Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

Group 1 - The overall economic performance of China's basic chemical industry showed a steady improvement in the first half of the year, with 535 companies reporting a total revenue of 1,352.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78.371 billion yuan, up 0.28% [1] - Among 31 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, indicating a continuous optimization of the industrial structure and steady development of new productive forces within the basic chemical sector [1] Group 2 - Certain sub-industries, such as potash fertilizer, modified plastics, fluorochemicals, and others, experienced significant profit growth, benefiting from factors like reduced overseas supply and strong global demand [2] - Potash fertilizer companies collectively achieved a revenue of 13.129 billion yuan, a 3.57% increase, and a net profit of 5.663 billion yuan, soaring by 39.69% [2] - The fluorochemical sector saw a remarkable increase in revenue for refrigerant companies, totaling 33.488 billion yuan, a 29.96% rise, and a net profit of 4.575 billion yuan, up 137.42% [2] Group 3 - The modified plastics sector reported robust growth, with 16 companies generating a revenue of 60.319 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 29.64% [3] - This growth was driven by strong demand in emerging markets and technological advancements in high-performance materials [3] Group 4 - Despite positive performances in some areas, supply-demand mismatches remain a significant challenge for high-quality development in the industry [4] - The carbon black industry faced low operating rates and profitability issues, with five companies reporting a revenue of 21.295 billion yuan, a 1.52% increase, but a net profit drop of 24% to 0.078 billion yuan [4] - The titanium dioxide sector experienced a revenue decline of 10.92% to 30.65 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 38.55% to 1.962 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - The tire industry is grappling with rising raw material costs and intense competition, leading to a revenue drop of 11.24% to 101.613 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 21.07% to 6.85 billion yuan [4] - The government is promoting a "de-involution" strategy to eliminate unfair competition and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities, aiming for higher quality development in the chemical industry [5] - This policy is expected to alleviate issues of overcapacity and chaotic competition in certain sub-industries, leading to a potential phase of improvement in industry conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquid caustic soda market shows stable prices in multiple regions, with a notable price increase for 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, despite limited profitability for chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction volume in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is acceptable today, with prices stable in many areas and an increase in the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong [1]. - In Shandong, the main transaction price for 32% liquid caustic soda is between 770-865 RMB/ton, while for 50% liquid caustic soda, it is between 1270-1290 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall supply and demand situation in other regions remains stable, although some markets see a decline in the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at current high prices [1]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of this Thursday, the national average operating load of sample enterprises is 85.44%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week, due to increased maintenance and production cuts in chlor-alkali facilities [2]. - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China increased to 173,300 tons, up 0.70% from September 10, driven by reduced production and active downstream procurement [2]. - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda rose to 36,600 tons, an increase of 8.28% from September 10, indicating a higher overall inventory level due to low downstream purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The market continues to trend weakly, with increased supply and higher operating rates among sample manufacturers [3]. - The recent decline in domestic alumina prices has narrowed profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises, leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the North China region [3]. - In Shandong, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be a delay in releasing liquid caustic soda inventory, and with high supply levels, there is a possibility of further price reductions [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - During the week of September 15 - 19, 2025, the caustic soda futures price stopped falling and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.16%. Next week, as the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the operating rate is expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price rebounded this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH101) rose 81 yuan/ton to 2641 yuan/ton, a 3.16% increase. The highest price was 2657 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2548 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 114,000 lots, a decrease of 4,712 lots from last week. The trading volume increased by 316,000 lots to 1.852 million lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Except for the near - month SH510 contract, which declined, other caustic soda futures contracts generally rose this week, and the open interest of the main contract SH601 decreased [4]. - **Related Market**: The trading volume of caustic soda 01 contract options increased compared to last week, with call options performing stronger than put options. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2320 - 2680 point range [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped 70 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.05%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price rebounded while the spot price declined, and the basis turned negative, reaching - 141 yuan/ton as of Friday [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: As of September 18, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.9%, a 1.5% decrease from last week. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 378,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.02% increase from last week and an 18.22% increase year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 20.15%, a 0.75% increase from last week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily price of the main caustic soda contract SH601 gradually increased, and the trading volume increased compared to last week [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the caustic soda futures price strengthened, and the open interest of the main contract decreased. The alumina operating rate remained at 84.0%. The non - aluminum demand showed that the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.52%, a 1.75% increase from last week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, the same as last week. Next week, as the previously maintained devices resume operation, the supply is expected to increase. Considering the high inventory and sufficient supply in Shandong before the National Day holiday, the spot price may continue to be weak. Future market trends need to focus on the purchasing volume of the main downstream and device fluctuations [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The PVC market is volatile with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant, social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price. The烧碱 market has seen a continuous decline in spot prices, with demand support showing signs of loosening, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm and new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton (-12), with an East China basis of -178 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -98 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide price was 2,890 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+10), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was - 4.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 76.91% (-3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 72.00% (-5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.43% (-3.96%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2,604 yuan/ton (-37), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 104 yuan/ton (+37) [1][2]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (-90.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,381.25 yuan/ton (-56.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.83 tons (+2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.18 tons (-0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 65.76% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.52% (+1.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Although downstream demand has increased, the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has been continuously decreasing. Production may increase slightly, and demand support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm during the peak season and the start - up rhythm of new alumina plants in Guangxi [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

氯碱周报 S H ：山东区域 库存继续累 库 ， 不排除降价风险 V ：供需矛盾较难解决 ， 价格上行存压制 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：本周烧碱盘面止跌企稳，周五大幅反弹。下周预计供应量增加，企业样本厂家开工上调。主力下游方面，近期海内外氧化铝价格持续下跌导致国内氧化铝企业 利润空间不断缩窄，现货价格支撑力度偏弱。受山东主力下游采购价走跌下游采买谨慎影响，华北区域库存上行；华东区域企业检修及降负装置尚未恢复，货源偏紧，且非铝需求 刚需跟进，库存呈现下滑。下周来看，山东市场由于国庆长假临近，短期省内液碱库存需要时间释放，且目前供应高位，主要下游卸货不畅下，不排除继续价格下调的可能。 ◼ PVC主要观点：本周pvc盘面受到宏观转暖提振企稳反弹。但基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，供应端方面，下周检修结束企业较多，产量预期增加。需求端，下游制品开工率提 升有限，部分已经完成备货，因此对高价抵触，采购积极性一般。成本端原料电石维持上行趋势，乙烯价格维稳，成本端维持底部支撑。预计9-10月旺 ...

Company Overview - Ningxia Yinglite Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Shizuishan City, Ningxia, and was established on November 12, 1996, with its listing date on November 20, 1996 [1] - The company’s main business includes the production and sales of calcium carbide, lime nitrogen, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, and other related products, as well as electricity and heat production [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -156 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.92% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 22, Yinglite's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 8.21 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.239 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 5.53%, but it has decreased by 4.53% over the last five trading days, 9.58% over the last twenty days, and 7.44% over the last sixty days [1] - The number of shareholders as of September 10 is 23,400, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period, with an average of 12,973 circulating shares per person, an increase of 0.89% [2] Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 2.2172 million yuan from main funds, with large orders buying 2.3678 million yuan (12.39% of total) and selling 4.5851 million yuan (23.99% of total) [1] Business Segmentation - The main revenue composition of Yinglite includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products (2.35%), with calcium carbide contributing 2.24% and electricity accounting for 0.67% [1] - The company belongs to the Shenwan industry classification of basic chemicals - chemical raw materials - chlor-alkali [1]