Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity, guide interest rates, and support the resolution of debt risks in financing platforms while ensuring the stable operation of financial markets [2]. - In January - February this year, China's fiscal revenue was 4.42 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and fiscal expenditure was 4.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, showing a front - loaded spending pattern. Tax revenue was 3.64 trillion yuan, with a 0.1% increase, and securities transaction stamp duty increased by 1.1 times [2]. - The US is taking measures to maintain oil price stability. Trump has informed Israel to stop attacking Iranian energy facilities, the US Treasury Secretary may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the next few days and release strategic oil reserves, and the White House said the US will not impose an oil export ban [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs A - share Market - The major A - share market indexes fell across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%. The market turnover was about 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - The A - share market's total market capitalization was 111.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.01 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The PE (TTM) was 22.83x, and the PB (MRQ) was 5.87x. The margin trading balance decreased by 25.72379 billion yuan compared to a month ago [9]. Industry Performance - The top - rising sectors were coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and public utilities, with the coal sector rising 1.82%. The top - falling sectors were non - ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, with the non - ferrous metals sector dropping 6.10% [3]. - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds were public utilities, non - banking finance, and coal. The top three sectors in terms of net inflow of funds at the end of the trading day were petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, and light industry manufacturing [15]. Global Market - The major stock indexes in the Asia - Pacific, European, and US markets all declined. The Nikkei 225 index tumbled 3.38%, the KOSPI index fell 2.73%, the German DAX index dropped 2.82%, and the UK FTSE 100 index declined 2.35%. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.44%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.27%, and the Nasdaq index declined 0.28% [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Market - The US dollar index closed at 99.18, down 1.11%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 6.8824, down 0.28%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.815%, down 0.54BP, and DR007 was 1.427%, down 0.61BP [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 13 to March 19, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. The price changes during this period are also shown, with decreases in most cases [1]. Output and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Market Overview - On March 19, the three major indices fell over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.39% and briefly falling below the 4000-point mark[3] - The total trading volume reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 70 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - All sectors except for oil, coal, banking, and utilities experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel leading the losses[1] - The leading stocks in the communication and new energy sectors showed high volatility, while the leading stocks in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors exhibited weaker performance[2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[4] - The central bank aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing aligns with economic growth and price expectations[4] Industry Dynamics - In February 2026, 75.49% of the green certificates issued were related to renewable energy projects, with a total of 1.98 billion certificates issued[7] - Over 30 production companies have increased the specifications and prices of rebar by 20-50 yuan per ton, with some regions seeing increases of up to 80 yuan per ton[9] Fundraising Trends - On March 18, 11 new funds exceeded 1 billion yuan in size, with active equity funds and FOFs making up 7 of these funds[12] - The total scale of FOFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan for the first time, driven by high demand and rapid sales[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [2][4][7] 2. Core Views - The steel market is waiting for the peak season. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The inventory pressure restricts the steel price, and the peak - season destocking amplitude will affect the price. The Middle - East situation supports the steel price bottom, and steel prices will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term [1] - The iron ore market sentiment is poor, and the price is oscillating downward. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the high inventory suppresses the price in the long run [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, and both are in range - bound oscillations. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the coke supply - demand contradiction is limited [5][6] - The terminal restocking of thermal coal has recovered, and the coal price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the consumption is seasonally weak. The non - power coal demand in the off - season has a great impact on the coal supply and demand [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials trading volume was 89900 tons, and the spot trading was weak. This week, the rebar output increased, the apparent demand soared, and the inventory was destocked again; the hot - rolled coil output increased slightly, the apparent demand improved, and the inventory was destocked [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. Building materials maintain weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slightly higher than the same period. The output of plates is relatively high, and the demand is also resilient, with greater inventory pressure than building materials. With the peak consumption season approaching, the supply - demand of steel is expected to improve. The inventory pressure restricts the steel price, and the Middle - East situation supports the price bottom [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fell slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 613000 tons, a 18.34% increase from the previous day. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2281500 tons, an increase of 69500 tons from the previous period, and the port inventory decreased slightly [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The high ore price stimulates the iron ore supply, and the supply pressure increases. The pig iron output has significantly rebounded. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the high inventory suppresses the price in the long run [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coal price in the production area rose slightly, and the spot market of coke at the port was stable. The coal mine output increased, the mine inventory decreased, the downstream coking enterprises stocked up, and the total inventory increased; the coke output increased slightly, and the total inventory was stable with a slight increase [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the domestic coal mine resumption is accelerating, and the supply is relatively loose. The high raw material inventory of downstream restricts the purchasing enthusiasm. For coke, the coking profit is good, the coking enterprises are resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited [6] - **Strategy**: The coking coal and coke strategies are both to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal price in the main production area rose slightly, and the port price rebounded. The terminal restocking of metallurgy and chemical industries was active, and the trading at the port improved. The import trading was cold due to the increase in freight and the price inversion [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the Two Sessions, and the consumption is seasonally weak. The non - power coal demand in the off - season has a great impact on the coal supply and demand [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy content is provided in the text

