Core Viewpoint - The "Three Barrel Oil" groups emphasize energy security and transformation for the upcoming years, aiming to enhance their core oil and gas operations while striving to become world-class energy resource groups [4][5][6][7]. Group Summaries China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - CNPC aims to achieve high-quality development by 2030, focusing on value creation and modern governance while advancing state-owned enterprise reforms [5]. - The company emphasizes its strategic mission of "building value projects for a better future" and plans to implement five major strategies to enhance core competitiveness [5]. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec's "second entrepreneurship" is a strategic choice to address new challenges, focusing on high-quality development as the central task during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The company aims to establish a new industrial pattern characterized by "one foundation, two wings, three chains, and four innovations" [6]. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - CNOOC plans to strengthen its core oil and gas operations, enhance exploration breakthroughs, and accelerate overseas production [8]. - The company is also focusing on refining, chemical, and new materials industries while strategically developing "electricity, hydrogen, and carbon" businesses [8]. - CNOOC aims to improve its technological innovation capabilities and digital intelligence levels [8].

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开工前的"三查四定"，在王政伟眼中从来不是走过场。从微小的密封瑕疵，到可能引起误操作的模糊标 识，10余处潜在问题被他逐一揪出，实现整改闭环。"缺陷就像一道口子，今天不焊上，明天就可能被 撕开。"他说。 "调整伴热策略，保持管线温度在10摄氏度到20摄氏度之间。"王政伟一边对内操下达指令，一边抓起安 全帽冲向现场。 此后，每隔半小时，王政伟都会出现在装置区内那段引发剂管线旁。他伸手触摸管壁温度，抬头核对现 场仪表，确保调整后的管线在严寒中安然无恙。 不久，对讲机传来内操清晰的声音："王师傅，流量稳住了。" 这时，中控屏幕上的曲线，已回归一条平稳坚定的直线。一次可能引发质量波动与安全风险的隐患，在 萌芽状态被彻底消除。 "'O'是闭环，是圆满，是能够放心交出去的成果；'C'是缺口，是隐患，是心里悬着的石头。在我手里 过的活，要做到完美无缺的'O'，绝不当留有遗憾的'C'。"这是王政伟的工作哲学。 （来源：工人日报） 数九寒天，北国江城的户外滴水成冰，吉林石化公司合成树脂（碳纤维）厂20万吨/年ABS本体法装置 机柜间内，气氛热烈。第五ABS车间专职培训师王政伟的目光，如扫描仪般来回扫视着中控屏幕上的每 一条曲线 ...

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国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年2月8日 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：短期偏强，地缘问题仍是关键 | | 近期市场仍然维持高波动，价格在周一下跌之后持续回弹。高硫方面，地缘问题仍然没有得到解决，中东地区随时可能因冲突发生而出现断供， | | --- | --- | | | 现货市场仍然表现强势，新加坡市场的成交升贴水持续维持高位。在地缘冲突得到明确解决路径之前，市场的担忧情绪将持续存在，对现货价 | | | 格有 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of pure benzene and styrene is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the contraction of EB profit. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie capacity. The restart progress of key plants after the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the post - festival balance sheet. The situation of pure benzene will gradually improve after the second quarter, and it is difficult for China's pure benzene imports to increase in 2026. Recently, focus on the contraction of EB profit and the opportunity of PX - EB [3][68]. - The EB processing fee has reached a phased peak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - term profit contraction [3][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure Benzene Domestic Supply**: In December, 110,000 tons of pure benzene plants were under maintenance, and the maintenance volume in January remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Major plants with large - scale maintenance include Sinochem Quanzhou, LIDONG, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production loads after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang plant [2][67]. - **Pure Benzene Import Supply**: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact of 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [2][67]. Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of styrene plants were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. After December, the plant operation gradually resumed, and attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical plant. The demand for the three downstream products of styrene (3S) exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle [3][68]. - **Caprolactam**: Negative feedback in CPL has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is estimated that 40,000 tons of plants will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January, mainly in Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, Xuyang Cangzhou, etc. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of plants [3][68]. - **Phenol**: The operation rate is gradually rising. In December, 30,000 tons of plants were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of the new Shandong Ruilin plant may be postponed [3][68]. - **Aniline**: In December, 70,000 tons of aniline plants were under maintenance, mainly including Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, and Chongqing Basf, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation rate in January may be lower than expected [3][68]. Valuation - **Absolute Price Valuation**: Based on the crude oil price of $70 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3][68]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The market will mainly oscillate before the Spring Festival [3][68]. - **Cross - Variety Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of bottom - fishing PX - EB, that is, buy BZ and short EB [3][68].

Core Viewpoint - The global AI industry is entering a second phase, leading to a shift in the performance of the technology chain, making it complex to determine which companies will succeed [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of recovery in overseas manufacturing is strengthening, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of AI investment towards infrastructure represented by energy [1] - A quiet revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI is beginning, with the return of funds from export enterprises signaling a resonance between domestic and external demand [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The revaluation logic of physical assets is shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and stabilizing demand, focusing on commodities such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and rare earths [1] - The Chinese equipment export chain, which has a global comparative advantage and confirmed cyclical bottom, includes sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, and wafer manufacturing [1] - Domestic manufacturing sectors that are at the bottom of the cycle include petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide [1] - The consumption recovery channel is driven by the return of funds, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel entry, focusing on sectors like aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverages [1] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns [1]

图1：山西省硫酸产量分月（当月值）统计图 摘要：【图】2025年9月山西省硫酸产量数据 2025年9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：7.8 万吨 同比增长：8.6% 增速较上一年同期变化：低33.3个百分点 据统计，2025年9月山西省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比增长了8.6%，达7.8万吨，增速较 上一年同期低33.3个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高3.0个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫 酸产量923.86758万吨的比重为0.8%。 详见下图： 据统计，2025年1－9月，山西省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了32.9%，达57.7万 吨，增速较上一年同期低147.9个百分点，增速较同期全国低38.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 硫酸产量8329.56708万吨的比重为0.7%。详见下图： 图2：山西省硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计图 2025年1-9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：57.7 万吨 同比增长：-32.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：低147.9个百分点 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元。 ...