节能降碳是积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和、全面推进美丽中国建设、促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重 要举措。 节能降碳为何如此重要？气候债券倡议组织（CBI）中国区总经理谢文泓对《证券日报》记者表 示："节能降碳见效快、确定性高，不依赖重大技术突破，是当前阶段成本最低、回报稳定、可操作性 最强的减排路径，有助于在短期内稳定减排成效。通过降低单位产出的能源消耗和排放强度，节能降碳 能够有效缓解能源安全和能源成本压力，在稳增长与绿色转型之间形成良性协同。同时，节能降碳也是 推动产业技术升级、优化投资结构、促进高质量发展的重要切入口。" 钢铁、石化、有色、建材等高耗能行业任务尤其艰巨，主要通过产能控制、节能技术改造等供给侧约束 来实现节能降碳的目标。例如，钢铁行业严禁以其他名义新增产能；有色金属行业落实电解铝产能置 换；建材行业严格执行水泥、玻璃产能置换。 "从重点领域看，节能降碳工作主要集中在工业、建筑、交通和能源等高能耗、高排放行业，并正逐步 向产业链上下游和终端消费环节延伸。总体而言，中国在节能降碳领域已走在国际前列。"谢文泓表 示。 从东海之滨的零碳智慧园区，到西北戈壁的光伏治沙项目；从钢铁厂的余热发电系统，到化工 ...

- The report mentions an A-share timing model, specifically a "wave model" that turned bullish mid-week, marking the first shift to a higher position since November 14, 2025. This model is used to determine optimal entry points for A-share investments based on market signals [1][29] - A short-term timing model for A-shares also turned bullish on major broad-based indices on Friday, indicating a positive outlook for traditional sectors such as consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing [1][29] - The report highlights a "position timing strategy" for the A-share market, which is used to adjust equity exposure based on market conditions. This strategy is supported by historical net value data and performance metrics [11][12] - A "multi-long-short timing strategy" for the A-share market is also discussed, which involves leveraging long and short positions in futures to optimize returns. This strategy is visualized through net value curves and position recommendations [13][14] - The report includes a "dividend growth timing strategy" for A-shares, focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential. This strategy is designed to capture returns from dividend-paying stocks while managing risk [21] - A "small and micro-cap timing strategy" for A-shares is mentioned, targeting smaller market capitalization stocks for potential higher returns. This strategy is based on specific timing signals for small-cap stocks [17][18] - The report also discusses a "Hong Kong stock position timing strategy," which adjusts exposure to Hong Kong equities based on macroeconomic and market signals. This strategy emphasizes resilience and flexibility in sectors like central enterprises and internet companies [15] - A "gold timing strategy" is included, which maintains a medium position in gold while avoiding silver due to uncertain market conditions. This strategy is based on the U.S. dollar index and other macroeconomic factors [22] - The report outlines "ETF portfolio strategies," including equity-biased and bond-biased portfolios. These strategies are designed to optimize returns through diversified ETF investments, with performance tracked through net value curves [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

中信证券：从创新高的ETF看跨年品种选择 360个行业/主题ETF当中，39个在12月创了新高。在有共识度的品种当中，老品种是通信和有色相关ETF，对 应着北美AI基建和资源品逻辑；新品种是商业航天相关ETF（包括军工），属于市场震荡阶段活跃资金的进攻 选择，与曾经的低空主题相近。无论是通信、有色还是商业航天，一个共同的特点是都代表了中美在下一代跨 国界基础设施建设上的竞争，这是市场共识度最高的方向。 当然还有一些关注度开始提升，缺乏产业讨论热度，但默默上涨并在近期创年内新高的品种，如化工、工程机 械等品种，这些方向代表了中国制造业在全球竞争优势向定价权的转变。此外，还有一些与反内卷相关的品种 （如新能源、钢铁）也在重新爬坡，反内卷的相关催化可能在明年一季度密集出现。 从配置策略来看，我们依旧认为超预期的内需变化出现前，还是以结构性机会主导的震荡市思维应对，这是跨 年配置选择的一个基本框架，热度和持仓集中度较低，但关注度开始提升且长期ROE有提升空间的板块是首选 （如化工、工程机械、新能源等），一些新产业题材（如商业航天）可能还会反复发酵，同时我们依旧高度关 注并跟踪人民币升值的趋势与相应机会，券商和保险是站 ...