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock and Bullish" rating for the steel and ore sector in the black building materials industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report expects the steel and ore market to fluctuate. For trading strategies, it suggests gradually closing long positions in steel and ore, continuing to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and considering going long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all closed down. During the night session, rebar and iron ore closed up, while hot - rolled coil closed flat [1] Important Information - On March 17, relevant Chinese departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle industry, aiming to standardize competition order and promote development [1] - As of March 17, the total US federal debt reached $39,016,762,910,245.14, breaking through the $39 - trillion mark [1] - From January to February, China's cumulative crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; pig iron production was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; steel production was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [1] - The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and maintain market liquidity [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel "independently" attacked an Iranian gas field and would follow Trump's "pause" request for subsequent air strikes on energy facilities [1] Market Logic - On March 19, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port fell [1] - On March 19, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, down 20 yuan [1] - On March 19, the spot market of port coke was stable. The total inventory of the two ports increased compared to the previous working day [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3982 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,500 tons or 2.3%; the total inventory was 19.4623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 286,600 tons or 1.5%; the apparent consumption was 8.6828 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory continued to decline [1] - This week, the daily pig iron output was 2.2818 million tons, an increase of 69,500 tons. The profitability rate was 42.42%, a 1.29% increase from last week [2] Trading Strategies - The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are estimated. For rebar, the support is 3000 and the pressure is 3200; for hot - rolled coil, the support is 3180 and the pressure is 3350; for iron ore, the support is 750 and the pressure is 840 [2] - For single - side trading, gradually close long positions in steel and ore. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, with a suggested stop - loss spread of 130 and a take - profit spread of about 200. Consider going long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore, aiming for the ratio to rise above 4 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in various sectors [20][21][116] - Different industries are facing different challenges and opportunities. For example, the energy sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while the agricultural sector is influenced by factors such as production and demand [26][30][116] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - selling momentum was released. On Thursday, the stock index tumbled, affected by factors such as the Fed's decision and the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The short - term stock index will still fluctuate due to news and wait for the situation to become clearer. Trading strategies include grid operations for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The foreign market risk appetite slightly stabilized. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the bond market still lacks substantial positive drivers, and the upward space is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure increased, and the market fluctuated widely. The US soybean and soybean meal prices are affected by both fundamentals and the macro - environment. It is recommended to slightly layout long positions, but the space is limited [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices soared, and domestic sugar prices followed. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, supporting international sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The recommended strategy includes going long unilaterally, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling put options [29][30][31] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the supply and demand of oils are in a state of uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [32][33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions led to high - level fluctuations in the market. The US corn price is strong, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on dips and widening the spread between 05 corn and starch [35][36][37] - **Hogs**: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and hog prices continued to decline. Due to factors such as high inventory and relatively strong feed prices, hog prices are under pressure. It is recommended to close previous short positions [38][39] - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were strong, and the futures market fluctuated strongly. Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and the price of related products. It is recommended to go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [40][41][42] - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed of apples was acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods was firm. The fundamentals of apples are strong, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45][46] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provided support, and steel prices maintained a fluctuating trend. The production of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased. Affected by overseas and raw material factors, steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [49][50] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market fluctuated greatly, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The price of coking coal is affected by both energy and industrial product attributes. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][52][53] - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increased, and spot hedging at high levels was the main strategy. The iron ore price has risen rapidly, but the supply is still in a relatively loose pattern. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high levels [54][55][56] - **Ferroalloys**: Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on manganese ore, and the price fluctuated strongly. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a positive feedback state of demand and cost. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [58][59] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The escalation of geopolitical tensions increased concerns about interest rate hikes, and gold and silver were under pressure. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and the expectation of interest rate hikes, gold and silver prices are expected to face a period of "headwinds" in the short - term. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a short - term bearish view [61][62][63] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The marginal easing of the Middle East conflict led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The market for platinum and palladium is affected by geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - spread trading when the price difference is low [66][67] - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continued, and copper prices fluctuated at a low level. The copper price is affected by the situation in the Middle East and supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to macro changes [68][69] - **Alumina**: Alumina prices declined with market sentiment. Guinea's potential reduction in bauxite exports and new domestic production capacity will affect the supply of alumina. The price is expected to be under pressure [70][71][72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns jointly expanded, and aluminum prices weakened. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the financial attribute of aluminum prices is significantly dragged down [73][74][75] - **Cast Aluminum Alloys**: Macro - expectations had a negative impact, and the market was under pressure along with aluminum prices. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the market is under pressure [77][78] - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to macro and capital sentiment. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The price may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [81][82][83] - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The current price is in a weak - fluctuation state [85][86][87] - **Nickel**: The short - term price was dominated by the macro - environment. The nickel price is affected by both macro - factors and industrial fundamentals, and it is recommended to be cautious [88] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by global economic concerns and cost factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize [91] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Israel stated that it would suspend air strikes on energy facilities, and oil prices maintained a high - level fluctuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the container shipping market is facing cost and demand uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to military deployments and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situations [105][106][107] - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The reduction in Guinea's bauxite exports in April may limit the rental height of large ships. The dry - bulk shipping market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. The long - term impact of the Middle East conflict on the market needs to be observed [108][109][110] - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still dominated by over - the - counter agreement transactions, and EU carbon futures continue to decline. The Chinese carbon market is expected to have increased trading activity in the medium - term, while the EU carbon market is facing policy and energy - related uncertainties [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances increased the amplitude of the market. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price maintains high volatility. It is recommended to go long at a high level [115][116][118] - **Asphalt**: Supply was tight, demand was weak, and concerns about raw materials continued. Affected by the Middle East conflict, the supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [119][120] - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost fluctuated at a high level. The fuel - oil market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract on dips and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels [122][123] - **LPG**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, and the market was strong. The LPG price is affected by oil prices and supply disruptions. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [125][126][127] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continued, and the upward trend remained unchanged. The natural - gas market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions. It is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options on TTF futures [128][129][130] - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, PX and PTA may face supply shortages. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [132][133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The shortage of raw - material supply led to an improved market outlook. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, the supply of benzene and styrene may be affected. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [135][136][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has entered a de - stocking pattern. Affected by raw - material supply and import reduction, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [139] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuated within a range. The short - fiber market is affected by raw - material prices and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [141][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory continued to decline. The bottle - chip market is affected by production restarts and seasonal demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [143][144] - **Propylene**: Supply was tight. The propylene market is affected by cost and supply factors. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145][146] - **Plastic PP**: The gross profit of MTO - made PP increased. The plastic and PP markets are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to hold long positions in relevant contracts [147][148][149] - **Caustic Soda**: The market was weak. The caustic - soda market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [150][151][152] - **PVC**: The market mainly fluctuated. The PVC market is affected by international supply reduction and domestic supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips [153][155] - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The soda - ash market is affected by supply, demand, and macro - factors. The price is expected to continue to be weak [156][157][159] - **Glass**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The glass market is affected by real - estate demand and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with a downward trend [160][161][162] - **Methanol**: It remained firm at a high level. Affected by the situation in Iran, the supply of methanol is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be strong [163][164][165] - **Urea**: It fluctuated weakly. The urea market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand relationships and policies. The price is expected to fluctuate [166][167] - **Pulp**: The port inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pressure was relieved. The pulp market is still in a state of oversupply, but the inventory reduction provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a small amount of long - position layout [168][169][170] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The transaction was average, and the market had only rigid - demand purchases. The offset - printing - paper market is affected by supply - demand relationships and raw - material prices. It is recommended to go short on rallies [171][172][173] - **Logs**: The increase in import costs supported the market's upward trend. The log market is affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [173][174][175] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The RU warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. The natural - rubber market is affected by factors such as inventory and tire production. