格隆汇9月4日｜国盛证券研报指出，中国巨石上半年实现归母净利润16.87亿元，同比增长75.51%，其 中非流动资产处置损失等非经常性损失金额1414万元，去年同期为3.33亿元，对应扣非后归母净利润 17.01亿元，同比大幅增长170.74%。单Q2来看，公司取得收入46.3亿元，同比增长6.28%，实现归母净 利润9.57亿元，同比增长56.58%。中国巨石是国内玻纤粗纱及电子厚布领域的龙头企业，成本及结构优 势深厚，头部地位稳固。预计2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为36.4亿、38.6亿、47.2亿，对应估值分 别为16倍、15倍、13倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the fiberglass industry and effective operational strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 9.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.687 billion yuan, up 75.51% [1]. - For Q2 2025, total revenue was 4.630 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.28%, with a net profit of 957 million yuan, an increase of 56.58% [1]. - The mid-year profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 1.70 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 680 million yuan, which accounts for 40.34% of the net profit [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The fiberglass industry has seen improvements in supply and demand, with leading companies optimizing production capacity and product structure, moving away from intense competition [1]. - Demand from key downstream applications, such as wind power and thermoplastics, has increased, leading to a notable rise in fiberglass product prices [1]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The company is capitalizing on the structural growth opportunities in the wind power market and continuously optimizing its product mix [1]. - The marketing strategy focuses on "increment, stable price, recovery price, and price adjustment," effectively achieving simultaneous growth in volume and price for fiberglass yarn and electronic cloth [1]. - The company is advancing the construction of production bases to enhance quality, efficiency, and stable sales growth [1]. Group 4: Profitability and Competitive Advantage - The company's gross margin improved by 10.71 percentage points to 32.21%, benefiting from multiple rounds of price increases [2]. - The comprehensive expense ratio decreased by 1.29 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 6.54 percentage points to 19.30%, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the fiberglass industry, with strong scale and cost advantages, and is focused on high-end product transformation [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.80 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.06 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 13x [3]. - The ongoing trend of price stabilization and recovery in the industry is expected to support the company's earnings resilience, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed significant growth, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 17.70%, 75.51%, and 170.74% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - The increase in demand for fiberglass products, particularly in the wind power sector, has driven sales growth, with the company achieving a sales volume of 1.5822 million tons of fiberglass yarn and 485 million meters of electronic cloth, representing year-on-year increases of 4.0% and 5.9% [2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 10.71 percentage points to 32.21%, while the operating cash flow surged by 534.54% year-on-year to 1.441 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 9.109 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.687 billion yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 4.630 billion yuan in Q2 [1][5]. - The company announced a cash dividend of 1.70 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 681 million yuan, which accounts for 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a strategy of "increment, stabilize price, recover price, and adjust price," leading to a recovery in fiberglass prices from last year's lows [2]. - The overseas business has shown significant improvement, with the Egypt plant achieving a net profit of 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.3% [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the fiberglass industry, with projected net profits for the company of 3.606 billion yuan, 4.043 billion yuan, and 4.446 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 1H25, with revenue and net profit significantly increasing year-on-year, driven by various factors including pricing improvements and operational efficiencies [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue increased by 17.7% year-on-year to 9.1 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 76% to 1.7 billion yuan [1]. - In Q2 25, revenue grew by 6.3% year-on-year to 4.6 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 57% to 960 million yuan [1]. - The company achieved a net operating cash flow of 1.4 billion yuan in 1H25, compared to 200 million yuan in 1H24, indicating improved cash flow management [3]. Sales and Production - The company sold approximately 1.58 million tons of raw yarn in 1H25, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase despite a high base in 1H24 [2]. - The average price of electronic cloth in Q2 25 was 4.23 yuan/meter, showing a slight increase due to price adjustments by leading companies [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company reduced its expense ratio by 1 percentage point to 9% in 1H25, primarily due to lower leasing costs and optimized management expenses [3]. - The profitability of overseas factories improved, with the Egypt factory generating revenue of 970 million yuan and a net profit margin of 20% [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook for its position in the global fiberglass market, with expectations of over 500,000 tons of new fiberglass capacity in 2025 [4]. - The strategy focuses on high-end products and overseas bases, with approximately 34% of total fiberglass sales coming from exports and overseas operations in 1H25 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.88 yuan and 1.01 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 14.9 yuan, indicating an 11% upside potential from the current stock price [5].

