Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7][93]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts on crude oil prices, which have been rising significantly, affecting the chemical sector [2][89]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw a decline of 2.49% in the fourth week of June, lagging behind the Shanghai A-share index by 1.98 percentage points [3][15]. - Key stocks that performed well included Keheng Co. (+30.3%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.43%), while stocks like Jiaao Environmental and Hongyang New Materials faced significant declines [3][15]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of June, five sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced gains, with the top performers being oil trading (+7.24%) and inorganic salts (+4.2%). Conversely, 26 sub-industries saw declines, with daily chemical products dropping by 8.92% [4][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector was reported at 24.02 times, which is lower than the average PE of 11.88 times since 2015 [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report noted significant price increases for several products, with Brent crude oil rising by 13.68% and PX by 10.53%. In contrast, liquid chlorine saw a drastic drop of 60% [5][23]. - The report also highlighted substantial changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by 54.61% and the PX (naphtha-based) spread decreasing by 144.12% [5][39]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes included a decrease in polyester chips by 19.44% and an increase in epoxy propane by 16.49% [6][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading compound fertilizer companies, specifically recommending Xinyangfeng [6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing the mid-year reporting window, continuing to recommend downstream high prosperity and western structural prosperity varieties [2][3] - The real estate sector is currently in a slow adjustment phase, with a focus on promoting market stabilization from both supply and demand sides [2][14] - The report highlights potential overperformance in Q2 for companies in the fiberglass, coatings, and ester chemical sectors, suggesting continued focus on these areas [3][20] Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.45%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 1.68%. However, the fiberglass and glass sectors achieved positive returns [12][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaisheng New Energy (+18.0%), Zhenan Technology (+17.7%), and Quartz Shares (+14.9%) [12][17] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with demand weakening due to seasonal factors [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market showed weak overall transactions, with prices declining [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali roving remained stable, with prices slightly down [19] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include: - China National Materials (17.58 CNY, Buy) - Three Trees (34.70 CNY, Buy) - Honghe Technology (13.68 CNY, Hold) - Qingsong Construction (3.59 CNY, Buy) - Gaozheng Mining (32.60 CNY, Hold) - Tibet Tianlu (8.07 CNY, Hold) - Shafeng Cement (8.03 CNY, Buy) [9][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 1.42% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 and the Wind All A Index, which declined by 0.45% and 1.07% respectively [4] - The report suggests that strategic infrastructure projects in the central and western regions may become a focus for investors, particularly in areas like hydropower and major construction projects [4] - The real estate sector is nearing a clearing phase, leading to improved supply dynamics, which may benefit leading companies in the industry [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price drop in cement, with the national average price at 356.8 RMB/ton, down 3.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and 36.0 RMB/ton from the same period last year [4][20] - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last week but an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [25] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The average shipment rate for cement is 44.0%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week and 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The report anticipates that the cement industry will maintain a higher profit margin compared to last year due to improved supply-demand balance and ongoing policy support for domestic demand [12][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report indicates that the profitability of glass fiber remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [13] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance, benefiting leading companies with strong product structures [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions and diverse business growth [15] 3. Renovation and Building Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in the renovation sector [16] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from government subsidies are recommended for investment consideration [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the optimization of real estate policies in Guangzhou, which includes the cancellation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates to stimulate housing consumption [6][20] - The report highlights a decline in cement shipments and an increase in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand in the real estate sector [7][24] - Recommendations include focusing on domestic substitution chains and African chains, with leading companies being the main investment theme for the year [9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Policy - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates. The city aims to support housing consumption and urban renewal projects, with a fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan for the renovation of urban villages and old communities by 2025 [6][20] Cement Market - In early June, the average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions was 45.5%, down approximately 2.3 percentage points month-on-month and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, reflecting weak demand [7][24][25] - The national average price of cement was 365.32 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.23 yuan per ton month-on-month and a decrease of 29.03 yuan per ton year-on-year [25] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market showed a weak price trend, with a total inventory of 60.45 million weight boxes, an increase of 34,000 weight boxes week-on-week. The production capacity utilization rate was 81.56% [8][37] - The average price of glass was 71.15 yuan per weight box, down 0.44 yuan per weight box month-on-month and down 19.00 yuan per weight box year-on-year [37] Recommended Companies - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials, Meijia Xincai, and Puyang Huicheng are recommended due to their strong positions in the market. For the African chain, Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a leading player with advantages in production and branding [9] - The report also suggests focusing on companies with strong business models and growth potential, such as Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby, which are expected to benefit from urban renewal policies [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][77]. Core Views - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for new policies to stimulate growth. Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for increased government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including land repurchase and urban renewal initiatives [1][3]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with regional variations. Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in enterprise shipment rates to 45.7% [2][24]. - Future price trends are expected to remain volatile due to insufficient demand support [2][24]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1229.90 CNY/ton, down 1.63% week-on-week. Both supply and demand are weak, leading to high inventory levels [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market is also experiencing low demand, with prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels declining [2][41]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali roving yarn is stable, while electronic yarn prices are experiencing slight increases due to tight supply. The average price for non-alkali roving yarn is 3687.50 CNY/ton, down 4.08% year-on-year [2][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and urban renewal demands, recommending companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials [3][5]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [3][5]. - In the construction sector, state strategic projects are expected to boost demand, with recommendations for companies like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [3][5]. Real Estate Data - Recent data shows a decrease in new housing sales, with a 1.2% drop in the average transaction area for new homes in major cities [67][68]. - The report notes a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials industry [2] Core Views - The real estate chain is stabilizing due to continued policy support, and industrial transformation is aiding fundamental recovery [1] - The cement market is experiencing weak demand and price fluctuations, while the float glass market is seeing price declines and weak shipments [1][12][13] - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from ongoing "good housing" construction initiatives, with leading companies in sub-sectors maintaining their advantages [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Views - Cement Industry: Demand remains poor, with prices continuing to decline. The national average cement price fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant price drops in regions like North China and South China [12][22] - Float Glass Industry: Prices are declining, with the national average price at 1200 RMB/ton, down 7.14 RMB/ton from the previous week. The market is facing weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior [13] - Fiberglass Industry: The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, while electronic yarn prices are seeing slight increases due to tight supply [14] - Consumption Building Materials: The government is emphasizing affordable housing and youth apartment supply, which is expected to boost demand for consumption building materials [15][16] 2. Industry Dynamics - Macro: The e-commerce logistics index in May rose to 111.6 points, indicating a steady increase in supply and demand [20] - Real Estate: Policies are being implemented to enhance community services and support flexible employment in housing funds [20] - Infrastructure: Investment in railway and civil aviation construction is expected to grow, with significant projects planned for unconventional water development [21] 3. Recommended Stocks - Weixing New Materials: Transitioning to a system integration service provider with a focus on risk control and sustainable growth [17] - Mona Lisa: Aiming for high-end market positioning with continuous improvement in operational quality [18] - Keshun Co.: Expected recovery in profitability as the waterproofing industry consolidates [19] - North New Materials: Expanding globally with a focus on gypsum board and related products [19] - Dongpeng Holdings: Diversifying product offerings to meet comprehensive consumer needs [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a continued contraction in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a substantial year-on-year decline in revenue and profit for 2024. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability [1][19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Industry Overview - In 2024, the building materials industry achieved revenue of 587.