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU contract and consider short - selling the NR contract [177][178][180] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of tires increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The butadiene - rubber market is affected by factors such as tire production and macro - factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR contract [184][185][186]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index by over 10% [15]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are likely to benefit aluminum prices, while the value of gold as an investment is becoming increasingly apparent [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery across various metals, including copper and aluminum, amidst ongoing supply chain challenges [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to optimize the steel industry, promoting high-quality production and reducing excess capacity, which may enhance steel demand in infrastructure and construction sectors [8]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Sector - The aluminum prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME aluminum rising by 4.0% to $3,520 per ton, and SHFE aluminum increasing by 1.0% to ¥24,960 per ton [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing impact of Middle Eastern supply issues and the seasonal recovery in demand [7]. Copper Sector - The copper market is experiencing slight inventory accumulation, with LME copper prices at $12,758 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resource reserves, such as Zijin Mining and China Gold International [11]. Precious Metals - The report notes a decline in gold prices, with SHFE gold at ¥1,133.0 per gram and London spot gold at $5,018.1 per ounce, indicating a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% and 2.4% respectively [7]. - It suggests that the current volatility in gold prices may stabilize as market conditions improve [7]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 15.5% week-on-week, with the price reaching ¥1,045,000 per ton [7]. - The report indicates potential growth in export demand for non-restricted rare earth products due to new regulations [7]. Steel Sector - The report notes a week-on-week increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices rising by 1.7% and 2.0% respectively [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive demand for steel through infrastructure projects and urban development [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the aluminum sector such as Shenhuo Group and China Aluminum, as well as steel companies like Baosteel and Shougang [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Iron ore, LLDPE, PP, benzene, soda ash, styrene, sugar, container shipping index (European line) [47][83][109][115][130][142][159] - **Negative Outlook**: Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, palm oil, soybean oil, eggs, live pigs [26][40][44][120][150][167][171] - **Neutral Outlook**: Gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, log, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, short - fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, peanuts [6][9][12][15][18][22][24][28][36][41][49][53][56][61][64][68][73][76][84][89][96][99][105][132][135][173] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities such as energy and metals. For example, the conflict affects the supply of oil and gas, leading to price fluctuations in related products. At the same time, factors such as inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and market demand also play important roles in determining commodity prices. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations. Gold prices have declined, and silver has fallen from the shock platform. The prices of both have been affected by factors such as exchange rates and market sentiment [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. The production in Zambia is expected to increase, and some mines have suspended operations [9]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals provide support, and the price has stabilized [12]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline [15]. - **Tin**: After a decline, it has partially recovered [18]. - **Aluminum**: The market is panicked, with significant fluctuations. Alumina is supported by cost, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Macro - risk preferences put pressure on prices, while contradictions in the ore end limit the downward elasticity. Stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, with cost support [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil, and the price remains high in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward momentum has slowed, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market continues to rise [120]. - **P - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: P - xylene and PTA are in a short - term shock market, while MEG has a tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [68]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber is in a weak shock state, and synthetic rubber fluctuates widely at a high level [73][76]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has a shrinking cracking supply and poor cost transmission. PP has limited supply, good export prospects, and a risk - free window for futures and spot trading [80]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price fluctuates widely [84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price fluctuates widely [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [96]. - **Methanol**: It shows a strong shock trend [99]. - **Urea**: The price fluctuates widely [105]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a strong shock state [109][139]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [112]. - **PVC**: The price fluctuates widely [119]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is at a high level and prone to panic, with a risk of correction. Soybean oil has limited driving factors, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [144]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans in the producing areas follows the adjustment of the futures price, and the futures price may fluctuate [151]. - **Corn**: It runs in a shock state [154]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar is strengthening, and the price is in a strong shock state [157]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to external market fluctuations [161]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a weak shock state [166]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has weakened again, and the weight - reduction drive is approaching [169]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [173]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contract is stronger than the far - term one, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should continue to be held [45]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the prices fluctuate widely [49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: They fluctuate widely due to sector sentiment resonance and potential weather - related impacts on Australian ore exports [53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices fluctuate widely [56]. - **Thermal Coal**: The port price is strengthening, and market expectations are divided [61]. - **Log**: The cost has increased, and the price fluctuates at a high level [64]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The price fluctuates widely, and attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances [122]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: They fluctuate at a high level [132]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see [135].