. considering seizing Iranian oil tankers [4] - China Nuclear International (02302) rose by over 6% due to increased transaction volume in uranium trading, significantly boosting annual revenue and profit [5] - Budweiser APAC (01876) fell by over 4%, dragging down the Hang Seng Index, as its Q4 loss widened to USD 105 million [6]

EEAE FA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1177.9 | 涨跌 -0.09% | 基差 480.0 | 昨日成交量 17204 | | 昨日持仓量 33027 | 持仓变动 -872 | | | EC2605 EC2606 | | 1275.3 1501.0 | 0.18% 0.08% | 382.6 156.9 | 84 રે રેસ્ટર | | 214 14185 | -14 Fires | | | EC2607 | | 1719.9 | 0.08% | -62.0 | 42 | | 119 | 14 | | | EC2608 | | 1581.0 | 0.30% | 76.9 | 263 | | 1371 | -45 | | | EC2609 | | 1240.0 | 0.40% | 417.9 | 64 | | 134 | 7 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 110 ...

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant changes in asset allocation logic and industry dynamics due to the ongoing low interest rate environment and fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations, which led traders to push back the anticipated rate cut to July [1] - The low interest rate environment is accelerating the financialization of residents' asset allocation, with a shift from low-risk assets like cash and deposits to equity assets in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is seeing a decline in the average interest rate for new loans, which has dropped to 3.15% as of December 2025, with expectations of stabilization at low levels [2] - The express delivery sector shows strong demand resilience, with industry leader Zhongtong Express enhancing shareholder returns through low-interest convertible bonds [2] - The construction and decoration industry is benefiting from improved bond issuance data, with increased financing for infrastructure projects supported by special bonds and state-owned enterprise orders remaining stable [3] Group 3 - The precious metals sector, particularly gold, is viewed positively in the medium to long term due to macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3] - The copper market is supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate and gradually recovering domestic demand [3] - The aluminum industry is characterized by a strong demand against weak supply, with clear expectations for price increases [3]

天津市副市长谢元表示，下一步，我们将聚焦滨海新区产业优势，强化产业承载主体功能，向创新协同 与区域带动延伸，深度融入"六链五群"产业布局，推动技术联合攻关、科技资源开放共享、应用场景联 建联用，合力建设世界级先进制造业集群，推动先进制造业与现代服务业深度融合，打造以实体经济为 支撑的现代化产业体系。聚焦世界一流的智慧、绿色、枢纽港口建设，以天津港为龙头，全方位深化津 冀港口联盟合作，强化北方国际航运核心区功能，打造便捷出海口。深入推进港产城融合发展，加快天 津现代海洋城市建设。聚焦全面深化改革开放，充分总结现有综合配套改革经验，创新推出一批首创 性、制度性、系统性改革举措，重点推进协同发展体制机制改革，为首都都市圈发展作出更多探索。充 分发挥国家级新区体制机制、产业基础等方面的优势，释放国家级开发区潜能，实施自贸试验区提升战 略，提升滨海新区创新引领力、产业支撑力和开放竞争力。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

Group 1 - The A500 Index (000510) increased by 0.38% as of February 12, 2026, with notable gains from stocks such as Jingchen Co. (+13.30%), Tianfu Communication (+10.56%), and China Merchants Energy (+9.98%) [1] - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) saw a trading volume of 62.76 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 15.54%, indicating active market participation [1] - Over the past three months, the A500 ETF Fund (512050) experienced a significant growth of 208.59 billion yuan in scale [1] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities reported that as of February 9, 2026, 37.16% of companies had issued positive earnings forecasts, indicating an improvement in profitability [1] - Debon Securities anticipates that the spring market will continue, with a focus on policy-driven sectors such as photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals [2] - The A500 Index comprises 500 securities selected from various industries based on market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [2]