南华期货钢材周报 ——短期尚无驱动，区间震荡 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面方面，成材自身的矛盾基本面不大，整体维持减产和去库的趋势，上周热卷的消费量环比边际改善明 显，但不排除可能是在出口管制生效前的抢出口行为，还需关注后续的需求的持续性。供应端由于高炉和电 炉的利润近期回升较多，成材减产的力度可能减弱，上周螺纹和热卷的产量均小幅增加，但终端需求萎靡， 工地陆续停工，北方已经进入季节性淡季，螺纹需求降速虽放缓但仍处于低位，若螺纹产量继续增加而消费 并无起色，螺纹钢未来去库趋势可能放缓。铁水产量上周环比微增，但是否见底还需观察，铁水产量的微增 支撑了铁矿价格的强势，目前铁矿港口库存继续累库，铁矿上方亦有压力，但结构上钢厂库存相较于往年偏 低，有补库需求的支撑 ，铁矿价格可能区间震荡。焦煤矿山库存和港口库存维持累库状态，蒙古通关量维持 在高位，蒙古口岸库存也维持累库趋势，整体看焦煤的供应相对宽松，限制焦煤的上涨空间。近期商品市场 偏暖也部分带动了钢材价格的上涨，但受制于现 ...

A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251220-20251226） 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21.6 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 81%和 42%分位； ✓ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, with a rating reflecting an expected increase in the industry performance compared to the broader market [85]. Core Insights - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for steel mills is reported at -31.2 yuan per ton, with a profitability rate of 37.2% for steel companies, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals [10][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices showed mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3342 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan from the previous week. The market sentiment is weak, primarily driven by low-price promotions for transactions [11]. - The coking coal market is experiencing weak performance, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week. The demand for coking coal remains subdued due to reduced consumption by downstream coke enterprises [12]. - Iron ore prices have slightly increased, with the average price for 61.5% Fe powder at 795 yuan per ton, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains constrained due to high port inventories [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index rose by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for long and short process steel production is reported at -9.7 yuan and -7.4 yuan per ton, respectively [10]. 1.2 Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a noted decrease in prices across major markets. The market is characterized by weak demand and low speculative sentiment, with a focus on essential inventory replenishment [11]. 2.1 Profitability - The profitability rate for steel companies stands at 37.2%, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals despite negative profit margins [10]. 2.2 Operating Rates - The operating rates for steel mills are reported at 78.32%, with daily average pig iron production remaining stable, reflecting a cautious approach to raw material replenishment [13]. 3.1 Steel Prices - The average price for hot-rolled coils is reported at 3342 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease noted in the previous week [11]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coking coal prices remain stable at 1393 yuan per ton, while iron ore prices have seen a slight increase, indicating mixed trends in raw material pricing [12][13]. 4.1 Steel Supply and Demand Data - The report highlights the supply and demand dynamics within the steel industry, with a focus on the impact of environmental regulations and production adjustments by steel mills [11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the steel industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese government is committed to controlling crude steel production, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to curb low-quality competition and regulate production capacity [2]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's crude steel production was 892 million tons, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, while steel product output increased by 4.0% to 1.333 billion tons. This suggests a shift in production focus and an anticipated improvement in the supply side of the market [2]. - The report notes that the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore mine is expected to contribute significantly to iron ore supply, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices and reduce cost pressures on steel companies [2]. - Demand is expected to show structural differentiation, with resilient demand in the manufacturing sector supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while the construction sector remains weak [2]. - The report suggests that as the steel consumption structure shifts from construction to manufacturing, investors should focus on undervalued, high-dividend stocks in the plate sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, as well as high-end stainless steel and special steel companies like Jiuli Special Materials and CITIC Special Steel [2]. Summary by Sections Production Control - The government has announced ongoing measures to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of new capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side of the steel market [2]. Raw Material Supply - The Simandou iron ore mine has commenced production, with an expected annual capacity of 12 million tons, contributing to a more favorable pricing environment for iron ore [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a divergence in demand, with manufacturing-related sectors showing resilience, while construction demand remains weak [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the manufacturing-oriented steel sector and highlights the importance of special steel in emerging sectors like energy and defense [2].

2025 年 12 月 28 日 行业研究 热卷库存处于 5 年同期最高水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.22-12.28） 要点 流动性：金价创历史新高水平。（1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 12 月值为 47.15，环比上月-10.19%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在 较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 11 月为-3.1 个百分点，环 比-1.10 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格为 4533 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：热卷库存处于 5 年同期最高水平。（1）本周价格变动： 螺纹-1.20%、水泥价格指数-0.49%、橡胶+1.00%、焦炭-3.40%、焦煤 -0.14%、铁矿-0.63%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青开工率 环比+0.01pct、-0.90pct、-2.3pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格环比 分别+0.77%、+0.00%，钛白粉毛利润为-1744 元/吨，平板玻璃本周开工率 73.89%。 工业品链条：半钢胎开工率处于五年同期中位。（1）本周主要大宗商品价 格表 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：普钢布局期，盈利率修复或带动板块 上行 行业评级：看好 2025 年 12 月 28 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年12月28日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 964 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 3% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 657 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 4% | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 678 | 3 . | 2% | 27 . | 4% | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 ...