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.51 billion yuan, down 47.94% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was more pronounced than the revenue drop, primarily due to an increase in expense ratios and credit impairment losses [1][19] - The overall gross margin for the building materials sector in 2024 was 19.93%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased to 14.10%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [1][28] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue of 127.64 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.89 billion yuan, a decline of 45.08%. The drop in net profit was greater than the revenue decline due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [2][45] - In 2025 Q1, the consumer building materials sector showed signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow and gross margins for certain sub-segments, such as boards and coatings [2][12] 3. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector reported revenue of 55.60 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, down 46.99%. However, the decline in profit was less severe than in previous years, indicating a gradual recovery [3][13] - In 2025 Q1, the fiberglass sector saw a revenue increase of 25.24% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 165.66%, attributed to price adjustments and improved demand [9][12] 4. Cement Sector - The cement sector faced a revenue drop of 21.81% in 2024, totaling 308.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.83 billion yuan, down 40.49%. However, by 2025 Q1, the sector's revenue decline narrowed to 6.93%, and net profit increased by 119.22% [10][14] - The gross margin for the cement sector improved in 2025 Q1, reaching 15.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points year-on-year [10][54] 5. Glass Sector - The glass sector's revenue in 2024 was 51.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.59%, with a net profit of 0.29 billion yuan, down 93.22%. The sector continued to struggle with high inventory levels and declining prices [11][12] - In 2025 Q1, the glass sector's revenue was 10.52 billion yuan, down 19.51% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 0.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.16% [11][12] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, which are expected to see improvements in demand and profitability. Key companies to watch include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong [12][14] - For the fiberglass sector, the report highlights the potential for significant earnings growth in 2025, particularly for companies with overseas production lines [13][14] - In the cement sector, the report notes that prices are still at historical lows, but improvements in supply-side policies could alleviate industry supply-demand imbalances [14]

继山东省、天津市等地之后，四川省也实现建设项目大气污染物总量指标跨区域置换——日前，记者从 成都市生态环境局获悉，成都市温江区与青白江区已达成《大气污染物总量指标批量互换协议》，双方 将进行氮氧化物与挥发性有机物总量指标跨区域置换，其中90吨挥发性有机物总量指标从温江区流向青 白江区，60吨氮氧化物总量指标反向置换至温江区。 根据两地达成的协议，温江区置换来的氮氧化物总量指标，将用于保障成都西电中特大型特种变产线、 四川海思科制药新建锅炉、四川锦丰纸业技改等项目落地，总投资超30亿元；青白江区置换来的挥发性 有机物总量指标，将用来支持巨石集团高性能玻纤智能制造基地、秀德畅盈碳纤维全产业链一体化产业 基地、中环院西南中试基地等重大项目，总投资额约150亿元。 我国实施污染物排放总量控制制度，规定把主要污染物排放总量指标作为建设项目环评审批的前置条 件。建设项目大气污染物总量指标原则上来源于各地通过各类减排措施形成并核定的减排量。在不少业 内人士看来，此次置换为重大项目因环保指标"卡脖子"找到新的解决方案，让有限环境资源在区域间高 效流动，实现精准匹配供需。这也是成都市在环境要素市场化配置方面迈出的重要一步。 以 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the US May CPI and core CPI were both below expectations, suggesting that overall inflationary pressure remains moderate. Following the data release, the market slightly adjusted its expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating two cuts within the year, with the first expected in September. It is noted that tariffs have not yet fully manifested their impact on inflation, and risks of inflationary pressure still exist in the US [3]. Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes a "barbell strategy" in fixed income investments, focusing on both technology and domestic demand defensive themes. The previous period's barbell strategy yielded a return of 15.98% for selected convertible bonds, with all holdings generating positive returns. The report suggests maintaining high-rated large base bonds while increasing holdings in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds and quality targets in popular themes [4]. Group 3: Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is currently in a bottoming process, with cement companies experiencing a 16.99% decline in revenue and a 19.99% drop in net profit in 2024. The industry is relying on staggered production halts to stabilize prices, which often leads to increased average losses before prices recover. The glass industry also faced significant declines, with revenues down 11.1% and net profits down 88.6% in 2024. However, there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly in the glass fiber sector, which has shown improved profitability in recent quarters [5][6][7]. Group 4: Electronics Sector - The report on Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) highlights its diversified layout in storage, MCU, and sensor fields, with storage revenue expected to exceed 70% in 2024. The company is positioned as the second-largest player in the global NOR Flash market and is anticipated to see significant growth in its DRAM business. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.36 billion, 11.46 billion, and 13.55 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.46 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan [8].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.09 6 月开始逐步迎来低基数期 [Table_Industry] 建材 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) 花健祎(分析师) 巫恺洋(研究助理) | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | --- | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | 本报告导读： 水泥行业价格调整后开始出现企稳信号，消费建材改善竞争环境和盈利还在继续。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 水泥：本周(0531-0606)全国水泥市场价格环比回落 1.2%。价格回落 区域主要是山西、上海、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南和广东等地，幅 度 10-20 元/吨；价格推涨地区有江苏、上海、浙江和广西地区，幅 度 20-30 元/吨。六月初，受高考、农忙和高温等多重不利因素影响， 国内 ...