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI computing power is driving the upgrade of PCBs towards high-frequency and high-speed applications, leading to an explosion in demand for specialty electronic fabrics [3][5] - Specialty electronic fabrics are high-performance woven materials that optimize chemical composition and manufacturing processes to achieve specific electrical, thermal, or mechanical properties, supporting high-frequency signal transmission and reducing energy loss [3][10] - The market for AI/HPC server PCBs (excluding packaging substrates) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.5% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than other sectors [3][10] Group 2 - Low-DK electronic fabrics, characterized by low dielectric constant (DK) and low dielectric loss (DF), are crucial for AI servers and data center switches, enhancing signal efficiency in high-frequency environments [10][11] - The demand for Low-DK fabrics is projected to grow rapidly in 2024, driven by the transition to low-dielectric PCBs in AI server architectures and the global data center upgrade [10][11] - The global Low-DK electronic fabric market is expected to exceed $200 million by 2025 and reach $530 million by 2031, with a CAGR of 18.7% [11][16] Group 3 - Quartz fiber fabric (Q fabric), a high-performance material, is expected to see strong demand growth due to its application in advanced packaging technologies for AI hardware and data center switches [12][19] - The third-generation low-dielectric electronic fabric, Q fabric, utilizes high-purity silica to achieve ultra-low dielectric constant and loss, presenting significant technical barriers to mass production [12][19] - The core mission of Low-CTE electronic fabrics is to address thermal management issues in advanced chip packaging, with demand surging due to the explosive growth of AI computing power [19][20] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in the specialty electronic fabric sector, responding to the growing demand from AI computing power upgrades [22][24] - Key suppliers of specialty electronic fabrics include Japanese, Taiwanese, and mainland Chinese companies, with domestic firms rapidly increasing production capabilities to meet market needs [22][24] - The competitive advantage of specialty electronic fabric suppliers lies in their ability to quickly innovate product performance and scale up production [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a continued contraction in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a substantial year-on-year decline in revenue and profit for 2024. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability [1][19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Industry Overview - In 2024, the building materials industry achieved revenue of 587.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.51 billion yuan, down 47.94% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was more pronounced than the revenue drop, primarily due to an increase in expense ratios and credit impairment losses [1][19] - The overall gross margin for the building materials sector in 2024 was 19.93%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased to 14.10%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [1][28] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue of 127.64 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.89 billion yuan, a decline of 45.08%. The drop in net profit was greater than the revenue decline due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [2][45] - In 2025 Q1, the consumer building materials sector showed signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow and gross margins for certain sub-segments, such as boards and coatings [2][12] 3. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector reported revenue of 55.60 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, down 46.99%. However, the decline in profit was less severe than in previous years, indicating a gradual recovery [3][13] - In 2025 Q1, the fiberglass sector saw a revenue increase of 25.24% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 165.66%, attributed to price adjustments and improved demand [9][12] 4. Cement Sector - The cement sector faced a revenue drop of 21.81% in 2024, totaling 308.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.83 billion yuan, down 40.49%. However, by 2025 Q1, the sector's revenue decline narrowed to 6.93%, and net profit increased by 119.22% [10][14] - The gross margin for the cement sector improved in 2025 Q1, reaching 15.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points year-on-year [10][54] 5. Glass Sector - The glass sector's revenue in 2024 was 51.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.59%, with a net profit of 0.29 billion yuan, down 93.22%. The sector continued to struggle with high inventory levels and declining prices [11][12] - In 2025 Q1, the glass sector's revenue was 10.52 billion yuan, down 19.51% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 0.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.16% [11][12] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, which are expected to see improvements in demand and profitability. Key companies to watch include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong [12][14] - For the fiberglass sector, the report highlights the potential for significant earnings growth in 2025, particularly for companies with overseas production lines [13][14] - In the cement sector, the report notes that prices are still at historical lows, but improvements in supply-side policies could alleviate industry supply-demand imbalances [14]